Merged: The Draft Thread For Stuff About The Draft Including Thoughts About The Draft

[bodyman5000 and 1]

You go Zohan

 

[Scalma]

I live in Israel, it would require a plane ticket

Is English your first language? Would explain a lot.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Maybe someone discussed this early, but I was curious about Kevin Pelton's Insider draft value chart. According to an abstract some guy grabbed off there, the 15 pick is valued at 55, the 20th at 33 and the 26th at 18, for a total of 106. That would be equal to the value of the 10th pick. I have no idea how he reached the values and if they would have any relevance to GM's doing the trading. The two higher picks would supposedly be able to get an 11 or 12.
1) 500
2) 300
3) 200
4) 190
5) 180
6) 170
7) 160
8) 150
9) 125
10) 100
11) 90
12) 80
13) 70
14) 60
15) 55
16) 50
17) 45
18) 40
19) 35
20) 33
21) 30
22) 27
23) 25
24) 22
25) 20
26) 18
27) 16
28) 14
29) 12
30) 10

 

[Hobbesarable]

Maybe someone discussed this early, but I was curious about Kevin Pelton's Insider draft value chart. According to an abstract some guy grabbed off there, the 15 pick is valued at 55, the 20th at 33 and the 26th at 18, for a total of 106. That would be equal to the value of the 10th pick. I have no idea how he reached the values and if they would have any relevance to GM's doing the trading. The two higher picks would supposedly be able to get an 11 or 12.
1) 500
2) 300
3) 200
4) 190
5) 180
6) 170
7) 160
8) 150
9) 125
10) 100
11) 90
12) 80
13) 70
14) 60
15) 55
16) 50
17) 45
18) 40
19) 35
20) 33
21) 30
22) 27
23) 25
24) 22
25) 20
26) 18
27) 16
28) 14
29) 12
30) 10

Jimmy Johnson, former NFL coach of the Cowboys and Dolphins, devised a Draft Pick Trade Value Chart in the early 90's. Apparently Pelton used that as a guideline when putting together an NBA draft trade chart.

Here's an NBA draft trade chart from Fansided.com

And here's an interesting article from 82games.com Assessing the Relative Value of Draft Position in the NBA Draft

 

[Blazer4ever]

Is English your first language? Would explain a lot.

Hebrew is my language, learned English from talking to you guys (and from movies, songs, TV shows...)

 

[Boob-No-More]

Jimmy Johnson, former NFL coach of the Cowboys and Dolphins, devised a Draft Pick Trade Value Chart in the early 90's. Apparently Pelton used that as a guideline when putting together an NBA draft trade chart.

Here's an NBA draft trade chart from Fansided.com

Quick, somebody send Vlade Divacs that link!!! It shows that the 15, 20 and 26th picks have a combined value of 6.34, which is more than enough to land the 5th pick (trade value 5.94) in a trade. With David Kahn no longer sabotaging MIN and Billy King no longer destroying BRK, Vlade is the only GM dumb enough to base trade value on an article from Fansided. And, he just happens to own the 5th pick in the draft.

BNM

 

[Blazinaway]

I frankly am at least "starting" to think a guy like Semi Ojeleye with his 240 lb stud frame, elite quickness/agility, and jumping ability might be a better answer than a guy like Leaf or a few others at PF. I am warming up to Semi again as his 42% 3 pt college shooting could allow him to play some SG, SF, and stretch 4 and guard all positions. I mean Leafs wingspan is 6"11, Semi's is 6'10 and he can jump a lot higher (tied for 5th at combine) than Leaf and many others and has more strength and quickness. In the new NBA "multi-taskers" like Semi and Jordan Bell are important components to have on a team, and Semi has shown he can shoot. Don't forget this guy had to sit out almost two yrs of playing "team ball" and had a really nice first season back this last yr. I can't see him having a problem with his strength and quickness guarding most 4's, but I sure can see them having a problem guarding him, and he can play and guard SF's and SGs as well. In the new NBA this kind of versatility with shooting ability is IMO important to have from a few guys at least.

