Dear Paul George,
I would like to be the first to officially welcome you to Rip City!
I just got caught up on this thread, and I can't believe nobody else has figured this out:
All this Laker talk is a smoke screen; a TOTAL smoke screen. It's actually a fucking genius move by George and his agent.
Like any effective smokescreen, it must be believable. It is. George is from Los Angeles, grew up a fan of Kobe Bryant, and most importantly has previously expressed a desire to play for the Lakers - totally believable.
By announcing he won't re-sign with IND and wants to sign with the Lakers next summer, George and his agent completely torpedoed his trade value by making it look like any other team that trades for Paul George is just getting a 1-year rental. Think about that for a second... Why would a star player like Paul George deliberately decrease his own trade value?
Simple, the one thing Paul George has consistently expressed and THE reason he wants out of IND is he wants to play for a winning team with a chance to contend for an NBA title. Does that sound like the Lakers to you? More on that later...
Typically, when a disgruntled superstar demands a trade, a bidding war ensues. The team that ends up landing the superstar is the one willing to give up the most to get him. As a result, the superstar ends up joining a roster that has been depleted of its most valuable assets - effectively weakening the team he joins. If you really want to play for a winner, forcing them to gut their roster to land you is the last thing you want to do. By announcing he wants to be a Laker next year, Paul George just drastically drove down his own trade value, allowing the team that lands him to do so without gutting their roster.
Paul George is smart enough to know that the Lakers are nowhere near contending for anything other than another trip to the lottery with, or without him. The Lakers now have a high lottery pick for the 4th year in a row. So far, they have been unable to land anyone who looks like a true superstar to pair with Paul George. To compete with the GSWs and CLEs of the world, you need at LEAST a Big 3, and these days with Durant in GSW, and Big 4. If George goes to LAL, he will be a Big 1, pissing away the prime of his career playing with a bunch of kids who aren't ready to compete with the Durants and LeBrons of this world.
George wants to play with a winner and he doesn't want to wait until he's 34 and well past his prime to do so. So, his best move is to join a team with at least two, or three other players in the prime of their careers, and best to join a team that's still on the way up and not one that has already peaked.
Sound familiar? POR already has the highest scoring starting backcourt in the NBA, both of whom are locked up long term and have expressed a desire to stay in POR AND have Paul George join them here. Plus, we also have the 22-year old Bosnian Beast in the middle. Remember, IND was a serious threat to MIA, taking them to 7 games in the WCF when George had Roy Hibbert playing like a beast behind him. He'd have that here in POR in a younger, more motivated, more talented Jusuf Nurkic manning the middle. All of our current Big 3 are George's age, or younger. They are either firmly in their primes (Lillard and McCollum) and not even close to declining, or still on the rise (Nurkic) , contributing now and only going to get better.
With George, our Big 4 would be , on average 3 - 4 years younger than GSW's Big 4. We would continue to rise as they eventually start to decline. Adding George to our roster should immediately catapult us to the 2nd best team in the Western Conference, poised to start challenging and eventually dethroning GSW.
The second reason this smoke screen is genius is that forcing a trade now, and not just waiting to sign with the Lakers next summer, is that it conveys his Bird rights to the team that acquires him via trade. If Paul George REALLY wanted to go to LAL, he'd just bide his time for one more season in IND and then sign with the Lakers as a free agent next summer. They would have the cap space to offer him a max contract and by signing as an unrestricted free agent, the Lakers wouldn't have to give up anything to get him - they would get to keep all their young "talent" and drat picks.
If he rides it out in IND, where he will NOT re-sign, it limits the number of teams he can sign with next summer to those sufficiently below the cap to offer him a max contact. And most of those are losing teams with crap rosters - i.e. teams that are NOT and WILL NOT be contenders until well after the prime of Paul George's career.
But, by forcing a trade now, to a team like POR (for example), that team will have his Bird rights and the ability to offer him a max contract regardless of their cap situation. Ideally, we'd also unload a big contract like Allen Crabbe in acquiring George, but even if IND opted for expiring contracts + draft picks instead, Paul Allen would not hesitate for one second to open his wallet and pay whatever it takes to keep our Big 4 of Dame, PG13, C.J. and Nurk together.
It's been widely speculated that with a combination of 3 first round picks + the contracts to match George's salary (either younger players like Crabbe, or expiring contracts like Aminu + Davis) we can offer IND the best package to help jump start their rebuild - if we are willing. And they only reason we wouldn't be willing is the fear that PG13 would be a 1-year rental.
Poppycock, I say. Paul George WANTS to be in POR where he will be part of the youngest Big 4 in the league that will be ready to contend during his prime and this whole smoke screen was designed to get him here while also preserving our most valuable assets and ability to become a contender.
So, welcome to Portland Paul George. Congrats to you and your agent. Well played gentlemen, well played.
Sincerely,
BNM
