Lopez signed, what to expect

[Further]

I'm more of a fan of RoLo than a lot of people here. I see a player who has been improving at both ends of the court. And at only 25 years old, I expect him to continue. At 25, Przybilla could hardly stay in the NBA, but he kept improving. Both these players arent the most jumpy athletic players, but they are tough, smart players. Those types, especially on defense, improve for longer.

I would not be at all surprised to see RoLo end next season with a PER around 20-22. Huge pickup and we will look back on this signing as a much more important gain than most people think at the moment.

My hope is that on a new team, with Aldridge already not being the best rebounder, Lopez gets better in this area fast. This is going to be the one big issue I have with him because as much as I want to think it's a positioning thing, this is one of the more consistent stats for players year over year. Hopefully all the other players kick in and also T-Rob can be a legit rebounder if he sees enough court time.

Overall, very very happy we got Lopez and not some zero like Zaza, or a overhyped player like Asik. Go Blazers!

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

I'm a fan of Sideshow Bob, and was hoping we'd go after him last year after missing out on Hibbert. So I like your post, and hope you're right about RoLo.

 

[Boise Blazer]

He wasnt my first thought or choice but the more I look it the more I see a nice mix of experience with room to grow and at a great price for starting center. I honestly dont care about stats as long as he fits into what we need. Im guessing since he went to Stanford he at least has some smarts and that kind of player works well in a role player. I have high hopes for him to work well with our team.

 

[magnifier661]

Great post and I find it peculiar that every center that played beside Aldridge had way better rebounding %. I suspect he jumps an additional 3-4 rebounds per game. Just playing next to Aldridge.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I think Lopez will do fine.

The problem: people undervalue what Hickson did on the boards. I'm afraid the loss of rebounding will largely off-set the gain on defense.

 

[magnifier661]

I think Lopez will do fine.

The problem: people undervalue what Hickson did on the boards. I'm afraid the loss of rebounding will largely off-set the gain on defense.

But good defense leads to better offense. If hickson was just slightly worse on rebounding, yet better on defense; I think we value him more.

 

[Further]

Great post and I find it peculiar that every center that played beside Aldridge had way better rebounding %. I suspect he jumps an additional 3-4 rebounds per game. Just playing next to Aldridge.

Dont know about 3-4, hope you are right. I think 2 is pretty realistic. JJ jumped 3 rebound per 36 when playing with LMA. I do expect an increase from Lopez, but how much?

 

[PapaG]

I think Lopez will do fine.

The problem: people undervalue what Hickson did on the boards. I'm afraid the loss of rebounding will largely off-set the gain on defense.

The team actually had a better rebound % when Hickson wasn't on the floor, though.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

The book on him is he is a defensive presence with few offensive skills, slow footed but can rebound and should bring some toughness to the defense.

I think the big question is will he continue to develop. Add more to his offensive game and will his defense translate into good team defense (as I think NO was one of the few teams with a worst defense than the Blazers).

Lopez could be one of those one hit wonders who had a good year (relative) on a bad team or a big man who is starting to figure things out. My concern and why I fall more on the side that he will be average at best is because NO doesn't seem to value him much. If NO thought he was a player on the rise I think they would have found another way to create cap space. Hopefully Olshey sees something in him that NO doesn't.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Sometimes big rebounders don't necessarily help the team rebound. I saw somewhere that actually his team rebounded a lot better when RoLo was on the court than not, and the writer speculated that he must be really good at boxing out his guy, allowing his teammate to get the rebound.

Remember when the Blazers habitually led the league in rebounding? Our leading rebounder was Buck, at about 8 a game.

Fortunately some of our guards are very good rebounders for their position (especially Will Barton and CJ).

 

[PapaG]

Sometimes big rebounders don't necessarily help the team rebound.

I posted it about Hickson a few posts ago, but here are the actual ON/OFF numbers for Hickson last season.

ON
OFF
DIFF

Offensive Rebounding
28.9%
27.0%
+1.9%
Defensive Rebounding
70.1%
73.2%
-3.1%
Total Rebounding
49.5%
50.1%
-0.6%

The stats say that the Blazers were a better rebounding team without Hickson on the court.

 

[PapaG]

Actually, the Blazers were flat-out a better team w/out Hickson on the court, period, last season.

