Injury Excuse Propaganda

[Neil O. Shyster]

So are we still using injuries as an excuse?

 

[Neil O. Shyster]

What the Blazers mini hot streak showed me is that this team has talent to compete if they play right, and that injuries are an excuse.... the problem has been more the mix of players and style of play... more specifically, CJ taking up so much of the salary cap and defaulting to his natural instincts of ISO ball not matter what success we had previously by sharing the ball

 

[Rhal]

What the Blazers mini hot streak showed me is that this team has talent to compete if they play right, and that injuries are an excuse.... the problem has been more the mix of players and style of play... more specifically, CJ taking up so much of the salary cap and defaulting to his natural instincts of ISO ball not matter what success we had previously by sharing the ball

The mini hot streak was led by a HISTORIC run by Dame. I guess its easy to ignore everything that doesn't fit into your narrative. Like the fact its the injuries have destroyed any semblance of D this team might have had and the big reason we are losing is because our D sucks not that our offense sucks.

 

[Neil O. Shyster]

The mini hot streak was led by a HISTORIC run by Dame. I guess its easy to ignore everything that doesn't fit into your narrative. Like the fact its the injuries have destroyed any semblance of D this team might have had and the big reason we are losing is because our D sucks not that our offense sucks.

It was obviously enough for Neil to waste a future asset by not trading Whiteside

 

[BonesJones]

The mini hot streak was led by a HISTORIC run by Dame. I guess its easy to ignore everything that doesn't fit into your narrative. Like the fact its the injuries have destroyed any semblance of D this team might have had and the big reason we are losing is because our D sucks not that our offense sucks.

The defense shouldnt be this bad with Ariza and Whiteside on the floor.

 

[e_blazer]

The defense shouldnt be this bad with Ariza and Whiteside on the floor.

Six games in nine days with about half a roster probably had something to do with it. The Blazers looked really slow against both the Pelicans and Grizzlies. Here's hoping that some rest helps.

 

[BonesJones]

Six games in nine days with about half a roster probably had something to do with it. The Blazers looked really slow against both the Pelicans and Grizzlies. Here's hoping that some rest helps.

Even the games we were winning.

 

[bobf]

If the Blazers swapped Dame/CJ for a healthy Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, and all else was equal, do people in here actually think this team would be 8 games under .500 right now? This record is inexcusable when the star players are healthy getting paid over $30 mil apiece and also have a guy like Whiteside having a career year... this continual pattern of no accountability is sickening as a fan. This team has no ball movement with ISO ball CJ. DEAD LAST in NBA in assist again.

But Steph & Klay are better than Dame & CJ. I believe they would be struggling too just not as badly. I think people underestimate the extent to which lesser players on your team drag down your W/L record.

Here is player BPM converted to WINS produced. One BPM point in theory produces 2.7 wins if a player played 48 min and 82 games. So WINS = 2.7 x BPM x MIN / (48 * 82).

According to this Dame + Hassan + CJ + a bunch of average players would be 39-17 right now. Problem is we don't have a bunch of average players behind them. Replace Ant & Carmello with two average players adds +7 wins to our current record. 33-23. It's rare that a team has 9 average+ players like we had last year. A lot depends on how close they are to average. We're not close.

 

[Tince]

View attachment 29879

But Steph & Klay are better than Dame & CJ. I believe they would be struggling too just not as badly. I think people underestimate the extent to which lesser players on your team drag down your W/L record.

Here is player BPM converted to WINS produced. One BPM point in theory produces 2.7 wins if a player played 48 min and 82 games. So WINS = 2.7 x BPM x MIN / (48 * 82).

According to this Dame + Hassan + CJ + a bunch of average players would be 39-17 right now. Problem is we don't have a bunch of average players behind them. Replace Ant & Carmello with two average players adds +7 wins to our current record. 33-23. It's rare that a team has 9 average+ players like we had last year. A lot depends on how close they are to average. We're not close.

Great use of data to illustrate a point that many of us see: the supporting cast is really bad... Post of the year!

 

[TBpup]

Great use of data to illustrate a point that many of us see: the supporting cast is really bad... Post of the year!

