Is Simons really just Jake Layman?

[Binx]

In Layman’s first game he went crazy and scored 17 points in less than 5 minutes. That was it. The best we would ever get from him.

In Simon’s first game, he went for 37 points and 9 assists. That, it seems, was it. Haven’t really seen much from him since then.

Hope I’m wrong, but Simons has been a big disappointment this year. Right now, when we could really use some help at the guard position, he’s giving us very little.

It feels like Jake Layman all over again.

 

[Labinot41]

Time will tell

 

[Bruno_Sabino]

I doubt. This is Simons rookie season first of all and his show already way more flashes that could be something than layman. He’s struggle right now, he take a lot of fouls, inconsistent with his jump shots and turnovers. He’s young, and last year he didn’t play a bit - for you improve you gotta play look at Trent have big performances, he just needed time, so as i think little should have more play time, he’s a very talented rookie, he rebound, has size, is shooting the ball well, he’s other example I think will improve his game once he has more play time.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Bayless. His first start in place of an injured Roy he looked great. In fact, it may have been the best game of his Blazer tenure.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

I wish Simons would play as well as Layman did for our last year during the regular season. His 24 point quarter was one of the highlights of the year for me.

 

[julius]

Funny how we forget the stretch of basketball that Jake had last year, where he scored double figures in 11 out of 15 games.

Or that we forget that Simons is still young and probably needs another year.

Or that a lot of people (myself included) were already going to give up on Trent for a large portion of this current season.

 

[AldoTrapani]

Man I been saying this for months. But he has been terrible. Can’t believe players and Neil rave about him.

 

[BlayZa]

i know his brief little hot run that he had sent the rookie card collectors on a massive binge for his stuff as part of the speculation market, not exactly paying huge investment dividends.

i was tempted to do a bit of that for gary trent jr, but held off.

mostly ive been buying brandon clarke cards recently - pretty cheap, and the kid is having a great rookie year considering.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I see Simons as more like Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster, both drafted at a very young age. We thought they'd be battling to be our starter SF for the decade. Turns out they both lost.
Both of them had flashes - Outlaw's 13-game-win-streak-starting-game-winner and occasional amazing dunks, Martell's record number of points in a quarter, but neither of them ever solidified into an NBA starter.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I wanted us to draft Jalen Brunson, who is sort of the opposite of Simons. Short arms, unathletic, old for the draft, but is actually better than he appears in a team setting. If you held a workout for each of them, no doubt Anfernee would blow Brunson out of the water.
Simons has a few years to catch up to where Brunson is, as he's already 23, but will he ever make it?

 

[julius]

I wanted us to draft Jalen Brunson, who is sort of the opposite of Simons. Short arms, unathletic, old for the draft, but is actually better than he appears in a team setting. If you held a workout for each of them, no doubt Anfernee would blow Brunson out of the water.
Simons has a few years to catch up to where Brunson is, as he's already 23, but will he ever make it?
View attachment 30047

He's barely behind him now. And Brunson is almost 3 years older and experienced 3 years of college basketball. That does make a difference for most players (of course you'll get the occasional 1 and done players, but in most cases players benefit from playing at least 2 seasons of college ball).

I get why fans are "what have you done for me lately". Like I said earlier in this thread, I gave up on Trent early in the season. But maybe if people had realistic expectations for what Simons was supposed to give this year, it would help them when it comes to their knee jerk reactions to everything, or their need to be "right" about a player immediately.

If by the time Simons is 23 he is averaging what Brunson is now, I'd actually be disappointed.

 

[Jon]

that wasn't Simon's first game.

his first game he went zero's across the board. the game you are talking about was his 20th game.

 

[Wade Garrett]

Folks truly underestimate what this "barely out of high school" skinny kid is going through.
Not every 19 year old is ready.
Simons is not LeBron, or Zion.
But the glimpses he has shown tell me he needs a year to adjust. Last year didn't count he was just along for the ride.
He has been borderline disasterous, but if you can't see the potential, I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

He's barely behind him now.

Clearly we have different definitions of "barely". Or perhaps you mean that Anfernee is mooning him.

If by the time Simons is 23 he is averaging what Brunson is now, I'd actually be disappointed.

Well GET READY..

 

[HailBlazers]

i know his brief little hot run that he had sent the rookie card collectors on a massive binge for his stuff as part of the speculation market, not exactly paying huge investment dividends.

i was tempted to do a bit of that for gary trent jr, but held off.

mostly ive been buying brandon clarke cards recently - pretty cheap, and the kid is having a great rookie year considering.

Ebay the best place to buy cards?

