Kevin Pelton (ESPN insider): Blazers projected 42-40

[PtldPlatypus]

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...totals-playoff-standings-all-30-teams-2018-19

8. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected wins: 42.0

The Blazers' offseason makeover of their bench, along with regression to the mean, is responsible for a projected drop from last season's 49 wins -- good for third in the West. Seth Curry (projected minus-1.4 RPM) doesn't rate as well as Napier, while Davis' departure means more minutes for second-year center Zach Collins (minus-1.9).​

Pelton's projected conference standings are as follows:

- West - - East
1. GSW - 1. TOR
2. UTA - 2. BOS
3. HOU - 3. PHI
4. DEN - 4. IND
5. MIN - 5. MIL
6. OKC - 6. MIA
7. NOP - 7. WAS
8. POR - 8. DET
9. LAL - 9. CHA
10. SAS- 10. BRK
11. LAC- 11. ORL
12. MEM- 12. CLE
13. DAL- 13. NYK
14. PHX- 14. CHI
15. SAC- 15. ATL

 

[Natebishop3]

I don't think the NBA allows LeBron to not make the playoffs.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I don't think the NBA allows LeBron to not make the playoffs.

Pelton kind of addresses that too, says that in his projection, Lebron and other Lakers' RPM projection took a big hit because they're changing teams, but if Lebron's RPM only drops a little bit instead of a ton, the Lakers would be projected ahead of the Blazers.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

Pelton kind of addresses that too, says that in his projection, Lebron and other Lakers' RPM projection took a big hit because they're changing teams, but if Lebron's RPM only drops a little bit instead of a ton, the Lakers would be projected ahead of the Blazers.

As we sit now, I have a hard time believing we make the playoffs.

 

[BBert]

I wonder how many wins over projected the Blazers have had over each of the past five or six years? And what the average is?

I'm going to say six is a reasonable number. So, 48 wins?

 

[Labinot41]

As we sit now, I have a hard time believing we make the playoffs.

Me to

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

I wonder how many wins over projected the Blazers have had over each of the past five or six years? And what the average is?

I'm going to say six is a reasonable number. So, 48 wins?

Except that year Neil said with Aminu at the 4 were a 50+ win team...

 

[illmatic99]

UTA above HOU, DEN at 4, and no LAL stick out like sore thumbs. His formula is largely based on point differentials, iirc, so this isn't all that surprising.

Wonder where he had us this time last year. And how does he rate rookies? Ayton and Luka will have an impact.

 

[BBert]

Except that year Neil said with Aminu at the 4 were a 50+ win team...

Ha, Neil's projections don't count

 

[Boob-No-More]

Ha, Neil's projections don't count

Neither to @KingSpeed's or @HCP's.

BNM

 

[BBert]

Yeah I was thinking more Vegas and guys like Pelton

#nohomers

 

[Orion Bailey]

S2 Annual Prediction thread will go up prior to the first preseason game on Sept. 29th.
Final predictions will be cut off at tip off of game one of the regular season.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

And how does he rate rookies? Ayton and Luka will have an impact.

He projects Doncic as a -0.8 RPM, which he says is 4th best amongst rookie projections. Nothing in the article about Ayton, but does say that he has Phoenix moving up only to 27th in offensive rating (from 30th), so he's apparently not projecting a huge impact.

 

[BigGameDamian]

Neil's looking to make a big shake up come trade deadline.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Anyone have what his predictions were last year?

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Neil's looking to make a big shake up come trade deadline.

I wonder if NO sends other GM’s emails with links to the trade machine, and “PLEASE”, at the end of the email...

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Anyone have what his predictions were last year?

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...otals-standings-every-nba-team-2017-18-season

- West - - East
1. GSW - 1. BOS
2. HOU - 2. CLE
3. SAS - 3. WAS
4. MIN - 4. MIL
5. OKC - 5. CHA
6. LAC - 6. TOR
7. DEN - 7. MIA
8. UTA - 8. DET
9. NOP - 9. PHI
10. POR- 10. ORL
11. DAL- 11. IND
12. MEM- 12. NYK
13. LAL- 13. BRK
14. PHX- 14. CHI
15. SAC- 15. ATL

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...otals-standings-every-nba-team-2017-18-season

- West - - East
1. GSW - 1. BOS
2. HOU - 2. CLE
3. SAS - 3. WAS
4. MIN - 4. MIL
5. OKC - 5. CHA
6. LAC - 6. TOR
7. DEN - 7. MIA
8. UTA - 8. DET
9. NOP - 9. PHI
10. POR- 10. ORL
11. DAL- 11. IND
12. MEM- 12. NYK
13. LAL- 13. BRK
14. PHX- 14. CHI
15. SAC- 15. ATL

The east is kind of a disaster... The west in general is harder to “grade”, LAC traded Blake and there were a ton of injuries, but I think he basically got the right 10 (that we all knew), just it was mixed up a lot more.

 

[e_blazer]

As we sit now, I have a hard time believing we make the playoffs.

As Dame sits right now, he says bullshit.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

As Dame sits right now, he says bullshit.