 

[Reep]

I frankly am at least "starting" to think a guy like Semi Ojeleye with his 240 lb stud frame, elite quickness/agility, and jumping ability might be a better answer than a guy like Leaf or a few other at PF. I am warming up to Semi again as his 42% 3 pt college shooting could allow him to play some SG, SF, and stretch 4 and guard all positions. I mean Leafs wingspan is 6"11, Semi's is 6'10 and he can jump a lot higher (tied for 5th at combine) than Leaf and many others and has more strength and quickness. In the new NBA "multi-taskers" like Semi and Jordan Bell are important components to have on a team, and Semi has shown he can shoot. Don't forget this guy has to sit ut almost two trs of playing "team ball" and has a really nice first season back this last yr

Leaf's standing reach is 8'11" (not long) and Semi's is much worse at 8'6". Long arms don't help as much when you can't get them up in the air. If Semi were a tremendous rebounder (Barkley) then maybe, but I think he would be a huge defensive liability.

 

[Blazinaway]

Leaf's standing reach is 8'11" (not long) and Semi's is much worse at 8'6". Long arms don't help as much when you can't get them up in the air. If Semi were a tremendous rebounder (Barkley) then maybe, but I think he would be a huge defensive liability.

yet if you add his jump to his standing reach who has the more effective height? I know that is not always the case but sometimes it is, and a decent wingspan combined with elite quickness/agility/vertical can cause issues for other teams as well. Plus very few will be able to "body" or move his 241 lb frame and he may be the one more often doing the "moving". The guy has skills and at 26 could be a helluva pick, and he has IMO a lot of room to improve

Jae Crowder is his potential NBA comparison IMO, similar size (Semi a bit taller), similar wingspan, Semis standing reach is 2.5 inches more and his vertical is almost 5 inches more on each jump test.

 

[BonesJones]

Why? They might have the opportunity to pick up one of Monk, Isaac and Dennis Smith at 8. At least one of them will be available with that pick and it's fairly likely that it's going to be Smith who has a much higher potential than Jackson.

They could trade Carmelo to get a pick in the 15-20 range IMO. Given Chicago's policy of picking up older players (Rondo, Wade) they could probably acquire their #16 pick for Carmelo + 2nd rounder.

Nobody will trade a mid-1st for Carmelo. I think they trade 8 down if they can get rid of Noah and get a young piece or two.

 

[Boob-No-More]

yet if you add his jump to his standing reach who has the more effective height? I know that is not always the case but sometimes it is, and a decent wingspan combined with elite quickness/agility/vertical can cause issues for other teams as well. Plus very few will be able to "body" or move his 241 lb frame and he may be the one more often doing the "moving". The guy has skills and at 26 could be a helluva pick, and he has IMO a lot of room to improve

Ojeleye would be a huge reach at 26. You shouldn't really be comparing him to Leaf, as Leaf will most likely be gone by 26. You should really be comparing him to guys like Harry Giles, Jordan Bell, Bam Adebayo, Derrick White, Hamidou Diallo, and Jonathan Motley, who will be more likely to be available at 26.

Of course, who we take at 15 and 20 will play a part in who we take at 26. We need help at power forward and back up center as well as a solid wing with good length that can defend, either at SF or SG. If we go big early, we may go for a SF/SG at 26, or vise versa...

BNM

 

[BonesJones]

It's interesting how different some of the Mock Drafts are in relation to whom the Blazers select. Anigbodu is #15 in Draft Express and #35 at NBADraft.net. For years, NBADraft.net was the more accurate of the two but that has change in the last couple of years.

Draft Express............NBADraft.net
#15 Anigbogu.............TJ Leaf. (Anigbogu #35 at NBA Draft and Leaf #23 at Draft Express)
#20 Rabb..................Diallo (Rabb #22 at NBA Draft and Diallo #35 at Draft Express)
#26 Landon...............Dwayne Bacon (Landon #23 on NBA Draft and Bacon #55 at Draft Express)

Those tend to get more in sync the closer we get to the Draft but for now, there is quite a gap.

NBADraft is so far off. Anigbogu and Anunoby going in the 2nd, Kyle Kuzma going 16th... Rediculous.

