Ah, I see it in the CBA. Although it says here the 2010/11 qualifying offers were $6.4M for the #1 overall pick from 4 years ago. So I'm not sure how it could be possible with the likely lowering of the rookie scales in 2011/12 and the new CBA how anyone is guessing that will be $8.5M. I'd guess more like $6M-$7M at most.
But either way it's moot. Looking likely that we won't make the offer and will let him fall to unrestricted status then. So makes sense now.
I got the number from this site, they're usually pretty accurate but I'm not 100%
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/portland.htm