Zombie Gary Trent to Blazers

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Boob-No-More said:
I have no idea how accurately Kevin Pelton can predict the future, but if Trent ends up being a better shooter than DiVincenzo and Huerter and everyone else picked ahead of him, we just got a huge steal.

BNM
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Maybe the best Spot up shooter? But i don't know if he can create his own shot
 
I mean, being younger is pretty significant, especially when the difference is three years. Trent is the same age as Simons.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
What am I missing? Trent shot a measley 41.5 % overall. His EFG was 52.8%, a full ten percent behind Khyri Thomas 62.9%.
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Shooting is one skill that doesn't necessarily translate from one level to the next. There are several factors (strength of competition, height of release, quickness of release, range, age, etc.) that contribute. Just because one player shoots better in college than another, doesn't necessarily mean that same player will shoot better at the next level.

Unlike Kevin Pelton, I don't watch enough college ball to have an informed opinion why he said what he said.

As an extreme example, Klay Thompson was a good shooter in college (.436 FG%, .398 3FG%) who became a great shooter in the NBA (.458 FG%, .422 3FG%).

At the other extreme, Adam Morrison was a great shooter in college (.496 FG%, .428 3FG%) whose shooting did not translate to the next level (.373 FG%, .331 3FG%).

I'm not claiming Trent Jr. is the next Klay Thompson, or that Khyri Thomas is the next Adam Morrison. As I said, these are two extreme examples. I'm just pointing out there are reasons why one player may project as a better shooter at the NBA level than another player who shot better at the college level.

Kevin Pelton is the one who projected Trent Jr. to be the become the best shooter at the NBA level from this draft. He must have some reasons to back up that projection. Unfortunately, he didn't share them in his tweet.

BNM
 
We hear for years that Dame and C.J. are two small combo guards that can't coexist. We take another small combo guard with the 24th pick and people bitch about that.

So, we take a 6'6" SG in the second round and now people are bitching that we passed on yet another 6'3" combo guard.

I think sometimes (most of the time) people just like to find something to complain about.

No one we were going to take at 24th and 37th was going to propel us into contention this season. So, we took a pair of 19-year olds with upside. Not sure why that's considered bad.

I get that Khryi Thomas may be better than Gary Trent Jr. today (and even that is debatable), but where will Gary Trent Jr. (and Anfrnee Simons) be three years from now when they are the same age as Thomas, with three seasons of NBA experience under their belts? One, or both, may break out. One, or both, may end up total busts. Those are the risks associated with the draft in general, but especially when drafting at 24 and 37.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Shooting is one skill that doesn't necessarily translate from one level to the next. There are several factors (strength of competition, height of release, quickness of release, range, age, etc.) that contribute. Just because one player shoots better in college than another, doesn't necessarily mean that same player will shoot better at the next level.

Unlike Kevin Pelton, I don't watch enough college ball to have an informed opinion why he said what he said.

As an extreme example, Klay Thompson was a good shooter in college (.436 FG%, .398 3FG%) who became a great shooter in the NBA (.458 FG%, .422 3FG%).

At the other extreme, Adam Morrison was a great shooter in college (.496 FG%, .428 3FG%) whose shooting did not translate to the next level (.373 FG%, .331 3FG%).

I'm not claiming Trent Jr. is the next Klay Thompson, or that Khyri Thomas is the next Adam Morrison. As I said, these are two extreme examples. I'm just pointing out there are reasons why one player may project as a better shooter at the NBA level than another player who shot better at the college level.

Kevin Pelton is the one who projected Trent Jr. to be the become the best shooter at the NBA level from this draft. He must have some reasons to back up that projection. Unfortunately, he didn't share them in his tweet.

BNM
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I tracked down Peltons formula. From an insider article couple years ago. Explains why he would be so high on Trent, who shot near 90% from the line.

Predicting NBA 3-point percentage
It might seem crazy that anything but the college 3-point shooting percentage would help predict NBA 3-point shooting. But history is striking in this regard. Consider this: 13 players in Sports-Reference.com's college database (dating to 1997-98) shot at least 42 percent from 3-point range with at least 250 career attempts and have attempted at least 500 career 3-pointers as pros. A similar-sized group of players made at least 85 percent of their free throws on the same number of attempts. Lo and behold, the two groups -- which overlap somewhat -- have shot almost the same percentage from 3-point range in the NBA.


