Game Thread GAME# 31: BLAZERS @ NUGGETS - FEBRUARY 23, 2021 - TUESDAY, 7:00, TNT

[Tince]

So this chart is about our offense? If it is, it's bullshit. We have the 5th overall team 3P% at 38.4%.

If this was about defense and the amount of threes that we contest, that wouldn't make any sense because we know that we would be like the lowest on the list of threes our opponents take that we contest.

"But it could be better!"

We could be 1st in offense, and the style wouldn't be good enough for some. I feel like some people would rather lose pretty than win ugly.

 

[Tince]

If only our offense could be as good as the 3 teams with the lowest share of contested 3's.

OKC, Memphis, and New York - The 24th, 28th, and 29th best offensive ratings in the league.

I'll put this in the same bin I put "assists are important" and our "offensive rating is worse in the playoffs". I don't get the infatuation with charts that don't correlate to anything significant.

 

[Strenuus]

And this is why you were wrong:

View attachment 37142

We lost.

Just because we didn't lose by 20 doesn't negate the fact we lost.

 

[BonesJones]

If only our offense could be as good as the 3 teams with the lowest share of contested 3's.

OKC, Memphis, and New York - The 24th, 28th, and 29th best offensive ratings in the league.

I'll put this in the same bin I put "assists are important" and our "offensive rating is worse in the playoffs". I don't get the infatuation with charts that don't correlate to anything significant.

So wait - You don't think open shots are better than contested ones? Yikes. You don't think having a good offense in the playoffs is important? Okay man.

 

[royo]

Nothing is correlated to nothing. Just shoot those 3s. If they don't fall, you say they just didn't fall. What you don't understand?

 

[mook]

Mello has not won a game in Denver since he left Denver in 2011.

So once again Portland is preserving his legacy.

 

[mook]

We shoot a lot of contested threes because we have a lot of really good three point shooters and little else.

If I were game planning against Portland, here's how I'd coach. "Play tight around the three point line and it's ok to get beaten in other areas. They are going to give Melo about 7-10 midrange shots that he'll generally do poorly on, and Dame will take about 4 drives to the rim that we'll just live with. Don't foul him, or he'll keep doing it. If he's not getting whistles he'll focus more on threes. They aren't afraid at all of taking midrange jumpers, which is ok if you can contest a little. If Portland doesn't hit a lot of threes, their defense is so fucking awful that if we have a good offense we'll win. But if it becomes a three point shoot out we're probably fucked. So do NOT leave anybody but Jones on the three point line."

Unless Little emerges as a real offensive threat at driving to the rim, there is no game plan we can initiate that results in us taking fewer contested threes. We just don't have the personnel.

 

[blazerkor]

We shoot a lot of contested threes because we have a lot of really good three point shooters and little else.

If I were game planning against Portland, here's how I'd coach. "Play tight around the three point line and it's ok to get beaten in other areas. They are going to give Melo about 7-10 midrange shots that he'll generally do poorly on, and Dame will take about 4 drives to the rim that we'll just live with. They aren't afraid at all of taking midrange jumpers, which is ok if you can contest a little. If Portland doesn't hit a lot of threes, their defense is so fucking awful that if we have a good offense we'll win. But if it becomes a three point shoot out we're probably fucked. So do NOT leave anybody but Jones on the three point line."

Dame will take what you give him. He can feast on drives to the hoop until the opponent decides to stop him and let him get off jumpers, hell he just feasted on assists tonight. Also that "anybody buy Jones" stuff hasn't been working out so well lately, he's shooting 37% from three over the last ten games and has been getting even better recently.

 

[mook]

Dame will take what you give him. He can feast on drives to the hoop until the opponent decides to stop him and let him get off jumpers, hell he just feasted on assists tonight. Also that "anybody buy Jones" stuff hasn't been working out so well lately, he's shooting 37% from three over the last ten games and has been getting even better recently.

It does feel like Jones is improving, doesn't it? Very nice to see. He easily takes the fewest contested threes--mostly from the corners.

If I were coaching against Portland, I'd still leave him open before anyone else out there though. He's just not that scary compared to guys like Gary or Dame or Ant or Covington or Melo. Those other guys will gun without a second of hesitation with just a small gap. Jones just isn't on that level.

As for Dame, well, it's not like I'd have a plan to actually stop him. That's what makes him a superstar. You can't. You can game plan to beat his team, though. Don't foul him, contest threes, rely on Portland playing shitty defense. Stick to those three principles and if you have a good team you'll probably win.

