Merged: The Draft Thread For Stuff About The Draft Including Thoughts About The Draft

[Reep]

If we're in the market for a third guard, I think we go after Donovan Mitchell in that Marcus Smart mold. We even brought him in for a workout fwiw.

I'm not super high on Mitchell for the same reasons, but can understand that more based on his defense.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Lots of people are sleeping on Dennis Smith. He reminds me a lot of Baron Davis.

I like him too. Just don't think he is 1st tier

 

[JDC]

I'm not super high on Mitchell for the same reasons, but can understand that more based on his defense.

He's projects to be a better shooter than Marcus with less pg skills--although I think he has enough handle+feel to be a secondary handler.

He's going to be off the board though and I don't think he's a guy Neil is going to trade up for despite needing a versatile point of attack D + shooting skillset on this team.

 

[Hobbesarable]

He's projects to be a better shooter than Marcus with less pg skills--although I think he has enough handle+feel to be a secondary handler.

He's going to be off the board though and I don't think he's a guy Neil is going to trade up for despite needing a versatile point of attack D + shooting skillset on this team.

And he has an incredible 6'10" wingspan.

 

[illmatic99]

I like him too. Just don't think he is 1st tier

Here's what Chad Ford had to say about tiers:

Tier 1 (Potential superstars)

Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington
Last draft we had just one player in this category: Ben Simmons. The year before that, Karl-Anthony Towns was the only player here.

This category is usually reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars or franchise players. Only six other players since we started this column in 2009 -- Blake Griffin, John Wall, Anthony Davis, Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker -- have been ranked in this slot.

Fultz was unanimously nominated for Tier 1 by the NBA scouts and executives I polled for this piece. Ball was more polarizing for sure, but he still got a majority of the votes for Tier 1.
Three other players -- Josh Jackson, De'Aaron Fox and Jayson Tatum -- received votes for Tier 1.

Tier 2 (All-Star potential)
De'Aaron Fox, PG, Fr., Kentucky
Jonathan Isaac, F, Fr., Florida State
Josh Jackson, G/F, Fr., Kansas
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Fr., Arizona
Malik Monk, G, Fr., Kentucky
Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
Dennis Smith, PG, Fr., North Carolina State
Jayson Tatum, F, Fr., Duke

This is the largest Tier 2 we've ever had. This tier is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player in Tier 2 has a weakness that some teams believe will keep him from being a superstar.
In Fox and Jackson's case, it's the lack of a consistent jumper. Isaac needs to add strength and find a position. Markkanen and Monk are too one-dimensional right now. Smith and Tatum might be too selfish with the ball. Ntilikina isn't an elite athlete.

Fox, Jackson and Tatum all received only Tier 1 and Tier 2 votes. Isaac, Monk and Smith all were unanimous in Tier 2. Markkanen and Ntilikina had some Tier 3 votes, but the majority were Tier 2. Zach Collins received a lot of votes in Tier 2, but just barely missed the cut.
Having 10 players in the first two tiers is extraordinary for a draft class.

Tier 3 (NBA starters)
OG Anunoby, F, So., Indiana
Zach Collins, F/C, Fr., Gonzaga
Harry Giles, PF, Fr., Duke
Luke Kennard, G, So., Duke
Donovan Mitchell, G, So., Louisville

This is a solid Tier 3, but with the exception of Collins, most teams see a significant drop-off here. This tier is usually reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers.
Having 15 players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft. The closest we got was in 2014 when we had 12 players in the top three tiers. Of this group, Collins was the only player not to receive Tier 4 votes, so the consensus breaks down at this point.

The biggest issue for scouts was ranking Anunoby and Giles. Both have had significant knee injuries. Giles is actually healed and ready to play, but teams are worried because he has had two major knee surgeries and didn't look nearly as explosive at Duke last season. Anunoby hurt his knee in January and could miss his rookie season.
Based on sheer talent, virtually every scout and front office executive had Giles as either a Tier 1 or Tier 2 prospect. And all but one had Anunoby as a Tier 2 guy. If they get healthy, they're steals in Tier 3. But their previous injuries put a cloud over their draft stock.

