Lottery pick: #6, 2nd Rnd Picks: #36, and #57

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Natebishop3 said:
It feels like we're not talking about the same thing.

I'm saying I would be annoyed if the Lakers pick go into the top 4, thus jumping us and pushing us down lower than 6th.
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oh I see what you're talking about. If LA jumps up, and we don't, we have more of a chance to drop below 6. Gotcha.

But our chances of getting one of the other top 4 picks won't get affected if LA climbs up.

(and sidebar), i'm pretty sure the combo will belong to "NOP" officially.
 
illmatic99 said:
oh I see what you're talking about. If LA jumps up, and we don't, we have more of a chance to drop below 6. Gotcha.

But our chances of getting one of the other top 4 picks won't get affected if LA climbs up.

(and sidebar), i'm pretty sure the combo will belong to "NOP" officially.
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Yeah, sorry I'm not even talking about odds. More like a scenario that's going to sting really bad.
 
illmatic99 said:
were any of you here in person? Is that a younger @THE HCP at 2:15?

I was working at my internship at the time but was going absolutely nuts while listening on radio. Wonder if the team will host something like this again.

(yes, that's Fred Jones and Ime Udoka also present at the event).

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I think it’s a young BlazerWookie right before HCP too
 
illmatic99 said:
Not sure if everyone realizes this, but as a refresher...

- Each team is assigned 4 number (1-14) combinations based on where they are slotted before the lottery and their corresponding odds based on 1001 total combinations.
- Only the top 4 picks are actually selected in the lottery, the rest of the picks are based on their record in reverse order.
- If a team jumps, it will only be to the top 4. But a team can also fall back spots in case a team behind them jumps to top 4.
- Based on our current standing, the best probabilities for us are dropping to either 7 or 8.

Here is how the current odds stand:

View attachment 47119

Here is what it looked like last year:
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Blazer fan starts to feel a little bit of hope.
Looks at actual lotto odds.
Aaaaand it's gone.
 
e_blazer said:
As we all know, @Mediocre Man has his own rule about drafting centers. After the Oden, Zach Collins and Meyers Leonard picks, my own rule is the Blazers should NEVER draft a center, no matter what color, nationality, or apparent glowing physicals may tell you. This franchise is cursed at the 5 spot. I'll take Nurk and use the pick on the best 3 or 4 available.
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I feel like this year, there are so many C prospects that we can still get one. CBS sports has Koloko ranked 34, Kessler ranked 37, Nzosa ranked 44, and Robinson ranked 49. I’d be happy with any of those guys with our 2nd, whoever falls to us.

I’d be ecstatic if we could draft Nzosa at #37, sign Jalen Smith with the MLE, and re-sign Nurk to a decent contract.

Nurkic (27mpg)/Smith (21mpg)/Nzosa

Your C rotation would potentially be set for the next handful of years. It would be exciting to see how Nzosa develops under Billups.
 
illmatic99 said:
at 37.2% chance at landing top 4 is quite decent. It's really too bad that Indiana tanked harder than us the last 15 games.
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It's really too bad we didn't start the tank a week before the all star break but I like us having a better than one in three chance to move up in the draft. It's exciting. Seeing what we'll do if we end up with a mid and late lotto pick would be exciting too. The Pelicans pick not conveying either because they make the playoffs or get really lucky in the lotto is not exciting, it's fucking annoying.

I am predicting that the Spurs get into the playoffs and we end up holding the first and tenth picks on May 17th. Five weeks from tomorrow we'll know our draft position.
 
blazerkor said:
I am predicting that the Spurs get into the playoffs and we end up holding the first and tenth picks on May 17th. Five weeks from tomorrow we'll know our draft position.
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We can't get 10. That NO pick can only be 11, 12, 13 and maybe 14 if it conveys.

EDIT: NVM, I see what you mean! If Spurs beat NO and make the playoffs, NO would climb a spot. Man, I'm off today. Took sleep meds last night and they're clearly still having their effects on me.
 
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DO NOT trade either lotto picks! I’m tired of trading away a 1st for bench guys and 2 1sts for good starters. If you are guaranteed two lotto picks this year, you just take the best two guys at where we’re picking. Trade the MEM 2nd to unprotect our 2023 pick if we need to trade future 1sts, but with Dame committed, we aren’t just guaranteed to have a lotto pick any year. Young talent, cheap contracts. If you really wanted to help Dame and take advantage of the situation given, capitalizing on the value is going to be in drafting someone, not trading it for a Jeremi Grant kind of guy.

The NBA is won with wings now—just take the best wing talents available and work from there. I like Sharpe at #6 and either Sochan or Eason at #11.

