Paul is a better player than Roy. I love Roy and, in fact, think he could potentially have a Hall of Fame career...but Paul is guaranteed to be an inner circle Hall of Famer, assuming no major injuries. I would certainly trade Roy for Paul (though, in the short term, Paul wouldn't exactly fit well with Miller...but the chance to get Paul is still too great to let that stand in the way).
Of course, it would be nice to get Paul without giving up Roy or Oden. I think a lot of Aldridge, but A. you have to give up something to get something and B. I think ultimately Oden will be the more valuable player.
Aldridge, Fernandez, Bayless, Outlaw and draft picks? They could play Aldridge at center, giving them a very talented front court of Aldridge/West. Outlaw is a better option now than a fading Stojakovic and Rudy gives them a talented and exciting backcourt player while Bayless gives them a prospect to dream on.
This would be a perfect example of a consolidation deal to me...Portland gives up a lot of talent, but ends up with one big-time player that significantly upgrades their top three players.
Playing around with the Trade Checker, though, it's pretty hard to put together a deal due to Paul's BYC status. I didn't spend too much time trying to make it work, so I'm just talking about the outlines of what I'd like to see, not specific details to make the numbers work. Aldridge/Bayless/Fernandez/Outlaw for Paul/Armstrong came close.
In the short-term, though, it creates significant problems. Three point guards (though, I'd push Blake to back up shooting guard, since his role is mostly to shoot from the perimeter)...that still leaves Miller as a backup in every way. I think he might have a problem with playing only 18 minutes at most. It also leaves Portland with no power forward of note. This big an overhaul would require further moves.
