Lottery pick: #6, 2nd Rnd Picks: #36, and #57

[TBpup]

Until May 17, when we find out where our pick is and if we get the New Orleans pick, this is where we are slotted for now. A BIG thank you to the Knicks for going on a hot streak to close the season to make the Pelicans pick #11 instead of #12.....as long as it doesn't jump into the Top-4.

Mock Drafts have changed tremendously since earlier in the year and players some hoped might fall to the Blazers at the 2nd pick, are now out of reach either due to the Pels pick falling from around #9 to #11, or players like Duren, having their projected slot go down and then back up again.

Both picks conveying to the Blazers is huge for the 'get Dame a championship' path. Getting the Blazer pick into the Top-3, would be even better.

Every get out their Rabbit's foot, 4-leaf clover, or whatever else you have for a lucky charm.

THE BLAZERS NEED WHATEVER GOOD FORTUNE YOU CAN BRING!!

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Just a thought. Too many threads?
We have pelicans pick thread, Big board thread, Now a Lottery picks thread. There will most certainly be more draft threads.

Maybe we could combine these?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I have often thought we would've been better off NOT jumping to the #1 pick in the Oden draft. Yes, of course, we could've taken Durant #1, which would probably have been optimal. But if we'd stayed where we were and not moved up, I think there was a strong possibility of us taking Joakim Noah. That would've been pretty fucking awesome in itself. I think we would've also held on to Zach Randolph (which might not have been good - I think him bouncing around the league was good for him and he wouldn't've become the Memphis version of himself if he hadn't, but let's pretend he would).

I also think all of the generally accepted top 4 players have bust potential and that there are safer players at #6
Holmgren: weighs less than me, and I'm 6'2" and nobody would call me fat.
Banchero: there are a lot of players who can score like bejeesus but are fringe NBA players. Can he be a two-way player?
Jabari Smith Jr.: probably the highest floor and least likely to be a bust, but could nonetheless top out at "decent starter". Looks a little stiff.
Jaden Ivey: Got pretty much dominated by Johnny Davis. Common NBA comp is Ja Morant, and we've seen how non-vital he is to the Grizzlies.

This is nit-picky, of course, but I feel like there are Saddiq Bey-type solid all-around can't miss players available further down. I would be very happy with a Davis/Sochan draft, myself. Conversely, the Sharpe fans can hope for Sharpe at 6, but it would take a real ballsy GM to take him in the top 3.

ALSO: if we jump up in the lottery then there's more temptation to trade the pick because it would bring back a better player in trade. I don't want us trading picks. I'm fucking tired of not keeping our picks!

 

[Hoopguru]

For me at 11 I would take Williams, 7'1" -7'6" span and just a beast around the hoop. He will be the best center taken in the draft, imo.

 

[Natebishop3]

Just a thought. Too many threads?
We have pelicans pick thread, Big board thread, Now a Lottery picks thread. There will most certainly be more draft threads.

Maybe we could combine these?

Everyone always wants to merge everything into mega threads and frankly I stop reading a lot of those.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Everyone always wants to merge everything into mega threads and frankly I stop reading a lot of those.

Ahh. I see your point but i also seem to lose track of what has been said?

 

[Natebishop3]

Ahh. I see your point but i also seem to lose track of what has been said?

Just an example, but some breaking news or something will get posted in one of those mega threads and I won't see it until someone pulls it out and posts it as a standalone thread...... and then people get annoyed because "it was already posted in the mega thread."

 

[wizenheimer]

Just a thought. Too many threads?
We have pelicans pick thread, Big board thread, Now a Lottery picks thread. There will most certainly be more draft threads.

Maybe we could combine these?