 

[Blazinaway]

Ojeleye would be a huge reach at 26. You shouldn't really be comparing him to Leaf, as Leaf will most likely be gone by 26. You should really be comparing him to guys like Harry Giles, Jordan Bell, Bam Adebayo, Derrick White, Hamidou Diallo, and Jonathan Motley, who will be more likely to be available at 26.

Of course, who we take at 15 and 20 will play a part in who we take at 26. We need help at power forward and back up center as well as a solid wing with good length that can defend, either at SF or SG. If we go big early, we may go for a SF/SG at 26, or vise versa...

BNM

I don't think he's a "huge reach" at 26 at all, I think he could be a steal, the guy has a Swiss army knife set of skills, its where the new NBA is going, I think he'd be a very good "small ball" lineup player

 

[Reep]

yet if you add his jump to his standing reach who has the more effective height? I know that is not always the case but sometimes it is, and a decent wingspan combined with elite quickness/agility/vertical can cause issues for other teams as well. Plus very few will be able to "body" or move his 241 lb frame and he may be the one more often doing the "moving". The guy has skills and at 26 could be a helluva pick, and he has IMO a lot of room to improve

Jae Crowder is his potential NBA comparison IMO, similar size (Semi a bit taller), similar wingspan, Semis standing reach is 2.5 inches more and his vertical is almost 5 inches more on each jump test.

And you want to rely on a guy hitting his max jump height on every defensive play, rather than a guy who can just stand and do the same thing? I think I get your point, but aside from catching a guy on the break or possibly a weak side block, most post defense is played with very little vertical.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

I don't think he's a "huge reach" at 26 at all, I think he could be a steal, the guy has a Swiss army knife set of skills, its where the new NBA is going, I think he'd be a very good "small ball" lineup player

He has a bit of Royce White to his game without the off court craziness

 

[Blazinaway]

And you want to rely on a guy hitting his max jump height on every defensive play, rather than a guy who can just stand and do the same thing? I think I get your point, but aside from catching a guy on the break or possibly a weak side block, most post defense is played with very little vertical.[/QUOT by PF or SF'sE]


and how many blocks are made per game? is denying position and keeping a guy in front of you as important or more important than standing upright while easy shots go in because a guy has gotten much better position because of strength? IMO no one factor is paramount, its a mix and standing reach can be over rated as well.

 

[BonesJones]

 

[Sarni]

Nobody will trade a mid-1st for Carmelo. I think they trade 8 down if they can get rid of Noah and get a young piece or two.

Nope. With no. 8 they might get Smith or Isaac. They are worth more than not having Noah is worth.

 

[Sarni]

NBADraft is so far off. Anigbogu and Anunoby going in the 2nd, Kyle Kuzma going 16th... Rediculous.

Also what I have been thinking. Their prediction seems all over the place. Anunoby at 40 is ridiculous, he might not even last until our #15 and it won't be even slightly surprising.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Jimmy Johnson, former NFL coach of the Cowboys and Dolphins, devised a Draft Pick Trade Value Chart in the early 90's. Apparently Pelton used that as a guideline when putting together an NBA draft trade chart.

Here's an NBA draft trade chart from Fansided.com

And here's an interesting article from 82games.com Assessing the Relative Value of Draft Position in the NBA Draft

The Pelton one seems more realistic than Fansided, which would make our three picks worth a fourth or fifth pick.

 

[BonesJones]

Nope. With no. 8 they might get Smith or Isaac. They are worth more than not having Noah is worth.

15, 26, Harkless, and Crabbe for 8, Noah, and O'Quinn.

I think they'd consider.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

15, 26, Harkless, and Crabbe for 8, Noah, and O'Quinn.

I think they'd consider.

Honestly? That's a lot to give up to essentially cut 5-6 mil in salary and move 7 spots

 

[Sarni]

Honestly? That's a lot to give up to essentially cut 5-6 mil in salary and move 7 spots

If that 8 can be turned into Jonathan Isaac, it's fine. O'Quinn is basically similar level to Harkless albeit in different position. Noah is trash these days.

Thing is, Isaac will likely be taken already when pick no. 8 comes and we will be left with Monk or Smith left as the best player available and it won't be worth it as we should be addressing different areas. So in the end we will be left without a small forward other than Turner.