Nice to know you and Dame are so tight..

Looks t me like the West got a lot better, and our roster took a turn for the worse. With the youth we will have to rely upon, it is going to be a tough year.

 

[e_blazer]

Nice to know you and Dame are so tight..

Looks t me like the West got a lot better, and our roster took a turn for the worse. With the youth we will have to rely upon, it is going to be a tough year.

The only place our roster got worse is the loss of Ed. Curry is an upgrade over Napier. Stauskas, Baldwin, Trent are an upgrade over Pat. Three point shooting should be markedly better than last year, which is critical in Stotts’ system. I think the amount that the loss of Ed is felt depends on how quickly Collins can expand his game. He definitely has more upside than Ed had. I’m also looking for better years from CJ, Nurk and Harkless. The amount of upgrade other teams in the West got remains to be proven on the court.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

I do appreciate your optimism. I would like to think CJ, Nurk and Harkless get better, but I am afraid we have seen what they have to offer. The youngsters are going to take a while, the one that has the most promise is Collins. In my opinion, at this time we only have three guys that would start on a upper tier team, the rest would be bench fillers.

 

[Chris Craig]

Used to being underestimated

 

[KingSpeed]

Nice to know you and Dame are so tight..

Looks t me like the West got a lot better, and our roster took a turn for the worse. With the youth we will have to rely upon, it is going to be a tough year.

People said that last year and we won the division.

 

[Natebishop3]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/...otals-standings-every-nba-team-2017-18-season

- West - - East
1. GSW - 1. BOS
2. HOU - 2. CLE
3. SAS - 3. WAS
4. MIN - 4. MIL
5. OKC - 5. CHA
6. LAC - 6. TOR
7. DEN - 7. MIA
8. UTA - 8. DET
9. NOP - 9. PHI
10. POR- 10. ORL
11. DAL- 11. IND
12. MEM- 12. NYK
13. LAL- 13. BRK
14. PHX- 14. CHI
15. SAC- 15. ATL

So basically before Kawhi was out for the year and LAC blew up their team. That makes sense.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

People said that last year and we won the division.

As we saw in the playoffs, it was a fluke. A hand full of games, and we have a shorter season.

 

[Natebishop3]

People said that last year and we won the division.

If you were in a race, and you were in 8th, and the 5 people in front of you were hit by a car so you finished 3rd.... would you say you were actually the 3rd fastest person in the race?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Nice to know you and Dame are so tight..

Looks t me like the West got a lot better, and our roster took a turn for the worse. With the youth we will have to rely upon, it is going to be a tough year.

The big improvements in the West happened last summer, with many Eastern Conference all stars moving west. Yet, POR still significantly exceeded the projections.

We lost Ed. Period. Pat and Shabazz were easily replaced. We added a significant amount of 3-point shooting.

Collins still has a long way to go on offense, but he will be better this year that last, and I refuse to believe Nurk has already reached his peak at 23.

Yeah, we have some young guys, but the thing about young guys is they tend to get better for several years before they start getting worse.

It's going to be a dog fight in the West, like it was last year. POR could finish between 3rd and 10th, but so could every other team that is fighting for those same spots. The "experts" and forum pessimists have been wrong about POR several years in a row. Will this be the year they are finally right? I guess we'll see.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

If you were in a race, and you were in 8th, and the 5 people in front of you were hit by a car so you finished 3rd.... would you say you were actually the 3rd fastest person in the race?

I'd say, accurately, that we were the 3rd fastest to finish the race, and that's what counts. They don't give out medals to the leaders at the halfway or 2/3 way points. You place where you finish, not where you should have or could have finished.

I'd also advise against betting your hard earned money on players that are prone to run out in front of moving traffic. One advantage of a young team is fewer games missed due to injuries. Injury prone players don't help you win when they are sitting behind the bench in a suit.

You add a 33-year old Paul Millsap to your roster and expect him to perform like he did when he was 30, or even 32, you're setting yourself up to be disappointed. While injuries can happen to anyone, no one should be surprised that guys like Millsap missed time due to injury. Gobert isn't old, but he has missed significant parts of 3 of his 5 seasons in the league. Again, it should not come as a surprise that he missed a significant number of games last year. It's par for the course.

These preseason projection assume everyone will be healthy and perform near their career averages. Injuries are unpredictable, but you shouldn't just assume everyone will be healthy for 82 games. To me, it would make sense to weight player projects based on age and past injury history. It's not a perfect formula, but I think it would be more accurate than just assuming equal health for all 30 teams.

BNM

 

[e_blazer]

If you were in a race, and you were in 8th, and the 5 people in front of you were hit by a car so you finished 3rd.... would you say you were actually the 3rd fastest person in the race?

It’s funny how the narrative around here is often about how injuries helped the Blazers last season. Our all-NBA starting point guard missed one-ninth of the season last year. Our starting power forward missed 13 games. Our starting small forward only played 59 games. Turner and Harkless were both injured in the playoffs, but nobody seems to mention that fact when pointing out how the Blazers were swept by the Pelicans.