 

[wizenheimer]

Folks truly underestimate what this "barely out of high school" skinny kid is going through.
Not every 19 year old is ready.
Simons is not LeBron, or Zion.
But the glimpses he has shown tell me he needs a year to adjust. Last year didn't count he was just along for the ride.
He has been borderline disasterous, but if you can't see the potential, I don't know what to tell you.

all that may be true, but Simons played in more games and had more minutes than Trent last year, and posted much better numbers. Trent didn't look like an NBA player

this season , Simons has played in 12 more games than Trent, and has logged 400 more minutes; he's averaged 3 more minutes a game. Trent is only 6 months older than Simons, but clearly, Trent is a much better, more complete player at this point. Statistically, Simons is bad and he's posting worse numbers this year than last year. Meanwhile, Trent has made the jumps in stats you want to see from a 2nd year player. When summer league starts, they will both be 21...so the "he's 19" excuse is running out of rope

as far as potential, yeah I see some. But over the years way too often the potential I've seen young players flash turns out to be a mirage. Telfaire, Outlaw, Jack, Rudy, Sergio, McRoberts, Bayless, Webster....it's a long list. The list of players with potential that live up to is is much shorter, like Roy, Aldridge, Dame. CJ might be the only reasonable comp, but Simons already has 370 more minutes in his 2nd season than CJ had. Really, what's left with Simons is a lot of hope that that missing year of college ball has set him way back. I'm not sure that's credible at this point...maybe

 

[Wade Garrett]

all that may be true, but Simons played in more games and had more minutes than Trent last year, and posted much better numbers. Trent didn't look like an NBA player

this season , Simons has played in 12 more games than Trent, and has logged 400 more minutes; he's averaged 3 more minutes a game. Trent is only 6 months older than Simons, but clearly, Trent is a much better, more complete player at this point. Statistically, Simons is bad and he's posting worse numbers this year than last year. Meanwhile, Trent has made the jumps in stats you want to see from a 2nd year player. When summer league starts, they will both be 21...so the "he's 19" excuse is running out of rope

as far as potential, yeah I see some. But over the years way too often the potential I've seen young players flash turns out to be a mirage. Telfaire, Outlaw, Jack, Rudy, Sergio, McRoberts, Bayless, Webster....it's a long list. The list of players with potential that live up to is is much shorter, like Roy, Aldridge, Dame. CJ might be the only reasonable comp, but Simons already has 370 more minutes in his 2nd season than CJ had. Really, what's left with Simons is a lot of hope that that missing year of college ball has set him way back. I'm not sure that's credible at this point...maybe

Look, I'm the guy who thought Eliot Williams was gonna be the next breakout star, so what do I know?
But I like Simons.
No denying he's struggling, but not all 19 year olds make it.
Give him one more year.

 

[wizenheimer]

Look, I'm the guy who thought Eliot Williams was gonna be the next breakout star, so what do I know?
But I like Simons.
No denying he's struggling, but not all 19 year olds make it.
Give him one more year.

I agree he'll get one more year. Very likely 2 more, at minimum, because those are rookie scale years and Portland needs cheap salaries at the middle and lower end of the rotations. And with Olshey as his cheerleader, Simons will probably get 5 more years

 

[julius]

Clearly we have different definitions of "barely". Or perhaps you mean that Anfernee is mooning him.

Yeah, he's averaging 1.8 more per 36, 4 assists more per 36 (since Simons isn't playing the PG spot, not a fair comparison) and .8 more rebounds per 36.

And the bulk of Brunsons shots are 2 pt fg's (almost 70% of his shots) vs 58%.

Brunson has scored above his average about the same amount of times Simons has. They both have 28 games where they scored under 7 points, including 5 games for Jalen where he had a goose egg (vs 1 for Simons).

Simons has scored 4 points or less, 12 times this year. Brunson? 21 games.

Yes, Simons shoots worse, but let's not act like Brunson is having an awesome season and Simons is crap.

So like I said, I'm not sure I'd be all "he's so much better!" when he's actually not. Are his overall #'s better? Yeah. But he's also 3 years ahead of him. So, it's no surprise that his game is a little more developed.

Well GET READY..

your record of prognostication speaks for itself.

 

[Scalma]

My stance on Anfernee is he was thrust into the rotation at least a year earlier than he should have been. He’s also been asked to do more than original planned because of all the injuries. This has hurt him and the team this season, but my bet is it’ll pay off in the long run, starting as early as next season. Players don’t all develop at the same pace. If it takes him four years that’s ok too. The talent and skill is there, it’ll just require patience. I learned that lesson back with CJ.

