OT NBA season suspended & NCAA cancelling all sports for coronavirus

[GrandpaBlaze]

With all the NBA games on TNT canceled, I have a solution: Show more episodes of "Bones"!!!

With new episodes examining why people are dying from Covid-19 and finding a cure???

 

[Chris Craig]

With new episodes examining why people are dying from Covid-19 and finding a cure???

And one of the main characters won't make it out alive!!!!

 

[wizenheimer]

He may have been wrong. But the vast majority are still the elderly and/or people with compromised respiratory conditions. These figures are being updated all the time, but the WHO as of a week ago had these figures:

"Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39."

ok then....let's say 77 million people get COVID-19 in the USA before a vaccine is available. Let's say about 15% of each age you mentioned get the virus. That would mean that of people under 60, there could be 250,000 deaths using the rates you posted. Multiply that by 20 and you could have 5 million people under 60 die by this virus world wide

do I think it will get that bad? probably not...but some experts are expecting close to those kinds of number if we can't flatten the curves. Sly posted a video of an expert predicting 48 million hospitalizations. An expert testified in a close door session in congress there could be 70-150 million Americans infected. That seems ridiculous until you consider that 60-70 million Americans can contract the flu some years....and we have vaccines for flu...not for COVID-19

I think limiting crowds is a good idea, and sporting events are crown-intense

 

[THE HCP]

 

[THE HCP]

Got word the Grizz are able to get a charter and leave PDX today as well.

 

[THE HCP]

 

[Chris Craig]

Disneyland closed. This shit is real

 

[BigGameDamian]

I'm really surprised the WWE and UFC haven't done anything yet?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

He may have been wrong. But the vast majority are still the elderly and/or people with compromised respiratory conditions. These figures are being updated all the time, but the WHO as of a week ago had these figures:

"Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39."

We have 94,837 ICU beds in the United States. These beds have a normal occupancy rate of 65-80%. Also with the limited availability of coronavirus tests, patients are being seen in emergency rooms and not being tested. If they are finally tested emergency room personnel have already been exposed and have to be removed from patient care.

I know, old people, who needs them, they cost us money, yadda yadda. But, it would not take much to overwhelm our critical and frontline emergency medical personnel in this country. That means not having the beds and staff available to treat not only people with the coronavirus but the people who regularly occupy the 65-80% of the ICU beds.

Yes, so far the coronavirus is not as harmful to young people as it is to the olds. But that doesn't mean that it can't have a very serious and negative effect on our entire healthcare system.

 

[TBpup]

ok then....let's say 77 million people get COVID-19 in the USA before a vaccine is available. Let's say about 15% of each age you mentioned get the virus. That would mean that of people under 60, there could be 250,000 deaths using the rates you posted. Multiply that by 20 and you could have 5 million people under 60 die by this virus world wide

do I think it will get that bad? probably not...but some experts are expecting close to those kinds of number if we can't flatten the curves. Sly posted a video of an expert predicting 48 million hospitalizations. An expert testified in a close door session in congress there could be 70-150 million Americans infected. That seems ridiculous until you consider that 60-70 million Americans can contract the flu some years....and we have vaccines for flu...not for COVID-19

I think limiting crowds is a good idea, and sporting events are crown-intense

"Let's say"? So far there are around 128,000 confirmed cases. https://corona.help/ So "let's say" there are 77,000,000 people that get C-19? So a 601% increase of current cases? Then go through the rest of your numbers and "multiply that by 20"?

I realize your love of stats, but that seems a bit of an overreach. Going from a current 4718 deaths to 5,000,000? Then again, if it is not an overreach, it won't really matter will it?

 

[blazerfan11]

It seems to me that drastically increasing testing would be the first priority but I haven't heard anything from our leader about ramping up the production of the test kits.

 

[THE HCP]

 

[SlyPokerDog]

It seems to me that drastically increasing testing would be the first priority but I haven't heard anything from our leader about ramping up the production of the test kits.

CDC admits they have only completed 70 coronavirus tests THIS WEEK - despite Trump promising MILLIONS more

• In the last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ran just 70 coronavirus tests in its labs
• 54 tests were completed on March 5 and 16 tests were completed on March 6 - and no tests were run between March 7 and March 10
• This is despite promises from the Trump administration that millions of test kits would be distributed by next week
• In the US, there are more than 1,400 confirmed cases and 39 people have died
• Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...mits-completed-77-coronavirus-tests-WEEK.html

 

[Blazers Roy]

Seriously man, what the fuck?!

 

[JoshuaHall]

ugh, that guy who posted that 55 thing was wrong. There have been plenty of deaths of people in their 40s in Italy, without some of the risk factors or pre-existing conditions.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/italy-elderly-population-coronavirus-risk-covid-19

at one point it was true, I realize things changed rather rapidly over there though.

but you get the point, and if you don’t, you’re being purposefully obtuse.

the mortality rate for old people is FAR greater than that of younger people.

in fact, if you remove the mortality rate from older people and look at the mortality rate for younger people, it’s not that bad (in comparison to other things)!! Can’t stress that enough.

