Neil Olshey trade deadline thoughts

[tlongII]

Good book also says "put on wings as Eagles and Soar above the clouds" in other words, have a great attitude in all things!

What is this "good book" you're referring to?

 

[wizenheimer]

im sure its been discussed here but supposedly Cleveland has said Kevin Love is getting interest from a team "thats not a destination city" but has 2 stars. Sounds like Portland. Head this on Rip City radio this AM.

Portland only has 1 star so then....OKC?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Portland only has 1 star so then....OKC?

How dare you say Nurkic isn't a star!!

 

[BigGameDamian]

I want to know who voted for "I love all these guys; I can't part with any of them!"

 

[Scalma]

I want to know who voted for "I love all these guys; I can't part with any of them!"

What’s up

 

[wizenheimer]

I'll only bash Olshey one time: he sucks...should have been fired long ago...king of snake oil....hate him

with that out of the way, I have a hard time believing Jody Allen and the Vulcans would give a green light to any trade that would substantially increase luxury tax this season. And an even harder time thinking they would green light a move that would ratchet way up Portland's future tax exposure. That's why I really doubt the Blazers have interest in Love. That could end up as by far the biggest albatross contract in the league if Love's body ends up as durable as Chandler Parsons....and it seems headed that way

If, because of tax, the odds of Aminu being re-signed are low, then he should be shopped. Too often Portland has allowed players to leave without compensation. I would not be surprised if Aminu was moved. I would be surprised if Harkless was because any prospective buyer will be too worried about his knee

one final thing: I said I'd only bash Olshey once, but that didn't mean in this thread....I meant only in this one post. I'm not cutting off a big part of my fun

 

[illmatic99]

Where is the "I can't believe I still have this job" option?

I don't think this can be topped.

Neil has no vision. Nor does he have the ability to execute one. I think he'll say he tried to land someone big and drop a few hints to Woj to make it seem like he's doing his best and then eventually end up with a salary dump as his big move.

I hate his small market copout. Like, mfer this franchise existed and thrived for decades before you showed up. Bob Whitsitt never complained about the market and it was arguably tougher to build a contending team in his era than it is now.

 

[hoopsjock]

I want to know who voted for "I love all these guys; I can't part with any of them!"

This is a thread for what you THINK Olshey is THINKING. Being as you always joke about players being untouchable wouldn't you also vote that way?

 

[CupWizier]

I don't think this can be topped.

Neil has no vision. Nor does he have the ability to execute one. I think he'll say he tried to land someone big and drop a few hints to Woj to make it seem like he's doing his best and then eventually end up with a salary dump as his big move.

I hate his small market copout. Like, mfer this franchise existed and thrived for decades before you showed up. Bob Whitsitt never complained about the market and it was arguably tougher to build a contending team in his era than it is now.

Bob Whitsit? The constraint that Whitsit operated under is completely different to today;s constraints. it was way easier to build a contender back then as long as you had an owner with deep pockets. Nowdays, deep pockets has many limitations. No comparison.

 

[blue9]

Dumping Leonard frees up the full MLE and makes resigning guys like Aminu and Layman easier. And I think the odds are greater that the pick lands somewhere in the 20s. But I’m sure they would add protections to it anyway in this theoretical scenario. I’m much more interested in adding a solid veteran than some non lottery rookie that won’t play.

Giving away a draft pick (and Meyers) in order to re-sign Aminu would be beyond dumb. Layman won't get paid much, so keeping him shouldn't be an issue. That draft pick would be much better spent on a draft-day trade, than in dumping Meyers to help re-sign Aminu.

 

[blue9]

I don't see how you trade for him unless it's at a deep, deep discount. Moe/Leonard for Love/Frye?

Not even close to being cheap enough. Anything that doesn't include Turner doesn't make any sense. And even then I doubt I'd/we'd be interested in trading for Love.

Only way I consider trading for Love is:
Turner+Aminu for Love+Draft Pick

 

[wizenheimer]

Giving away a draft pick (and Meyers) in order to re-sign Aminu would be beyond dumb. Layman won't get paid much, so keeping him shouldn't be an issue. That draft pick would be much better spent on a draft-day trade, than in dumping Meyers to help re-sign Aminu.

yeah, I tend to agree and I'm sick of Meyers

I'd use a lottery-protected 1st to dump Turner for an expiring. Clearing 18M in salary off next year's cap would be worth losing a 21st pick. And I'd use a 1st as part of a trade package for a significant upgrade

 

[TBpup]

Olshey will pass along to Woj that he is trying. Woj will post how active Portland is. Olshey will end up doing nothing but a minor move.

Olshey will then say how hard he tried but there just wasn't anything out there....regardless of what other teams did.

(Version 3.0)

 

[hoopsjock]

I believe the last 2 seasons the mindset at the deadline is that if the team isn't doing well enough near the deadline that moves will be made to save salary/tax. The 13 game winning streak happened after the deadline last year otherwise they probably would've been buyers.

