I want to keep Hickson more than ever: Dynamic duo frontcourt!

[RR7]

Hickson is looking for a big time contract. If a team shows interest and let's it be known they want to re-sign him for big bucks (do we have his bird rights to trade with him?), I think Hickson would be open to a trade.

Don't get me wrong, I love Hickson's energy and he would be an ideal 6th man off the bench. But resigning him this summer will take big bucks and kill any chance we have to bring in a starter through free agency ( I think)

He can veto a trade because his bird rights do not go with him. So he's likely only going to accept a trade either to a better situation, or a team with a lot of cap space.

 

[blue9]

He could be an ideal starting PF.

 

[RR7]

He could be an ideal starting PF.

alongside what type of C?

 

[Mediocre Man]

I'm really curious to see how he'd fare if he were playing against other PFs. Does the idea of him playing at PF change your opinion of him?
I agree it's a tricky situation - the one-year deal may be Olshey's biggest mistake so far. It really puts us in a lose/lose position. Hickson is playing himself into a big contract which we may not want to match, so trading him with an eye to the future makes sense. But then Hickson really is integral to our success thus far - regardless of whether he's a wash statistically. Trading him could potentially torpedo this team. And then do we have to worry about what sort of message it sends to the rest of the team? I would like to think that if we as fans understand the situation, that the players would also understand the sort of position we're in - but they've got more emotions tied up into it, and emotions tend to overrule rational thinking.
Perhaps we trade LMA so that we can get more in return and open up even more cap space which would allow us to "overspend" on Hickson plus another player or two?

If you go to 82 games.com, it tells what his PER is vs both centers and PF's. Not concrete by any means but about as close as it comes

 

[Pinwheel1]

You are aware we can't trade him without his consent right?

That and the fact that you are not going to get any value for him since he is an UFA.

I guess there is a chance that some really good team like the Clippers could lose their starting PF (Griffin) for the season and decide to trade us a back up (Bledsoe) hoping to still reach the finals. JJ would OK that deal and everyone would be happy.

But now we are back to fantasy island.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Why would those teams want him he's not a difference maker?

He's not a difference maker to our team, Eric

 

[KingSpeed]

Aldridge can though. I still don't understand why oshley just uses Aldridge at center

Olshey's not the coach

Hickson is looking for a big time contract. If a team shows interest and let's it be known they want to re-sign him for big bucks (do we have his bird rights to trade with him?), I think Hickson would be open to a trade.

Don't get me wrong, I love Hickson's energy and he would be an ideal 6th man off the bench. But resigning him this summer will take big bucks and kill any chance we have to bring in a starter through free agency ( I think)

We don't need another starter. Our starters are good.

 

[RR7]

If you go to 82 games.com, it tells what his PER is vs both centers and PF's. Not concrete by any means but about as close as it comes

looking at those, he is relatively equal with the opposing C, but outrebounds them by about 3 rebounds per 48, which is his role

 

[KingSpeed]

He's not a difference maker to our team, Eric

Yes he is

 

[Mediocre Man]

looking at those, he is relatively equal with the opposing C, but outrebounds them by about 3 rebounds per 48, which is his role

Oh, he is an elite rebounder to be sure. I am speaking purely of on floor production

 

[magnifier661]

MM u just can't trade hickson. It's either him walking and we free up cap or we resign and lose cap space. That's the real question. He is unrestricted and will have no incentive for a sign and trade because the bird rights will not transfer. If we renounce; then he's good as gone. That means any team can sign him for as much as we can. Now if we don't renounce; we have leverage to resign with bird options.

 

[RR7]

Oh, he is an elite rebounder to be sure. I am speaking purely of on floor production

Just kind of playing devil's advocate on it, but isn't having an elite rebounder, while otherwise playing his opponent even a pretty good starter to have? Especially when it's one of the "role player" starters. I think most teams would take that, and you have your PG, SF and PF as your 3 you expect to ideally make up any differences against their counterparts.

 

[RR7]

MM u just can't trade hickson. It's either him walking and we free up cap or we resign and lose cap space. That's the real question. He is unrestricted and will have no incentive for a sign and trade because the bird rights will not transfer. If we renounce; then he's good as gone. That means any team can sign him for as much as we can. Now if we don't renounce; we have leverage to resign with bird options.

sign and trade isn't being brought up at all.

 

[Mediocre Man]

MM u just can't trade hickson. It's either him walking and we free up cap or we resign and lose cap space. That's the real question. He is unrestricted and will have no incentive for a sign and trade because the bird rights will not transfer. If we renounce; then he's good as gone. That means any team can sign him for as much as we can. Now if we don't renounce; we have leverage to resign with bird options.

