Those polls show Obama beats republican candidates in NY and California.
In states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada... you know, the swing states... Obama's in deep shit.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/60640_Page4.html
And putting aside the bleak psychological climate Obama faces as he starts his run, the physical terrain — the states needed to add up to 270 electoral votes — looks more difficult than Democratic officials had expected even a few months ago. Obama’s electoral map from 2008 will be tough to duplicate, with all three perennial bellwethers — Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania — once again up for grabs.
The states Obama won in 2008 have lost six electoral votes, complicating his quest. And in most of the nine states Obama won that Sen. John Kerry lost in 2004 — Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia and Colorado — Democrats took a drubbing in the midterms. One poll has half the voters in Ohio down on Obama’s job performance, for instance.
Democrats say they are encouraged that the Republican governors in three critical states — Rick Scott in Florida, John Kasich in Ohio and Scott Walker in Wisconsin — have taken a hit in polls in recent months and look as if they may be less help to the Republican nominee than they would be if they were politically stronger.
Looking at Obama’s 2008 swing-state wins, Democrats have all but given up on Indiana and know that he will have trouble keeping two other traditionally red states, Virginia and North Carolina; may have been hurt in Florida by unhappiness in the Jewish community about Obama’s handling of Israel; and will have a dogfight for the Rust Belt prizes of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan (where one respected state poll had him narrowly lagging Romney). Obama’s reelection strategy depends on running strong in the Mountain West, most critically in Colorado.
But without at least a couple of the traditional bellwether states, Obama will be a one-term president.