Stat
ON Court
OFF Court
Net
Minutes
2322
1648
58%
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.
105.8
107.3
-1.5
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
110.9
109.5
+1.5
Net Points per 100 Possessions
-5.1
-2.1
-3.0

http://www.82games.com/1213/12POR15.HTM#onoff

 

[PapaG]

LMA's ON/OFF

Stat
ON Court
OFF Court
Net
Minutes
2790
1180
70%
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.
108.2
102.4
+5.8
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
109.3
112.7
-3.4
Net Points per 100 Possessions
-1.1
-10.3
+9.2

 

[PapaG]

Lopez Rebounding ON/OFF for NO last year

Stat
ON
OFF
DIFF

Offensive Rebounding
33.3%
30.6%
+2.7%
Defensive Rebounding
73.6%
69.2%
+4.3%
Total Rebounding
53.4%
49.9%
+3.5%

 

[RR7]

Sometimes big rebounders don't necessarily help the team rebound. I saw somewhere that actually his team rebounded a lot better when RoLo was on the court than not, and the writer speculated that he must be really good at boxing out his guy, allowing his teammate to get the rebound.

I've banged the drum a lot for Robin this offseason, and will continue here. Im excited about the pickup. Primarily because he is still really young. I like that it isn't a desperation type of move. Ok, here's more drum banging.
New Orleans was 8th in the league in defensive rebounding. 74.4%. 6th in offensive rebounding at 29.2%. Out of everyone who played over 500 minutes for them, Robinhad the best offensive rebounding percentage at 12.4. I think he was 15th in the league. On defense, it's a different story. Aminu, Davis, Smith and Anderson all had better DRB%. Henry, Thomas and Vasquez were all about the same. What it shows is that they were a good defensive rebounding team. And clearly, they crashed the boards, since their SF was their top defensive rebounder, adn heir PG was as good as their C. So a whole team of good rebounders, basically. You don't, then, expect much drop off from group A to B to C, etc. Yet when Robin was off the court, there was a 7% difference in TRB%. Second only to Aminu's 9.3%. Davis and Vasquez were comparable, a +2.5-3.0 ish. Who knows. Could be me looking at stats that I want to see, and letting the stats present something incorrect, because I want it to be correct, but I started liking him more after looking at his stats, not liking him first.


All that being said, I've always found a team's overall scheme to play a big role in things like rebounding percentage. Very often, we see one guy on a team act as your designated rebounder. We saw it with Hickson. Sure, he would battle for rebounds, and I appreciate that. But he was also the designated guy who would "collect" the rebound on a missed FT, when the opponent put no pressure on the rebound. On a long shot attempt, when the opponent would not even attempt to crash the boards, usually it was his rebound, and other guys would head back up the floor. Some teams do it, some don't. A lot of teams crash the boards. But it seems often when you watch a game, most teams have that designated ok, you go get it guy. And when he's off the floor, someone else fills that role very easily. WHich I imagine could be why we saw on/off numbers like we did with JJ.

 

[BBert]

The important thing is: I hate this "RoLo" nickname, almost as much as "MyLe".

I'm going with "Rob Lo" and "Nards".

 

[ABM]

The important thing is: I hate this "RoLo" nickname, almost as much as "MyLe".

I'm going with "Rob Lo"

Let's just hope he doesn't make home videos. The Oden saga was bad enough.

 

[magnifier661]

I've banged the drum a lot for Robin this offseason, and will continue here. Im excited about the pickup. Primarily because he is still really young. I like that it isn't a desperation type of move. Ok, here's more drum banging.
New Orleans was 8th in the league in defensive rebounding. 74.4%. 6th in offensive rebounding at 29.2%. Out of everyone who played over 500 minutes for them, Robinhad the best offensive rebounding percentage at 12.4. I think he was 15th in the league. On defense, it's a different story. Aminu, Davis, Smith and Anderson all had better DRB%. Henry, Thomas and Vasquez were all about the same. What it shows is that they were a good defensive rebounding team. And clearly, they crashed the boards, since their SF was their top defensive rebounder, adn heir PG was as good as their C. So a whole team of good rebounders, basically. You don't, then, expect much drop off from group A to B to C, etc. Yet when Robin was off the court, there was a 7% difference in TRB%. Second only to Aminu's 9.3%. Davis and Vasquez were comparable, a +2.5-3.0 ish. Who knows. Could be me looking at stats that I want to see, and letting the stats present something incorrect, because I want it to be correct, but I started liking him more after looking at his stats, not liking him first.


