Houston fans: Robinson

[jlprk]

When the Rockets are league champs for years. they'll look at 1-time all-star rebounding specialist Robinson and say, you gotta give something to get something.

 

[RoyToy]

It's a good thing they have you to represent their entire fanbase, right?

I just think logically.

 

[Natebishop3]

When the Rockets are league champs for years. they'll look at 1-time all-star rebounding specialist Robinson and say, you gotta give something to get something.

I sincerely doubt that. They might win one, but more than one? Probably not.

 

[Boob-No-More]

So you don't think there would be regret for giving him up without any real value in return if Robinson turns out to be a really good player?

No, I don't. I think Robinson can develop into a good player, but I don't think he'll ever be a top 2 player on a team that advances in the playoffs. Dwight Howard is.

In the last 16 years, Houston has only advanced past the 1st round once - in 2009, the year they beat the Blazers, and missed the playoffs 8 times. That's even worse than the Blazers (advanced past the 1st round twice and missed the playoffs 7 of the last 16 years). I think Houston fans want to see progress, and they want to see it now. Dwight Howard and James Harden give them a solid chance to get past the 1st round. Thomas Robinson wouldn't give them that any time soon, if ever.

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

No, I don't. I think Robinson can develop into a good player, but I don't think he'll ever be a top 2 player on a team that advances in the playoffs. Dwight Howard is.

In the last 16 years, Houston has only advanced past the 1st round once - in 2009, the year they beat the Blazers, and missed the playoffs 8 times. That's even worse than the Blazers (advanced past the 1st round twice and missed the playoffs 7 of the last 16 years). I think Houston fans want to see progress, and they want to see it now. Dwight Howard and James Harden give them a solid chance to get past the 1st round. Thomas Robinson wouldn't give them that any time soon, if ever.

BNM

I'm not really looking at it as Dwight for Robinson though. This wasn't a trade. They needed to clear some cap, and I think I heard it was as low as 100k to offer Dwight a max deal.

My point is that they would regret giving TRob up for nothing if he went on to be an All-Star.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

I just think logically.

Not typically, but on this one you do.

 

[Natebishop3]

Example:

Blazer fans lament the fact that we gave up Moses Malone for nothing. We won a championship with Bill Walton, but we still lament giving up Malone for nothing.

Obviously these are different situations, but we still could have found a way to keep Malone, and I suspect Houston could have found a way to keep Robinson if they wanted to.

 

[RoyToy]

There's no chance he'll be an all-star and teams don't care about giving up role players.

It's a nice thought, though.

 

[Natebishop3]

There's no chance he'll be an all-star and teams don't care about giving up role players.

It's a nice thought, though.

So you've completely determined his future in the NBA after one season and five preseason games? That's impressive. Want to give me some lotto numbers to try?

 

[jlprk]

Blazer fans lament the fact that we gave up Moses Malone for nothing. We won a championship with Bill Walton, but we still lament giving up Malone for nothing.

Obviously these are different situations, but we still could have found a way to keep Malone, and I suspect Houston could have found a way to keep Robinson if they wanted to.

Only Blazer fans who weren't around lament it. The lamenting just started maybe 10 years ago.

Some players, like Moses Malone and Dominique Wilkins, see their reputations inflate long after they retire. Johnny-come-lately fans judge them on statistics, because they didn't witness their one-dimensionality.

The opposite happens, e.g. Bill Walton, with players whose strengths were not recorded in box scores.

 

[RoyToy]

So you've completely determined his future in the NBA after one season and five preseason games? That's impressive. Want to give me some lotto numbers to try?

I have a pretty good idea what kind of career he will have, yes.

 

[Boob-No-More]

My point is that they would regret giving TRob up for nothing if he went on to be an All-Star.

He won't, so they won't.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Example:

Blazer fans lament the fact that we gave up Moses Malone for nothing. We won a championship with Bill Walton, but we still lament giving up Malone for nothing.

Obviously these are different situations, but we still could have found a way to keep Malone, and I suspect Houston could have found a way to keep Robinson if they wanted to.

Moses Malone was a 1st ballot Hall of Famer, 3 time NBA MVP, finals MVP and 12 time NBA all-star. Do you really believe Thomas Robinson will have a similar career? I'm not seeing it.

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

Moses Malone was a 1st ballot Hall of Famer, 3 time NBA MVP, finals MVP and 12 time NBA all-star. Do you really believe Thomas Robinson will have a similar career? I'm not seeing it.

BNM

Not many people will have a career like Moses Malone, but they were both the 5th pick in the draft and were both traded during their rookie years. I just think it's ludicrous that people are already writing Robinson's career for him. To say that there's no chance that Houston fans regret trading him at any point is pretty absurd. I don't like to deal in absolutes like that.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Only Blazer fans who weren't around lament it. The lamenting just started maybe 10 years ago.

Some players, like Moses Malone and Dominique Wilkins, see their reputations inflate long after they retire. Johnny-come-lately fans judge them on statistics, because they didn't witness their one-dimensionality.

The opposite happens, e.g. Bill Walton, with players whose strengths were not recorded in box scores.

