Ifeaanyi Festus Ezeli is in town and preparing to interview w Blazers

[Nikolokolus]

Not crazy about him unless the price is right. In four years in the league, he has already missed a full season, and has not played in more than 46 regular season games the last two years. Can he be a guy you count on to stay healthy? Seems unlikely.

Unlikely, but probably a gamble the Blazers should take.

Look at this way, he could be a total and complete bust and the Blazers would still be in the same position they are now with respect to even sniffing a title, but if by some near act of god this guy blossoms into a difference maker and a few other things break right, the Blazers might be in a position to take advantage of another Curry knee injury or Durant foot surgery in a couple of years.

 

[42N8Bounce]

These two tweets from July 4th are interesting -


If the Blazers hold firm on not renouncing any of the rights to our RFAs, then we could only offer Ezeli around $7M 1st year, $30M over 4 years.

I wonder if we're waiting to find out if Crabbe, Harkless or Leonard will receive any crazy offers. If they do, then at that point Olshey would have an easier decision.

 

[blue9]

This is certainly a "high-risk" move, but I don't see the "high-reward" to counterbalance it. Especially if we're parting ways with Harkless and/or Meyers.

I didn't have high hopes for Free Agency, but somehow Neil seems to be turning what should have been mediocre into something awful.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

At this point, I'd like to keep ALL of the players plus add Ezeli. That would bump my offseason grade to at least a B+ pending what they do with Plumlee.

 

[Nikolokolus]

These two tweets from July 4th are interesting -


If the Blazers hold firm on not renouncing any of the rights to our RFAs, then we could only offer Ezeli around $7M 1st year, $30M over 4 years.

I wonder if we're waiting to find out if Crabbe, Harkless or Leonard will receive any crazy offers. If they do, then at that point Olshey would have an easier decision.

If Meyers really is going to take the Qualifying Offer I'd say that's a pretty strong signal he's gone next summer anyway. Viewed through that prism, you might as well renounce him and take a chance on a guy that can actually play when healthy.

I ask myself one question. Of these four players who is the most likely to turn into a true difference maker? If Ezeli can stay healthy I think he'd get my vote, with Harkless a close second.

 

[santeesioux]

If Meyers really is going to take the Qualifying Offer I'd say that's a pretty strong signal he's gone next summer anyway. Viewed through that prism, you might as well renounce him and take a chance on a guy that can actually play when healthy.

I ask myself one question. Of these four players who is the most likely to turn into a true difference maker? If Ezeli can stay healthy I think he'd get my vote, with Harkless a close second.

Yeah, Meyers is definitely the one I would cut loose, I don't want to lose the other 2.

 

[0-Our!]

haha forgot about the Nigerian connection with Aminu.

Man, " The Nigerian Connection" sounds badass for some reason.

Riffin' off of "The French Connection" sounds tough AND relatively speaking... MUCH tougher AND WILL fight!

 

[Minstrel]

The "reward potential" with Ezeli is potentially the best defensive center in the league, a strong rebounder, a guy who can finish on the pick-and-roll and post up and score over defenders who are shorter or weaker than him.

To be clear, that isn't what he is now, except the rebounding part. He might be the best defensive center but you'd have to believe small sample size rate stats to believe that right now. He showed good finishing ability until his injury and then tailed off the rest of the year (a big issue for the Warriors in the playoffs was that Ezeli was no longer a reliable finisher).

The risk is both that he misses big chunks of the season, or even the playoffs, with injury and that he can't sustain his defensive rate stats when playing bigger minutes.

This isn't a sucker's bet, since his top-end potential is extremely valuable (a stronger DeAndre Jordan with better rim protection and less lob finishes), but there is a lot of uncertainty and risk.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

If all things were equal and the Warriors were forced to choose between Bogut and Ezeli, two sources expressed belief the team would prefer Ezeli, who was cheaper last season but almost certainly won’t be next season.

http://www.csnbayarea.com/warriors/sources-warriors-frustration-bogut-could-lead-trade

 

[Nikolokolus]

The "reward potential" with Ezeli is potentially the best defensive center in the league, a strong rebounder, a guy who can finish on the pick-and-roll and post up and score over defenders who are shorter or weaker than him.