From a statistical standpoint, it makes sense that free throws might convey important information about a player's overall shooting ability. After all, a player's free throw percentage is much more stable season to season. NBA players who have attempted between 100 and 200 free throws in consecutive seasons have a .785 correlation between their free throw percentage in the two years. (Correlation measures the linear relationship between two numbers, with 1 representing one-to-one correlation and zero indicating no linear relationship at all.) The year-to-year correlation in 3-point percentage among players with the same number of attempts is just .313.

So if we take the full sample of players with at least 250 career 3-point and free throw attempts in the Sports-Reference.com NCAA database and at least 500 career 3s attempted in the NBA, college free throw percentage actually correlates slightly better (.443) to NBA 3-point percentage than college 3-point percentage (.429). Neither is a particularly good predictor of 3-point shooting in the NBA, but together they're stronger than either stat individually, explaining about a quarter of the variation in what players shoot.
 
Scalma said:
I tracked down Peltons formula. From an insider article couple years ago. Explains why he would be so high on Trent, who shot near 90% from the line.

Predicting NBA 3-point percentage
It might seem crazy that anything but the college 3-point shooting percentage would help predict NBA 3-point shooting. But history is striking in this regard. Consider this: 13 players in Sports-Reference.com's college database (dating to 1997-98) shot at least 42 percent from 3-point range with at least 250 career attempts and have attempted at least 500 career 3-pointers as pros. A similar-sized group of players made at least 85 percent of their free throws on the same number of attempts. Lo and behold, the two groups -- which overlap somewhat -- have shot almost the same percentage from 3-point range in the NBA.


From a statistical standpoint, it makes sense that free throws might convey important information about a player's overall shooting ability. After all, a player's free throw percentage is much more stable season to season. NBA players who have attempted between 100 and 200 free throws in consecutive seasons have a .785 correlation between their free throw percentage in the two years. (Correlation measures the linear relationship between two numbers, with 1 representing one-to-one correlation and zero indicating no linear relationship at all.) The year-to-year correlation in 3-point percentage among players with the same number of attempts is just .313.

So if we take the full sample of players with at least 250 career 3-point and free throw attempts in the Sports-Reference.com NCAA database and at least 500 career 3s attempted in the NBA, college free throw percentage actually correlates slightly better (.443) to NBA 3-point percentage than college 3-point percentage (.429). Neither is a particularly good predictor of 3-point shooting in the NBA, but together they're stronger than either stat individually, explaining about a quarter of the variation in what players shoot.
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Thanks for tracking this down.

To Thomas' credit, he did improve his FT% each year at Creighton. He went from an abysmal .521 as a freshman to .766 as a sophomore to .788 as a junior. In three years of college he basically improved from a terrible FT shooter to an average one.

Trent Jr. was near elite level as a freshman.

Only time will tell which ends up the better pro. Given where the are selected, I'm not expecting either to be the next Klay Thompson, but I'm not averse to being pleasantly surprised.

BTW, Thompson shot above .800 FT% all three seasons at Washington State...

BNM
 
hoopsjock said:
Khyri Thomas was a two time defensive player of the year in the Big East and Gary Trent's team had to switch to zone defense because they were so bad at man to man defense.
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Pretty sure the primary reason Duke went zone was so bagley and Carter could coexist.
 
RR7 said:
Pretty sure the primary reason Duke went zone was so bagley and Carter could coexist.
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Neither can play PnR defense

Edit: Watch the St Joe’s game. That’s why they went to a 2-3 and got the bigs out of pnr.
 
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UKRAINEFAN said:
I sure wouldn't want to base my pick on workouts; even Olshey has said he doesn't do that. I guess an argument could be made that Trent's first year in college was better than Thomas'. Oops, then I looked. Thomas shot over 41% on threes his first year and has proved consistency by basically doing that for three years. And his overall FG% his first year 47%, 6 points higher than Trent. That is a huge difference and he improved to almost 54% by his third year.
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You're taking my comments a little out of context, which even I do occasionally.