It's not just the supporting cast. CJ is #14 on his own team.....just above Mario Hezonja. So it's really Dame/Whiteside....and a group of average players.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

View attachment 29879

But Steph & Klay are better than Dame & CJ. I believe they would be struggling too just not as badly. I think people underestimate the extent to which lesser players on your team drag down your W/L record.

Here is player BPM converted to WINS produced. One BPM point in theory produces 2.7 wins if a player played 48 min and 82 games. So WINS = 2.7 x BPM x MIN / (48 * 82).

According to this Dame + Hassan + CJ + a bunch of average players would be 39-17 right now. Problem is we don't have a bunch of average players behind them. Replace Ant & Carmello with two average players adds +7 wins to our current record. 33-23. It's rare that a team has 9 average+ players like we had last year. A lot depends on how close they are to average. We're not close.

Dame vs Steph is an interesting comp. I think Dame is a better all around player then Steph, however when it comes to shooting I have never seen anyone better then a couple of the years Steph had, he was incredible. He’s consistently shot a much higher percentage from 3 then Dame has too. I think Dames better at attacking, and has never had anyone close to Klay’s level to play with.

 

[bobf]

Dame vs Steph is an interesting comp. I think Dame is a better all around player then Steph, however when it comes to shooting I have never seen anyone better then a couple of the years Steph had, he was incredible. He’s consistently shot a much higher percentage from 3 then Dame has too. I think Dames better at attacking, and has never had anyone close to Klay’s level to play with.

Yeah, even if you argue Dame is as good as Steph still Dame + CJ is not Steph + Klay and is much more unbalanced - worse defense, more take turns ISO, less synergy.

 

[bobf]

Great use of data to illustrate a point that many of us see: the supporting cast is really bad... Post of the year!

Thanks!

 

[bobf]

It's not just the supporting cast. CJ is #14 on his own team.....just above Mario Hezonja. So it's really Dame/Whiteside....and a group of average players.

Yeah, I could have put that. To be fair I don't think CJ is as bad as his BPM says. His RPM is +3.23 but that's not at all trustworthy for just 2/3 a season. I'd say he's somewhere in between. If you look at CJ's history of advanced stats, he's somewhat above average and no where near worth his contract. I do think he's a better player in the playoffs when scoring get's tougher. His lowish efficiency shots become better shots in the playoffs.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Yeah, even if you argue Dame is as good as Steph still Dame + CJ is not Steph + Klay and is much more unbalanced - worse defense, more take turns ISO, less synergy.

I've always seen Dame as a mix of Westbrooks athleticism but not to that level and Stephs shooting but not to his level. Which turns out is a really, really good player who maybe isn't as "elite" as those guys in one phase of the game but over all might be better than both. The thing is CJ is not even relatively close to Klay in my mind, they have much different games but Klay is an elite spot up shooter, has the size to guard 1-3 and guards at a good level. I don't think he's a star without the "system" around him and the role he gets but of "3&D" types I think he's one of the best ever. He's actually kind of the opposite of CJ in terms of styles. -This isn't meant as a dig at CJ though I know it'll get taken that way.

 

[bobf]

I've always seen Dame as a mix of Westbrooks athleticism but not to that level and Stephs shooting but not to his level. Which turns out is a really, really good player who maybe isn't as "elite" as those guys in one phase of the game but over all might be better than both. The thing is CJ is not even relatively close to Klay in my mind, they have much different games but Klay is an elite spot up shooter, has the size to guard 1-3 and guards at a good level. I don't think he's a star without the "system" around him and the role he gets but of "3&D" types I think he's one of the best ever. He's actually kind of the opposite of CJ in terms of styles. -This isn't meant as a dig at CJ though I know it'll get taken that way.

I think Dame is not quite at Steph's level but at the same time he's been chasing him starting a few years behind and he's been gaining ground. Klay in that system sometimes looks like a role player (a very good one) but I've also seen games when KD and/or Steph were out he really can step it up and be the man.

Klay is the kind of player, the better your team gets, the more value he brings. On any team I'd rather have Klay over CJ of course, but the better my team is the more I want Klay over CJ. On a crap team that can't score, CJ will get you a half-ways decent shot. But on a good team, CJ's shots are inefficient, and outside of scoring what does CJ bring? Don't get me wrong, I like CJ and am not a "trade CJ" guy (it depends on who you could get!). He is what he is. Above average.