I think I'll channel my inner Rasta and make a pick thread...no, really

 

[Hoopguru]

I have often thought we would've been better off NOT jumping to the #1 pick in the Oden draft. Yes, of course, we could've taken Durant #1, which would probably have been optimal. But if we'd stayed where we were and not moved up, I think there was a strong possibility of us taking Joakim Noah. That would've been pretty fucking awesome in itself. I think we would've also held on to Zach Randolph (which might not have been good - I think him bouncing around the league was good for him and he wouldn't've become the Memphis version of himself if he hadn't, but let's pretend he would).

I also think all of the generally accepted top 4 players have bust potential and that there are safer players at #6
Holmgren: weighs less than me, and I'm 6'2" and nobody would call me fat.
Banchero: there are a lot of players who can score like bejeesus but are fringe NBA players. Can he be a two-way player?
Jabari Smith Jr.: probably the highest floor and least likely to be a bust, but could nonetheless top out at "decent starter". Looks a little stiff.
Jaden Ivey: Got pretty much dominated by Johnny Davis. Common NBA comp is Ja Morant, and we've seen how non-vital he is to the Grizzlies.

This is nit-picky, of course, but I feel like there are Saddiq Bey-type solid all-around can't miss players available further down. I would be very happy with a Davis/Sochan draft, myself. Conversely, the Sharpe fans can hope for Sharpe at 6, but it would take a real ballsy GM to take him in the top 3.

ALSO: if we jump up in the lottery then there's more temptation to trade the pick because it would bring back a better player in trade. I don't want us trading picks. I'm fucking tired of not keeping our picks!

So why not then tank in 2023 if you are wanting to collect picks. I'm convinced there are fans that get more excited about tanking for the nugget than wanting to advance through the playoffs. Id rather be the sixth seed in the playoffs than have the 6th pick.

 

[blazerfan11]

For me at 11 I would take Williams, 7'1" -7'6" span and just a beast around the hoop. He will be the best center taken in the draft, imo.

The reason Jalen Duren is ranked ahead of him as a draft prospect is that Duren is 2 years younger at an age (18 years old) that a lot of improvements are usually seen.
So the experts are projecting that Duren will be better than Mark Williams when he is 20 years old.

 

[oldmangrouch]

So why not then tank in 2023 if you are wanting to collect picks. I'm convinced there are fans that get more excited about tanking for the nugget than wanting to advance through the playoffs. Id rather be the sixth seed in the playoffs than have the 6th pick.

I get what you are saying, but what if the realistic ceiling is 7-10? How bad does it have to get before you sacrifice the short-term for a long-term plan?

I may be in the minority, but I hate the new play-in system. I don't know if it will discourage tanking, but I am convinced it will encourage teams to settle for mediocrity.

 

[Hoopguru]

I get what you are saying, but what if the realistic ceiling is 7-10? How bad does it have to get before you sacrifice the short-term for a long-term plan?

I may be in the minority, but I hate the new play-in system. I don't know if it will discourage tanking, but I am convinced it will encourage teams to settle for mediocrity.

The NBA knows that marketing playoffs, play-ins, and a in season tourney is what draws fans and television contracts. But the revenue is generated not so much from ticket sales but tv revenue, especially from playoffs.
After hearing Dame apologize for the shitty season last night and a "it aint going to happen next year" sounds like our tank fest may be over. Doesn't sound like they want to implement 'The Process" for the next 5 plus years, but I bet there are those that would love too.

 

[oldmangrouch]

The NBA knows that marketing playoffs, play-ins, and a in season tourney is what draws fans and television contracts. But the revenue is generated not so much from ticket sales but tv revenue, especially from playoffs.
After hearing Dame apologize for the shitty season last night and a "it aint going to happen next year" sounds like our tank fest may be over. Doesn't sound like they want to implement 'The Process" for the next 5 plus years, but I bet there are those that would love too.

Just out of curiosity, if Dame was younger would you be willing to take a step back for, say, 2 years in exchange for a chance* to break into the league's upper echelons?

* There will never be a guarantee.