My point was your point, basically. Can't just look at stats, watch them play, too. You DO base your decisions on workouts, stats, eye-test,... every data point you can get. I too would have liked Thomas, 3&D for days. However, Olshey, after weighing all of
the evidence came to the conclusion that Simons has more upside and Trent has more intangibles (work ethic). Seems reasonable to me.
 
hoopsjock said:
To me a lack of defense shows one of 3 things. That player doesn't have a high BBIQ, the effort isn't there, or he just doesn't have the physical ability to move quick enough.

Khyri Thomas was a two time defensive player of the year in the Big East and Gary Trent's team had to switch to zone defense because they were so bad at man to man defense. If we're evaluating work ethic, I'll take the one who has proven he loves to play defense.

On top of all that, Thomas is a great shooter too. The only things Trent has on Thomas are his size, that he is younger, and as @Scalma just pointed out free throw %.
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I like Thomas, too. NO had them both in for workouts. I assume it's an intangibles thing, but I'm reading between the
lines here, like everyone else.
 
Hahahaha! Exactly. You and @BonesJones keeps up on things a lot more than I do, so I've
got to give you guys props, but I also need to enjoy things every once in a while!
 
Boob-No-More said:
We hear for years that Dame and C.J. are two small combo guards that can't coexist. We take another small combo guard with the 24th pick and people bitch about that.

So, we take a 6'6" SG in the second round and now people are bitching that we passed on yet another 6'3" combo guard.

I think sometimes (most of the time) people just like to find something to complain about.

No one we were going to take at 24th and 37th was going to propel us into contention this season. So, we took a pair of 19-year olds with upside. Not sure why that's considered bad.

I get that Khryi Thomas may be better than Gary Trent Jr. today (and even that is debatable), but where will Gary Trent Jr. (and Anfrnee Simons) be three years from now when they are the same age as Thomas, with three seasons of NBA experience under their belts? One, or both, may break out. One, or both, may end up total busts. Those are the risks associated with the draft in general, but especially when drafting at 24 and 37.

BNM
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I think Trent may eventually be better than Thomas (may even be right now like you suggest). My point all along is that Thomas is an elite level defender while Trent is very poorly thought of on defense. For this current team I would rather have an Avery Bradley type than another Crabbe type player. If neither is particularly good at creating their own shot then I don't think there is a big enough difference in their spot up shooting to warrant Trent being a better prospect.

I do get and understand that finding an elite shooter, even if that is his only skill, in the 2nd round is a good thing. I was just disappointed that we gave up two future 2nd rounders for him and did so with Thomas on the board. Obviously I'm just a stupid poster on the internet so my opinion doesn't really account for much, I just really like Thomas a lot and don't have huge hopes for Trent.
 
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Just read that the picks we gave up were the best of the Minny/Lakers 2nd rounder in 2019 (not a big deal) but the other one was the Miami 2021 2nd rounder. Like @Sarni mentioned the Heat could be really bad by then.
 
The biggest knock on Trent is his defense. Unless someone is a slug or at a tremendous physical disadvantage, neither of which Trent is, they can learn to play defense at least adequately.

I've seen mixed reviews about his ballhandling.

And I'm not sure if the Crabbe comparisons fly beyond the fact that both shoot the ball well. Trent seems to be a much more aggressive offensive player than I recall Crabbe being in college.

Also, Crabbe and Khyri Thomas, like Bridges, were juniors when they were drafted. Trent's development is two full years behind any of them, and yet one can make a reasonable argument that he's already at least the same level as the first two were when they were drafted and ahead of the third when he was a college freshman.

Trent wasn't exactly what I was hoping for, but I'm willing to let this play out. There are things to like about this pick.
 
hoopsjock said:
I think Trent may eventually be better than Thomas (may even be right now like you suggest). My point all along is that Thomas is an elite level defender while Trent is very poorly thought of on defense. For this current team I would rather have an Avery Bradley type than another Crabbe type player. If neither is particularly good at creating their own shot then I don't think there is a big enough difference in their spot up shooting to warrant Trent being a better prospect.

I do get and understand that finding an elite shooter, even if that is his only skill, in the 2nd round is a good thing. I was just disappointed that we gave up two future 2nd rounders for him and did so with Thomas on the board. Obviously I'm just a stupid poster on the internet so my opinion doesn't really account for much, I just really like Thomas a lot and don't have huge hopes for Trent.
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Where is this idea that he is a terrible defender come from? I’ve seen no stats to back it up and it didn’t match what I saw. I’ve seen scouts say he is inconsistent in his effort and gambles for too many steals, not that he is a matador and a sieve. Khyri obviously a much better defender, but it won’t matter if he is playing SF minutes because he is too short / doesn’t weigh enough.

