Miller vs. Roy (1 Viewer)

[Rastapopoulos]

Is it just me, or has Andre been more important to the Blazers this year than Roy? It wouldn't be surprising, of course, because Miller is the PG, who is in charge of distributing the ball, and with a reasonably ball-dominant PG, as he goes, so goes the team (extreme cases: Chris Paul and Steve Nash). Now, teams with players like Paul are more fun to watch (better on the fast break, lots of alley-oops) than teams where the star is more of a scorer than a passer, or teams where the assists are spread out more amongst the players (like teams that play the triangle), but that doesn't mean they're more successful (see Chris Paul's and Steve Nash's absence of rings). And it's not clear that a team with Dre as the MVP will be more successful than the Blazers team of 2 years ago with Roy at his peak. (Yes, that team lost to the Rockets. But the Rockets were damn good - taking the Lakers to seven without Yao - and remember, Miller hasn't ever made the second round either.)

It seems to me that there are two camps:
1. Roy needs to adapt. Stop being so selfish. Grow up and work with Miller.
2. Miller needs to go so we can get Old Roy back.
(okay, 3 camps: 3. Roy's already over the hill.)
I used to be in the first camp. And I can recognize that Miller is really good - perhaps Roy good, and certainly criminally underrated. He's just a baller, and when he's on, he's pretty much unstoppable. Also, he really IS a PG (although, I would say, more of a scoring PG than people tend to think) which Brandon just isn't. And I LIKE good PGs.
But...
I just think, we need Roy to be a superstar if we're going to compete. And Roy can't be a superstar as an off-the-ball SG / backup PG. MAYBE he'll make it work. MAYBE he's just starting the season slow. But people always thought Bayless would learn to be a PG and I never believed that.

So... I'm sort of moving in to that second camp. It doesn't help that Miller can't shoot, so the best way to use him on offense, so that people can't help off him, is to post him up, but that way turns everybody else into spot-up shooters.

So, I'm still hoping for the Bigger Better Blake. I'm sort of coming round to the idea of Mo Williams. I used to hate it, because he's a BAD defender and because he's more of a gunner. But I think he proved his worth playing off LeBron, and maybe he can play off Brandon. Trouble is, the Cavs are currently in "trying to prove they don't need LeBron" mode, leading the league in attendance (!) and pretending not to rebuild. So they might not be ready to give him up.

Maybe the Wiz will decide they can't move Arenas unless they play him A LITTLE, so they move Hinrich to give him time? Bleh. It's like repeating the arguments of the past two years. But I really DON'T think Miller and Roy is working, and worse, I think McMillan is trying to keep Roy happy by letting him be PG of the second unit, with the idea that at least THEN he gets the ball in his hands, but the trouble is, Roy isn't a PG, and just like with Bayless, you see him struggle trying to run the team instead of playing to his strengths. Plus, he's playing too many minutes, and we're seeing less of Armon than we should.

 

[blazerboy30]

wow. just wow.

 

[LittleAlex]

It's just you.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Miller's PER: 21+
Brandon's: 17+

 

[Rastapopoulos]

wow. just wow.

Thanks! Which part?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Miller's PER: 21+
Brandon's: 17+

Also:

 Players
Player 1        Team    	  + 	   - 	+/- 	Min 	+/- /Min 	G
A. Miller 	Trail Blazers 	325 	-287 	38 	156:03 	.243 	5
L. Aldridge 	Trail Blazers 	402 	-368 	34 	194:18 	.174 	5
B. Roy       	Trail Blazers 	406 	-374 	32 	196:11 	.163 	5
N. Batum 	Trail Blazers 	249 	-219 	30 	118:28 	.253 	5
W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	248 	-231 	17 	118:37 	.143 	5
M. Camby 	Trail Blazers 	284 	-269 	15 	137:29 	.109 	5
A. Johnson 	Trail Blazers 	103 	-92 	11 	50:51 	.216 	5
R. Fernandez 	Trail Blazers 	174 	-172 	2 	91:38 	.021 	5
L. Babbitt 	Trail Blazers 	8 	-9 	-1 	4:24 	-.227 	1
D. Cunningham 	Trail Blazers 	164 	-167 	-3 	87:17 	-.034 	5
F. Oberto 	Trail Blazers 	82 	-102 	-20 	44:41 	-.447 	5

Yeah yeah, small sample size blah blah blah. But small sample size or not, this means that the Blazers have outscored the other team by more when Miller is on the floor so far this year than when Brandon has. (It also means we need more Batum on the floor, because he leads in per minute +/-.)