 

[JoshuaHall]

I don't think you're correct in your numbers

but more than that...WTF??? Yeah, let's not worry about it because people over 55 are close to dead already...they don't matter

and I'm pretty sure you didn't mean it that way, but being over 55 myself I read that stuff about the 55 age and thought...wow



I might be wrong about this but the problem I see with that chart is one of testing rates. If Italy was testing at a rate of 15 times that of the US, that chart could be way off

...

Are you serious?

*Breathes deeply*

Not even going to dignify the bold with a response. That’s just, uh, I’m not sure about reading comprehension on that one. If that’s SERIOUSLY what you got from that comment though, I apologize, as that’s not even CLOSE to what I meant (Hey Mom, hey Dad, hey grandpa, grandma; uncles, aunts... FUCK YOU!!! I hate 55+ people supposedly)

and yea, my numbers are currently incorrect, but at one time... it was the case, not like I was just making stuff up.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/italy-elderly-population-coronavirus-risk-covid-19

 

[BigGameDamian]

These idiots on NBA radio sound like there listening to Fox news. I thought they were smarter than this.

 

[Minstrel]

By the way, strangest NBA season ever. China; Stern & Kobe die; new All Star rules, 30 day minimum ban.

Huh, I had no idea that David Stern died at the start of the year.

 

[PDXFonz]

View attachment 30170

CDC admits they have only completed 70 coronavirus tests THIS WEEK - despite Trump promising MILLIONS more

• In the last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ran just 70 coronavirus tests in its labs
• 54 tests were completed on March 5 and 16 tests were completed on March 6 - and no tests were run between March 7 and March 10
• This is despite promises from the Trump administration that millions of test kits would be distributed by next week
• In the US, there are more than 1,400 confirmed cases and 39 people have died
• Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...mits-completed-77-coronavirus-tests-WEEK.html

*redacted political comment*
*insert witty response here*

 

[noknobs]

Very thoughtful of KLove. I hope other players help the HCP's affected by this.

 

[wizenheimer]

"Let's say"? So far there are around 128,000 confirmed cases. https://corona.help/ So "let's say" there are 77,000,000 people that get C-19? So a 601% increase of current cases? Then go through the rest of your numbers and "multiply that by 20"?

I realize your love of stats, but that seems a bit of an overreach. Going from a current 4718 deaths to 5,000,000? Then again, if it is not an overreach, it won't really matter will it?

ok then:

"Congress' in-house doctor told Capitol Hill staffers at a close-door meeting this week that he expects 70-150 million people in the U.S. — roughly a third of the country — to contract the coronavirus, two sources briefed on the meeting tell Axios.

Why it matters: That estimate, which is in line with other projections from health experts, underscores the potential seriousness of this outbreak even as the White House has been downplaying its severity in an attempt to keep public panic at bay.

Dr. Brian Monahan, the attending physician of the U.S. Congress, told Senate chiefs of staff, staff directors, administrative managers and chief clerks from both parties on Tuesday that they should prepare for the worst, and offered advice on how to remain healthy.

Forecasting the spread of a virus is difficult, and the range of realistic possibilities is wide.

• But other estimates, including statistical modeling from Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, have said that somewhere between 20% and 60% of adults worldwide might catch the virus."

https://www.axios.com/congressional...ses-fec69e77-1515-4fbc-8340-c53b65c22c53.html

20% of the world's population is 1.5 billion with a b; 60% is 4.5 billion. The math is pretty simple, even if the mortality rate falls to 1%

********************************************************
paraphrasing:

"this could be 10-15 times worse than the worst seasonal flu we see....we conservatively estimate this could require 4.8 million hospitalizations, 96 million cases, 480,000 deaths (in U.S.)".

starts about at the 1:30 mark:



https://www.1011now.com/content/new...demiology-numbers-for-COVID-19-568688461.html
*********************************************************

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that up to 70% of the German population will likely contract the coronavirus, suggesting that the government’s priority is about “slowing its spread.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/angela-merkel-most-people-will-get-the-coronavirus.html
************************************************************************

"Experts have produced forecasts of likely numbers of infections and serious illnesses as well as death tolls, on the basis of what is known about the novel coronavirus and how past epidemics have played out. They suggest that the United States — which has surpassed 1,000 confirmed novel-coronavirus infections and 30 deaths — must prepare for a potentially historic pandemic.

A forecast produced last month by Professor James Lawler of the University of Nebraska Medical Center on behalf of the American Hospital Association, for example, put the potential death toll at hundreds of thousands if efforts to mitigate the epidemic fail.