To be clear, that isn't what he is now, except the rebounding part. He might be the best defensive center but you'd have to believe small sample size rate stats to believe that right now. He showed good finishing ability until his injury and then tailed off the rest of the year (a big issue for the Warriors in the playoffs was that Ezeli was no longer a reliable finisher).

The risk is both that he misses big chunks of the season, or even the playoffs, with injury and that he can't sustain his defensive rate stats when playing bigger minutes.

This isn't a sucker's bet, since his top-end potential is extremely valuable (a stronger DeAndre Jordan with better rim protection and less lob finishes), but there is a lot of uncertainty and risk.

Precisely. To me there is no risk, because it's almost a fait accompli that the the Warriors are about to go on a two or three year steamrolling tour around the association (with the caveat that injuries can happen). Doing nothing or just keeping our own FAs isn't going to make this Blazers team into a contender. If by some miracle Ezeli turns into "that guy" then maybe we at least get a puncher's chance.

 

[Minstrel]

Doing nothing or just keeping our own FAs isn't going to make this Blazers team into a contender. If by some miracle Ezeli turns into "that guy" then maybe we at least get a puncher's chance.

I agree. Both with draft picks and free agent signings, I've always believed in making the high variance (or "high risk/high reward") plays rather than the safer plays. Winning a championship is incredibly hard--you have to win some bets to get there.

 

[Trackjack]

I think he can turn out to be a healthy Oden. This kid is strong just like Oden he can score around the basket. He very good rim protector.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I agree. Both with draft picks and free agent signings, I've always believed in making the high variance (or "high risk/high reward") plays rather than the safer plays. Winning a championship is incredibly hard--you have to win some bets to get there.

Jordan was considered the safer bet over Bowie. Bowie was considered riskier, but with a higher reward if he stayed healthy.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Jordan was considered the safer bet over Bowie. Bowie was considered riskier, but with a higher reward if he stayed healthy.

Who is the "Jordan" in this scenario?

 

[BrianFromWA]

Jordan will win scoring titles, Bowie brings championships.

 

[blue32]

Definitely Festivus over Biebs. 10,000x.

 

[e_blazer]

Jordan will win scoring titles, Bowie brings championships.

Why the heck didn't somebody bring that comparison up when KP was trotting that idea out?

 

[Minstrel]

Jordan was considered the safer bet over Bowie. Bowie was considered riskier, but with a higher reward if he stayed healthy.

That isn't actually true. Bowie was considered the safer pick because conventional wisdom said that you needed a big man. No one saw Jordan as a surefire NBA star. Here's what Rod Thorn, the GM of the Bulls at the time, said:

"He isn’t going to turn a franchise around. He’s a very good offensive player, but not an overpowering offensive player."

 

[Cippy91]

Still kinda worried if we sign this guy, they will fuck up and resign Meyers and get rid of moe. We need crabbe and moe. Meyers needs to go. Harks ceiling is so damn high, he can play multiple positions, defend multiple positions. He goes straight up with the ball, no hesitation. Athletic. Can develop a nice three ball and probably could become a good play maker as well. Crabbe is very important to our bench on offense though he can't create his own shot, he shoots a high percentage from
Mid range and three. Meyers only has a couple good things about his game that we have seen minimal improvement in

 

[Pinwheel1]

Who is the "Jordan" in this scenario?

I was replying to the theory of risk taking in the draft. I know Minstrel is not the only one who believes in that philosophy. And quite honestly I used to. But I am not sure I do anymore. Especially when injuries are concerned. We need to make sure we get a solid player when we draft high.

As for Ezeli.....I am all for taking a chance on him and his injuries, because you are not losing that much (Like you would with a draft pick) Unless we have to move a player I value. I am still waiting on who we are letting go.

 

[Cippy91]

That isn't actually true. Bowie was considered the safer pick because conventional wisdom said that you needed a big man. No one saw Jordan as a surefire NBA star. Here's what Rod Thorn, the GM of the Bulls at the time, said:

"He isn’t going to turn a franchise around. He’s a very good offensive player, but not an overpowering offensive player."

Plus we already had drexler

 

[Minstrel]

Why the heck didn't somebody bring that comparison up when KP was trotting that idea out?

The two situations weren't the same. Jordan was considered "more talented" but not being a big man, a lot riskier and not a franchise cornerstone. In today's league (or even the league a decade ago), Bowie would never be ranked ahead of Jordan.