Of course, somewhat hurting my point is this:

Top Two-Player Combinations
Player 1 	Player 2 	Team 	+ 	- 	+/- 	Min 	+/- /Min 	G
A. Miller 	Brandon Roy 	Trail Blazers 	311 	-266 	45 	144:41 	.310 	
A. Miller 	N. Batum 	Trail Blazers 	235 	-196 	39 	108:57 	.357 	
L. Aldridge 	Brandon Roy 	Trail Blazers 	352 	-319 	33 	167:57 	.196 	
A. Miller 	L. Aldridge 	Trail Blazers 	301 	-269 	32 	146:00 	.219 	
Brandon Roy 	N. Batum 	Trail Blazers 	247 	-217 	30 	115:51 	.258 	
L. Aldridge 	N. Batum 	Trail Blazers 	240 	-211 	29 	114:34 	.253 	
N. Batum 	W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	48 	-24 	24 	19:18 	1.242 	
A. Miller 	W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	104 	-82 	22 	45:56 	.478 	
L. Aldridge 	W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	177 	-156 	21 	81:52 	.256 	
Brandon Roy 	W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	175 	-158 	17 	81:15 	.209 	
M. Camby 	Brandon Roy 	Trail Blazers 	258 	-243 	15 	122:45 	.122 	
W. Matthews 	A. Johnson 	Trail Blazers 	85 	-73 	12 	38:57 	.308 	
R. Fernandez 	A. Johnson 	Trail Blazers 	83 	-71 	12 	40:05 	.299 	
M. Camby 	A. Miller 	Trail Blazers 	249 	-238 	11 	120:58 	.090 	
M. Camby 	N. Batum 	Trail Blazers 	190 	-179 	11 	93:29 	.117 	
D. Cunningham 	A. Johnson 	Trail Blazers 	85 	-75 	10 	42:05 	.237 	
L. Aldridge 	A. Johnson 	Trail Blazers 	62 	-54 	8 	29:58 	.266 	
M. Camby 	D. Cunningham 	Trail Blazers 	32 	-24 	8 	14:10 	.564 	
L. Aldridge 	D. Cunningham 	Trail Blazers 	88 	-82 	6 	45:14 	.132 	
A. Miller 	R. Fernandez 	Trail Blazers 	42 	-36 	6 	23:40 	.253 	
M. Camby 	L. Aldridge 	Trail Blazers 	246 	-240 	6 	119:55 	.050 	
M. Camby 	W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	89 	-83 	6 	40:33 	.147 	
Brandon Roy 	A. Johnson 	Trail Blazers 	34 	-29 	5 	18:24 	.271 	
A. Miller 	D. Cunningham 	Trail Blazers 	40 	-36 	4 	23:09 	.172 	
L. Aldridge 	R. Fernandez 	Trail Blazers 	106 	-103 	3 	55:18 	.054

That is, Roy and Miller playing together have the highest +/- of any two. BUT, that's partly because they play together so much. If you sort the above list by +/- per minute, it looks like this:

