Game Thread GAME# 80: THUNDER @ BLAZERS - APRIL 6, 2016 - WEDNESDAY, 7:00 PM (PDT), KGW

[Tunchi]

I'm going to C/P what I posted from another thread. It's related:

Here's a cool stat, it's not totally related but it kind of is.
Since February, CJ has been shooting the 3 ball at around a 46-47% clip. Prior to that, he shot 35% in Jan, 42% in Dec and 38% in Nov. 40% is good don't get me wrong, but the difference between 40% and 47% at the volume CJ shoots is the difference between a plain good shooter like Wesley Matthews and an elite shooter like JJ Redick or Kyle Korver.
So I went on the NBA stats site (awesome site by the way) and I got this:

Check out the % of threes that CJ was assisted on in Oct-January versus the % assisted on in Feb-March (April is a small sample size buffed by his 6/6 game against Miami). The correlation seems pretty telling. Two hypothesis:
1.) CJ is working off the ball more and Lillard/the team is looking to get CJ open more.
2.) CJ has improved his shot selection by not taking as many off the dribble threes.

Now here's Dame's:

Nearly half of his 3s are unassisted. We all know Dame loves taking threes off the bounce. It's also no secret that unassisted 3s are less accurate than assisted 3s. Even in CJ's worse months, a majority of his 3s were still assisted.
I think what I'm trying to get at is this: Dame is a better shooter than his percentages indicate. The difference is probably not as big as the 37% - 42% difference between Dame and CJ's 3PT%, but he needs to pick his spots better. He really should improve his shot selection, at least a little bit.....as good as he is, he's not a Steph Curry like shooter.

Just for kicks, here's Steph:

Even Steph's unassisted 3pt% is less than Dame's. A lot of that has to due with having a great playmaker like Green, but the point stands.

That's why I think Cj might be sneaky better than Dame.

He is a better scorer in every area of the floor but at the rim. Where Dame isn’t too great himself. TBH if McCollum finds a way to get 4 or more FTAs a game I can’t see him not averaging more pts than Dame. Shoots a higher percentage plus closes the gap in FTs and thats it.

Dame relied on Fts a lot in that hot run. Made some crazy amount of Fgs too, but the Fts uppage is what pushed him over the edge.

Lillard only shoots 41 percent.. thats really not that good for as many shots as he takes

 

[illmatic99]

Dame is so obviously dinged up. He seemed to have some issue on his right thumb yesterday in addition to his pre-existing foot problem. He's having trouble beating his man off the dribble and finishing at the rim-- i've seen him blow more wide open layups the past few games than I've seen him all his career. His shot selection needs improvement-- no doubt, but the obvious fix here is rest.

He'll get it next week. So glad we already clinched now so that he can pace himself before the playoffs.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Dame is so obviously dinged up. He seemed to have some issue on his right thumb yesterday in addition to his pre-existing foot problem. He's having trouble beating his man off the dribble and finishing at the rim-- i've seen him blow more wide open layups the past few games than I've seen him all his career. His shot selection needs improvement-- no doubt, but the obvious fix here is rest.

He'll get it next week. So glad we already clinched now so that he can pace himself before the playoffs.

Yep, as @KingAlbertoJrSpeed has been saying for weeks--2 games total in the next 10 days. Dame won't sit, either, I'm sure, but he'll have plenty of opportunity to recuperate and be fully prepared for the Clippers.

 

[B-Roy]

Dame is so obviously dinged up. He seemed to have some issue on his right thumb yesterday in addition to his pre-existing foot problem. He's having trouble beating his man off the dribble and finishing at the rim-- i've seen him blow more wide open layups the past few games than I've seen him all his career. His shot selection needs improvement-- no doubt, but the obvious fix here is rest.

He'll get it next week. So glad we already clinched now so that he can pace himself before the playoffs.

I agree. Dame really needs the rest. Like really needs it. Last few games he looked like he was running in molasses.

 

[Draco]

Yep, as @KingAlbertoJrSpeed has been saying for weeks--2 games total in the next 10 days. Dame won't sit, either, I'm sure, but he'll have plenty of opportunity to recuperate and be fully prepared for the Clippers.