You absolutely can trade Hickson. Why can't you trade Hickson? He would embrace playing for a contender and a nudge nudge wink wink deal

 

[Mediocre Man]

Just kind of playing devil's advocate on it, but isn't having an elite rebounder, while otherwise playing his opponent even a pretty good starter to have? Especially when it's one of the "role player" starters. I think most teams would take that, and you have your PG, SF and PF as your 3 you expect to ideally make up any differences against their counterparts.

Absolutely a great start. I love 4 mm Hickson. I do not love 8-9 mm Hickson

 

[RR7]

Absolutely a great start. I love 4 mm Hickson. I do not love 8-9 mm Hickson

yea, I don't like him at 8-9 either. I'm always torn on what I'd like next to Aldridge, but I think a Wes type contract is fair for Hickson. Whether someone decides to throw him more, we'll see.

 

[magnifier661]

You absolutely can trade Hickson. Why can't you trade Hickson? He would embrace playing for a contender and a nudge nudge wink wink deal

And which team that contends would trade their piece for this nudge nudge wink wink deal? Hickson for bosh? Maybe for Perkins? Lol

 

[Mediocre Man]

And which team that contends would trade their piece for this nudge nudge wink wink deal? Hickson for bosh? Maybe for Perkins? Lol

You are being silly now

 

[magnifier661]

You are being silly now

Silly is thinking we can trade him buddy. You are a smart man. Be smart and let's talk about reality. Assuming hickson can be traded is a pipe dream.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Silly is thinking we can trade him buddy. You are a smart man. Be smart and let's talk about reality. Assuming hickson can be traded is a pipe dream.

Why is that?

I'd also rather trade him after the moratorium is over for Hibbert and still have money to sign someone

 

[RR7]

Silly is thinking we can trade him buddy. You are a smart man. Be smart and let's talk about reality. Assuming hickson can be traded is a pipe dream.

what are you talking about? We CAN trade him. We can't just send him anywhere we want, but it is reality that it is possible to trade him.

 

[blue9]

alongside what type of C?

A C with a bit of range and passing ability. Cousins comes to mind. Ha ha!
A C like Sabas would be ideal. But even if it were a paint-clogging C I think it'd work as long as they had post moves and were a threat to score around the hoop - Hickson would be weak-side to clean up any misses. And Hickson has mid-range on his shot. Ha, check this out - FG% from 16-23' for our starters:
http://www.hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx?team=POR&type=pg&posi=%&yr=2013&gp2=20&mins=20

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Why would it have to be a nudge nudge wink wink deal. When howard was being shopped, teams were not intersted because Howard made it clear he was not intersted in resigning with them.

If Hickson gives the Blazers a wish list of teams he would resign with, and teams that are going to trade for him and give up value are probaly going to want him locked up long term.

Does it have to be hush about it . . . seems like Howard's situation was all out in the open.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Yes we can trade him, but again it comes down to realistic expectation on what you can get in return for someone who will be a free agent after 2 months. Again I say our best bet is someone who is playoff bound who is desperate for a big
to help this year. Otherwise what we get back will be of low value.

Now if you do not want JJ back then then trading him just hurts the team for the last two months of this year. (And tells the players that management is not committed to winning now. (Which may not be true but it is how they will perceive it.)

 

[Harry's Raincoat]

I think a small bit of clarification is in order MM. We have Hickson at $4M/yr. His cap hold is $7.6M. It remains on the cap until he's either resigned at a different number or renounced (off the books).

We'll have ~$12m in Cap space IF all are renounced on ending contracts (Hickson, Babbitt, Smith, EWill, Jeffries, Pavlovic, Price).
Hickson's Cap Hold is taken from the $12M. So, its really only $5M in cap space unless we renounce Hickson.

If we sign UFA (someone, anyone worth big contract), then we have to renounce Hickson to sign to over $5M.

Our best play - is to sign MLE type player (Matthews redeaux) and resign Hickson after UFA with bird rights (to any amount). $12M (Cap space) - $5M (MLE player) = $7M (Hickson Cap Hold).

IMO there aren't many players this summer worth our full cap space. We're better off keeping Hickson and adding a 6th-7th-8th man to the squad via MLE.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Something else for the debate:
http://www.blazersedge.com/2013/1/8...j-j-hickson-tops-list-of-overrated-rebounders

The following five players are examples of this phenomenon -- their individual rebounding numbers are impressive, but they don't seem to add much to their teams' rebounding performance when they're on the floor.

J.J. Hickson, Portland Trail Blazers

Superficially speaking, Hickson appears to be one of the league's best rebounders, averaging 10.8 boards per game (sixth-best in the NBA) with a 21.7 rebounding percentage (fourth-best). However, there's plenty of evidence that many of those rebounds have simply been stolen from his teammates, not opponents. Only Anderson Varejao and Reggie Evans have a bigger differential between their own rebounding rates and those of their teammates, but at least Varejao and Evans lead their teams to above-average rebound percentages while on the floor -- and improve their teams' rebounding when in the game. Despite Hickson's gaudy individual stats, the Blazers have a negative net rebound rate with him in the lineup, and they actually rebound at a better rate when he's not on the floor.

