Let's talk about rebounding

[magnifier661]

I know this is pre-season; but this is the only sample we have so far. With that said, our team rebounding is pretty spectacular!

Blazers vs. Clippers (10/7/13): 50/44 (+6)

Blazers vs. Suns (10/09/13): 38/43 (-5)

Blazers vs. Utah (10/11/13): 49/33 (+16)

Blazers vs. Utah (10/16/13): 57/43 (+14)

Blazers vs. Clippers (10/18/13): 56/38 (+18)

Blazers vs. Queens (10/20/13): 54/40 (+14)

The dominance is really impressive! If we can keep this type of dominance in the regular season; we have a good shot at being a top 3 seed. Keep it up Blazers!

 

[julius]

Top 3 seed?

Maybe top 3 seed based on rebounds, but not wins.

 

[THE HCP]

C'Mon man......these type of non realistic predictions are not helping your street cred around here.

 

[magnifier661]

Top 3 seed?

Maybe top 3 seed based on rebounds, but not wins.

If Portland starts averaging 55 rebounds a game; they will be a top 3 team in the West. You should look up teams that averaged that amount and where they seed. It's a good indicator how a team's record reflects their rebounding and + over other teams.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Mags, your homerism is starting to become such a stretch, I'm starting to wonder if you're doing it in jest.

I mean, we still have many weaknesses, but our alleged rebounding prowess will enable us to overcome some of these weaknesses. I like where we're at, and I have maintained throughout the summer we are a playoff team, and still hold that to be true. We have the potential to surprise some and finish stronger than where the pundits put us, but in no way do I see us as a top-3 seed. If we avoid the injury bug, and everything else is perfect, I see us maybe finishing at 5. Even as big as I homer as I am, I'd like to believe for more, but I just can't see it.

 

[magnifier661]

C'Mon man......these type of non realistic predictions are not helping your street cred around here.

This will be bumped when we are top 3 in the West!

 

[THE HCP]

I'll get it tattooed on me if it happens FAMS!

 

[magnifier661]

I'll get it tattooed on me if it happens FAMS!

Call your local Tattoo Artist and schedule it in. By mid season; we will be top 3.

 

[Eastoff]

Call your local Tattoo Artist and schedule it in. By mid season; we will be top 3.

This isn't about midseason though. It's about finishing.

 

[magnifier661]

This isn't about midseason though. It's about finishing.

Oh I know, but if the Blazers are top 3 by mid season; I think the thought of finishing 3rd at season's end could be more realistic.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Hey, I like where your mind is at!
However.....................
Look up teams that average 20 turnovers a game. That stat might suggest we're a bottom 3 team

I'm with you in that I think we'll be a 7th seed near the end challenging for a 6th seed. 3rd seed? Too much has to come together. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would have to start with cutting WAY down on those turnovers.

If Portland starts averaging 55 rebounds a game; they will be a top 3 team in the West. You should look up teams that averaged that amount and where they seed. It's a good indicator how a team's record reflects their rebounding and + over other teams.

 

[magnifier661]

Hey, I like where your mind is at!
However.....................
Look up teams that average 20 turnovers a game. That stat might suggest we're a bottom 3 team

I'm with you in that I think we'll be a 7th seed near the end challenging for a 6th seed. 3rd seed? Too much has to come together. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would have to start with cutting WAY down on those turnovers.

Yeah the turn overs are a problem; but I think that has more to do with a lot of new faces. I think by 20 games in, they will clean that up. I won't say they will be "Nate-like" at protecting the ball; but they won't be a 16-20 turn over team.

 

[HomerLovesKoolAid]

All kidding aside, I'm not ruling it out.

If a team gels and really clicks, gains confidence over a season then unpredictable things can happen. Who thought the '77 Blazers would go all the way on their first playoff stint as a low seed? (6th?)

Maybe Mags isn't as crazy as he seems, or looks, or our best testing indicates.

 

[Shooter]

I was thinking about starting a thread on rebounding myself. It's been very impressive so far. I saw that Will Barton got 10 rebounds the other night, and he's not even one of our best rebounders. If the whole team can rebound this way, it bodes very well for our prospects this year.

 

[magnifier661]

I wish I knew how to navigate Basketball Reference to see the 55 rebounds per game and standings. Anyone else knows how to do this? I have reason to believe that teams with a 55+ rebounding average all make the top 3 in their conference.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I was thinking about starting a thread on rebounding myself. It's been very impressive so far. I saw that Will Barton got 10 rebounds the other night, and he's not even one of our best rebounders. If the whole team can rebound this way, it bodes very well for our prospects this year.

I have as a working hypothesis that Lopez makes everyone else on the team better rebounders.

 

[magnifier661]

I have as a working hypothesis that Lopez makes everyone else on the team better rebounders.

I agree with that hypothesis

 

[Reep]

I have as a working hypothesis that Lopez makes everyone else on the team better rebounders.

They talked about this before preseason, but I didn't give it much credit. The thought was they Rolo boxes out well and ties up the other team's center, which then leaves more room for teammates to get the board. We will need more data points before I fully buy in, but there is some evidence.

