LA gone before or on draft day

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Aside from the Deron Williams blind-side trade, when was the last time a superstar was traded when they weren't steering the trade discussion?
The hope that we can somehow trade for a superstar hinges on it happening in a similar fashion to the Wiliams trade - none of the superstars are going to steer a trade to the Blazers. It also hinges on us having the best trade package of all the teams that would be interested. Basically, I think the idea of trading for a future disgruntled superstar is about as likely as LMA carrying the team deep into the Playoffs.
 
This is where your argument is flawed. Nobody else is making an assumption either way with regard to knowing he's leaving or staying. You're the one making an assumption and it would lead to making a bad trade out of fear of a faulty assumption.

Unless, of course, you have insider knowledge, which hopefully our GM does.



How many UFA All-stars have left Portland in the last half-decade?

How many have we had? Like ever?
 
15 guys not too old I'd take over Wes

Harden
Hayward
Chandler
Henderson
Thornton
L Williams
Mayo
Iggy
DeRozen
Redick
Beal
Brooks
Thompson
Ross
Lamb


and Nic
James
Durant
Anthony
Gay
Smith
George
Gallinari
Parsons
Young
Faried
Kidd-Gilchrist
Copeland
K Leonard
Ilyasova
Harris

Not all for the same reason, some are better, some are better defenders, some just have a far better contract for what they produce.

Copeland? lol.
 
Aside from the Deron Williams blind-side trade, when was the last time a superstar was traded when they weren't steering the trade discussion?
The hope that we can somehow trade for a superstar hinges on it happening in a similar fashion to the Wiliams trade - none of the superstars are going to steer a trade to the Blazers. It also hinges on us having the best trade package of all the teams that would be interested. Basically, I think the idea of trading for a future disgruntled superstar is about as likely as LMA carrying the team deep into the Playoffs.

Howard to the Lakers? Bynum to Philly? Hmmmm, LBJ was traded as well.
 
15 guys not too old I'd take over Wes

Harden
Hayward
Chandler
Henderson
Thornton
L Williams
Mayo
Iggy
DeRozen
Redick
Beal
Brooks
Thompson
Ross
Lamb


and Nic
James
Durant
Anthony
Gay
Smith
George
Gallinari
Parsons
Young
Faried
Kidd-Gilchrist
Copeland
K Leonard
Ilyasova
Harris

Not all for the same reason, some are better, some are better defenders, some just have a far better contract for what they produce.

Grass isn't always greener on the other side. lol Copeland. Who the hell is Harris?

edit: and Lamb over Wes? Is this a joke hahah
 
Last edited:
Exactly.

So a poster on this board being "100% sure" of an UFA All-star leaving Portland is absurd and baseless.

I don't remember any big time player ever forcing his way out since Clyde Drexler; and he wasn't a unrestricted anyway.
 
Howard to the Lakers? Bynum to Philly? Hmmmm, LBJ was traded as well.
Howard was steering the trade conversation and even though LAL wasn't one of his targets they took a chance because of their history - we don't have that history to bank on.
Bynum - oh, that's a different trade than the Howard trade? Also, he's a superstar?
LBJ traded? Riiiight...
Seriously though - there may very well be cases of disgruntled superstars being traded to teams they aren't angling to get to. I can't think of any, but would be interested if anyone has one/some that are similar to the Williams trade.
 
Howard was steering the trade conversation and even though LAL wasn't one of his targets they took a chance because of their history - we don't have that history to bank on.
Bynum - oh, that's a different trade than the Howard trade? Also, he's a superstar?
LBJ traded? Riiiight...
Seriously though - there may very well be cases of disgruntled superstars being traded to teams they aren't angling to get to. I can't think of any, but would be interested if anyone has one/some that are similar to the Williams trade.

The Chris Paul trade was forced.
 
Grass isn't always greener on the other side. lol Copeland. Who the hell is Harris?

Tobias Harris

Averaged 17/8/2 last year while shooting 45% from the field and 31% from 3/ Also had a PER of 17.0
20 years old making 1.5 mm per season
 
Tobias Harris

Averaged 17/8/2 last year while shooting 45% from the field and 31% from 3/ Also had a PER of 17.0
20 years old making 1.5 mm per season


He looked like a young Jamison.

Great freaking pickup by the Magic.
 

  • You're certainly welcome to your opinion - but my opinion of your opinion is that it stinks.
    At SG I'll give you: Harden. As equals I'd give you Mayo/Iggy. The fact that you have Ross/Lamb on there is just laughable...though I guess it's purely from a rookie contract/potential POV. Still, to argue that they have a better contract for what they produce is false.
    At SF I'll give you: LBJ, Durant, Melo. As equals I'd give you Gay, Gallinari, George.
    I believe your list proves that both Wes and Nic are far better than "average" for currently playing players.
 
