NBA players coming out early compared to college experience

[magnifier661]

Since Denny took over the Lillard thread, I figured a new thread that can talk about the metric of NBA players comping out early, to those that stay in College.

https://www.amherst.edu/media/view/329619/original/Sugai-EffectEarlyEntrytoNBA.pdf

This study explains that the school experience is better for players that don't have "superstar talent"; but it also explains that the "mental maturity" is learned through college; with these young kids able to learn respect, humility and team philosophy.

Here is a quote from this study....

The general pattern in the data would suggest that less- skilled players perform at a lower level when they enter the NBA earlier and are therefore helped by the 2006 age minimum. For these players, playing college basketball seems to be correlated with an improved level of performance that would lead to a higher earning potential, but this cannot be proven at a statistically significant level.
For more-skilled players, the trends in the data seem to suggest that entering the NBA at an earlier age might have a neutral if not positive effect. Although the results show primarily negative coefficients for performance after entrance from high school, the primarily positive coefficients for the “Top 5” interaction term have the opposite effect. Combining these two coefficients tells us that top five recruits who enter the NBA immediately after high school fair about the same as those who attend college and in some cases outperform them. If these results were indeed true, it would mean that early entrance remains the best option for these players. The actual on-the-job training that the players gain might have limited benefits, but the mere fact that they are being paid to develop while not sacrificing any amount of skill level would make the NBA a better option coming out of college. The earnings results for the older dataset do not disprove this notion. High school entrants, in general, appear to earn more money and produce at a higher skill level during their NBA careers. Some of this might be due to selection bias and salary incongruities, but the fact remains that players entering the NBA directly from high school have enjoyed their fair share of success in the past. For the top players, the effects of entry directly from high school appear to be neutral if not positive, and the argument that even the most-skilled players are at a disadvantage when they enter the league directly from high school simply is not true.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I think players should come out as early as they realize they're gay. Of course, sometimes it takes an experience in college to bring them to that realization. College is all about experimentation.

 

[magnifier661]

I think players should come out as early as they realize they're gay. Of course, sometimes it takes an experience in college to bring them to that realization. College is all about experimentation.

College brings out the best in you

 

[Nate4Prez]

I think players should come out as early as they realize they're gay. Of course, sometimes it takes an experience in college to bring them to that realization. College is all about experimentation.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Rastapopoulos again.

 

[jlprk]

I believe that a real player needs 2 years experience at the college level before getting it at the pro level.

 

[magnifier661]

I believe that a real player needs 2 years experience at the college level before getting it at the pro level.

According to both studies, you are correct.

 

[BigGameDamian]

People also get in to major debt going to collage nowadays and end up doing job(s) that they could do without a degree.

 

[magnifier661]

People also get in to major debt going to collage nowadays and end up doing job(s) that they could do without a degree.

The problem I see are how many of these superstar talent type players never learn how to grow up. They get millions and they don't know how to live in that type of income class.

Shawn kemp is an example of high schooler that wasn't able to be responsible. Duncan is an example of a senior that comes in and has a great career and a great head on their shoulders.

College teaches a player respect, team comradery, and learning to live within your means.

 

[jlprk]

I hope to get some again before I croak.

 

[jlprk]

The problem I see are how many of these superstar talent type players never learn how to grow up. They get millions and they don't know how to live in that type of income class.

Shawn kemp is an example of high schooler that wasn't able to be responsible. Duncan is an example of a senior that comes in and has a great career and a great head on their shoulders.

College teaches a player respect, team comradery, and learning to live within your means.

Shawn Kemp is the most responsible player there is. He has paid child support faithfully on every kid. When the Blazers felt they hadn't gotten their money's worth, he optioned out of almost THIRTY MILLION DOLLARS and left to make $1 million per year in Orlando. All those $3M amounts added to every Pritchard trade to bribe opposing owners--Allen got that money from Kemp, and a lot more.

 

[Denny Crane]

kemp sucked.

He was a 6-time all-star. Career PER of 19.

He did eat his way out of the league.

 

[magnifier661]

kemp sucked.

He was a 6-time all-star. Career PER of 19.

He did eat his way out of the league.

High level talent that lost his stardom to Coccaine and over eating. If he only stayed in school to learn the important fundamentals of life.

 

[jlprk]

Hurting yourself is not the definition of irresponsibility. A couple of months ago I saw him answer a crowd's every boring question for an hour, then sign every stupid autograph for over an hour. He did it to help the return of the Sonics, not for money.