 

[Minstrel]

It's actually pretty rare that a player, even a super young one, starts off this badly and later emerges as a really good one. So, I'm not going to try to "scout" him (because it's easy to get see a player's talent in his best moments and extremely hard to figure out how likely it is that he develops consistency) and just rely on the history that eventually-good players generally don't look completely lost and put up horrendous numbers (both in terms of raw numbers and advanced numbers) in their first couple seasons. So, most likely Simons is going to go the way of someone like Telfair. But who knows--exceptions happen.

 

[julius]

My stance on Anfernee is he was thrust into the rotation at least a year earlier than he should have been. He’s also been asked to do more than original planned because of all the injuries. This has hurt him and the team this season, but my bet is it’ll pay off in the long run, starting as early as next season. Players don’t all develop at the same pace. If it takes him four years that’s ok too. The talent and skill is there, it’ll just require patience.

Exactly. Neither him or Trent were supposed to be relied on as much as they were DUE to injuries. Yes, Simons was supposed to play minutes, but I don't think he was supposed to be getting the attention he was getting this year. His role changed a lot because of injuries.

The game still needs to slow down for him, and he needs to bulk up a bit. I didn't have unrealistic expectations for him like so many did. I wanted him to do better, but I'm not upset.

It's not like he's Nolan Smith or Turean Green or any of other guys that people thought were going to be good to borderline great players for the team. Those guys didn't have athleticism and shooting skills behind them.

 

[julius]

It's actually pretty rare that a player, even a super young one, starts off this badly and later emerges as a really good one. So, I'm not going to try to "scout" him (because it's easy to get see a player's talent in his best moments and extremely hard to figure out how likely it is that he develops consistency) and just rely on the history that eventually-good players generally don't look completely lost and put up horrendous numbers (both in terms of raw numbers and advanced numbers) in their first couple seasons. So, most likely Simons is going to go the way of someone like Telfair. But who knows--exceptions happen.

I'm not sure it's a fair comparison to compare him to Telfair. Telfair was shorter and didn't have a good shot outside of the paint. Telfair also had the hype of NY behind him.

but I'm not sure he's actually starting off "this badly". Kawhi Leonard didn't start off super great (averaged fewer points per 36 his first year). He didn't start to take off as far as offensive production until about his 5th year in the league.

I am NOT saying that Anfernee is the same as Kawhi (or that he WILL be a starter quality player). Just that it's easy to give up on a players #'s when you are comparing them to how someone like Damian came into the league (after 4 years in college..). Fans are short sighted all the time (just as much as they hold onto players too long too).

Look at Hardens first year. Averaged 9 points, shot 40% from the floor, 3 rebounds and 2 assists. He improved significantly after that year. So it can and does happen.

Look at Giannis' first 2 years. He wasn't destroying the league. He's doing fine now.

You put Damian in the league after his Freshman year in college and it's doubtful he would've been that productive as he was at 22.

 

[Minstrel]

I'm not sure it's a fair comparison to compare him to Telfair. Telfair was shorter and didn't have a good shot outside of the paint. Telfair also had the hype of NY behind him.

but I'm not sure he's actually starting off "this badly". Kawhi Leonard didn't start off super great (averaged fewer points per 36 his first year). He didn't start to take off as far as offensive production until about his 5th year in the league.

I am NOT saying that Anfernee is the same as Kawhi (or that he WILL be a starter quality player). Just that it's easy to give up on a players #'s when you are comparing them to how someone like Damian came into the league (after 4 years in college..). Fans are short sighted all the time (just as much as they hold onto players too long too).

Look at Hardens first year. Averaged 9 points, shot 40% from the floor, 3 rebounds and 2 assists. He improved significantly after that year. So it can and does happen.

Look at Giannis' first 2 years. He wasn't destroying the league. He's doing fine now.

You put Damian in the league after his Freshman year in college and it's doubtful he would've been that productive as he was at 22.

I agree, but there's a difference between not lighting the league on fire and posting absolutely horrendous numbers. Leonard and Harden were the first category, not the second. Telfair was the second category, which is why I made the comparison. I wasn't comparing their games, just that both posted absolutely terrible numbers, especially when you look at more advanced numbers than PPG/APG/RPG. It's incredibly rare that players (even really young ones) start off that poorly and then later turn it around to be good or very good.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Read this forum for any ammount of time and you will hear some variation on this argument: player A is better than player B, but it doesn't matter because player B is younger.

What's your yardstick here? What convinces you that Player B is the better player even though on court performance says otherwise?