 

[TBpup]

The reason Jalen Duren is ranked ahead of him as a draft prospect is that Duren is 2 years younger at an age (18 years old) that a lot of improvements are usually seen.
So the experts are projecting that Duren will be better than Mark Williams when he is 20 years old.

Duren has been all over. He was a projected Top-5 in places earlier on. Then dropped in the the early teens, before climbing his way back up. Depending on the Mock, he is floating mostly between 8-11. Would LOVE to get Duren at #11, but doubt he drops that far. Sharpe is the biggest variable as he could have the highest ceiling, but having not seen him play since high school, a GM is going to have to be quite confident of his projection. I think Griffin will be a better pro than he was in college. Smith is the most immediate plug-n-play fit for the Blazers, but certainly has some room to develop. Murray would also fit right away, but I don't want him playing PF as a rookie....needs to get stronger. Not sure he has the handle for SF yet either.

 

[Hoopguru]

Just out of curiosity, if Dame was younger would you be willing to take a step back for, say, 2 years in exchange for a chance* to break into the league's upper echelons?

* There will never be a guarantee.

For me it would depend on how good we were and if we had youngsters developing. Over the years we packed the coliseum and rose garden because of the hope in the playoffs, and we did experience great success a few times.
I dont mind so much this year because of the injuries to Dame & CJ, just wouldn't want to become tankers consistently as the way to build and hopefully get better.
Phoenix waited 10 years to get back in the offs and my brother that lives there and attends games said that was not fun. Yep, they are having fun now though.
If the organization decides to go 'Process for 5 years" and they went public for it like Philly did, I would still be a fan.

 

[BBert]

So why not then tank in 2023 if you are wanting to collect picks. I'm convinced there are fans that get more excited about tanking for the nugget than wanting to advance through the playoffs. Id rather be the sixth seed in the playoffs than have the 6th pick.

Normally, the Blazers need those draft picks. Trading future picks for second level players has tended to not work out very well. (Being on the other end of that equation is what got us Dame.)

But next season we've got Dame, Nurk, Simons, and a handful of good established players. We already have enough project players. We need someone who might put us over the top within the next three years more than a couple more projects.

Another difference is rather than trading future unknowns, if we trade one or both of these picks it will be trading a known for a known. Unless we get lucky in the lotto, I think we should definitely try to trade these picks for an established player who might get us over the hump.

 

[oldmangrouch]

For me it would depend on how good we were and if we had youngsters developing. Over the years we packed the coliseum and rose garden because of the hope in the playoffs, and we did experience great success a few times.
I dont mind so much this year because of the injuries to Dame & CJ, just wouldn't want to become tankers consistently as the way to build and hopefully get better.
Phoenix waited 10 years to get back in the offs and my brother that lives there and attends games said that was not fun. Yep, they are having fun now though.
If the organization decides to go 'Process for 5 years" and they went public for it like Philly did, I would still be a fan.

GSW is another team that spent years wandering in the wilderness before figuring it out and jumping into the league elite. Was the common thread undue patience with a weak front office? Weak ownership?

 

[BBert]

For me at 11 I would take Williams, 7'1" -7'6" span and just a beast around the hoop. He will be the best center taken in the draft, imo.

We definitely need a center.

 

[e_blazer]

We definitely need a center.

As we all know, @Mediocre Man has his own rule about drafting centers. After the Oden, Zach Collins and Meyers Leonard picks, my own rule is the Blazers should NEVER draft a center, no matter what color, nationality, or apparent glowing physicals may tell you. This franchise is cursed at the 5 spot. I'll take Nurk and use the pick on the best 3 or 4 available.