Top Two-Player Combinations
Player 1 	Player 2 	Team 	+ 	- 	+/- 	Min 	+/- /Min 	G
N. Batum 	W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	48 	-24 	24 	19:18 	1.242 	
M. Camby 	D. Cunningham 	Trail Blazers 	32 	-24 	8 	14:10 	.564 	
A. Miller 	W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	104 	-82 	22 	45:56 	.478 	
A. Miller 	N. Batum 	Trail Blazers 	235 	-196 	39 	108:57 	.357 	
A. Miller 	Brandon Roy 	Trail Blazers 	311 	-266 	45 	144:41 	.310 	
W. Matthews 	A. Johnson 	Trail Blazers 	85 	-73 	12 	38:57 	.308 	
R. Fernandez 	A. Johnson 	Trail Blazers 	83 	-71 	12 	40:05 	.299 	
Brandon Roy 	A. Johnson 	Trail Blazers 	34 	-29 	5 	18:24 	.271 	
L. Aldridge 	A. Johnson 	Trail Blazers 	62 	-54 	8 	29:58 	.266 	
Brandon Roy 	N. Batum 	Trail Blazers 	247 	-217 	30 	115:51 	.258 	
L. Aldridge 	W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	177 	-156 	21 	81:52 	.256 	
L. Aldridge 	N. Batum 	Trail Blazers 	240 	-211 	29 	114:34 	.253 	
A. Miller 	R. Fernandez 	Trail Blazers 	42 	-36 	6 	23:40 	.253 	
D. Cunningham 	A. Johnson 	Trail Blazers 	85 	-75 	10 	42:05 	.237 	
A. Miller 	L. Aldridge 	Trail Blazers 	301 	-269 	32 	146:00 	.219 	
Brandon Roy 	W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	175 	-158 	17 	81:15 	.209 	
L. Aldridge 	Brandon Roy 	Trail Blazers 	352 	-319 	33 	167:57 	.196 	
A. Miller 	D. Cunningham 	Trail Blazers 	40 	-36 	4 	23:09 	.172 	
M. Camby 	W. Matthews 	Trail Blazers 	89 	-83 	6 	40:33 	.147 	
L. Aldridge 	D. Cunningham 	Trail Blazers 	88 	-82 	6 	45:14 	.132 	
M. Camby 	Brandon Roy 	Trail Blazers 	258 	-243 	15 	122:45 	.122 	
M. Camby 	N. Batum 	Trail Blazers 	190 	-179 	11 	93:29 	.117 	
M. Camby 	A. Miller 	Trail Blazers 	249 	-238 	11 	120:58 	.090 	
L. Aldridge 	R. Fernandez 	Trail Blazers 	106 	-103 	3 	55:18 	.054 
M. Camby 	L. Aldridge 	Trail Blazers 	246 	-240 	6 	119:55 	.050

Interesting that Roy only shows up three times in the top 15 while Miller shows up three times in the top 5 (and alongside Brandon in his highest slot).

 

[XXPrimusXX]

Considering the season is almost over, this is a great time to analyze an entire body of work and make a solid point.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Considering the season is almost over, this is a great time to analyze an entire body of work and make a solid point.

In other words "sample size blah blah blah".

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think it's been fairly clear that Miller has been more instrumental so fat to the team's success, but in the long run, they need a dominant Roy more than they need a dominant Miller.

I'm just hoping Brandon stops settling for the off-balance 20 footers and either starts shooting after curling off of pin downs and screens OR starts taking it strong to the hole. If he's going to shoot 40% for the season we're probably fooked.

 

[KingSpeed]

Roy's second season was the one in which he commanded the ball the most. You can see it in his numbers. He averaged almost 6 assists per game. But we only won half our games. The following year, we won 54 games because we got a career year out of Blake. And yes, a Bigger Blake could get us back to playing that way again. And I agree that Mo Williams would fit in great. He was the second option on a team that won 141 games in the last two seasons. On our team, he would only need to be the 4th option. We could be dominant. I would not cry over such a trade.

THAT SAID, we are getting a GREAT season so far out of Miller. He's averaging 12 pts & 9 assts even though he has to share some of the playmaking duties with Roy. Miller hasn't averaged this many assists since he played for Denver! He has a fantastic BBIQ and I always feel he is always trying to make the best play for our team every single time down. Yes, he has never won in the playoffs but he has never had this good of a team (when it's healthy). And I've seen Roy have many good games since Miller arrived. Remember Roy's insanely good game against the Warriors last year. Miller was on the court there with him. So it's just not true that Roy can't succeed in a backcourt with Miller. What Roy has to embrace is that our team's offense is not all on him anymore and that's a good thing. He has HELP. And we're winning. We have the same record as the Heat!

