Grade the offseason

[SlyPokerCat]

Really? Just one of them needs to be to have a real shot at a top-4 WC seed, we have seen it with Dame, CJ, Nurk and athletic defensive wings. The Blazers have Dame and Nurk, Grant / Nas / GP2 / Hart are as good as, if not better, defensively than Aminu/Harkless, GP2 can do the guard defense that Seth Curry did at times when they were the 3rd seed.

If just Simons gives you the same kind of production that CJ gave you in 2018, it's about the same team and thus immediatly capable of a 4th seed. They need 2 of them to pop to really contend, but top-4 seed? Nah.

Who are they gonna overtake for that top 4 seed?

Warriors
Memphis
Minnesota
Clippers
Denver
Dallas
Phoenix
New Orleans
Lakers

Some teams will have health issues. And i won't argue we can finish above some of those teams. When you compare our talent to some of those teams, or acknowledge that some teams have better stars (doncic, jokic), i just don't see us getting top 4. I think we are more likely a play in team.

 

[andalusian]

Who are they gonna overtake for that top 4 seed?

Warriors
Memphis
Minnesota
Clippers
Denver
Dallas
Phoenix
New Orleans
Lakers

Some teams will have health issues. And i won't argue we can finish above some of those teams. When you compare our talent to some of those teams, or acknowledge that some teams have better stars (doncic, jokic), i just don't see us getting top 4. I think we are more likely a play in team.

Two different questions. One is, they must have all 3 popping to be a top-4 seed, the other, they can be a top-4 seed with just one of them being.

I have no clue which ones it will be, but if the Blazers are mostly healthy, and one of these 3 really pops, they certainly can be a top-4 seed.

If you are asking me, the only one I am sure will be above the Blazers next year are Memphis, they are young, no real health issues and hungry.

All other teams can go either way (just like the Blazers do).

- GSW is older, lost a couple of significant role players, maybe not as motivated. In the past, Curry going down would not have mattered. As currently constructed, if Curry goes down for a portion of the season, they can very easily slip a bit.
- Minnesota is a great experiment. I suspect they are the new Utah Jazz, but even that team was only 5th seed last year.
- Clippers if healthy might be the best team in basketball. Can you really know that Kawahi and PG13 are going to be healthy for an entire year?
- Denver - assuming Jokic remains healthy are dependent on MPJ and Murray's health. Can easily go either way.
- Dallas will be interesting. They gained Wood but lost Brunson. They are even more dependent on their star than the Blazers.
- Phoenix has an even older CP3 and they will likely downgrade from Ayton. Will likely be very good, but would not be a surprise if father time finally catches CP3 and they are not as good with just Booker + Ayton's replacement
- NOP - if Zion is healthy they are super dangerous. But, will he be?
- Lakers - Another aging team that is still, as currently constructed - with pieces that do not work together. They must have Lebron keeping on trucking but are really certainly better than the Blazers only if AD is healthy.

Now, my guess is that with reasonable health and one of these 3 (probably Simons) really popping, the Blazers end up as the 6th seed. From there to a couple of teams having health issues whatever else and them being a 4th seed is not a huge surprise.

So, yes, I am standing by claim. One of them popping and reasonable health is enough to make them a top-4 seed. It is not a guarantee, but it is certainly different from the idea that they need all 3 of Simons, Nas and Sharpe to pop to be that.

 

[Natebishop3]

Who are they gonna overtake for that top 4 seed?

Warriors
Memphis
Minnesota
Clippers
Denver
Dallas
Phoenix
New Orleans
Lakers

Some teams will have health issues. And i won't argue we can finish above some of those teams. When you compare our talent to some of those teams, or acknowledge that some teams have better stars (doncic, jokic), i just don't see us getting top 4. I think we are more likely a play in team.

There are so many question marks in the west. The only team I'm confident in will be Golden State. I don't see the Warriors slowing down at all.