Not that they would do the above trade. It would make them slightly better now but long term they need to find second piece to lead the team with Porzingis. Smith, Monk, Isaac or Ntilikina could be that.

 

[BonesJones]

Honestly? That's a lot to give up to essentially cut 5-6 mil in salary and move 7 spots

Two young players and two draft picks in a deep draft to get rid of a horrible contract of an injured, aging Noah and a piece that's not a part of their future in O'Quinn to move down 7 spots? Yeah, they'd consider.

There's rumors they'll try to overpay Redick a lot of cash to get him.

Why not get a younger version of him, who's age fits with the timeline in Crabbe? Harkless just turned 24 and has been a proven player. They also want Justin Jackson in the draft.

So if they had to choose between Crabbe, Harkless, Justin Jackson, and Harry Giles (26th) or Noah, O'Quinn, and Jonathan Isaac, I think they might take that first one.

 

[BonesJones]

If that 8 can be turned into Jonathan Isaac, it's fine. O'Quinn is basically similar level to Harkless albeit in different position. Noah is trash these days.

Thing is, Isaac will likely be taken already when pick no. 8 comes and we will be left with Monk or Smith left as the best player available and it won't be worth it as we should be addressing different areas. So in the end we will be left without a small forward other than Turner.

Not that they would do the above trade. It would make them slightly better now but long term they need to find second piece to lead the team with Porzingis. Smith, Monk, Isaac or Ntilikina could be that.

Why will Isaac be taken when pick 8 comes up? MIN at 7 has Lavine and Wiggins on the wing and will take Markkanen. Fox, Tatum, Jackson, Fultz, and Ball will go top 5.

The only team that would take Isaac is Orlando at 6, but it's more likely they'll take one of Monk or Smith than they'll take Isaac. There's a great chance Isaac is there at 8.

I think it's more likely that one of Crabbe/Jackson/Giles would develop into that 2nd option than Isaac. Even if they don't, they're better supporting players and pieces for the future than Noah and O'Quinn. They could then land that 2nd option in next years draft.

 

[BonesJones]

If Butler gets traded to Boston, we have to try to jump into a 3-way trade and nab Crowder.

I think a deal would center around BKNs 2018 1st. We could offer Chicago extra picks to take Crowder.

Something like:
BOS Gets: Jimmy Butler
POR Gets: Jae Crowder
CHI Gets: 2018 BKN 1st, 20th Pick, 2018 POR 1st, Harkless, Leonard, Smart

We save $12M and upgrade our starting SF while only trading 20th and a future 1st. CHI valuesthe 24 year old Harkless over the soon-to-be 27 year old Crowder.
We would still have 2 picks that we could use or trade for role players (such as 26th and Napier for Kyle O'Quinn).

We'd also be far enough below the luxery tax to receive our full (~$8M) MLE to splurge on a starting PF like Amir Johnson or Zach Randolph.

If Boston trades for a star SF, we need to hop in and nab Crowder. He'd be perfect for this team and allow us to focus on other areas.

 

[Reep]

and how many blocks are made per game? is denying position and keeping a guy in front of you as important or more important than standing upright while easy shots go in because a guy has gotten much better position because of strength? IMO no one factor is paramount, its a mix and standing reach can be over rated as well.

We should probably start Pat C over Nurkic at center. Pat can move around faster and his combined reach and jump is 4" higher than Nurkic.

I get what you are trying to say, but you have not shown any evidence that Leaf is worse at keeping his man in front of him than Semi is (both had similar DRTG in college). As I said above, if Semi was more dominant like Sir Charles, then I would give him a look. He isn't.

Per 40 (for comparison only) Leaf gets 11 boards and 1.5 blocks; Semi gets 8 and 0.5. Semi is an athletic specimen, but I don't see him using it well in basketball. There is a reason he is slipping down the draft boards.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Ojeleye would be a huge reach at 26. You shouldn't really be comparing him to Leaf, as Leaf will most likely be gone by 26. You should really be comparing him to guys like Harry Giles, Jordan Bell, Bam Adebayo, Derrick White, Hamidou Diallo, and Jonathan Motley, who will be more likely to be available at 26.