So while, for a year, I wanted to trade Miller, I am now firmly in the camp of KEEP HIM.

Go Blazers.

 

[midnight_show]

If we continue to get games like today, Miller taking 4 shots and dishing out 13 assists, while Roy takes 19 shots, then keep him for sure.

 

[KingSpeed]

If we continue to get games like today, Miller taking 4 shots and dishing out 13 assists, while Roy takes 19 shots, then keep him for sure.

Exactly. Last season, inexplicably, he was always looking to score. This season, he's creating for everyone while still getting points in the flow or when we're in a jam.

 

[BGrantFan]

If we continue to get games like today, Miller taking 4 shots and dishing out 13 assists, while Roy takes 19 shots, then keep him for sure.

I almost started a thread about how well Miller played as the PG last night. Throw out the 2nd half of the OT loss to OKC, and Miller is playing the "pure" point as well as anybody in the league the past two games. There is no reason that he can't average 10 apg if he concentrates on moving the ball early in the shot clock instead of standing there pounding nails into the floor with the ball, then launching up some wild shot after the ball comes back to him.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I There is no reason that he can't average 10 apg if he concentrates on moving the ball early in the shot clock instead of standing there pounding nails into the floor with the ball, then launching up some wild shot after the ball comes back to him.

But, that's Nate's offensive game plan - or at least it has been for the past four seasons. If you don't have a fast break (which they rarely did), you milked the shot clock, gave the ball to Roy, let him try to create his own shot and if the defense collapsed on him he'd kick it out for a rushed 3-pointer as the shot clock expired. Blake was good in that role. He couldn't create for himself, or anyone else, but as long as he had his feet set, he was a good 3-point shooter.

Miller is the exact opposite. He can create for himself and others, but is a horrible 3-point shooter.

So, does Miller's improved play signify that Nate has finally decided to adapt his system to his players' strengths, rather that try to force players to fit his system? Or, is this Andre Miller just deciding to play to his own strengths?

Whatever the case, Miller is indeed playing great at the PG spot. He is currently 7th in the league in APG (and plays the least minutes of anyone in the top 15). He is averaging more APG than Tony Parker, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings, Devin Harris, etc. He is 4th in the league in AST/48, trailing only Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul and Jason Kidd. His AST% of 42.3 is 6th in the league and his highest since he led the league in 2001-02.

Yes, it's only 7 games, but right now he's flat out playing like one of the top 5 or 6 PGs in the league. Can he keep that up over a 82 game schedule? Who knows, but right now he's playing well and the team is winning. Hard to complain about that.

It will be interesting to see how things change when Oden comes back. Miller has always been one of the best in the league at feeding the low post and driving, drawing the defense and finding the open big man for the alley-oop slam. In the very few minutes Miller and Oden played together last season (due to Nate not starting Miller and limiting Oden to 6 minutes or two fouls in the 1st quarter), they seemed to develop and good rapport. If Miller can find Oden for a lot of easy baskets and dunks, I think it will really help quickly build Greg's confidence - which is exactly what he'll need coming back from yet another injury.

BNM

 

[Pinwheel1]

To me it makes no difference who is MORE important because we need both. We need everyone for that matter.

But I will say that the arguement some of made last year regarding LMA , and the fact that if he played with a PG like Nash or Paul, he would have better numbers is looking pretty accurate with the way Miller is playing. 3-4 alley oops a game makes a big difference. (Thank Camby for some of those too)

Unfortunately for LMA, when Joel and Oden come back those numbers will go down.

 

[Nikolokolus]

But, that's Nate's offensive game plan - or at least it has been for the past four seasons. If you don't have a fast break (which they rarely did), you milked the shot clock, gave the ball to Roy, let him try to create his own shot and if the defense collapsed on him he'd kick it out for a rushed 3-pointer as the shot clock expired. Blake was good in that role. He couldn't create for himself, or anyone else, but as long as he had his feet set, he was a good 3-point shooter.