All that being said, I've always found a team's overall scheme to play a big role in things like rebounding percentage. Very often, we see one guy on a team act as your designated rebounder. We saw it with Hickson. Sure, he would battle for rebounds, and I appreciate that. But he was also the designated guy who would "collect" the rebound on a missed FT, when the opponent put no pressure on the rebound. On a long shot attempt, when the opponent would not even attempt to crash the boards, usually it was his rebound, and other guys would head back up the floor. Some teams do it, some don't. A lot of teams crash the boards. But it seems often when you watch a game, most teams have that designated ok, you go get it guy. And when he's off the floor, someone else fills that role very easily. WHich I imagine could be why we saw on/off numbers like we did with JJ.

Reppd and I couldn't agree more

 

[jlprk]

The important thing is: I hate this "RoLo" nickname, almost as much as "MyLe". I'm going with "Rob Lo" and "Nards".

I hate the nickname which implies he's just a sideshow.

No one has said it, so I will: Lopez has missed a fourth of his games, every season except the last one. Last season may have been a Przybilla-like temporary peak of his injury-filled career.

 

[MickZagger]

Let's just hope he doesn't make home videos. The Oden saga was bad enough.

still having nightmares about that?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Screech will put up 10/6/1 for 60 games

 

[1eyejack]

Screech will put up 10/6/1 for 60 games

No way he's that low. I predict 12/8.5/1.9

 

[Mediocre Man]

No way he's that low. I predict 12/8.5/1.9

Not sure he will get the minutes for that, but that would be great. I have a feeling we are on the same track as to what to expect from him when he's on the floor though

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think 10/6/1.5 in about 30 minutes of action a night is a pretty middle of the road prediction. As for how he'll impact the bottom line in terms of wins and losses, I guess that comes down to how healthy he stays, but he should be a somewhat noticeable upgrade over Hickson in terms of protecting the rim. He hasn't been much of a rebounder during his time in the league, but considering what the Blazers are paying him I don't think you can expect a dominant player in the three phases this team needs in a center (individual defense, team defense and rebounding).

 

[Nikolokolus]

No way he's that low. I predict 12/8.5/1.9

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lopezro01.html

No way huh?

 

[Boise Blazer]

Unlike some on here I am a Meyers Leonard fan and have high hopes for him but if Lopez continues to develop like he did last year and stay healthy I can actually see Lopez eating up a lot of minutes and making Leonard expendable.

The other outside option is starting to use Leonard more at PF to get more minutes and/or as a PF if we did move LMA at some point. Not likely but something to ponder.

 

[mgb]

Sometimes big rebounders don't necessarily help the team rebound. I saw somewhere that actually his team rebounded a lot better when RoLo was on the court than not, and the writer speculated that he must be really good at boxing out his guy, allowing his teammate to get the rebound.

Remember when the Blazers habitually led the league in rebounding? Our leading rebounder was Buck, at about 8 a game.

Fortunately some of our guards are very good rebounders for their position (especially Will Barton and CJ).

Ya, we had Duckworth as a center then. He use to get ragged on because he didn't get a lot of rebounds, but he did box his man out which allowed others to get rebounds and as you said we led the league in rebounds.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I forgot that 2011-12 was a shortened season. So he has basically played every game the last two seasons. That is a good sign.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

My "realistic" expectations:

70 GP, 65 GS, 28 MPG
12.5 PTS, 9.0 REB, 1.7 BLK, ~19.5 PER.

His points per game and blocks per game rate is similar to last season (minutes adjusted), but the LMA factor raises his rebounding up about 3 rebounds over his normal rate. Because of this, his PER goes up a bit (but I'm totally guessing how much).

He misses 12 games due to being hurt, and as he comes back, Meyers tries his hand at starting a few games.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

The mpg is the biggest question, I think. IMO, he was brought in to be the clear-cut starter at the center spot, and play 30+ mpg, but looking at his history, I see that prior to last season he had never averaged more than 20. Seems like this will be the first time that he's been the unquestioned #1 center, and that could have a big impact on what he can provide.

He's been a consistent 15pts/36m producer over the past 4 years; any chance that continues? If so, and we can get 13/7 from him over 32 min (consistent with the 15/8 per 36 he's averaged), I will be pretty happy. If his rebounding numbers increase (as many have mentioned tends to occur with centers who play alongside Aldridge)--say 9/game--I'd be thrilled.