 

[Propagandist]

Dame vs Steph is an interesting comp. I think Dame is a better all around player then Steph, however when it comes to shooting I have never seen anyone better then a couple of the years Steph had, he was incredible. He’s consistently shot a much higher percentage from 3 then Dame has too. I think Dames better at attacking, and has never had anyone close to Klay’s level to play with.

Dame is way better this season though...

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Dame is way better this season though...

Well Stephs been great at cheerleading!

 

[bobf]

I don't know why we let Skal go. In my mind we had a great core building:
Nurk, Hassan -- TOTALLY set at center (too set).
Zach, Skal -- SET at PF
Trent, Ariza
Dame CJ

That's one elite player, 2 very good players, and 4 above average players. 48 minutes of 2+ respectable to great interior defenders. We just needed a couple more decent players.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I think Dame is not quite at Steph's level but at the same time he's been chasing him starting a few years behind and he's been gaining ground. Klay in that system sometimes looks like a role player (a very good one) but I've also seen games when KD and/or Steph were out he really can step it up and be the man.

Klay is the kind of player, the better your team gets, the more value he brings. On any team I'd rather have Klay over CJ of course, but the better my team is the more I want Klay over CJ. On a crap team that can't score, CJ will get you a half-ways decent shot. But on a good team, CJ's shots are inefficient, and outside of scoring what does CJ bring? Don't get me wrong, I like CJ and am not a "trade CJ" guy (it depends on who you could get!). He is what he is. Above average.

I think if CJ was given the reigns of a team he’d look much better. I honestly believe the team has coached him into dribble, dribble ... still dribbling, shoot. It is probably what he’s best at but weve seen him when Dame is out play quite a bit differently. I think in the right situation he could maybe look like an allstar off in the east somewhere. I mostly agree Klays is basically just better and his strengths allow him to slot into a “role” better than CJ’s strengths.

 

[blazerfan11]

Kla

I think if CJ was given the reigns of a time he’d look much better. I honestly believe the team has coached him into dribble, dribble ... still dribbling, shoot. It is probably what he’s best at but weve seen him when Dame is out play quite a bit differently. I think in the right situation he could maybe look like an allstar off in the east somewhere. I mostly agree Klays is basically just better and his strengths allow him to slot into a “role” better than CJ’s strengths.

Klay also fits into a rotating defense scheme better than CJ.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Kla

Klay also fits into a rotating defense scheme better than CJ.

So do most NBA players. heh. .

 

[wizenheimer]

I don't know why we let Skal go. In my mind we had a great core building:
Nurk, Hassan -- TOTALLY set at center (too set).
Zach, Skal -- SET at PF
Trent, Ariza
Dame CJ

That's one elite player, 2 very good players, and 4 above average players. 48 minutes of 2+ respectable to great interior defenders. We just needed a couple more decent players.

the whole Skal "issue" is a head-scratcher. I get the desire to save money. So it was a short-term move, trade away the injured player in favor of the healthy players; save money and put the 'healthiest' option on the floor for the rest of the season

but this season is a lost cause, IMO. It's been bop-a-mole with injuries all year long and it looks like the only thing that will break that cycle is an off-season. An 8th seed and getting crushed in the playoffs is not the optimal result for the rest of the year.

and then there's next season. Portland has 2 players over 6'8 on contract next season, and both of those are injured right now; and one of them is building a worrisome injury history. Skal is going to be RFA and will very likely not get more than 3M or so, if that. He would be a cheap backup big, and he's a decent rebounder carrying good efficiency. He's also rather versatile because of his mobility. To me the only reason not to hold on to him is that he is headed for chronic knee problems because of his meniscus injury

 

[hoopsjock]

the whole Skal "issue" is a head-scratcher. I get the desire to save money. So it was a short-term move, trade away the injured player in favor of the healthy players; save money and put the 'healthiest' option on the floor for the rest of the season

but this season is a lost cause, IMO. It's been bop-a-mole with injuries all year long and it looks like the only thing that will break that cycle is an off-season. An 8th seed and getting crushed in the playoffs is not the optimal result for the rest of the year.