Miller is the exact opposite. He can create for himself and others, but is a horrible 3-point shooter.

So, does Miller's improved play signify that Nate has finally decided to adapt his system to his players' strengths, rather that try to force players to fit his system? Or, is this Andre Miller just deciding to play to his own strengths?

Whatever the case, Miller is indeed playing great at the PG spot. He is currently 7th in the league in APG (and plays the least minutes of anyone in the top 15). He is averaging more APG than Tony Parker, Steve Nash, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings, Devin Harris, etc. He is 4th in the league in AST/48, trailing only Rajon Rondo, Chris Paul and Jason Kidd. His AST% of 42.3 is 6th in the league and his highest since he led the league in 2001-02.

Yes, it's only 7 games, but right now he's flat out playing like one of the top 5 or 6 PGs in the league. Can he keep that up over a 82 game schedule? Who knows, but right now he's playing well and the team is winning. Hard to complain about that.

It will be interesting to see how things change when Oden comes back. Miller has always been one of the best in the league at feeding the low post and driving, drawing the defense and finding the open big man for the alley-oop slam. In the very few minutes Miller and Oden played together last season (due to Nate not starting Miller and limiting Oden to 6 minutes or two fouls in the 1st quarter), they seemed to develop and good rapport. If Miller can find Oden for a lot of easy baskets and dunks, I think it will really help quickly build Greg's confidence - which is exactly what he'll need coming back from yet another injury.

BNM

Greg openly calling Andre a "breath of fresh air" tells you everything you need to know about what he did for him and his confidence. What will Greg be able to do coming back from injury is hard to say, but with Miller and Armon both willing passers (Armon a little too willing last night) I think he's got a decent shot at flourishing on offense either off the bench or playing alongside the starters. Hopefully we get to see it sooner rather than later.

 

[J~Rush]

Oh sportstwo

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Watching the Toronto game, I would list our best players in this order: Aldridge, Miller, Roy.
Aldridge is playing great on both ends. The increase in alley-oops is GREAT, but he's also doing a ton of things on defense that don't necessarily show up, like pressuring much smaller players.

Meanwhile, Miller was amazing, getting great plays out of people like Batum and Matthews (his ONE great play).
Roy bailed us out for a bit, but also clanked a fair number that he used to make and never really got to the basket. I don't think he's at his best. Maybe he won't get back to his bestest best, but I think he will get a good deal more efficient this season. I hope.

(Boy, though, this was the polar opposite of the Bucks game for Armon and Wesley. They just totally stunk up the place.)

 

[Natebishop3]

I almost started a thread about how well Miller played as the PG last night. Throw out the 2nd half of the OT loss to OKC, and Miller is playing the "pure" point as well as anybody in the league the past two games. There is no reason that he can't average 10 apg if he concentrates on moving the ball early in the shot clock instead of standing there pounding nails into the floor with the ball, then launching up some wild shot after the ball comes back to him.

I guess I just don't see him pound the ball and jack up shots as much as you do. Maybe I should pay better attention?

 

[BGrantFan]

I guess I just don't see him pound the ball and jack up shots as much as you do. Maybe I should pay better attention?

10 shots, 1 assist in the 2nd half/OT of the OKC game. That is what I was referencing in this post, and others during that game thread and the other "Trade Roy" threads. Do I need to spell it out for you next time, or post it multiple times? I'm here to help you understand, if you need me.

Miller and Roy should be complimentary, and outside of the 2nd half of the OKC game, they have been.

 

[Minstrel]

instead of standing there pounding nails into the floor with the ball, then launching up some wild shot after the ball comes back to him.

That sounds like Damon Stoudamire, not Andre Miller. Miller, in my opinion, makes pretty quick decisions and keeps the ball moving. I think you're placing too much importance on how Miller played in the injury-ravaged season of last year, when he had to adjust for the good of the team (and even last year, I still don't feel he "pounded the ball" for most of the shot clock or anything).