As I stated in another thread last week, even without Manu, I wouldn't take the Spurs lightly in the 1st round - especially if the Blazer don't have HCA.
The Spurs look bad right now, becuase they've lost Manu and Duncan can't play back-to-back games. Duncan looked awful agaistthe Blazers, but that was the 1st time since early February that he tried to play the 2nd night of a back-to-back. The night before, was vintage Duncan (26/15/3). He's still a great player - when he has a chance to rest his knees between games. And, in the playoffs there are no back-to-backs. In fact 2 or 3 days off between games is fairly common. The Spurs, even without Manu are dangerous with a rested Duncan and a healthy Parker.
BNM