and then there's next season. Portland has 2 players over 6'8 on contract next season, and both of those are injured right now; and one of them is building a worrisome injury history. Skal is going to be RFA and will very likely not get more than 3M or so, if that. He would be a cheap backup big, and he's a decent rebounder carrying good efficiency. He's also rather versatile because of his mobility. To me the only reason not to hold on to him is that he is headed for chronic knee problems because of his meniscus injury

Yeah, this is part of the reason why I'm so bothered by the Skal trade. They said they weren't going to do anything this season that made them worse long term. Isn't that exactly what trading Skal did though? Whether Skal ever becomes a decent rotation player or not, he still at least had the potential to do so. Guys like Hezonja and Swanigan will not. I get that Skal isn't healthy right now but trading him and not signing a healthy body in his place doesn't change the amount of healthy players. I would've understood if it got us out of the tax, but it didn't.

 

[Blazers Roy]

If the Blazers swapped Dame/CJ for a healthy Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, and all else was equal, do people in here actually think this team would be 8 games under .500 right now? This record is inexcusable when the star players are healthy getting paid over $30 mil apiece and also have a guy like Whiteside having a career year... this continual pattern of no accountability is sickening as a fan. This team has no ball movement with ISO ball CJ. DEAD LAST in NBA in assist again.

With our fucked up gameplan even Steph and Klay would lose.

Watch Warriors games. The key for their success is goons taking rebounds and getting defenders out of the way for Steph and Klay. That's why they are "open" so many times.

 

[SIeepwalker]

View attachment 29879

But Steph & Klay are better than Dame & CJ. I believe they would be struggling too just not as badly. I think people underestimate the extent to which lesser players on your team drag down your W/L record.

Here is player BPM converted to WINS produced. One BPM point in theory produces 2.7 wins if a player played 48 min and 82 games. So WINS = 2.7 x BPM x MIN / (48 * 82).

According to this Dame + Hassan + CJ + a bunch of average players would be 39-17 right now. Problem is we don't have a bunch of average players behind them. Replace Ant & Carmello with two average players adds +7 wins to our current record. 33-23. It's rare that a team has 9 average+ players like we had last year. A lot depends on how close they are to average. We're not close.

Great, now I'm mad Neil paid Atlanta to take Skal again

 

[bobf]

Here's the same analysis applied to next year. For young players I used their latest BPM. For seasoned players I used a weighted average of their last three years.

Probably hopefully this is a conservative estimate of our players:
- Nurk's last season BPM was +5.1 whereas I used +3.4 weighted average.
- Hassan's current BPM is +3.1 but I used +2.0 weighted average.
- Ariza is currently +1.8 but I used +0.3 weighted average.
- Zach should be underrated at average.
- Trent, Little, Ant should all be improving.
On the down side it's pie in the sky to expect our top 9 players to play all 19,680 minutes like I did. In 2018-2019 our top 9 players played only 16,600 minutes.
A lot depends on Ant, Little and the "bunch of guys" who fill out the bottom of the roster. If we still had Skal this would look a lot better.

 

[kjironman1]

I have been reading this forum for a while now and finally felt like I needed to post. I am just sick of this false injury excuse that is being pushed by all the local media. Injuries are part of the game. When your 2 best players are still healthy getting paid 80 mil per year and you are 5 games below .500 close to mid season this is a pathetic excuse to eliminate accountability and for Neil to keep the status quo.

1) Nurk injury was baked into cake. Blazers made western conference finals without Nurk, and actually replaced him with arguably a better player in Whiteside. So going from no Nurk, to adding Whiteside is actually a big upgrade. And the team was talking title knowing Nurk would be out this season.

2) Zach Collins was averaging 9 points and 4 rebounds before injury this year. If Collins doesn’t get injured, Carmelo probably doesn’t sign with Blazers. Carmelo’s inside game and scoring arguably provided a bigger impact than what Zach was giving.

3) Blazers had a below .500 record with Rodney Hood.

4) Teams with injury’s to better players have beaten the Blazers. Losing to Warriors with Steph, Klay... Kings without Fox, Bagley... Cavs without Love... I could go on. So they are making excuse for losing 4th or 5th best player while losing to teams missing 1st or 2nd beat player.

This team caught lightning in a bottle last year. Being dead last in NBA in passing and assist is not a recipe for success, yet Neil doubles down. This ISO ball style is the true culprit and until CJ is traded I just can’t see anything changing.

Boy this post is aging well don't ya think?