____/Little/Sharpe
____/(Sochan or Eason)/Watford/Brown III

That is a great young core at forward. And it probably is likely the any of those guys could suddenly be good enough to start as soon as next year. So really, you still have the TPE, Bledsoe’s contract, and our 2025/2027 1sts available to bring in a star SF or PF if one became available. And unless GSW starts trading away their young guys, OPJ might be a gettable guy to start at either forward position for a year—and we can let the other forward come from within our young core.
 
illmatic99 said:
We can't get 10. That NO pick can only be 11, 12, 13 and maybe 14 if it conveys.
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Nope, it's currently eleventh so if the Spurs make the playoffs the Pelicans will have the tenth worst record of the lotto teams and if they don't move up or get bumped back in the lottery, their pick (which will convey to us) will be tenth.
 
blazerkor said:
Nope, it's currently eleventh so if the Spurs make the playoffs the Pelicans will have the tenth worst record of the lotto teams and if they don't move up or get bumped back in the lottery, their pick will be tenth.
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Yup, i had edited my original response. Lo siento.
 
illmatic99 said:
We can't get 10. That NO pick can only be 11, 12, 13 and maybe 14 if it conveys.

EDIT: NVM, I see what you mean! If Spurs beat NO and make the playoffs, NO would climb a spot. Man, I'm off today. Took sleep meds last night and they're clearly still having their effects on me.
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It's not the likeliest of scenarios but one I can definitely root for. At this time of year between the play ins and lotto, sussing out all of the possibilities is a bit cumbersome. We'll solidly know more Friday night. Then we just have to wait until May 17th after that no more guessing, hoping and projecting all of the different permutations of what picks we will or won't have.
 
Man, it’s been a looong time since we’ve looked forward to the lottery to see where we wind up.
 
BankTeller said:
DO NOT trade either lotto picks! I’m tired of trading away a 1st for bench guys and 2 1sts for good starters. If you are guaranteed two lotto picks this year, you just take the best two guys at where we’re picking. Trade the MEM 2nd to unprotect our 2023 pick if we need to trade future 1sts, but with Dame committed, we aren’t just guaranteed to have a lotto pick any year. Young talent, cheap contracts. If you really wanted to help Dame and take advantage of the situation given, capitalizing on the value is going to be in drafting someone, not trading it for a Jeremi Grant kind of guy.

The NBA is won with wings now—just take the best wing talents available and work from there. I like Sharpe at #6 and either Sochan or Eason at #11.

____/Little/Sharpe
____/(Sochan or Eason)/Watford/Brown III

That is a great young core at forward. And it probably is likely the any of those guys could suddenly be good enough to start as soon as next year. So really, you still have the TPE, Bledsoe’s contract, and our 2025/2027 1sts available to bring in a star SF or PF if one became available. And unless GSW starts trading away their young guys, OPJ might be a gettable guy to start at either forward position for a year—and we can let the other forward come from within our young core.
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Damn, you might have chosen the two biggest upside guys in the draft in Sharpe and Sochan but also the two guys taken in the lotto who might be the most unlikely to start for a playoff team next season. If we're building a contender around Dame as soon as possible and you can turn Sochan or Eason into Grant... I think you do it. People are sleeping on Grant because he proved he's not a first option but he's never been a second option and has proven that he can be a great third option. Grant is better than Larry or RoCo on both ends of the court. Just look at the dude's numbers, especially when he was playing a role closer to what he'd be playing here.

I am with you on shopping our future firsts and if something materializes trading a future second or the Memphis second and/or sending cash to the Bulls to guarantee that pick. I think that's a must. Hell you could make a deal that wouldn't complete until the new league year begins and include our 2029 first as well... but isn't this idea (that I think is spectacular) completely contradictory to the logic you're using in the rest of your post?
 
PDXFonz said:
Haha I did the same thing on tankathon and almost posted it.

Would be nice! Certainly possible…

Weren’t we in the 7-9 spot when we won the lottery and took oden?
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It's not JUST us getting the #1 pick. It's who would be #2 and #3. It would give us options....
 
illmatic99 said:
were any of you here in person? Is that a younger @THE HCP at 2:15?

I was working at my internship at the time but was going absolutely nuts while listening on radio. Wonder if the team will host something like this again.

(yes, that's Fred Jones and Ime Udoka also present at the event).

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I wasn’t, but a guy in this thread was. Not going to out him, but I recently texted him this video! Good thoughts.
 
oldmangrouch said:
Just out of curiosity, if Dame was younger would you be willing to take a step back for, say, 2 years in exchange for a chance* to break into the league's upper echelons?

* There will never be a guarantee.
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wizenheimer said:
not sure, but the key for the Warriors vs the Blazers is that they didn't spend 8 seasons trying to build around Curry/Ellis like Portland did with Dame/CJ. They recognized the reality and only invested 2 seasons in the failed experiment
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Did we have Klay Thompson waiting in the wings the last 8 seasons? No we haven't. So it doesn't compare.
 
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