I think we'll sit a bunch of guys the final game of the season. Aminu, Plumlee, Crabbe and CJ have also played more minutes than ever in their career. We should have the 5th seed clinched by then. Would hate to see someone get injured in a meaningless game. It'll be a reward for Luis/Cliff/Pat to get huge minutes in a game after a season of hard work behind the scenes.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

I think we'll sit a bunch of guys the final game of the season. Aminu, Plumlee, Crabbe and CJ have also played more minutes than ever in their career. We should have the 5th seed clinched by then. Would hate to see someone get injured in a meaningless game. It'll be a reward for Luis/Cliff/Pat to get huge minutes in a game after a season of hard work behind the scenes.

I would love to have the 5th seed clinched by then but in the meantime, MIN is no pushover. I mean they just beat the Warriors.

 

[Scalma]

Clippers don't scare me that much relatively speaking.

I like Aminu guarding Blake. Blake's not a back to the basket player anyway so his size advantage won't matter. Vonleh might be used as well. He defended blake real well earlier in the season.

DeAndre will hurt them more than he will help them.

Redick will get his points but I like that matchup on the other side of the court for McCollum.

Lillard will hear the noise about Paul owning him. He will be rested so I could see that matchup being a wash.

The X factor for LA will be Crawford. The X factor for Portland will be Harkless and Crabbe. When those guys are on, both teams are hard to beat.

 

[Pinwheel1]

It's simple odds. Are you winning a championship more likely or hitting a home run with a late lottery pick/trade?? I'll take draft

Is it really that simple? At what point do you stop rooting for a lottery pick? if there are a couple of teams who are obviously better than everyone else......should we ALWAYS be more happy to be in the lottery because the odds are better? To me those are the teams more likely destined for mediocrity.

I do value draft picks as a way to build a team. You need to continue to fill the pipeline. But unless you get a top pick you can just as easy get lucky with a young free agent. (or 2nd round pick)

There are only 30 teams in the NBA with 15 roster spots, and a lot of good (but not great) players in the world. We can find the equivalent of a later lottery pick anywhere. And as for this year's top picks? Jaylen Brown is projected to be 4th. An athletic SF who can shoot from the outside.........again not hard to find. Is he going to make us a contender, more than say Harkless? Is Buddy better than CJ? Do either really have that much trade value?

IMO this is not the year to be worried about missing the lottery.

 

[B-Roy]

Is it really that simple? At what point do you stop rooting for a lottery pick? if there are a couple of teams who are obviously better than everyone else......should we ALWAYS be more happy to be in the lottery because the odds are better? To me those are the teams more likely destined for mediocrity.

I do value draft picks as a way to build a team. You need to continue to fill the pipeline. But unless you get a top pick you can just as easy get lucky with a young free agent. (or 2nd round pick)

There are only 30 teams in the NBA with 15 roster spots, and a lot of good (but not great) players in the world. We can find the equivalent of a later lottery pick anywhere. And as for this year's top picks? Jaylen Brown is projected to be 4th. An athletic SF who can shoot from the outside.........again not hard to find. Is he going to make us a contender, more than say Harkless? Is Buddy better than CJ? Do either really have that much trade value?

IMO this is not the year to be worried about missing the lottery.

I can see both sides. The draft is the great unknown. You can't always look at a supposedly weak draft and brush it off.

Antetokoumpo was drafted 15th (15th!!!) in one of the weaker drafts in recent memory, and one that was projected to be weak. Antetokoumpo is the type of player you tank for.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

But they might cost more. That might be the only argument.

But damn, I don't mind paying Hark some money!!!

If they play well enough to get paid, we have a player worth the money. I don't see what the big deal is.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

I can see both sides. The draft is the great unknown. You can't always look at a supposedly weak draft and brush it off.

Antetokoumpo was drafted 15th (15th!!!) in one of the weaker drafts in recent memory, and one that was projected to be weak. Antetokoumpo is the type of player you tank for.

Apparently he's the type of player you don't have to tank for, since he was drafted 15th.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Apparently he's the type of player you don't have to tank for, since he was drafted 15th.

