Good Rubio assessment -- No Quick Fix

[Bwatcher]

In talking to a dozen basketball insiders on two continents (agents, front-office personnel, scouts, trainers) every single person would love to have Rubio on their team immediately. But everyone also cautions that his current form is nowhere near complete, and almost certainly won't be ready to carry an NBA team right out of the box.

The people around Ricky Rubio are eager for him to end up with an NBA team with a long-term plan in place. Stable ownership, good coaching staff, and opportunities to play without the pressure to produce immediately. The people around Ricky Rubio are smart -- because bright though his star may shine, Rubio is like one of those wines that you purchase now, but wait a few years before enjoying.

His best passes are top-grade, but his finishing approaching the rim is not ready for primetime, despite his handle and size. He made 42% of his 3s in the ACB this year, which is tremendous and a big improvement for a player with a reputation as a bad shooter. He can beat his man at will. But inside the arc he made only about three of eight shots per 40 minutes. In five EuroCup games, his effective field goal percentage (regular field goal percentage, plus an extra half a point for 3s) was 35%.

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop...ursting-with-Potential--but-No-Quick-Fix.html

 

[Minstrel]

I have a lot of faith in Rubio, but I also wouldn't count on him as a starter for, say, Portland. My dream would be to sign Miller as a free agent and trade assets for Rubio. Miller would start for a couple of seasons and Rubio would be the backup.

Of course, the chances of getting Rubio are tiny. But that would solve the point guard situation once and for all, IMO, so that would be ideal off-season. The things that make it slightly possible is that Portland is supposedly one of the teams Rubio would be interested in, Memphis isn't and Memphis has a young point guard. Plus, Washington is actively shopping their pick which could be an intermediate step to acquiring Memphis' pick.

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

Getting Andre Miller AND Rubio would be the perfect storm for Portland, and absolutely impossible to achieve, I think. Miller I can see, but how do we get Rubio without giving up one of the big three or Rudy?

 

[ehizzy3]

Getting Andre Miller AND Rubio would be the perfect storm for Portland, and absolutely impossible to achieve, I think. Miller I can see, but how do we get Rubio without giving up one of the big three or Rudy?

im not sure it would be to hard.....we trade up to early teens with 24/money/2nd rounders....then trade maybe travis, freeland, and bayless plus another 3 mill for whatever pick it takes to get rubio...something like that, maybe swap freeland with joel

 

[TradeNurkicNow]

im not sure it would be to hard.....we trade up to early teens with 24/money/2nd rounders....then trade maybe travis, freeland, and bayless plus another 3 mill for whatever pick it takes to get rubio...something like that, maybe swap freeland with joel

The pick is number 2, belonging to Memphis. Memphis doesn't need Travis or Freeland or Bayless. And I'm not quite ready to give up Joel for an 18 year old point guard.

 

[Minstrel]

Getting Andre Miller AND Rubio would be the perfect storm for Portland, and absolutely impossible to achieve, I think. Miller I can see, but how do we get Rubio without giving up one of the big three or Rudy?

Well, potentially something along the lines of this:

1. Buy a second first-round pick from some team.

2. Outlaw and Blake both expire at the end of next season. Giving them up, plus cash, for a large contract that Washington wants to get rid of, plus Portland's two first-round draft picks might get the #5 pick.

3. Trade the #5 pick plus Bayless to Memphis for the #2 pick. Bayless can be their shooting guard of the future, alongside Conley. Bayless fits that role, with less overlap, than Rubio would.

Just a possible route. I'm not saying it's likely that something like this could happen, but with Washington interested in trading their pick and Memphis open to potentially trading theirs, I think something could be done without giving up the Big Three or Rudy/Przybilla.

Though I would be open to trading Przybilla or Rudy. It all depends on what the deal ended up being. Neither player is completely off the table for me.

 

[Masbee]

Well, potentially something along the lines of this:

1. Buy a second first-round pick from some team.

2. Outlaw and Blake both expire at the end of next season. Giving them up, plus cash, for a large contract that Washington wants to get rid of, plus Portland's two first-round draft picks might get the #5 pick.

3. Trade the #5 pick plus Bayless to Memphis for the #2 pick. Bayless can be their shooting guard of the future, alongside Conley. Bayless fits that role, with less overlap, than Rubio would.

Just a possible route. I'm not saying it's likely that something like this could happen, but with Washington interested in trading their pick and Memphis open to potentially trading theirs, I think something could be done without giving up the Big Three or Rudy/Przybilla.

