Dumpy's Key to the game:
The first quarter.
(I'll get there in a sec).
Since two horrible losses in Game 5 and Game 7 (by a total of 45 points), the Wizards haven't played horribly. In their last seven games, they've been outscored by a total of just 23 points, yet their record is just 1-6. They've lost games by 4, 4, 5, and 7 points. Contrast that to the Nets, who seem to win all the close games these days.
Here's the kicker: They are slow starters. In those seven games, they have fallen behind in the first quarter in five of them, by a total of 22 points--almost exactly the amount they've been outscored overall. Against Orlando, they fell behind by 13 after 1 quarter, only to lose by 15. Against the Knicks, they fell behind by six, only to lose by five. Against the Hawks, they fell behind by two, to lose by four. Against Miami, they fell behind by 6, to lose by seven. They exceptions: Against Atlanta in their last game, they fell behind by 11, but crawled back to lose by just four. Then there were two games they actually led after the first quarter: against Golden State (leading by 4, won by 24), and against Houston (leading by 12 (!), lost by 12). Those are the only two games all year they have led after the first quarter, and they won one of them.
So the key is the first quarter. If the Nets can lead after one, it seems as though they will have an easier road the rest of the way. The Wizards seem incapabable of mounting a comeback, even when they are just down by a few points.
Another key:
The Wizards are the WORST three-point shooting team in the league. The Nets will, of course, give them open looks. If they hit their open three-point shots, the game could be close.