Oden was considered just as talented as Durant, a potential era-defining big man. If we want to compare it to that draft, Oden was the Olajuwon of the draft, not the Bowie. Even in the 2007 draft, it's likely a young Olajuwon would have been ranked ahead of a young Jordan. It's just that "our Olajuwon" got hurt. Bowie would never have been that type of player even had he stayed healthy.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Still kinda worried if we sign this guy, they will fuck up and resign Meyers and get rid of moe. We need crabbe and moe. Meyers needs to go. Harks ceiling is so damn high, he can play multiple positions, defend multiple positions. He goes straight up with the ball, no hesitation. Athletic. Can develop a nice three ball and probably could become a good play maker as well. Crabbe is very important to our bench on offense though he can't create his own shot, he shoots a high percentage from
Mid range and three. Meyers only has a couple good things about his game that we have seen minimal improvement in

Most importantly you can play Harkless against the Dubs, who does Biebs guard or what is his role in a series with them?

 

[Pinwheel1]

That isn't actually true. Bowie was considered the safer pick because conventional wisdom said that you needed a big man. No one saw Jordan as a surefire NBA star. Here's what Rod Thorn, the GM of the Bulls at the time, said:

"He isn’t going to turn a franchise around. He’s a very good offensive player, but not an overpowering offensive player."

I was 25 at the time hanging out in sports bars every day in the Bay area. The consensus from die hard sports fans (Non Blazer fans) was that Jordan would make multiple all star games, but if Bowie could stay healthy he would lead us to championships. His highlights were actually better than Jordan's in college. (especially his passing and blocked shots) Jordan was a safe bet at the time, but I agree no one thought he would be the best ever. Not even his teammates at NC. (i.e Sam Perkins)

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Is there any reason Ezeli couldn't sign the kind of deal they said that Durant might; a two year deal with a player option on the second year. Portland could then go over the cap to sign him for more if his first year was healthy and productive. They would also have some protection if he wasn't healthy, since it would be only a two year deal.
With this kind of deal it seems Ezeli would be willing to sign for less. But how much less. It looks to me as if Portland's cap space seems to be shrinking as they trade for Napier and sign Layman. Just accounting for Napier, I have us down to 7.6 million. That would seem really small to Ezeli, even if only for one year. But just renouncing Leonard or trading Davis would bring it up to 12-15 million (depending on whether they kept Montero and Alexander). That would seem to be very sufficient.

 

[Minstrel]

Is there any reason Ezeli couldn't sign the kind of deal they said that Durant might; a two year deal with a player option on the second year. Portland could then go over the cap to sign him for more if his first year was healthy and productive.

They wouldn't be able to go over the cap to re-sign him, because the player needs to have been with the team the previous three seasons to qualify for Bird rights (or two years for Early Bird rights). After he opts out next season, he'd be a normal free agent, the Blazers would have no more benefits to re-signing him than any other team.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

They wouldn't be able to go over the cap to re-sign him, because the player needs to have been with the team the previous three seasons to qualify for Bird rights (or two years for Early Bird rights). After he opts out next season, he'd be a normal free agent, the Blazers would have no more benefits to re-signing him than any other team.

Crap!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

They wouldn't be able to go over the cap to re-sign him, because the player needs to have been with the team the previous three seasons to qualify for Bird rights (or two years for Early Bird rights). After he opts out next season, he'd be a normal free agent, the Blazers would have no more benefits to re-signing him than any other team.

Actually we could go over the cap for him in that scenario, but only to as much as 120% of his prior year salary. That's no problem for Durant, because that will still get him to the max. For Ezeli, however, if he outperforms expectations in the first year, he could command significantly more than 120% of what we would pay him this year.

 

[BrianFromWA]

We're at enough bodies that not picking up the guarantees for Montero and Alexander (and waiting on signing Layman) saves almost 3M, that you can just get back with vet minimums after everyone else is signed.

8.9M (4yr/38M) is the most we can give him while keeping the RFAs on Crabbe, Mo and Meyers and including the 16.3M starting for Turner and the 1.35M cap hit for Napier and the 1.98M in Dead Cap Space to Varejao.

 

[andalusian]

Most importantly you can play Harkless against the Dubs, who does Biebs guard or what is his role in a series with them?

He guards Zaza when he is in the game.