Tier 4 (Starters, high-level rotation players)
Jarrett Allen, C, Fr., Texas
Ike Anigbogu, C, Fr., UCLA
John Collins, PF, So., Wake Forest
Justin Patton, C, Fr., Creighton

This is a smaller Tier 4 group than usual.
Teams are really all over the place on these guys. John Collins received a lot of votes for Tier 3 (and none in Tier 5), but the majority of teams had these players ranked in Tier 4.

All three of the others -- Allen, Anigbogu and Patton -- barely made the cut into Tier 4, with just over 50 percent voting them in Tier 4 and the rest in Tier 5. None of them received Tier 3 votes.

Tier 5 (Rotation players)
Edrice Adebayo, PF, Fr., Kentucky
Tony Bradley, C, Fr., North Carolina
Terrance Ferguson, SG, Australia
Frank Jackson, G, Fr., Duke
Justin Jackson, SF, Jr., North Carolina
TJ Leaf, PF, Fr., UCLA
Anzejs Pasecniks, C, Latvia
Ivan Rabb, PF, So., Cal
Caleb Swanigan, PF, So., Purdue
D.J. Wilson, PF, Jr., Michigan

This next group is a bit small for a Tier 5, but it's small in part because of how big the top three tiers are. This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players who are unlikely to start for good teams but could become solid role players off the bench.

In this draft, that's roughly picks Nos. 20-30. A few players in this tier received Tier 4 votes. They included Jackson, Leaf and Pasecniks. And a couple of players on this list received Tier 6 votes, including Rabb and Swanigan.

Tier 6 (potential first-rounders)
Jordan Bell, PF, Jr., Oregon
Jonah Bolden, SF, Australia
Thomas Bryant, F/C, So. Indiana
Jawun Evans, PG, So., Oklahoma State
Josh Hart, SG, Sr., Villanova
Isaiah Hartenstein, PF, Germany
Tyler Lydon, SF, So., Syracuse
Semi Ojeleye, F, Jr., SMU
Alec Peters, F, Sr., Valpariso
Monte Morris, PG, Sr., Iowa State
Devin Robinson, SF, Jr., Florida
Derrick White, PG, Jr., Colorao
This tier has the players that at least one team told me they had ranked in their top 30. A few -- Bell, Evans, Hartenstein, Lydon and Ojeleye -- got Tier 5 votes. The rest are likely second-round picks.
Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect, but the teams that run it have found that it improves their performance. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared to traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool of gauging which players a team should draft.

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...lonzo-ball-more-freshmen-tiers-2017-nba-draft

 

[Pinwheel1]

You see him as the third guard in a rotation? If he is BPA then okay, but I really would prefer to use our high picks on anything other than another short guard.

I was thinking about this yesterday. I think this could very well be the scenario. Our 15th pick could end up being someone who for whatever reason slips. And Neil takes him regardless of need. Then uses 20 and 26 for a position of need.

I mean realistically we could use an upgrade at every position coming off the bench. Or we could use the pick as trade bait.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Here's what Chad Ford had to say about tiers:


http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...lonzo-ball-more-freshmen-tiers-2017-nba-draft

Ford is an idiot. I am sad my tiers are close to his.

 

[illmatic99]

Ford is an idiot. I am sad my tiers are close to his.

Well those tiers are an aggregate of the NBA scouts and execs he polled, so you should take solace in that.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Well those tiers are an aggregate of the NBA scouts and execs he polled, so you should take solace in that.

I guess so

 

[Pinwheel1]

From the Ford article....."Anunoby hurt his knee in January and could miss his rookie season."

Ok now I see why he slipped on the mocks. I missed the discussion on this.

 

[JDC]

And he has an incredible 6'10" wingspan.

Yup. His length+strength+quick feet give him the opportunity to guard 1's and 2's pretty effectively.