Exactly.

So a poster on this board being "100% sure" of an UFA All-star leaving Portland is absurd and baseless.

Like I said---if I'm wrong, we have a bunch of assets going forward that include at least 2 lotto picks and perhaps more--under our control for at least the next 7 years. If you're wrong, an all-star walked away for absolutely nothing.

How big does the chance he won't resign have to be for you,blazerboy, to trade him? And when do you pull the trigger? I tend to go with "when his value is highest" and "if there's any possible chance he walks away". RR7 made a case (not one I buy into a lot, but a credible one) for hanging on to him until this year's deadline. What's yours?
 
Like I said---if I'm wrong, we have a bunch of assets going forward that include at least 2 lotto picks and perhaps more--under our control for at least the next 7 years. If you're wrong, an all-star walked away for absolutely nothing.

I'll stop you here, because you're wrong.

An all-star didn't walk away for absolutely nothing. He would have walked away leaving us with a good size of cap space. That cap space obviously has value, and quite a bit of value. If we were over the cap and LMA walking didn't give us a bunch of cap space, then you'd be right. I'm not sure, at this point, how I'd compare the value of 2 lotto picks to cap space. It depends on the circumstances.

How big does the chance he won't resign have to be for you,blazerboy, to trade him?


Pretty high...whatever that means. Because we aren't left with "absolutely nothing" if he walks.

And when do you pull the trigger? I tend to go with "when his value is highest" and "if there's any possible chance he walks away".

1) You don't know if his value is highest right now. It might be even higher, at the same, after another year. It isn't like he's old and on the decline.
2) If we traded players when "there's any possible chance they walk" in 2 years, you're going to trade every single player.

RR7 made a case (not one I buy into a lot, but a credible one) for hanging on to him until this year's deadline. What's yours?

Like I said before, I'm not for or against trading him. But either way, I want it to be for a deal that improves the team and a decision that is based on logic and facts, not fear.
 
Alright, you got me. He's staying in Portland forever in your mind. There's absolutely no chance that he'll buck the trend of almost every UFA all-star in the last 10 years and go somewhere other than where he was drafted. His Portland roots run deep.

Outside of Bosh and Wade, what is the list of every UFA in the last 10 years who left his team for somewhere else?
 
All-Stars having forced trades from the Blazers:

Bill Walton
Jim Paxson
Clyde Drexler
Brian Grant
Rasheed Wallace

All-Stars having left Blazers without compensation:

Danny Ainge (not an All-Star but a highly acclaimed 6th man)
Brandon Roy (amnestied because he wouldn't retire on his own)
 
If you don't know how you'd compare 2 top 4 picks to an ~16M in additional cap space, then you're right--we're not on remotely the same level of discussion. But you're semantically right--we could get a trade exception, or ~16M in additional cap space.

You're buying into something worse than fear---hope. Not logic. You think that dropping the number of available trade partners and time left before the player can leave in FA INCREASES trade value? Do an analysis of the last decade of all-stars as they neared UFA. Look at the ones who left to give their teams the gift of cap space, the ones who were traded with more than a year left, the ones who were traded with less than a year left, and the ones who just re-signed with their old teams. Then you can lecture me all you want on logic vs. fear, if you still feel so led.

And don't discount pizza guys.
 
Hell, look at this year. Do think Dwight's staying in LAL? Did you think CP3 was staying in LAC if he didn't get to pick his coach? Is Josh Smith staying in ATL? He's not even an all-star, but a max-ish player.
 
You're buying into something worse than fear---hope. Not logic.

That is what an inordinate amount of posters on this board cling too, unfortunately....

In a perfect world you would like to keep LA and add another significant (all star quality piece) to this team...but I don't see that happening this summer...not with names like Splitter\Gortat\Pekovic...or bench additions like Allen, decent players but enough to propel this team into anything more than a 1st round and out team? I don't think so....and that is why LA will likely opt to leave when his contract is up...1st round and out just isn't good enough, straight from his lips...and this team hasn't even reached that level yet....

Timeline for improvement: "I think just getting into the playoffs isn't good. I've done that. I think one year of maybe, barely getting in or not getting in, and that next year we should be able to really be serious about it."

http://www.blazersedge.com/2013/6/2...cus-aldridge-is-a-candidate-for-a-draft-trade

Niether Matthews or Batum have shown that they can step up in a playoff situation either.....There is a LARGE difference b\t beating a high quality team during the season and beating them in a playoff series...Even with Roy at his best, which was far better than any other player on this roster IMO...POR still wasn't good enough to advance.....

If the goal is just making the playoffs and competing in a series, yeah they can possibly reach that next year with some of these additions, but transforming into a legitmate playoff contender? I do not see that happening...
 