Yeah, Moses was a one-dimensional 3-time NBA MVP. He lead the league in rebounding 6 times and averaged over 24ppg 7 times. In 1982-83, he average 24.5ppg, 15.3 RPG and was 1st team all-defense. If I'm doing the math right, that's 3-dimensions (scoring, rebounding and defense) right there.

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

Yeah, Moses was a one-dimensions 3-time NBA MVP. He lead the league in rebounding 6 times and averaged over 24ppg 7 times. In 1982-83, he average 24.5ppg, 15.3 RPG and was 1st team all-defense. If I'm doing the math right, that's 3-dimensions (scoring, rebounding and defense) right there.

BNM

You made the mistake of taking his post seriously.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Not many people will have a career like Moses Malone, but they were both the 5th pick in the draft and were both traded during their rookie years. I just think it's ludicrous that people are already writing Robinson's career for him. To say that there's no chance that Houston fans regret trading him at any point is pretty absurd. I don't like to deal in absolutes like that.

There's a WHOLE lot of middle ground between writing Robinson off and a Hall of Fame 3-time MVP career. I think it's safe to say that Thomas Robinson will fall somewhere in that middle ground. I think he can become a solid NBA player, but I don't think he'll ever be a superstar, or even a star. Right now, I'd be happy to see him develop into a very good role player.

With Donatas Montiejunas, Terrence Jones and Greg Smith, Houston has a surplus of young depth at power forward - and all three of them outplayed TRob last season. Plus, they also have Dwight Howard and Omar Asik at center. Exactly when was Thomas Robinson going to see any PT in Houston?

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

There's a WHOLE lot of middle ground between writing Robinson off and a Hall of Fame 3-time MVP career. I think it's safe to say that Thomas Robinson will fall somewhere in that middle ground. I think he can become a solid NBA player, but I don't think he'll ever be a superstar, or even a star. Right now, I'd be happy to see him develop into a very good role player.

With Donatas Montiejunas, Terrence Jones and Greg Smith, Houston has a surplus of young depth at power forward - and all three of them outplayed TRob last season. Plus, they also have Dwight Howard and Omar Asik at center. Exactly when was Thomas Robinson going to see any PT in Houston?

BNM

I only used Moses because he was an example, albeit an extreme one, of a fanbase regretting a trade even after winning a championship.

You are right, Houston has all those young bigs, but so did the Blazers when they traded Jermaine and many people still bitch about that move. Jermaine couldn't get minutes on our team, he went to Indy, blew up, and the rest is history.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I only used Moses because he was an example, albeit an extreme one, of a fanbase regretting a trade even after winning a championship.

You are right, Houston has all those young bigs, but so did the Blazers when they traded Jermaine and many people still bitch about that move. Jermaine couldn't get minutes on our team, he went to Indy, blew up, and the rest is history.

Actually, the Blazers didn't have a surplus of young bigs when the traded Jermaine. In fact, he was the ONLY young big man on our roster. Sheed, BGrant, and Sabonis were all established veterans. Those teams actually had a great balance of youth and experience. Unfortunately, after losing Game 7 of the WCF to the Lakers Whitsitt panicked, mortgaged the future and made the team way too old by bringing in Dale Davis and a severely overweight, over-the-hill, cocaine addicted Shawn Kemp.

Even still, it's not like we gave up on Jermaine after a disappointing rookie year (like Houston and Sacramento both did with TRob). He couldn't get off the bench in 4 full seasons with the Blazers. Houston had TRob for 19 games and invested next to nothing is his development. They could have kept him around for 3 more seasons, but with the chance to get Dwight Howard and three other, more productive 21 - 22-year old power forwards on their roster, they dealt him from a position of surplus. There is no way they could concurrently develop 4 young power forwards - and with Howard and Asik both on the roster, there wouldn't be any center minutes for Motiejunas or Smith. So, they dealt the one who had the least productive, least promising rookie year. Makes sense to me.

And, as much as I'd love to see Robinson blow up into something special, it's not going to happen instantaneously, like when Jermaine finally got a chance to play significant minutes in Indy. Jermaine had been practicing against Sheed, BGrant and Sabonis for 4 years before he was traded. Talk about great on the job training! In Houston, Robinson had less than half season practicing against two other rookies and a second year player.

BNM

 

[MickZagger]

I think Kostas Papanikolaou will help salve their burns if this happens.

You're just like a women. Fawning all over these European guys.

You must be a sucker for fur coats.

 

[MickZagger]

Reggie Evans is an elite rebounder.

Reggie Evans is a ratard.

 

[magnifier661]

I could really see T rob being a 8/8 player. That's going to be a good bench player. I don't see him being a "block party" type; but he will hold his own defensively. I doubt too many PF will be able to back him down.

 

[Natebishop3]

I could really see T rob being a 8/8 player. That's going to be a good bench player. I don't see him being a "block party" type; but he will hold his own defensively. I doubt too many PF will be able to back him down.

I think he could actually average 10 boards off the bench. Scoring.... well.... I don't know. Maybe 5-6 points this season?