I like him the most on a team with a lead handler at the 2 or 3. Milwaukee and Philly are my 2 favorite landing spots for him. Both would need to do some maneuvering to get him though.

 

[JDC]

From the Ford article....."Anunoby hurt his knee in January and could miss his rookie season."

Ok now I see why he slipped on the mocks. I missed the discussion on this.

It's not only the only reason, but it sure doesn't help.

He has a great tools+motor+production combo defensively, but I worry about his ability to guard skilled+athletic scorers (I think he's easily fooled by craft) and he's very spacey off the ball at this point. To put it simply, I don't trust him to make the "small decisions" defensively.

He also has a low IQ, awkward, clumsy vibe to him that I think certain scouts won't be able to get over.

 

[illmatic99]

It's not only the only reason, but it sure doesn't help.

He has a great tools+motor+production combo defensively, but I worry about his ability to guard skilled+athletic scorers (I think he's easily fooled by craft) and he's very spacey off the ball at this point. To put it simply, I don't trust him to make the "small decisions" defensively.

He also has a low IQ, awkward, clumsy vibe to him that I think certain scouts won't be able to get over.

Sounds like another physical freak from Indiana we already have on our roster.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Sounds like another physical freak from Indiana we already have on our roster.

Just like we already had two great SG's on our roster in 1984, or Telfair on our roster when Chris Paul was drafted

 

[dviss1]

If we're in the market for a third guard, I think we go after Donovan Mitchell in that Marcus Smart mold. We even brought him in for a workout fwiw.

Maybe if we get rid of Crabbe.... Dare to dream...

 

[BonesJones]

If I get the Blazers in Rip City Drives Live Mock Draft I will pick Bolden 26th

 

[Eastoff]

Ford is an idiot. I am sad my tiers are close to his.

Hahahahaha

 

[Reep]

If Ford is accurate, looks like we should take Giles at 15. If he was explosive in his workouts then I'm good with that.

 

[BonesJones]

Maybe if we get rid of Crabbe.... Dare to dream...

I would be 100% in favor of trying to trade #15, #26, and Crabbe up to #10 (SAC), #11 (CHA), or #12 (DET) to take on of Mitchell or Zach Collins.

I think that Mitchell could become an extremely dynamic offensive player if he was tutored by McCollum and Lillard.

After being completely down on Mitchell a couple months ago, he is now the #1 realistic option for me. Would make Crabbe or Turner expendable, saving us tons of money, and has Avery Bradley type potential.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Well those tiers are an aggregate of the NBA scouts and execs he polled, so you should take solace in that.

That's a good point; and this article should be very useful for GM's deciding where they need to target guys to make sure they get them.

 

[BonesJones]

 

[TBpup]

Collins, Leaf and Evans? Yuck!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

 

[BonesJones]

Collins, Leaf and Evans? Yuck!

No mock draft has us taking Collins at 15, its just where his average falls.

 

[Scalma]

I think pasecniks goes somewhere in the top 20.

 

[THE HCP]

Isn't DraftExpress pretty respected. Didn't see them on the above list.

 

[handiman]

Isn't DraftExpress pretty respected. Didn't see them on the above list.

Second red column, middle of the chart.

 

[Scalma]

So here's a question; do trades around this time of year involving draft picks always happen on draft day or do they ever happen a couple days before?

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

So here's a question; do trades around this time of year involving draft picks always happen on draft day or do they ever happen a couple days before?

I could be wrong, but I thought there was basically some sort of moratorium leading up to the draft, where they're basically put out there as likely to happen, but not announced until draft day or until July 1 (and don't become official until the FA period officially begins).

Seems like even on draft day, they announce deals but say the can't become official until so and so happens.

 

[JDC]

So here's a question; do trades around this time of year involving draft picks always happen on draft day or do they ever happen a couple days before?

Did I quick wiki search and looks like 1-2 trades before the draft is typical. Only a couple significant ones in the last 6-7 years though and zero involving top 10 picks.