A few years ago, Payton ran away from us after minimal time and jumped into his limo.

 

[BigGameDamian]

Michael Vick went to college. Qyntel Woods had one season of college.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

if you are good enough to play significant minutes as an 18 year old, good for you, go to the nba

if you arent, college will (most likely) make you better than sitting on the end of a bench in the nba will

seems pretty logical to me

 

[magnifier661]

Michael Vick went to college. Qyntel Woods had one season of college.

And? Roy went to college, Kareem went to college, Karl Malone went to college.

I have kids and I remembered when I was 18. Being young and dumb with millions can completely ruin you.

And the 1 year of college is like coming out of high school now.

 

[Denny Crane]

Bob Filner has a PhD from Cornell. It prepared him to sexually harass a woman a month (that we know of) in his first year in office as mayor of San Diego.

He stayed extra years to learn those extra fundamentals.

EDIT: removed : mags : smiley.

 

[magnifier661]

Bob Filner has a PhD from Cornell. It prepared him to sexually harass a woman a month (that we know of) in his first year in office as mayor of San Diego.

He stayed extra years to learn those extra fundamentals.

EDIT: removed : mags : smiley.

So you believe that a 18 year old with a million dollars would have the same statistical chance to be responsible than a 22 year old that graduated college?

: mags :

 

[Denny Crane]

So you believe that a 18 year old with a million dollars would have the same statistical chance to be responsible than a 22 year old that graduated college?

: mags :

I don't think there's any correlation whatsoever.

 

[magnifier661]

I don't think there's any correlation whatsoever.

Well you are wrong

 

[Denny Crane]

Well you are wrong

Because you said so.

You got me there with that bit of scholarly research.

: mags :

 

[magnifier661]

Because you said so.

You got me there with that bit of scholarly research.

: mags :

I don't need scholastic research. You are straddling the fence because it goes against what you are trying to argue.

You make a poll with thousands of parents, asking them if their 18 year old would be responsible with a million dollars. Or would they think 4 years of college is more likely going to make them more responsible; they would answer the later.

But you go ahead and reach for the stars. You are losing footing

 

[Denny Crane]

I do like some empirical evidence of such claims.

From what I see, some people are just idiots. Some who have money, some who lose it all.

Seems more likely to be an upbringing thing and who the people hook up with to trust with their finances.

But that's all drawn from anecdotal evidence. I don't care to make a poll, I'm not the one making any sort of claim. You are.

 

[magnifier661]

I do like some empirical evidence of such claims.

From what I see, some people are just idiots. Some who have money, some who lose it all.

Seems more likely to be an upbringing thing and who the people hook up with to trust with their finances.

But that's all drawn from anecdotal evidence. I don't care to make a poll, I'm not the one making any sort of claim. You are.

Its as simple as looking at gambling and drinking ages in the US. The majority of States have 21 years old as the age; yet you are considered an adult at age 18. So why the increase of age for responsibilities like drinking and gambling? One would assume that hypothetically a 21 year old would hold more responsibility than an 18 year old.

But you go boy! Keep on keeping on.

 

[Denny Crane]

Its as simple as looking at gambling and drinking ages in the US. The majority of States have 21 years old as the age; yet you are considered an adult at age 18. So why the increase of age for responsibilities like drinking and gambling? One would assume that hypothetically a 21 year old would hold more responsibility than an 18 year old.

But you go boy! Keep on keeping on.

Nobody gets drunk on college campuses.

Nope.

Nada.

Nobody.

No one.

Drinking age laws are blue laws. If you care to look up what that means.

Turning 18 doesn't make anyone an adult. it is no measure of maturity in the least.

 

[Run BJM]

The thing with the draft is its not a science and never will be, as much as everyone wishes they could master it. You can analyze the numbers all you want, you've got to look at each specific player individually and make a judgement call. And for all the background work being done, the situation they ultimately land in may have just as large of an effect on their ultimate success in the NBA. A lot of this is weighing upsides too. A GM may know the 3 or 4 year college guy is pretty likely to become some kind of rotation player while the one and done kid has a 20% chance of making it but if he does hes at least a starter if not better. I can see plenty of GMs going for the risky guy, as the safe bet isn't a difference maker in the scheme of things.

