MY GAMEPLAN FOR THIS GAME:
We win this game if we defend well. Here is how I would matchup across the board:
Holiday / PG - Harkless
Rondo / SG - Lillard
Moore / SF - McCollum
Davis / PF - Aminu
Okafor / C - Nurkic
- Holiday is a PG who is bothered by length, and has killed us in the past. Since they start two PGs, and a 6'5 SF with their other SF options being mediocre non-threats, we should match New Orleans substitution patterns and always have Harkless on Holiday. Not only is this the best one-on-one matchup against Holiday, it also allows switch-ability between Harkless and Aminu on Holiday-Davis pick n rolls. This is crucial to slowing down their pick n' roll because, while Holiday isn't a great 3pt shooter, he can get extremely hot from there, and he's not a guy you can go under screens on.
- With Rondo, we can give him space on the 3pt line, but we shouldn't give him a TON of time to set up his 3pt shot, which we did last game. He can hit wide-open 3s, so we need to make sure we at least lightly contest any 3s he takes. With Rondo-Davis pick n rolls, we don't have the luxury of switchability, as Lillard on Davis is a mismatch that they will exploit every single time. We should never switch this pick n roll. Instead, we should have Aminu stay attached to Davis and have Lillard go under screens if they're tight, and over screens if there's enough room (basically, if Rondo doesn't rub his shoulder off the screener). Don't go under a screen 3 feet below the ball-handler. However, Lillard needs to be ready to recover to contest Rondo's 3, as last game he hit a couple because we allowed him to shoot wide-open looks.
- With their poor perimeter group, we have the ability to play all three of our guards together and not get burned defensively. Playing off both CJ and Dame has shown to cause outstanding production from Shabazz, so running with a 3-guard lineup could be a good idea in order to (hopefully) get Bazz going, as he's struggled lately. Holiday, Rondo, and Moore are three 6'5 or shorter guards, and I feel like McCollum guarding Darius Miller wouldn't be a problem. They do have Solomon Hill back but... I think CJ would be fine on him as well. DeAndre Liggins? Larry Drew III? Ian Clark? Hah! We could play whatever perimeter combinations we want to, unless they play Mirotic at SF (which they haven't done and don't have the interior depth to do).
- It's questionable if Mirotic plays, but if he does, I think Collins is a great defender to put on him. They've been playing him at C for 26% of his minutes since joining the team before the trade deadline, according to
Basketball-Reference. Collins has the length to bother Mirotic's 3pt shot as well as the lateral quickness to stay in front of Mirotic. Cheick Diallo and Darius Miler have been playing the 4 when Davis, Mirotic, and Okafor playing minutes at center. Turner could play some PF, as he could definitely handle Miller, and Diallo is only 6'9 and raw offensively. Our rebounding would be a question mark but a lineup of Bazz/Dame/McCollum/Turner/Collins would be a potent offensive unit that wouldn't get burnt defensively. That's a group that's built to run and play in transition.
Essentially, we can approach this game in a variety of ways. In the end, it comes down to stopping (or slowing down) Davis and Holiday. Harkless+Aminu on both is the best way to do so, and with their small, uninspiring crop of SFs, we can hide CJ on that position and use the length and solid perimeter defense of Turner and Harkless to slow down Holiday. We can throw out a bunch of different lineups regardless of size and be fine, so offensively, we can ride with the hot hands and the best offensive lineup possible, so long as we have Aminu and Harkless on the floor WHEN BOTH of Davis and Holiday are on the floor as well.