There's no denying that Hickson brings energy and he snares a lot of offensive rebounds, but as MM has brought up several times in this thread, his advanced stats point to him being very, very overrated. He's the perfect trade piece in my opinion, because his value is high relative to his salary, but that ratio is probably about to run out in very short order.

If I were Olshey I'd be scouring the trade market for a more defensive minded center to pair with Aldridge -- maybe that's just for the short term if Leonard works out down the line, but I don't think he's bankable as a future starter -- A guy who can truly help protect the rim on this team would fill a glaring need, moreso than keeping Hickson paired with Aldridge long-term.

 

[magnifier661]

what are you talking about? We CAN trade him. We can't just send him anywhere we want, but it is reality that it is possible to trade him.

Yes technically we can trade him with his consent; but why would hickson want to be traded to a team that would most likely need to send back quality and make their team weaker? And what would we get in exchange? I mean he would want to go to a winning organization so the first rounder is weak return. Most likely we would want a center in return and teams with capable. Enters want to keep them.

Fact is teams would just hold off and try getting him via free agency. Then they wouldn't have to give anything up for him.

 

[magnifier661]

I think a small bit of clarification is in order MM. We have Hickson at $4M/yr. His cap hold is $7.6M. It remains on the cap until he's either resigned at a different number or renounced (off the books).

We'll have ~$12m in Cap space IF all are renounced on ending contracts (Hickson, Babbitt, Smith, EWill, Jeffries, Pavlovic, Price).
Hickson's Cap Hold is taken from the $12M. So, its really only $5M in cap space unless we renounce Hickson.

If we sign UFA (someone, anyone worth big contract), then we have to renounce Hickson to sign to over $5M.

Our best play - is to sign MLE type player (Matthews redeaux) and resign Hickson after UFA with bird rights (to any amount). $12M (Cap space) - $5M (MLE player) = $7M (Hickson Cap Hold).

IMO there aren't many players this summer worth our full cap space. We're better off keeping Hickson and adding a 6th-7th-8th man to the squad via MLE.

I completely agree with this post. And to make matters worse; we still need to make a decision on Luke Babbitt because he will have his cap hold as well. The way these two have been playing; it would be a shame to lose them via free agency because we try and lure some high dollar free agent.

What's more appealing to us? A max mle vet that has a specialty to stabilize our bench or signing a hypothetical free agent we may have to worry at the team chemistry level. At least if you are bringing in bench players they know their role. If they aren't working out; they are tradable pieces.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Something else for the debate:
http://www.blazersedge.com/2013/1/8...j-j-hickson-tops-list-of-overrated-rebounders



There's no denying that Hickson brings energy and he snares a lot of offensive rebounds, but as MM has brought up several times in this thread, his advanced stats point to him being very, very overrated. He's the perfect trade piece in my opinion, because his value is high relative to his salary, but that ratio is probably about to run out in very short order.

If I were Olshey I'd be scouring the trade market for a more defensive minded center to pair with Aldridge -- maybe that's just for the short term if Leonard works out down the line, but I don't think he's bankable as a future starter -- A guy who can truly help protect the rim on this team would fill a glaring need, moreso than keeping Hickson paired with Aldridge long-term.

It would be nice to see some names mentioned as someone we could get for Hickson that helps us at the Center position. Hickson only makes 4 Mil this year. We do have some cap space (anyone know how much?) that we can use to take back more salary then we give up but we aren't getting even a fringe All-Star for Hickson so who are these guys everyone is proposing?

As great as Hickson has been I don't think teams are knocking down our door to trade for him. He will get more then he should this summer but that is more to do with teams always have money burning a hole in their pocket. Not many teams are going to give you a mint to get him for 2-3 months and then possibly lose him.

 

[magnifier661]

It would be nice to see some names mentioned as someone we could get for Hickson that helps us at the Center position. Hickson only makes 4 Mil this year. We do have some cap space (anyone know how much?) that we can use to take back more salary then we give up but we aren't getting even a fringe All-Star for Hickson so who are these guys everyone is proposing?

As great as Hickson has been I don't think teams are knocking down our door to trade for him. He will get more then he should this summer but that is more to do with teams always have money burning a hole in their pocket. Not many teams are going to give you a mint to get him for 2-3 months and then possibly lose him.

Yep and they can't extend either; so no guarantee can be made that they may lose him anyway.

Like I said the real decision is "do we renounce and go after a 12 mil per guy, losing hickson with nothing in return or sign hickson and get an mle player?"