Minnesota - has a ton of talent, but I'm not really sold on pairing KAT and Gobert. It will be interesting to see how they come together.
Clippers - are going to be healthy for the first time. I think they'll be top 4 as long as PG13 and Kawhi are ready to go.
Phoenix - I think the Suns are going to take a step back. Paul is getting ancient and if they lose Ayton, I think that team won't be nearly as potent.
Memphis - I think they'll be top 4.
Denver - going to hinge on their health. If everyone is healthy, they're a potent team. Could easily be top 4.
Dallas - they lost some talent. I think last year was a fluke. I don't see them as a top 4 team.
New Orleans - this team could be a wild card. They have the talent to be top 4 and they were playing very well.
Lakers - gonna hinge on health and desire, really. But that team has a lot of issues.

Really don't know where the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, and Suns will be. Any of those teams have the talent to, in theory, be top 4.

 

[SlyPokerCat]

Two different questions. One is, they must have all 3 popping to be a top-4 seed, the other, they can be a top-4 seed with just one of them being.

I have no clue which ones it will be, but if the Blazers are mostly healthy, and one of these 3 really pops, they certainly can be a top-4 seed.

If you are asking me, the only one I am sure will be above the Blazers next year are Memphis, they are young, no real health issues and hungry.

All other teams can go either way (just like the Blazers do).

- GSW is older, lost a couple of significant role players, maybe not as motivated. In the past, Curry going down would not have mattered. As currently constructed, if Curry goes down for a portion of the season, they can very easily slip a bit.
- Minnesota is a great experiment. I suspect they are the new Utah Jazz, but even that team was only 5th seed last year.
- Clippers if healthy might be the best team in basketball. Can you really know that Kawahi and PG13 are going to be healthy for an entire year?
- Denver - assuming Jokic remains healthy are dependent on MPJ and Murray's health. Can easily go either way.
- Dallas will be interesting. They gained Wood but lost Brunson. They are even more dependent on their star than the Blazers.
- Phoenix has an even older CP3 and they will likely downgrade from Ayton. Will likely be very good, but would not be a surprise if father time finally catches CP3 and they are not as good with just Booker + Ayton's replacement
- NOP - if Zion is healthy they are super dangerous. But, will he be?
- Lakers - Another aging team that is still, as currently constructed - with pieces that do not work together. They must have Lebron keeping on trucking but are really certainly better than the Blazers only if AD is healthy.

Now, my guess is that with reasonable health and one of these 3 (probably Simons) really popping, the Blazers end up as the 6th seed. From there to a couple of teams having health issues whatever else and them being a 4th seed is not a huge surprise.

So, yes, I am standing by claim. One of them popping and reasonable health is enough to make them a top-4 seed. It is not a guarantee, but it is certainly different from the idea that they need all 3 of Simons, Nas and Sharpe to pop to be that.

I just don't see it.

The Warriors lost some pieces but they got Divincenzo and Wiseman should play this year. Kuminga and Moody likely take steps forward too.

Dallas lost Brunson but they got Wood and people forget Hardaway Jr was hurt and should be back for them this year. He is one of their better players.

I agree there are questions with teams and health, but we just as easily could have health issues.

Talent wise, i don't see us higher than 7-10. I could see us get the 6th seed too and if all things click the 5th seed, but in no way do I see a 4th seed or higher unless we win the lottery by many other teams having the worst scenarios happen to them.

 

[Natebishop3]

I just don't see it.

The Warriors lost some pieces but they got Divincenzo and Wiseman should play this year. Kuminga and Moody likely take steps forward too.

Dallas lost Brunson but they got Wood and people forget Hardaway Jr was hurt and should be back for them this year. He is one of their better players.

I agree there are questions with teams and health, but we just as easily could have health issues.

Talent wise, i don't see us higher than 7-10. I could see us get the 6th seed too and if all things click the 5th seed, but in no way do I see a 4th seed or higher unless we win the lottery by many other teams having the worst scenarios happen to them.

Dame would have to go super saiyan once again, and that's going to get harder and harder as he gets older. We made the playoffs so many times simply on the back of Damian Lillard. How many more years of that does he have in him?

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Dame would have to go super saiyan once again, and that's going to get harder and harder as he gets older. We made the playoffs so many times simply on the back of Damian Lillard. How many more years of that does he have in him?