Last edited:
There's hope on both sides, don't paint it like it's only those hoping LMA doesn't leave. You HOPE that when we trade him, we find a way to improve as a team. You HOPE that we get a player, or group of players that can be better than he is. You HOPE we can tank to get a true superstar next season. You HOPE that a collection of assets is better than one very good piece.
 
And what is the trend of stars leaving in the last 10 years? Outside of LEBRON(sorry) and Bosh? I'm not interested in speculating on where guys go THIS offseason. That doesn't at all show a trend.
 
Once you realize that the Blazers as currently built are struggling to fight for a playoff spot in the West, everyone not named Lillard is expendable. The name of the NBA game is winning, and if you aren't going to win with the players you got, you go get new ones. LA will never have a higher value than right now, and he sure as hell isn't the leader that the Blazers need to kick them to "the next level". Brandon Roy may have been that player, but we saw how that worked out. Lillard might be as well. But LaMarcus isn't. Yes, he's an All-Star. Yes he puts up numbers. But he's not a WINNER. He doesn't have that fire in his gut, that killer instinct in his eye that says "I'm winning this fucking basketball game and there's nothing you can do about it".

I'm not saying trading him will bring in a player of his caliber, but it will command a price for the team that trades for him... good role players, draft picks, etc. And the Blazers can build up from Lillard, Leonard, Batum, Matthews, along with this year's draft pick and whomever comes in via the trade.

Swing for the fences.
 
If you don't know how you'd compare 2 top 4 picks to an ~16M in additional cap space, then you're right--we're not on remotely the same level of discussion. But you're semantically right--we could get a trade exception, or ~16M in additional cap space.

Sorry, I must have missed where we can trade LMA for two future top 4 picks. Can you point me to where that was mentioned?

If $16M in cap space is "absolutely worthless", then why would a team be able to trade for a good player with that absolutely worthless cap space?

You're buying into something worse than fear---hope. Not logic.

It's amazing that you've told yourself so many times that he's leaving that you actually think it is a fact.

What's worse is that you have managed to convince yourself that those of us who admit we don't have insider, legit, GM knowledge of LMA's conversations and admit that we really don't know what he'll do, are the ones that are being illogical.

Another hilarious part is where you claim others are "buying into hope" but you're pushing to move an all-star for draft picks. Draft picks are basically the definition of "hope".

But yeah, I'm the one buying into hope and not logic. Oh my.


You think that dropping the number of available trade partners and time left before the player can leave in FA INCREASES trade value?

Strawman after strawman.

Do an analysis of the last decade of all-stars as they neared UFA. Look at the ones who left to give their teams the gift of cap space, the ones who were traded with more than a year left, the ones who were traded with less than a year left, and the ones who just re-signed with their old teams.

You're making the claim. You back it up by doing the study and provide the data.

Then you can lecture me all you want on logic vs. fear, if you still feel so led.

It's exactly what you're doing.

- You're making an assumption without any inside information
- You're convincing yourself that your assumption is "100% correct"
- You're valuing $16M in cap space as "absolutely nothing", but still think that we can trade him to a team that has $16M of that worthless cap space.
- You're assuming that the number of available trading partners will drop in the next 6 months or year
- You want to trade every player if "there is any possible chance they will leave in 2 years"

I hope this isn't how you approach investing in real life.
 
Last edited:
If the goal is just making the playoffs and competing in a series, yeah they can possibly reach that next year with some of these additions...
And we need to remember that even just making the Playoffs is going to require a significant improvement - vaulting THREE teams just to get the #8 spot. Too many people seem to take it for granted that we'll make that leap. And even though I have agreed that it's a very real possibility, that's all it is - a POSSIBILITY. We don't have a lot to work with, so moving up 3 spots might be asking too much.
We'd all like to think that with Kobe out for the year that we'll finish ahead of LAL - but given that they're the Lakers and get trades done, we can't say for certain that we will. But for the sake of the argument we'll just say that we pass them. One down.
The next most obvious teams are UTH and DAL. DAL is angling for Howard and won't be willing to throw another season of Dirk's career in the toilet. They already finished better than us - leaping them will be tough. 20/80 for leaping them? UTH is going to make some pretty significant changes this summer. They were a fairly poorly balanced team last season and you have to figure they'll have better balance going into next season. But what moves will they make? Will it translate right away, or are they looking a couple years down the road? 50/50 on leaping Utah?
DEN is another team that's up in the air. But, they were SIGNIFICANTLY better than us this past season. We have to both be significantly better ourselves, and hope that they are significantly worse. That's a lot to ask.
We shouldn't just fall into the trap of expecting a C to put us into the Playoffs.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top