This year I think they took the same mind set into the season. Will the fact Paul Allen isn't around change their aggressiveness? I'd have to think it doesn't help. They're in a weird spot this year being 4 games out of 1st and the pack starting to distance themselves from the #9 seed which is also 4 games back. If the Blazers have a good January, which is looking likely, I think they will definitely try to be buyers. The key word there is try.

I still think that CJ and Collins are off limits unless it's a total no-brainer. Olshey is going to try to land a big time player using Aminu, Turner, Leonard, and Harkless with picks and Swangian, Simons, and Trent as sweetener. This mind set is why we haven't gotten much done since the Nurk trade. Those players simply don't have any value. Taking on a really bad contract like Love or Griffin is pretty much the only way any of those guys are moveable. That is why I think Olshey will settle for a guy like Love because he can spin it as bringing in an All-Star with a championship. If a trade isn't available for Love or Griffin I think they'll simply be boring again and wait for next year when mayyyybe those guys would be able to be traded. I'd also be surprised if a small move isn't made to open up a roster spot similar to what Houston just did with Michael Carter-Williams by giving away Swanigan, Stauskas, or Baldwin.

Once again, this is just my guess on what Olshey's mindset is.

 

[Stevenson]

You forgot one:

"I'll make a wild swing at a vaguely available superstar, miss, and then complain that small market teams can't compete."

 

[Scalma]

Olshey will pass along to Woj that he is trying. Woj will post how active Portland is. Olshey will end up doing nothing but a minor move.

Olshey will then say how hard he tried but there just wasn't anything out there....regardless of what other teams did.

(Version 3.0)

LOOK BROOKE THE PHONES WERE QUIET *olshey laugh*

 

[hoopsjock]

yeah, I tend to agree and I'm sick of Meyers

I'd use a lottery-protected 1st to dump Turner for an expiring. Clearing 18M in salary off next year's cap would be worth losing a 21st pick. And I'd use a 1st as part of a trade package for a significant upgrade

Turner, Swanigan, and a 2019 1st (lottery protected) for Shumpert if the Kings would do it could be a nice move for us. Shumpert can slide in for Harkless if his knee continues to be an issue, we open up a roster spot for the buyout market, clear a ton of salary this summer, and get under the luxury tax this season. I don't like giving up picks for salary dumps but this kind of trade I could definitely get behind.

 

[riverman]

Since Paul is gone I'd have to say Neil will do whatever Dame wants at this point....even Stotts takes a backseat to Dame...until Dame starts lobbying like Lebron does....we'll probably not make a major move this season would be my guess. We'll just be doing the development game with projects until we shed some salary

 

[Scalma]

Giving away a draft pick (and Meyers) in order to re-sign Aminu would be beyond dumb. Layman won't get paid much, so keeping him shouldn't be an issue. That draft pick would be much better spent on a draft-day trade, than in dumping Meyers to help re-sign Aminu.

Who knows how much Layman is going to get paid, he’s about to get a big opportunity since it’s just a matter of time before Harkless gets shut down imo.

And you didn’t mention maybe the most attractive part of dumping Meyers; flexibility. The full MLE. Also, Portland has ten players under contract at about $126M for next season, and that’s not including Curry and his option. Tax line is evidently going to be $132M. Dumping Meyers (or Moe or Turner) makes all kinds of sense.

 

[illmatic99]

Turner, Swanigan, and a 2019 1st (lottery protected) for Shumpert if the Kings would do it could be a nice move for us. Shumpert can slide in for Harkless if his knee continues to be an issue, we open up a roster spot for the buyout market, clear a ton of salary this summer, and get under the luxury tax this season. I don't like giving up picks for salary dumps but this kind of trade I could definitely get behind.

Explain this rationale for me. We suffer through ET for three horrendous years and when the light is finally at the end of the tunnel with his contract and he has just one year left, you want to add assets to give him away?

Shumpert blows-- I'd rather have Jake play all those minutes.

Is getting under the tax that important?

Edit, fwiw, I think our pick is our fourth best asset after Dame/Nurk/CJ. That's not something you use in a salary dump.

 

[twobullz]

If the concern is the Blazers are going to stay under the tax line or try to look better for a future buyer why would they add Love? He never plays a entire season, His contract is worse then any combination of Meyers ET or Moe and it is for 4 years.

 

[blue9]

And you didn’t mention maybe the most attractive part of dumping Meyers; flexibility. The full MLE. Also, Portland has ten players under contract at about $126M for next season, and that’s not including Curry and his option. Tax line is evidently going to be $132M. Dumping Meyers (or Moe or Turner) makes all kinds of sense.

I don't find it attractive. Until we make it to the WCF we will not be a player in free agency - whether we have the mini-MLE or full MLE is meaningless, IMO. I'm not at all concerned about Meyers (or Moe) making $10M for another season. We could do much worse, and given Neil's track record I don't want to take that chance. Also, Curry can get bent.

We've given away too many assets as it is...or paid to have them taken away! I'm not about to give away more assets. IMO trades are our only way to improve the team - so use what few assets we have (draft picks essentially) to make trades rather than to dump (somewhat useful) players.