 

[BonesJones]

We shoot a lot of contested threes because we have a lot of really good three point shooters and little else.

If I were game planning against Portland, here's how I'd coach. "Play tight around the three point line and it's ok to get beaten in other areas. They are going to give Melo about 7-10 midrange shots that he'll generally do poorly on, and Dame will take about 4 drives to the rim that we'll just live with. Don't foul him, or he'll keep doing it. If he's not getting whistles he'll focus more on threes. They aren't afraid at all of taking midrange jumpers, which is ok if you can contest a little. If Portland doesn't hit a lot of threes, their defense is so fucking awful that if we have a good offense we'll win. But if it becomes a three point shoot out we're probably fucked. So do NOT leave anybody but Jones on the three point line."

Unless Little emerges as a real offensive threat at driving to the rim, there is no game plan we can initiate that results in us taking fewer contested threes. We just don't have the personnel.

How does having a lot of good 3pt shooters mean we have to take more contested 3s? Other teams with a similar quality of 3pt shooters don't take as high a percentage of contested 3s.

If teams defend us heavily on the 3pt line, why do we shoot the highest percentage of 3s in the league? We should be able to easily exploit that and create good looks and driving lanes, but we don't.

Often times other teams work for open 3s. We don't, and tend to settle for contested ones.

There's no way to spin that to excuse Stotts. It's not good.

 

[kjironman1]

The guy at Circuit City sold me an invisible keyboard for half off, I think they tricked me!

They told me mine was wireless. You plug this little USB connector in the computer. That is obviously where things get scrambled and then put together again. It is certainly happening to more than one of us on both sides of certain issues. The other day I literally read a post that said one thing and the author said he wrote something completely different.

 

[kjironman1]

Yeah, I think the lack of options being given to him, outside of himself taking over is taking a huge toll on his efficiency and putting him in a bad spot mentally but I think these next two days off will be good for him. Lets hope he comes out against the Lakers and lets the game come to him because that's when his shots start falling.

Maybe a guy that can create his own shot with great handles out there along side him would help? It's also been said that a decent Pick n Roll center might help as well.

 

[kjironman1]

Only if you can provide security for me!

In all seriousiness, I would be honored to meet up with you guys!

@Strenuus Is Security. Just buy him a beer.

 

[mook]

No team in NBA history had ever gone with just 1 turnover through an entire game until the Denver Nuggets faced our defense.

 

[kjironman1]

No team in NBA history had ever gone with just 1 turnover through an entire game until the Denver Nuggets faced our defense.

Turnovers are from a bunch of issues. A travel is a turnover. Illegal Defense is a turnover. A bad pass is a turnover. Not just steals and deflected passes which by the way the Blazers had two of.
Denver had more than one turnover last night. They just only got scored for one turnover.

 

[TBpup]

Tought stretch of games. These are the types of teams we will see in the Playoffs. We didn't do well against them before all the injuries and we expectedly, we aren't doing very well now.

 

[wizenheimer]

Stotts did not make it sound like CJ is very close to coming back.

well, he broke his foot 5 weeks ago and just got out of the boot. It's not going to be a week or two after getting out of the boot that he's ready to play. Foot injuries are kind of tricky so I'm assuming there's a healthy dose of caution being applied. Probably mid-March at the earliest; might be early April

IIRC, CJ broke his foot half way thru his senior year at Lehigh. Does anybody know if this new fracture is on the same foot?

 

[Hoopguru]

well, he broke his foot 5 weeks ago and just got out of the boot. It's not going to be a week or two after getting out of the boot that he's ready to play. Foot injuries are kind of tricky so I'm assuming there's a healthy dose of caution being applied. Probably mid-March at the earliest; might be early April

IIRC, CJ broke his foot half way thru his senior year at Lehigh. Does anybody know if this new fracture is on the same foot?

different foot I read.

 

[wizenheimer]

Go through my agent @SlyPokerDog , he’ll throw you a bone.

when you say a dog throws a bone is that what happen when a dog humps your leg?

 

[Tince]

So wait - You don't think open shots are better than contested ones? Yikes. You don't think having a good offense in the playoffs is important? Okay man.

This is deep stuff. Have a "good offense"?

You tend to revert back to these vague, undefinable storylines after the data YOU tell me to look at doesn't come to conclusion that our offense suffers worse in the playoffs than the average offense in the playoffs.

Show me league wide data, over a large time frame, with a correlation to winning, that says our offense has been bad (bottom 25% in the league). Heck, I'd take bottom half as a starting point.