But to add to the argument, I think a lot of these guys would be wasting time staying any longer in college. What would Anthony Davis have to gain returning to Kentucky? He dominated as a freshman. Continuing to shit on inferior talent isn't going to help him as much as spending the early years of his career developing against better talent. But you get plenty of guys who don't dominate the NCAA but were highly touted prospects and are very talented kids. Conventional wisdom says those guys need more time in college to get the mental part of the game down, to grow into being a dominant player before moving to the next level. They usually leave early anyway and ride the pine somewhere. Some drop and end up on good teams with strong cultures a la Avery Bradley or Lance Stevenson or Eric Bledsoe. A lot of sort of disappear into the abyss though and you look back and wonder what they could have done if they stayed in college 3 years. Also look at guys like Blake Griffin or Harrison Barnes who didn't have great freshman years but stayed just the one extra year in college. They still came out very young and with big potential, but they had some extra polish that likely helped them contribute as rookies despite still being raw.

And yeah, as an 18 year old I absolutely thought I was a legitimate adult and pretty smart and mature. I'm 23 now and looking back at myself then, I was a complete fugging moron and still a child. And lets be honest, a lot of these guys come from poverty, single parent homes, from the hood, didn't take education seriously, probably have a highly inflated sense of self and a lot of hangers-on influencing them with agendas that aren't in their best interest. I think this is a big reason why a lot of these kids that go to NBA wastelands completely flame out while the ones who go to good teams with strong leadership and culture eventually pan out.

 

[jlprk]

Denny's logic is irrefutable. I believe that a 12-year-old would spend his million more slowly than a 30-year-old. The NBA should have an upper age limit of 16.

 

[magnifier661]

Nobody gets drunk on college campuses.

Nope.

Nada.

Nobody.

No one.

Drinking age laws are blue laws. If you care to look up what that means.

Turning 18 doesn't make anyone an adult. it is no measure of maturity in the least.

Nice strawman Denny! LMAO @ you always complaining about strawman when you use it all the time. Anyway, is underage drinking illegal? If a student is caught drinking, they could be arrested, no?

And to further expose your "straw man"; a person can speed, but that doesn't mean they aren't breaking the law. They just haven't been caught.

 

[Denny Crane]

Nice strawman Denny! LMAO @ you always complaining about strawman when you use it all the time. Anyway, is underage drinking illegal? If a student is caught drinking, they could be arrested, no?

And to further expose your "straw man"; a person can speed, but that doesn't mean they aren't breaking the law. They just haven't been caught.

I guess going to college to learn to drink responsibly is what the drinking age nonsense is really about. It's no strawman. You brought up the drinking age thing, not me.

I dont know what you're trying to prove because you make so little sense.

 

[magnifier661]

The thing with the draft is its not a science and never will be, as much as everyone wishes they could master it. You can analyze the numbers all you want, you've got to look at each specific player individually and make a judgement call. And for all the background work being done, the situation they ultimately land in may have just as large of an effect on their ultimate success in the NBA. A lot of this is weighing upsides too. A GM may know the 3 or 4 year college guy is pretty likely to become some kind of rotation player while the one and done kid has a 20% chance of making it but if he does hes at least a starter if not better. I can see plenty of GMs going for the risky guy, as the safe bet isn't a difference maker in the scheme of things.

But to add to the argument, I think a lot of these guys would be wasting time staying any longer in college. What would Anthony Davis have to gain returning to Kentucky? He dominated as a freshman. Continuing to shit on inferior talent isn't going to help him as much as spending the early years of his career developing against better talent. But you get plenty of guys who don't dominate the NCAA but were highly touted prospects and are very talented kids. Conventional wisdom says those guys need more time in college to get the mental part of the game down, to grow into being a dominant player before moving to the next level. They usually leave early anyway and ride the pine somewhere. Some drop and end up on good teams with strong cultures a la Avery Bradley or Lance Stevenson or Eric Bledsoe. A lot of sort of disappear into the abyss though and you look back and wonder what they could have done if they stayed in college 3 years.

And yeah, as an 18 year old I absolutely thought I was a legitimate adult and pretty smart and mature. I'm 23 now and looking back at myself then, I was a complete fugging moron and still a child. And lets be honest, a lot of these guys come from poverty, single parent homes, from the hood, didn't take education seriously, probably have a highly inflated sense of self and a lot of hangers-on influencing them with agendas that aren't in their best interest. I think this is a big reason why a lot of these kids that go to NBA wastelands completely flame out while the ones who go to good teams with strong leadership and culture eventually pan out.

Well said! repp'd. And as I pointed out on the other thread, there are players that can handle the pressure of coming out early, but college experience can help them with the challenges and pressures of the NBA.

I too thought I was an adult when I was 18. Looking back, I didn't even start growing up until I was 25