Exactly. 15th is not even in the lottery. A playoff team got to pick him. Outside of the top 3 picks any given year, scouting is always more important then actual pick position.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

OKC didn't sit Durant and Westbrick because they wanted to rest them.
They were just afraid to play at full strength and get destroyed by the Blazers this close to the playoffs.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Exactly. 15th is not even in the lottery. A playoff team got to pick him. Outside of the top 3 picks any given year, scouting is always more important then actual pick position.

I always go back to the fact that Cliff Robinson was a second round draft pick. Wes was undrafted. Diamonds in the rough exist. Olshey's summer 2015 tells me he can find those guys.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

OKC didn't sit Durant and Westbrick because they wanted to rest them.
They were just afraid to play at full strength and get destroyed by the Blazers this close to the playoffs.

It was win/win for them; if the Blazers are good enough to win the game, they don't want to see us in the playoffs. If we couldn't beat their bench, they definitely want to see us in the playoffs.

 

[B-Roy]

Apparently he's the type of player you don't have to tank for, since he was drafted 15th.

Yes, but that wasn't the point.

The point was, it's better to have a pick because scouting matters. The Blazers don't have a pick this year in a supposed "weak" draft.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Yes, but that wasn't the point.

The point was, it's better to have a pick because scouting matters. The Blazers don't have a pick this year in a supposed "weak" draft.

We have, what, two second rounders? Opportunities to trade for a late first rounder with a bunch of bench resources? Getting pick whatever-the-fuck and losing the pick next year means almost nothing if your GM's strength is trading for under-valued talent.

In fact, I expect that as soon as we're able, we'll trade our 2017 first rounder for some 24 year old who will turn out to be awesome. Hell, we might not even protect it, so we can also trade our 2018 pick for another 24 year old.

 

[B-Roy]

We have, what, two second rounders? Opportunities to trade for a late first rounder with a bunch of bench resources? Getting pick whatever-the-fuck and losing the pick next year means almost nothing if your GM's strength is trading for under-valued talent.

We have no picks this year. No firsts no seconds. A lot of the guys are free agents so not as many opportunities to trade for a pick either.

I'm not arguing for losing, I'm ecstatic we're going to be the 5th seed. Just saying there is an argument for the other side.

 

[illmatic99]

We have, what, two second rounders? Opportunities to trade for a late first rounder with a bunch of bench resources? Getting pick whatever-the-fuck and losing the pick next year means almost nothing if your GM's strength is trading for under-valued talent.

In fact, I expect that as soon as we're able, we'll trade our 2017 first rounder for some 24 year old who will turn out to be awesome. Hell, we might not even protect it, so we can also trade our 2018 pick for another 24 year old.

We have 0 picks this year. Our 2nd rounder is going to ORL (via CHI) (via CLE in Allen Crabbe trade from 2013).

 

[BlazerCaravan]

We have 0 picks this year. Our 2nd rounder is going to ORL (via CHI) (via CLE in Allen Crabbe trade from 2013).

I'm still not bothered.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I can see both sides. The draft is the great unknown. You can't always look at a supposedly weak draft and brush it off.

Antetokoumpo was drafted 15th (15th!!!) in one of the weaker drafts in recent memory, and one that was projected to be weak. Antetokoumpo is the type of player you tank for.

So you are saying someone like Antetokoumpo is a difference maker. No doubt he is a fun player to watch, but I am not so sure he would make us a contender. I know you were just using him as an example, and he is a perfect example. A young athletic freak........who can't shoot as well as Montero from the outside. There are a few of those in this years draft.

Maybe he will make it as a PG, or maybe he will only turn out to be as effective as Harkless or Aminu. Whom we got both for basically free. My point is not to disparage the Greek freak, because he is good. But will he be great? We have plenty of good players, we need one more great player. Hitting that home run on a draft pick is rare. But i think we can get a Wes, or a Whiteside just as easy in the 2nd round (if we obtain one) or free agency.

 

[B-Roy]

So you are saying someone like Antetokoumpo is a difference maker. No doubt he is a fun player to watch, but I am not so sure he would make us a contender. I know you were just using him as an example, and he is a perfect example. A young athletic freak........who can't shoot as well as Montero from the outside. There are a few of those in this years draft.