Also, Trent Jr. is already our 3rd best offensive player as soon as he lands in the state, imo. The spacing he will provide for Dame and CJ is going to really help - plus, he is better with the ball than Crabbe.
 
hoopsjock said:
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Just read that the picks we gave up were the best of the Minny/Lakers 2nd rounder in 2019 (not a big deal) but the other one was the Miami 2021 2nd rounder. Like @Sarni mentioned the Heat could be really bad by then.
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I haven't looked at the 2019 second round, but it sure seems like the second round this year had a lot more value than the average year.
 
Ok, I need a little of your help. To really crystallize my thoughts on Trent, I need to know why
Crabbe failed. Crabbe had a prototypical NBA body, and was an excellent shooter (after being
mediocre for 2 years and figuring out that he had to hit the practice gym or he'd be out of the league.)

I say that Crabbe failed because of his defense never improved enough to make him even an average
player. He never became a decent dribbler. Even if he had a cheap contract, he's really not more than
Pat C. So, some questions are
  • Why won't this fate await Trent?
  • Will his work ethic and other intangibles help him enough?
  • Is his floor Crabbe?
  • What's his ceiling?
  • Why did Crabbe fail (ignore the contract thing)?
  • Trent was asked to sit in the corner in college because he was surrounded by great players. Will this happen again in the pros?
 
Wizard Mentor said:
Ok, I need a little of your help. To really crystallize my thoughts on Trent, I need to know why
Crabbe failed. Crabbe had a prototypical NBA body, and was an excellent shooter (after being
mediocre for 2 years and figuring out that he had to hit the practice gym or he'd be out of the league.)

I say that Crabbe failed because of his defense never improved enough to make him even an average
player. He never became a decent dribbler. Even if he had a cheap contract, he's really not more than
Pat C. So, some questions are
  • Why won't this fate await Trent?
  • Will his work ethic and other intangibles help him enough?
  • Is his floor Crabbe?
  • What's his ceiling?
  • Why did Crabbe fail (ignore the contract thing)?
  • Trent was asked to sit in the corner in college because he was surrounded by great players. Will this happen again in the pros?
Click to expand...

Crabbe was the #1 option and stayed in school multiple years.

Gary Trent Jr. was the 4th or 5th option. Allen, Bagley, Duval, Trent, Wendell Carter. Also a rookie, more time to develop.

I doubt he will be asked to not drive into the paint in the pros, because ‘Grayson, Bagley, Carter’ are clogging it up. I’ve never seen his work ethic questioned.

Spacing is amplified in the pros, which should further help him, because he is better off the bounce than Crabbe. He attacks the rim quite often but doesn’t create for others.

Trent Jr. biggest problem is he is Rudy Gay, Wiggins, Kobe... Dude will SHOOT it even if he is triple teamed.

Crabbe seemingly is slightly more aggressive than Meyers Leonard. Trent Jr. is closer to Russ Westbrook in his aggressiveness (for better or worse). That’s my problem with trent... dude is going to jack a lot of shots leaving me facepalming imo
 
Wizard Mentor said:
Ok, I need a little of your help. To really crystallize my thoughts on Trent, I need to know why
Crabbe failed. Crabbe had a prototypical NBA body, and was an excellent shooter (after being
mediocre for 2 years and figuring out that he had to hit the practice gym or he'd be out of the league.)

I say that Crabbe failed because of his defense never improved enough to make him even an average
player. He never became a decent dribbler. Even if he had a cheap contract, he's really not more than
Pat C. So, some questions are
  • Why won't this fate await Trent?
  • Will his work ethic and other intangibles help him enough?
  • Is his floor Crabbe?
  • What's his ceiling?
  • Why did Crabbe fail (ignore the contract thing)?
  • Trent was asked to sit in the corner in college because he was surrounded by great players. Will this happen again in the pros?
Click to expand...