 

[wizenheimer]

GSW is another team that spent years wandering in the wilderness before figuring it out and jumping into the league elite. Was the common thread undue patience with a weak front office? Weak ownership?

not sure, but the key for the Warriors vs the Blazers is that they didn't spend 8 seasons trying to build around Curry/Ellis like Portland did with Dame/CJ. They recognized the reality and only invested 2 seasons in the failed experiment

 

[Mediocre Man]

As we all know, @Mediocre Man has his own rule about drafting centers. After the Oden, Zach Collins and Meyers Leonard picks, my own rule is the Blazers should NEVER draft a center, no matter what color, nationality, or apparent glowing physicals may tell you. This franchise is cursed at the 5 spot. I'll take Nurk and use the pick on the best 3 or 4 available.

6’ 9” - 6’ 10” athletic freak with a 7’ 2” wingspan all day long

 

[illmatic99]

Not sure if everyone realizes this, but as a refresher...

- Each team is assigned 4 number (1-14) combinations based on where they are slotted before the lottery and their corresponding odds based on 1001 total combinations.
- Only the top 4 picks are actually selected in the lottery, the rest of the picks are based on their record in reverse order.
- If a team jumps, it will only be to the top 4. But a team can also fall back spots in case a team behind them jumps to top 4.
- Based on our current standing, the best probabilities for us are dropping to either 7 or 8.

Here is how the current odds stand:



Here is what it looked like last year:

 

[illmatic99]

were any of you here in person? Is that a younger @THE HCP at 2:15?

I was working at my internship at the time but was going absolutely nuts while listening on radio. Wonder if the team will host something like this again.

(yes, that's Fred Jones and Ime Udoka also present at the event).

 

[Natebishop3]

were any of you here in person? Is that a younger @THE HCP at 2:15?

I was in working at my internship at the time but was going absolutely nuts while listening on radio. Wonder if the team will host something like this again.

(yes, that's Fred Jones and Ime Udoka also present at the event).

Yup that's HCP.

 

[Natebishop3]

Not sure if everyone realizes this, but as a refresher...

- Each team is assigned 4 number (1-14) combinations based on where they are slotted before the lottery and their corresponding odds based on 1001 total combinations.
- Only the top 4 picks are actually selected in the lottery, the rest of the picks are based on their record in reverse order.
- If a team jumps, it will only be to the top 4. But a team can also fall back spots in case a team behind them jumps to top 4.
- Based on our current standing, the best probabilities for us are dropping to either 7 or 8.

Here is how the current odds stand:

View attachment 47119

Here is what it looked like last year:

How annoying will it be if the Lakers/Pelicans jump into the top 4 and their pick doesn't convey? I will personally be furious.

 

[illmatic99]

How annoying will it be if the Lakers/Pelicans jump into the top 4 and their pick doesn't convey? I will personally be furious.

Well, i'm really unbothered about the Lakers pick conveying to NO. If LA somehow lands in the top four (~26% chance it does), good for the Pels.

I'm more concerned about the Pels pick, of which they only will have about a 9.4% chance of retaining if they don't get through the PIT.

 

[Natebishop3]

Well, i'm really unbothered about the Lakers pick conveying to NO. If LA somehow lands in the top four (~26% chance it does), good for the Pels.

I'm more concerned about the Pels pick, of which they only will have about a 9.4% chance of retaining if they don't get through the PIT.

Mostly it will be annoying because if the Lakers jump us, we probably won't be in the top 4 either. It will push us down.

 

[illmatic99]

Mostly it will be annoying because if the Lakers jump us, we probably won't be in the top 4 either. It will push us down.

The selections are independent of each other. We have one less pick that is possible but our combinations/probabilities won't change. Watch the video I posted above if you need more clarity.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Watch, Lakers will get the #1 pick.

Them not making the playoffs will have a "Silver" lining.

 

[Natebishop3]

The selections are independent of each other. We have one less pick that is possible but our combinations/probabilities won't change. Watch the video I posted above if you need more clarity.

It feels like we're not talking about the same thing.

I'm saying I would be annoyed if the Lakers pick go into the top 4, thus jumping us and pushing us down lower than 6th.

And I would be even more annoyed if this was paired with us not getting the Pels pick because they make it through the play-in tourney.