Though I would be open to trading Przybilla or Rudy. It all depends on what the deal ended up being. Neither player is completely off the table for me.

Miller would have to want to come here and be happy with our appx $7 mil in cap space.

I would think if we are gunning hard for Rubio, that Miller would be less interested in signing with Portland, but that is not certain. Maybe he likes the idea of mentoring a future stud as his career is on the downslope. Most NBA players don't think that way coming off career years however.

As for trading with Memphis, there is that whole Darius Miles, lawsuit thingy that just HAS to be a barrier of some sort.

Assuming it isn't, even if we could get the #5 pick pretty cheap, as you suppose, what does that tell us? It tells us that the #5 pick isn't all that valuable. Thus, we can't rightly turn around and claim to Memphis that this shiny, new #5 pick is the shit. It either is or it isn't.

Assuming it isn't particularly valuable, the add-ons to the #5 pick to be able to vault to the #2, would have to be pretty good.

Memphis already has Conley and OJ Mayo. I don't think they would be doing backflips at the idea of obtaining Bayless OR even Rudy.

Maybe a combination of Pryzbilla and Outlaw would be a more appealing combination to them. Joel is a good match for the defensively challenged Gasol. And, Outlaw is popular in Memphis and has been linked before as a target of the Grizz.

As for Washington, I can't see Outlaw and Blake getting their attention. The bad contract idea is good, except that the only true bad contract the Wiz has is Arenas. So, we either have to send them a package with Rudy - possibly AND Bayless, or we have to forget the Andre Miller idea, and use the cap space to absorb part of the Arenas salary, and have Arenas as our PG, and Rubio as the backup.

Pryz and Outlaw plus the #5 doesn't seem enough for the #2. I would think Memphis would get better offers. And, I don't know what else we could add that makes sense for them? They have one sorta bad contract in Marko Jaric, 2 yrs $15mil. Marko and Darko (he he) for Outlaw and Joel?

Nah. I just don't see any of it working. Too bad. And I would have loved having Marko and Darko on our team........

Not.

 

[Minstrel]

Assuming it isn't, even if we could get the #5 pick pretty cheap, as you suppose, what does that tell us? It tells us that the #5 pick isn't all that valuable. Thus, we can't rightly turn around and claim to Memphis that this shiny, new #5 pick is the shit. It either is or it isn't.

Assuming it isn't particularly valuable, the add-ons to the #5 pick to be able to vault to the #2, would have to be pretty good.

The idea was that Washington would deal the #5 pick "cheap" in order to dump salary. I don't worry too much about taking on a bad salary since the team is anyway going to lack flexibility in terms of cap space, but it's a fairly significant benefit to a team that needs to shed salary. When you factor in that benefit, I don't think it's "cheap."

There's no contradiction in the turning-around element. It's neither "the shit" nor shit. It's a fairly valuable pick even to a team picking #2 unless that team has its heart set on someone likely to be gone by pick 5. I think Bayless is a pretty valuable prospect, well worth 3 spots, even in the top five, in what is generally perceived as a weak draft.

You are right in that Mayo and Conley make Bayless less attractive to them. I had completely blanked on Mayo for some reason. So that makes the "route" I suggested pretty unlikely. I was just clarifying that I don't think I was engaging in "double-think" on the #5 pick. I think Portland would be paying a reasonable cost for the #5 pick and then packaging it with a valuable prospect to move up three more spots. Neither of those requires the #5 pick to first be nothing special and then something wonderful.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Well, potentially something along the lines of this:

1. Buy a second first-round pick from some team.

2. Outlaw and Blake both expire at the end of next season. Giving them up, plus cash, for a large contract that Washington wants to get rid of, plus Portland's two first-round draft picks might get the #5 pick.

3. Trade the #5 pick plus Bayless to Memphis for the #2 pick. Bayless can be their shooting guard of the future, alongside Conley. Bayless fits that role, with less overlap, than Rubio would.

Just a possible route. I'm not saying it's likely that something like this could happen, but with Washington interested in trading their pick and Memphis open to potentially trading theirs, I think something could be done without giving up the Big Three or Rudy/Przybilla.

Though I would be open to trading Przybilla or Rudy. It all depends on what the deal ended up being. Neither player is completely off the table for me.

OJ Mayo...

 

[Minstrel]

OJ Mayo...

Quite. I said in a previous post that I blanked on him.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Quite. I said in a previous post that I blanked on him.

My bad.

 

[Minstrel]

My bad.

All good. It was a rather big oversight on my part.