Another forecast, developed by former CDC director Tom Frieden at the nonprofit organization Resolve to Save Lives, found that deaths in the United States could range widely, depending on what percentage of the population becomes infected and how lethal the disease proves to be. Frieden, who oversaw the U.S. response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the 2014 Ebola epidemic and the 2016 Zika epidemic, says that in a worst-case scenario, but one that is not implausible, half the U.S. population would become infected and more than 1 million people would die.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...177e0a-63b4-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html
***************************************************

The case fatality rate for covid-19 — higher than 3 percent so far globally, according to the WHO — is an evolving number that depends on multiple factors, including access to robust health care. The actual lethality of the virus is hard to determine because many people have mild or no symptoms and are never formally diagnosed as having the virus. Some covid-19 deaths may also have been missed, possibly mistaken as flu-related.

In his Capitol Hill testimony, Fauci said that a plausible covid-19 fatality rate could be 1 percent. That, he said, is 10 times as lethal as seasonal influenza. He was clear: This is more dangerous than the flu.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...177e0a-63b4-11ea-acca-80c22bbee96f_story.html

************************************************************

I didn't pull those numbers out of my ass TB. Now, those estimates can be viewed as worst case scenarios, but most best case scenarios are still pretty scary

 

[Wade Garrett]

Once the NBA goes, it all goes. Plus Tom Hanks got it...

Hey man...if Keith Richards gets it and dies, we all die.
Aside from that, he should outlive us all anyway...
(feeble attempt at humor..)

 

[e_blazer]

What’s next for the NBA:

“The league could always move back the start of the playoffs, which would push back other key events, such as the draft, start of free agency and the Las Vegas Summer League. And to expedite the playoffs, the league could go back to best-of-5 series in the first round.

The league and its teams could lose hundreds of millions of dollars on top of the "less than $400 million," Silver said the league is expected to lose over the China fallout. There could be a significant impact on basketball-related income, which sets the salary cap for the 2020-21 season. It would be even more significant if the NBA lost TV revenue from no playoff games.”

 

[Reep]

View attachment 30170

CDC admits they have only completed 70 coronavirus tests THIS WEEK - despite Trump promising MILLIONS more

• In the last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ran just 70 coronavirus tests in its labs
• 54 tests were completed on March 5 and 16 tests were completed on March 6 - and no tests were run between March 7 and March 10
• This is despite promises from the Trump administration that millions of test kits would be distributed by next week
• In the US, there are more than 1,400 confirmed cases and 39 people have died
• Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...mits-completed-77-coronavirus-tests-WEEK.html

From CDC:

Number of specimens tested for the virus that causes COVID-19 by CDC labs (N=3,791) and U.S. public health laboratories* (N=7,288) by date of specimen collection†

But never let facts get in the way of a good narrative or "truth" as Joe would say.

 

[wizenheimer]

...

Are you serious?

*Breathes deeply*

Not even going to dignify the bold with a response. That’s just, uh, I’m not sure about reading comprehension on that one. If that’s SERIOUSLY what you got from that comment though, I apologize, as that’s not even CLOSE to what I meant (Hey Mom, hey Dad, hey grandpa, grandma; uncles, aunts... FUCK YOU!!! I hate 55+ people supposedly)

and yea, my numbers are currently incorrect, but at one time... it was the case, not like I was just making stuff up.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/italy-elderly-population-coronavirus-risk-covid-19

well, I did say I didn't believe you meant it that way so relax

but you said:

"the youngest person to die in Italy was 55 with chronic issues.

let’s not act like the mortality rate is the same across the board

odds are, for most people, it’s the flu."

and followed it up by saying:

"the mortality rate for old people is FAR greater than that of younger people.

in fact, if you remove the mortality rate from older people and look at the mortality rate for younger people, it’s not that bad (in comparison to other things)!! Can’t stress that enough."

The mortality rates for flu hover around 0.1%. That number includes people over 65 who have a much higher mortality rate. About 60% of deaths from flu are people over 65. That has to mean the mortality rates for people under 60 have to be well below 0.1%....likely in the 0.01-o.03% range. TBpup posted a breakdown of C-19 that said people in their 50's have a 1.3% mortality rate. People in the 40's have a 0.4% rate, and people 39 and younger have a 0.2% rate. So it easily could be that the mortality rate from covid-19 for people under 40 is 10-30 times higher than for the flu. So the flu comparisons seem way out of wack, at least as far as death rates go. It might be that the multiple of mortality rates C-19 has over the flu bt age bracket are relatively equivalent. I just haven't found flu mortality numbers broken down by age group yet

so no, it's almost certainly not the case that "odds are, for most people, it’s the flu"

 

[THE HCP]

 

[THE HCP]

 

[BigGameDamian]

If it is only 30 days it will be without fans. Unfortunately there's no way the Coronavirus goes away in that time.

 

[BigGameDamian]

 

[SlyPokerDog]