Of course, who we take at 15 and 20 will play a part in who we take at 26. We need help at power forward and back up center as well as a solid wing with good length that can defend, either at SF or SG. If we go big early, we may go for a SF/SG at 26, or vise versa...

BNM

Brain storming here, but I'm trying to think like NO right now, and I think we are a bit off on all of our thoughts.

The KEY is, does he believe he overpaid? Or does be believe a few guys had down years and will bounce back or improve?

I think he believes Turner is here at least one more year and still part of the potential core as our 6th man go to PG off the bench. (CJ will not be a bench guy on this team guys, sorry for those who have advocated for such a move)

I think he now realizes he overpaid for Crabbe and its low percentage he has a significant jump next year because his role will not change.

I think he still believes in Leonard. Unique skill set for a big and has been riddled with minor injuries preventing him from finding any type of rhythm. I believe NO is okay with giving him another year at least.

these are the three guys that most people believe are not playing to pay scale, right?
Aminu/Harkless/Vonleh...all on better movable/reasonable contracts that aren't cap inhibitors. Everyone else is even smaller.

Okay. So with that mindset, Crabbe is on the block. and is the player needing to be replaced.
Lets look at our lineup currently without Crabbe...

Dame/Turner/Napier
CJ/Connaughton/Quarterman
Harkless/Layman
Vonleh/Aminu/Leonard
Nurkic/Davis/Leonard


I think the team believes in Vonleh(I do too). I think he is young enough that they can talk him into buying low on a contract after next year (provided he shows continued improvement throughout next season), which will help keep a contender intact for years to come. I am also fine with Aminu and Turner as our off the bench lock down defenders, but the bench needs help in scoring if these two are going to be long term there.

So to me the improvements NO believes we need to make are in this order and really the first one is the most important and is HUGE priority number one.

Harkless joins the bench and we have an improved lock down 2 way SF (I will get to this more in a moment.)

We need an improved backup Center primarily an offensive threat as long as he can rebound and toss a body on a guy on defense. He doesn't have to be elite.

If we make these moves, e should be really close by the end of the next season as the team start to gel and continues to grow.

Guys, I actually think NO is going to go full on swinging for the moon. I think CJ eluded to it and the team was told to hush hush, so NO can do his usual closed door magic.

He is going after PG. Really. Alot of things make sense.

Crabbe/Davis plus our three picks for PG/Jefferson(salary dump for them like Crabbe is for us) and our three picks. Toss in a future 2nd if that's what it takes or some cash. I don't know. That's NO's job, but I think he is gonna go for it hard. He will have to sell all of Vonleh, Pg and Nurk on signing for less than max for the bigger picture, but if they really want to win, that's just what they will do. I think that for Nurk and PG, winning Is the most important factor and I think Dame and NO can sell them on it.
PG is a hop and a skip from his family in LA...

I actually think NO might be able to pull it off.

So let's say he does just that and our roster entering next season is this...

Dame/Turner/Napier
CJ/Connaughton/Quarterman
PG/Harkless/Layman
Vonleh/Aminu/Leonard
Nurkic/Jefferson/Leonard

That's not bad no???

And with no rookie from the draft needing a year or two to get acclimated...

Second unit needs some offensive help, but look at great teams. You nail down your stars... your starters. The role players revolve. SA,GS, CLE, etc...
Our starting five will contend with any, I think, and the second unit we tweak as needed.

I think this all might happen right before or during draft night. You can make trades on draft nights that includes players right?

 

[Trackjack]

If you put Harkless on the bench you should go ahead trade him. Due he never been good coming off the bench. He is best at starting but if you get PG he will coming off the bench. So I would throw him in as part of a trade.

 

[BonesJones]

I would prefer to send out AC, Leonard, and the 3 picks for PG. We would have our full MLE (~$8M) to sign a PF.

Then if PG leaves in the summer of 2018, we would only have to trade Turner (He'll would only have 2 years remaining) and our 2018 protected 1st to have a lot of cap space, which would make the loss of PG13 manageable.