Furthermore, the age argument seems to ignore the question of team needs. If a team has a chance to contend, their needs are obviously different from a team on a 5 year rebuilding plan. If we were talking about not sniffing the WCF for the next 5+ years, I might roll the dice on Simons. If we intend to do it during Dame's prime - I want a player not a project.

 

[kjironman1]

1M will be fine. Let’s give him another year. They will anyway. Might as well root for the kid and hope he continues to learn.

 

[wizenheimer]

I agree, but there's a difference between not lighting the league on fire and posting absolutely horrendous numbers. Leonard and Harden were the first category, not the second. Telfair was the second category, which is why I made the comparison. I wasn't comparing their games, just that both posted absolutely terrible numbers, especially when you look at more advanced numbers than PPG/APG/RPG. It's incredibly rare that players (even really young ones) start off that poorly and then later turn it around to be good or very good.

that's all generally true. Obviously, there are exceptions, but Simons is not the first NBA player to be 20 years old in his 2nd season

somebody mentioned Kawhi...yeah, his raw offensive production numbers increased a lot over his 2nd season. But, in his 2nd season, Kawhi had a TS% of .592 when his career mark is .597. His 2nd year rebound rate was 11.1% when his career mark is 11.6%. He was already reaching a lot of his career marks in efficiency. What jumped up for Kawhi from his 2nd season was his usage rate and stats tied to that expanded opportunity

more impotently with Kawhi and many more players is they didn't regress in their 2nd season. Simons has; he's gone from a PER of 11.1 to 9.1. From a TS% of .535 to .502; from an assist% of 13.7% to 9.5%. And all this isn't coming because he's having his minutes jerked around by the coach like many young players go thru. He's been a consistent part of the rotation all season long and is averaging over 22 minutes/game. You want to see the inverse of those numbers, not regression

 

[oldmangrouch]

that's all generally true. Obviously, there are exceptions, but Simons is not the first NBA player to be 20 years old in his 2nd season

somebody mentioned Kawhi...yeah, his raw offensive production numbers increased a lot over his 2nd season. But, in his 2nd season, Kawhi had a TS% of .592 when his career mark is .597. His 2nd year rebound rate was 11.1% when his career mark is 11.6%. He was already reaching a lot of his career marks in efficiency. What jumped up for Kawhi from his 2nd season was his usage rate and stats tied to that expanded opportunity

more impotently with Kawhi and many more players is they didn't regress in their 2nd season. Simons has; he's gone from a PER of 11.1 to 9.1. From a TS% of .535 to .502; from an assist% of 13.7% to 9.5%. And all this isn't coming because he's having his minutes jerked around by the coach like many young players go thru. He's been a consistent part of the rotation all season long and is averaging over 22 minutes/game. You want to see the inverse of those numbers, not regression

Agreed. The most likely explanation for his regression is that opponents have had a chance to scout him. They have adapted - he has not responded. Part of that is on the coaching staff, but Simons is not blameless here. He is not impressing me with either his BBall IQ or his drive to succeed. The other possibility is that we are over-rating his actual talent level. Personally, I still think it is his game, rather than his talent, that is at issue.

 

[hoopsjock]

Read this forum for any ammount of time and you will hear some variation on this argument: player A is better than player B, but it doesn't matter because player B is younger.

What's your yardstick here? What convinces you that Player B is the better player even though on court performance says otherwise?

Furthermore, the age argument seems to ignore the question of team needs. If a team has a chance to contend, their needs are obviously different from a team on a 5 year rebuilding plan. If we were talking about not sniffing the WCF for the next 5+ years, I might roll the dice on Simons. If we intend to do it during Dame's prime - I want a player not a project.

I think with Simons you can see the tools there to one day be an elite scorer in this league. He can shoot the 3 (yeah, obviously hasn't been great this year), can pull up in the midrange (again, not great this year), and has the athleticism to someday be an excellent finisher around the rim. The youth thing is a valid excuse for me because he seems to be at such a disadvantage physically compared to most other NBA players. It may never get this way, but if that gap closes and he becomes more physically imposing I think his game would take off.

My philosophy to team building is that you always need to have at least a couple guys on the roster that are young and have pop potential to try and develop, even if your team is good. The problem is Portland has a bunch of those guys right now and they all have to actually play because of the injuries. I will concede that it was probably too soon to give Simons the role he went into the season having but we still don't know if it will help accelerate his growth in the next two years. If it does I think this was the perfect season to take his lumps given it just isn't their year. If he never develops then I think it would be one of Olshey's most massive miscalculations.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Weird what scouting can do