Maybe he will make it as a PG, or maybe he will only turn out to be as effective as Harkless or Aminu. Whom we got both for basically free. My point is not to disparage the Greek freak, because he is good. But will is be great? We have plenty of good players, we need one more great player. Hitting that home run on a draft pick is rare. But i think we can get a Wes, or a Whiteside just as easy in the 2nd round (if we obtain one) or free agency.

Yeah it was an anecdotal answer, but if you want to actually argue Greek Freek, time will tell but I'm fairly confident he will be a perennial all-star before his days are over.

And this is coming from someone who didn't see anything special his first year.

 

[Tunchi]

We have no picks this year. No firsts no seconds. A lot of the guys are free agents so not as many opportunities to trade for a pick either.

I'm not arguing for losing, I'm ecstatic we're going to be the 5th seed. Just saying there is an argument for the other side.

Hell yea there's an argument for the other side

A huge one

 

[Orion Bailey]

We have no picks this year. No firsts no seconds. A lot of the guys are free agents so not as many opportunities to trade for a pick either.

I'm not arguing for losing, I'm ecstatic we're going to be the 5th seed. Just saying there is an argument for the other side.

Hell yea there's an argument for the other side

A huge one

There's always an argument for every side, but sometimes those arguments are so ridiculous sounding, the one arguing that point loses cred.

I could argue the world is flat. Doesn't make me right.

 

[Strenuus]

If they play well enough to get paid, we have a player worth the money. I don't see what the big deal is.

Touche, my friend.

 

[Draco]

We have no picks this year. No firsts no seconds. A lot of the guys are free agents so not as many opportunities to trade for a pick either.

I'm not arguing for losing, I'm ecstatic we're going to be the 5th seed. Just saying there is an argument for the other side.

By giving up the pick this year we gained a first round pick next year or two second round picks the years after. We can always flip those picks for a pick this year if there's a player we really want.

The draft pick was lost in the horrible Afflalo trade. If some posters said that was a horrible move at the time then bump the thread and toot your horn because it has been a disaster. But that was over a year ago; and has no bearing on what the team does this season.

Making the playoffs now doesn't harm us now; that debt was already owed.

 

[B-Roy]

The draft pick was lost in the horrible Afflalo trade. If some posters said that was a horrible move at the time then bump the thread and toot your horn because it has been a disaster. But that was over a year ago; and has no bearing on what the team does this season.

Making the playoffs now doesn't harm us now; that debt was already owed.

Yep, that was the kicker. A first and a rotation player for nothing.

 

[stampedehero]

POST Game: Since the starter player core of OKC was on the bench I tend to believe they did not mind having our team enter the playoffs.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Yep, that was the kicker. A first and a rotation player for nothing.

Yes, if only Neil Olshey would have known Wesley Matthews was going to rupture his achilles tendon a few days after making that trade. At the time of the trade, we had the third best record in the league and were trying to strengthen the bench on a veteran team for the playoffs. The Matthews injury changed everything. It was the first domino to fall. We ended up with the 6th best record in the Western Conference, entered the playoffs reeling, and got owned in the first round, prompting Aldridge to leave, along with Mathews, Lopez and Afflallo. It's easy to trash that trade now, but it made a lot more sense at the time - not knowing Matthews was going to get injured.

 

[Strenuus]

Yes, if only Neil Olshey would have known Wesley Matthews was going to rupture his achilles tendon a few days after making that trade. At the time of the trade, we had the third best record in the league and were trying to strengthen the bench on a veteran team for the playoffs. The Matthews injury changed everything. It was the first domino to fall. We ended up with the 6th best record in the Western Conference, entered the playoffs reeling, and got owned in the first round, prompting Aldridge to leave, along with Mathews, Lopez and Afflallo. It's easy to trash that trade now, but it made a lot more sense at the time - not knowing Matthews was going to get injured.

No one has been able to refute this because they know it's right. They just say "Oh it sucks" and ignore all the details.

Fox news up in here sometimes.