I do understand his drawbacks but you are not giving CJ any credit. Teams had to cover him. That helped Dame a bunch. If they left CJ alone we all watched what he could do to a team. It wasn't just Dame though i know he was a giant part. CJ deserves some of the credit for making the playoffs year after year as well.
I'm talking about making the playoffs. CJ also had some good games in the playoffs as well.

 

[Natebishop3]

I do understand his drawbacks but you are not giving CJ any credit. Teams had to cover him. That helped Dame a bunch. If they left CJ alone we all watched what he could do to a team. It wasn't just Dame though i know he was a giant part. CJ deserves some of the credit for making the playoffs year after year as well.
I'm talking about making the playoffs. CJ also had some good games in the playoffs as well.

To me Ant = CJ.

Regardless of CJ's contributions, the team still needed Dame to go nuclear several times for them to make the playoffs. There were so many seasons where everyone counted us out, and then Dame would take it personal and start dropping 50 point games after the All-Star break. Fact is, those teams typically weren't that great the first half of the season (with CJ) and then Dame would kick it up a notch and we'd squeak into the postseason.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

To me Ant = CJ.

Regardless of CJ's contributions, the team still needed Dame to go nuclear several times for them to make the playoffs. There were so many seasons where everyone counted us out, and then Dame would take it personal and start dropping 50 point games after the All-Star break. Fact is, those teams typically weren't that great the first half of the season (with CJ) and then Dame would kick it up a notch and we'd squeak into the postseason.

IDK???
I remember a couple #3 and #4-5 seeds. Seems like we were hoping for a loss at the end of one season? That doesn't sound like "Squeaking" into the playoffs?

 

[Natebishop3]

IDK???
I remember a couple #3 and #4-5 seeds. Seems like we were hoping for a loss at the end of one season? That doesn't sound like "Squeaking" into the playoffs?

Several times being:
2016-2017 (8th seed)
2019-2020 (8th seed)

And really I was also thinking about 2015-2016 because that team started out 16/24 and Dame was snubbed for the All-Star team. It was the first year after LMA left us. Nobody thought we would make the playoffs. Dame basically put us on his back and got us the 5th seed and we beat the Clips in the first round.

 

[Pinwheel1]

A lot of question marks for this team for sure. But some of them could bounce our way.

Can Walker and/ or Watford play well at PF to allow Grant to play some 3? Or can Walker play some 3?

Or can Hart, who I prefer at guard, actually be better at the 3? At 215 lbs he is thick enough and he plays bigger than his height.
I think they went after GP2 because they felt Hart was a better 3 than anyone else they could add. And by getting Gp2 they don't lose the D in the backcourt that Hart provides

Little is another huge question mark. Can he stay healthy? I see no reason why not, but I hate that he does not have a healthy summer to work on his game.

 

[Kell]

Has to be incomplete until you see what you have in a healthy sharpe and the opening game roster to truly judge the off season from my prospective.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Several times being:
2016-2017 (8th seed)
2019-2020 (8th seed)

So we call both #3 seeds several and the three 4th and 5th seeds a bunch?

I'm not taking anything away from Lillard and the way he played his heart out to carry the team. This is why he is a supermax player. I just feel your original statement was all Dame and forgetting CJ carried quite a bit of that load as well.

Also you just said Ant=CJ. Well again those players might be comparable production wise but we all know CJ was lethal from 3 as he carried very close and in some cases over 40% from range for many years. I'm hoping Ant can continue to be that effective for as many years. Last year he did very well at just over 40% on almost 8 shots a game. The big difference might be that 2pt percentage? CJ was pretty much at 50% most years. Ant was close last year but not quite that effective to this point.

I had a conversation recently about CJ and Donovan Mitchell with @STOMP close to this subject? Ant won a dunk contest. CJ was never even invited. Lets hope Ant truly is just as good and also way more athletic.
We know he isn't nearly as much of negative aspect as Mitchell.

Blazers might be better off with Ant. If that is the case i hope Lillard just as much help from the rest of the team.