 

[jlprk]

Moses Malone sucked. After many years of coaching, he learned to jack up his stats with selfishness. He had ownership over every opportunity in his vicinity to rebound or score. Teammates had to stay out of the way.

When the Blazers had him years before that, he was 1% the player Walton was because of basketball IQ. Not knowing of Walton's future injuries, but knowing Malone would want a lot of money eventually yet need enormous coaching effort, the team traded him for more than they had given for him. (I recall it was 2 1sts for 1, but I could be wrong.)

 

[magnifier661]

I think he could actually average 10 boards off the bench. Scoring.... well.... I don't know. Maybe 5-6 points this season?

I was schooled earlier when I said he could get 10 boards as a reserve. You should look up the last one that did that. I was surprised

 

[Natebishop3]

I was schooled earlier when I said he could get 10 boards as a reserve. You should look up the last one that did that. I was surprised

The guy rebounds at a ridiculous rate.... but we don't really know how many minutes he'll get, so you're probably right.

 

[magnifier661]

The guy rebounds at a ridiculous rate.... but we don't really know how many minutes he'll get, so you're probably right.

He does actually. I think if he can average 15-18 minutes a game; he's got a good shot

 

[BlazerWookee]

Houston will regret getting stuck paying Howard all that money once he quits on them like he did in LA.

 

[Boob-No-More]

The guy rebounds at a ridiculous rate.... but we don't really know how many minutes he'll get, so you're probably right.

He does actually. I think if he can average 15-18 minutes a game; he's got a good shot

I like what I'm seeing from Thomas Robinson, but you guys need a serious reality check. Unless LaMarcus Aldridge suffers a major injury, or gets traded, there is no way Thomas Robinson averages anywhere close to 10 RPG. His TRB% his rookie season was 17.1. It was a little better (17.7) in the 19 games he played for Houston. That's better than average, but it's not close to "elite". Reggie Evans had a TRB% of 26.7, Omar Asik was at 22.0 and J.J. Hickson was at 20.7 - and those guys all did it as starters playing significant minutes. Unless he can make the jump from TRB% = 17.7 to > 20.0, he's not an elite rebounder.

And even if he does improve his TRB%, unless he plays starter like minutes, he won't average 10 rpg (or even 8 rpg). For example, last season DeMarcus Cousins had a TRB% of 18.7 (significantly better than Robinson's 17.1), played 30.5 MPG and did not average 10 RPG.

Think about that. Even if he did improve his TRB% AND play 30 MPG, he still probably wouldn't average 10 RPG. If he plays 15 - 18 MPG, even with a significantly improved TRB%, he'll be in the 6 - 7 RPG range max. That's actually quite good for a bench player, not not close to the 10 RPG you guys are talking about. Another way to look at it is: in 13.0 MPG for Houston, he averaged 4.1 RPG. At that same rate, if you bump his PT up to 18.0 MPG, he would average 5.68 RPG. So, like I said, unless he's playing starter minutes, it will take significant improvement just to get in the 6 - 7 RPG range. To average 10 RPG in only 18 minutes, he'd have to shatter the all-time TRB% record. He may be a good rebounder, but I'm not ready to predict he'll be the best rebounder in the entire history of the NBA in his second season as a pro.

BNM

 

[magnifier661]

I like what I'm seeing from Thomas Robinson, but you guys need a serious reality check. Unless LaMarcus Aldridge suffers a major injury, or gets traded, there is no way Thomas Robinson averages anywhere close to 10 RPG. His TRB% his rookie season was 17.1. It was a little better (17.7) in the 19 games he played for Houston. That's better than average, but it's not close to "elite". Reggie Evans had a TRB% of 26.7, Omar Asik was at 22.0 and J.J. Hickson was at 20.7 - and those guys all did it as starters playing significant minutes. Unless he can make the jump from TRB% = 17.7 to > 20.0, he's not an elite rebounder.

And even if he does improve his TRB%, unless he plays starter like minutes, he won't average 10 rpg (or even 8 rpg). For example, last season DeMarcus Cousins had a TRB% of 18.7 (significantly better than Robinson's 17.1), played 30.5 MPG and did not average 10 RPG.

Think about that. Even if he did improve his TRB% AND play 30 MPG, he still probably wouldn't average 10 RPG. If he plays 15 - 18 MPG, even with a significantly improved TRB%, he'll be in the 6 - 7 RPG range max. That's actually quite good for a bench player, not not close to the 10 RPG you guys are talking about. Another way to look at it is: in 13.0 MPG for Houston, he averaged 4.1 RPG. At that same rate, if you bump his PT up to 18.0 MPG, he would average 5.68 RPG. So, like I said, unless he's playing starter minutes, it will take significant improvement just to get in the 6 - 7 RPG range. To average 10 RPG in only 18 minutes, he'd have to shatter the all-time TRB% record. He may be a good rebounder, but I'm not ready to predict he'll be the best rebounder in the entire history of the NBA in his second season as a pro.

BNM

Way to shatter my homerism to the ground. I. Hate. You...