 

[magnifier661]

Okay so I can't make this all nice and neat; so I am going to link the top teams in the last 5 years and how their rebounding average is. It seems no one really gets 55 rebounds. Usually the top 3 are averaging around 53 a game.

Based on that; here is what I came up with.

2008/09: #1 Portland (53.5), #2 Boston (52.8), #3 Cleveland (52) Houston (51.9) and Lakers (51.5). All teams were top 4 in their conference.

2009-10: #1 Cleveland (52.4), #2 Memphis (52.3), San Antonio (52.0), Orlando (51.9), Utah (51.9) and OKC (51.7). All were top 4 in their conference.

2010/11: #1 Chicago (53.5), #2 Orlando (52.1), #3Miami (51.8), #4Sacramento (51.6), #5Lakers (51.5), #6 OKC 51.3. Only Sac didn't make the top 4 of their conference.

2011-12: #1 Chicago (53.9), #2 Lakers (53.0), #3 Utah (51.8), #4 Denver (51.7), #5 OKC (51.4), #6 Miami (51.1). All but Utah had a top 4 record of their conference.

2012-13: #1 Indiana (52.9), #2 Memphis (52.2), #2 Brooklyn (52.2), #4 Denver (52.0), #5 OKC (51.8), #6 Clippers (51.6). All these teams made the top 4.

It seems the sweet spot is around 52 rebounds a game should guarantee a top 4 spot.

 

[StumptownHoliday]

3 seed at various points in the season? Perhaps. 3 seed at the end of the season? No way.

We're gonna have to pass a lot of very strong teams at the top to do that, and I don't think we can.

Now, does that mean i think the team is weak? Hell nah. We've already seen some really nice growth out of the young guys (Freeland I see you cuz) and this seems like a real team, with some grind in them. I really really like our vet additions. Neil Olshey is a good GM my dudes. I truly believe it.

If LMA goes nuts this year, along with Dame, maybe a 3-4 seed discussion could be possible. But we need to get our turnovers down. I wish Nate McMillan could be an assistant coach here.

 

[Reep]

I think Mags point is likely correct. If the Blazers could average 53+ rebounds, then they likely would be top 4 in the conference. I just don't think they will be able to average that over a full season. But, if LMA and Batum rebound significantly more, then maybe.

Does anyone in here really doubt that if LMA had a career year (possible), and Dame was an all-star (possible) and Batum likewise had an injury free year that we could not be top 4? I don't doubt it, but it seems unlikely all of that will happen.

 

[magnifier661]

I think Mags point is likely correct. If the Blazers could average 53+ rebounds, then they likely would be top 4 in the conference. I just don't think they will be able to average that over a full season. But, if LMA and Batum rebound significantly more, then maybe.

Does anyone in here really doubt that if LMA had a career year (possible), and Dame was an all-star (possible) and Batum likewise had an injury free year that we could not be top 4? I don't doubt it, but it seems unlikely all of that will happen.

If the Lillard, Aldridge and Batum tandem could average 55 points per game with a minute average of 36 or less; then it could easily happen. We need to get their minutes down; which means other players can get more points.

 

[StumptownHoliday]

If the Lillard, Aldridge and Batum tandem could average 55 points per game with a minute average of 36 or less; then it could easily happen. We need to get their minutes down; which means other players can get more points.

One thing I feel about this year's Blazers team is that we won't be losing many games to lesser teams than us. I think we have too many vets and hungry dudes to lose focus like that (hopefully Batum, in all his laissez-faire French glory, will be focused 100% of the time this year). I think our real tests will be against the contenders.

 

[magnifier661]

One thing I feel about this year's Blazers team is that we won't be losing many games to lesser teams than us. I think we have too many vets and hungry dudes to lose focus like that (hopefully Batum, in all his laissez-faire French glory, will be focused 100% of the time this year). I think our real tests will be against the contenders.

Amazingly last season, we played all the contenders really tough.

 

[StumptownHoliday]

Amazingly last season, we played all the contenders really tough.

Exactly. We have competitors on this team who are obviously into challenges, and lose focus when things get mundane. But our rooks are older, LMA is less patient, and we have vets who will hopefully keep the kids focused.

 

[tlongII]

We have a big team. I've always wanted a lot of size on our teams and this year we have it. We aren't quite like we were with Sabas, Sheed, and Grant, but we've got very good size.

 

[magnifier661]

We have a big team. I've always wanted a lot of size on our teams and this year we have it. We aren't quite like we were with Sabas, Sheed, and Grant, but we've got very good size.

Yeah I'm there with ya. We aren't Sabas, Sheed and Grant Size; but I see us equalling the 2008-09 Blazers size.

 

[THE HCP]

Man Robinson really reminded me of BGrant last night!

 

[tlongII]

Man Robinson really reminded me of BGrant last night!

He should study tape of Grant. He can become that type of player if he continues to put in the work.

 

[magnifier661]

He should study tape of Grant. He can become that type of player if he continues to put in the work.

Maybe he just needs to down a triple espresso before each game like Grant did?