In a nutshell:

Crabbe == passive
Trent Jr. == aggressive

Crabbe ALWAYS deferred to others and was afraid to take anything close to a big shot with the game on the line. Trent Jr. has the balls to shoot the big shots with the game on the line, without hesitation.

BNM
 
JoshuaHall said:
Crabbe was the #1 option and stayed in school multiple years.

Gary Trent Jr. was the 4th or 5th option. Allen, Bagley, Duval, Trent, Wendell Carter. Also a rookie, more time to develop.

I doubt he will be asked to not drive into the paint in the pros, because ‘Grayson, Bagley, Carter’ are clogging it up. I’ve never seen his work ethic questioned.

Spacing is amplified in the pros, which should further help him, because he is better off the bounce than Crabbe. He attacks the rim quite often but doesn’t create for others.

Trent Jr. biggest problem is he is Rudy Gay, Wiggins, Kobe... Dude will SHOOT it even if he is triple teamed.

Crabbe seemingly is slightly more aggressive than Meyers Leonard. Trent Jr. is closer to Russ Westbrook in his aggressiveness (for better or worse). That’s my problem with trent... dude is going to jack a lot of shots leaving me facepalming imo
Click to expand...

Boob-No-More said:
In a nutshell:

Crabbe == passive
Trent Jr. == aggressive

Crabbe ALWAYS deferred to others and was afraid to take anything close to a big shot with the game on the line. Trent Jr. has the balls to shoot the big shots with the game on the line, without hesitation.

BNM
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Great input, thanks guys! Maybe me and some of the other posters here should change our names to
Crabbe Trent Jr. because we're passive/aggressive :)
 
craigehlo said:
Crabbe had zero confidence in his drive. His summer "working on the floater" or whatever, was all talk from him. From what I've seen from Trent at Duke, he's already far better than Crabbe at taking his defender off the dribble.
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Really looking forward to watching him in summer league.
 
Wizard Mentor said:
Ok, I need a little of your help. To really crystallize my thoughts on Trent, I need to know why
Crabbe failed. Crabbe had a prototypical NBA body, and was an excellent shooter (after being
mediocre for 2 years and figuring out that he had to hit the practice gym or he'd be out of the league.)

I say that Crabbe failed because of his defense never improved enough to make him even an average
player. He never became a decent dribbler. Even if he had a cheap contract, he's really not more than
Pat C. So, some questions are
  • Why won't this fate await Trent?
  • Will his work ethic and other intangibles help him enough?
  • Is his floor Crabbe?
  • What's his ceiling?
  • Why did Crabbe fail (ignore the contract thing)?
  • Trent was asked to sit in the corner in college because he was surrounded by great players. Will this happen again in the pros?
Click to expand...
If you ignore his contract, then why would you consider Crabbe a failure? A 2nd rounder being a bench player giving you 10 PPG on some of the best 3 point %s in the league is failing? Is he really that far off from what Korver was around the same time? A bench 3 point specialist who can get hot for you and have big games, and otherwise provide excellent spacing for your better players? Not everyone is a star, and the sooner guys realize their roles, the better they are for it. Maybe you mean he failed to grow into that, then I agree.
 
RR7 said:
If you ignore his contract, then why would you consider Crabbe a failure? A 2nd rounder being a bench player giving you 10 PPG on some of the best 3 point %s in the league is failing? Is he really that far off from what Korver was around the same time? A bench 3 point specialist who can get hot for you and have big games, and otherwise provide excellent spacing for your better players? Not everyone is a star, and the sooner guys realize their roles, the better they are for it. Maybe you mean he failed to grow into that, then I agree.
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Because, IMHO, 3&D without the D is not good enough.
 
RR7 said:
If you ignore his contract, then why would you consider Crabbe a failure? A 2nd rounder being a bench player giving you 10 PPG on some of the best 3 point %s in the league is failing? Is he really that far off from what Korver was around the same time? A bench 3 point specialist who can get hot for you and have big games, and otherwise provide excellent spacing for your better players? Not everyone is a star, and the sooner guys realize their roles, the better they are for it. Maybe you mean he failed to grow into that, then I agree.
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Personally, I think Korver is an exponentially better shooter.

Don’t recall Crabbe coming off screens at 110 miles per hour and shooting in one motion. Korver is insane.

Otherwise, I agree. Not everyone is a star and Crabbe isn’t a complete failure.
 
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