You can't, you won't.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Do you consider us a below average team when it comes to basketball IQ?

On defense, yes. I have a theory that Stotts approached defense and offense differently. On offense he kind of gave them a framework and permission to make their own decisions, to read and react. On defense he gave them a very rigid, simple system. So they never had to think on defense. If you don't think, it's hard to make decisions quickly when you need to. So, now they struggle whenever he tries to introduce something new on defense?

 

[Tince]

On defense, yes. I have a theory that Stotts approached defense and offense differently. On offense he kind of gave them a framework and permission to make their own decisions, to read and react. On defense he gave them a very rigid, simple system. So they never had to think on defense. If you don't think, it's hard to make decisions quickly when you need to. So, now they struggle whenever he tries to introduce something new on defense?

Could very well be true. I was talking about the IQ of the players, not the coach.

I agree our defense is not great, hasn't been great, is unlikely to be great. The why is up for debate. Is coaching scheme a factor? Probably. Is negative point-of-attack PG & SG defenders a factor? Probably. Is having Kanter as our main center a factor (right now)? Probably. Is only having one healthy guy above 6'7" a factor? Probably.

The constants over the last 6 years is Dame, CJ, and Stotts.

 

[e_blazer]

well, he broke his foot 5 weeks ago and just got out of the boot. It's not going to be a week or two after getting out of the boot that he's ready to play. Foot injuries are kind of tricky so I'm assuming there's a healthy dose of caution being applied. Probably mid-March at the earliest; might be early April

IIRC, CJ broke his foot half way thru his senior year at Lehigh. Does anybody know if this new fracture is on the same foot?

It’s on the same foot, but in a totally different location. The one in college was a Jones fracture, which is on the outside of the foot. This one is on the top of the foot close to the ankle. From what I read and saw on videos at the time of the injury, where Jones fractures can be very slow to heal, this one is in an area that usually heals quickly. I think he’s likely back after the AllStar break, but only time will tell for sure.

 

[wizenheimer]

It’s on the same foot, but in a totally different location. The one in college was a Jones fracture, which is on the outside of the foot. This one is on the inside near the ankle. From what I read and saw on videos at the time of the injury, where Jones fractures can be very slow to heal, this one is in an area that usually heals quickly. I think he’s likely back after the AllStar break, but only time will tell for sure.

I wouldn't want to be that Jones guy

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Could very well be true. I was talking about the IQ of the players, not the coach.

I agree our defense is not great, hasn't been great, is unlikely to be great. The why is up for debate. Is coaching scheme a factor? Probably. Is negative point-of-attack PG & SG defenders a factor? Probably. Is having Kanter as our main center a factor (right now)? Probably. Is only having one healthy guy above 6'7" a factor? Probably.

The constants over the last 6 years is Dame, CJ, and Stotts.

As far as IQ of players: I'm saying I don't know on defense because they haven't been given enough of a chance (until lately) to demonstrate it. On offense, in some ways it's the same. Lillard does all the thinking.

 

[e_blazer]

I wouldn't want to be that Jones guy

Agreed. Both Dame and CJ have bones to pick with him. (See what I did there? I crack myself up. Others, not so much).

 

[PCmor7]

I wouldn't want to be that Jones guy

Jones' Bones were fragile.

 

[blazerkor]

Maybe a guy that can create his own shot with great handles out there along side him would help? It's also been said that a decent Pick n Roll center might help as well.

I think that guy that can create his own shot is extremely redundant on that end of the floor and far worse on D than what we have... and I don't care what the stats say, Gary might not be a lock down guy but he's a better defensive option than CJ. The Pick n Roll center, I'm cooler with. I'm just afraid that if Olshey isn't fired right at the end of this season he'll extend and overpay that center who is not athletic enough to be highly paid in today's NBA.

I will be rooting for a big trade, even though it's extremely unlikely, until the trade deadline and then I'll be rooting for CJ and Nurk to do the best they possibly can when they're almost certainly still on the team. Hell I'll be rooting for them to do the best before and after a trade if there is one. Both seem like great guys and I appreciate the effort and character they've brought to this team.

 

[blazerkor]

Jones' Bones were fragile.

Why is everybody talking so much shit about @BonesJones? If this continues, I'll have to report you.

 

[THE HCP]

Mello has not won a game in Denver since he left Denver in 2011.

So once again Portland is preserving his legacy.

Melo wasn't the reason we lost last night.