 

[wizenheimer]

Portland has ten players under contract at about $126M for next season, and that’s not including Curry and his option

I haven't been able to find that Curry has an option for next season. BB Insiders and BBREF both say it was a 1 year deal. Bbinsiders lists his potential QO as 3.35M but I believe that just the max 120% of this year's salary Portland can offer Curry as a non-Bird free agent. Maybe I'm missing something

 

[hoopsjock]

Explain this rationale for me. We suffer through ET for three horrendous years and when the light is finally at the end of the tunnel with his contract and he has just one year left, you want to add assets to give him away?

Shumpert blows-- I'd rather have Jake play all those minutes.

Is getting under the tax that important?

Edit, fwiw, I think our pick is our fourth best asset after Dame/Nurk/CJ. That's not something you use in a salary dump.

Was my list not good enough?

Basically it comes down to this: Dumping Turner and Swanigan saves us almost $20 million this summer. That clears the way to be able to use the Full-MLE and the Bi-Annual Exception. It comes down to whether using those avenues helps the team better than having the 1st round pick and the Tax-MLE (if ownership is even willing to go into the tax). We'd go from having one of the worst cap situations to a somewhat manageable one. It's probably the difference between this team having a chance to build a better roster this summer or going all next year with basically the same roster and no upgrades. I say this once again as someone who extremely overvalues picks, but is that pick worth sticking with this team for another year and a half? Obviously if Olshey hit on the pick it also could change everything but do you have confidence that Stotts would develop that pick any time soon to help the team next year?

I also don't think Shumpert is a terrible stopgap for a half of a season. He's not someone to build with long term but he can provide some minutes at SF.

 

[Scalma]

I haven't been able to find that Curry has an option for next season. BB Insiders and BBREF both say it was a 1 year deal. Bbinsiders lists his potential QO as 3.35M but I believe that just the max 120% of this year's salary Portland can offer Curry as a non-Bird free agent. Maybe I'm missing something

Yeah it’s weird.

This is from Woj:
Free-agent guard Seth Curry has agreed to a two-year, $5.6 million deal with the Portland Trail Blazers, league sources told ESPN.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23980041/seth-curry-portland-trail-blazers-agree-2-year-deal

Don’t know why it isn’t listed anywhere, but I also don’t think it was an honest mistake by Woj since I don’t believe those numbers were accidentally put in the article.

 

[hoopsjock]

If the concern is the Blazers are going to stay under the tax line or try to look better for a future buyer why would they add Love? He never plays a entire season, His contract is worse then any combination of Meyers ET or Moe and it is for 4 years.

Well in theory if they were just worried about this year and next year they could send out a little more money than they bring back with Love and it would actually be less salary for this year and next. They'd have to ignore the years after that though.

 

[illmatic99]

Was my list not good enough?

Basically it comes down to this: Dumping Turner and Swanigan saves us almost $20 million this summer. That clears the way to be able to use the Full-MLE and the Bi-Annual Exception. It comes down to whether using those avenues helps the team better than having the 1st round pick and the Tax-MLE (if ownership is even willing to go into the tax). We'd go from having one of the worst cap situations to a somewhat manageable one. It's probably the difference between this team having a chance to build a better roster this summer or going all next year with basically the same roster and no upgrades. I say this once again as someone who extremely overvalues picks, but is that pick worth sticking with this team for another year and a half? Obviously if Olshey hit on the pick it also could change everything but do you have confidence that Stotts would develop that pick any time soon to help the team next year?

I also don't think Shumpert is a terrible stopgap for a half of a season. He's not someone to build with long term but he can provide some minutes at SF.

I don't see the value in having the MLE for our team. Neil is absolutely terrible in free agency. He's somewhat adequate in drafts. And given his penchant to overpay for mediocrity, I'd rather let Neil hunt for value in the bargain bin as he has done in the past than let him play around with full MLE.

And besides, we'd pretty much get to your ideal financial situation in just one more year. No need to throw away one of the few liquid assets we have for that.

 

[Pinwheel1]

We need to be very careful with our first round draft picks. There is a lot of luck involved in the draft but you have to have a pick to have a chance to get lucky. What pick was Nikola Jokić....41? Do not include the pick unless you get a legitimate star back. Certainly not to shed a salary.

 

[hoopsjock]

I don't find it attractive. Until we make it to the WCF we will not be a player in free agency - whether we have the mini-MLE or full MLE is meaningless, IMO. I'm not at all concerned about Meyers (or Moe) making $10M for another season. We could do much worse, and given Neil's track record I don't want to take that chance. Also, Curry can get bent.

We've given away too many assets as it is...or paid to have them taken away! I'm not about to give away more assets. IMO trades are our only way to improve the team - so use what few assets we have (draft picks essentially) to make trades rather than to dump (somewhat useful) players.

Just a side note, as much as 49% of the NBA could potentially be free agents this summer. There are going to be some incredible values on some players regardless of the market. The Tax-MLE versus the Full-MLE might be the difference between adding a player like Curry last summer or adding a player like Tyreke Evans, Danny Green, Markieff Morris, or Taj Gibson type.

I'm not saying you're right or wrong, but I think this summer is going to be a weird one that won't follow conventional free agencies of the past.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

#anthonydavisorbustfams