Next year we will be a Powerhouse

[Natebishop3]

I've been lurking for a while but this thread has given me enough motivation to register.

Everyone seems to think we have a hole in the backup power forward spot. I see a lot of people wanting an enforcer type in the position. While at the moment it's true, we have some space for that kind of player I think by next year that space is going to be reduced quickly because we already have the guy to fill it in. Pryzbilla.

Oden's going to figure out the foul thing, I wouldn't be surprised if we see him on the floor an average of 30 minutes a game next season, that leaves 18 for Joel. How much time is this theoretical back PF going to get? With Aldridge at 36 minutes a game that leaves 12 for this enforcer character. Sliding Joel in with Oden for 12 minutes a game is the logical solution. With Outlaw there for a smaller lineup and in case of foul trouble this lineup seems the logical choice for our future. It may take longer for Oden to get reliable so an interim player could be useful for a season, but it's not worth dumping major resources for.

Having three high quality guys share the 4 and 5 spots is going to keep them all happy with playing time and make the most of what we have without giving them too many minutes. The danger with this plan is Oden or Joel foul trouble. It's going to happen, but I think the overall effect will be worth it. It wouldn't hurt to have an extra decent big behind them just in case, but they should only be seeing a bit of foul trouble time and garbage minutes.

As far as small forward goes Batum has too much potential to give up on and Outlaw has proven he can be a second threat in crunch time, and is key to player chemistry. He's also satisfied with a role off the bench, something not many SF's of his quality are going to tolerate. That leaves Webster. We've got outside shooters, we've got lock down defenders. Unless Webster comes out of the gate as a leading most improved player candidate he's just not as good of an option as the other two.

Unless the blazers start a Blake-Rudy-Roy rotation at the 1-2 with Webster taking a few spillover minutes at 2, and Outlaw spends some time every game at the 4 I don't know how that many players can share minutes at the 3.

Nice first post! Repped. Welcome to the fold

With that said, I'm not sure I agree with you 100%. While you are correct, there will be less minutes once Oden is finally ready to assume the starting position, I don't think the minutes will necessarily go to Joel. The problem is this:

1) Joel is not a power forward.
A) He is not an offensive threat.
B) He isn't going to be effective guarding power forwards most of the time.
2) Joel deserves starters minutes.
A) Unless we can continue to give him 25ish minutes per game, he is going to be wasted.
B) When Oden is ready, we should really consider trading Joel. I know it's not popular, but Joel deserves to start somewhere.

I think we would benefit longterm to have a guy who is a powerforward/center who can swing between the two positions. Joel is a center. He isn't a scoring center. We need a power forward who can play solid defense, rebound, block shots, and get cleanup baskets. Maybe hit the 10-12 foot jumper. Someone like PJ Brown (only younger).

Also, I think Joel is eventually going to have to be traded. If everything goes to plan, Oden will be playing 35-38+ minutes per night. Aldridge is going to be playing 37+ minutes per night. Joel deserves more than that. I realize he is great, and he is the kind of guy you want, but he could be starting for someone. Maybe Joel is willing to stick around and take a reduced role to win, and I'm all for that, but I'm not so sure that's the case. We'll have to see.

 

[Minstrel]

1) Joel is not a power forward.
A) He is not an offensive threat.
B) He isn't going to be effective guarding power forwards most of the time.

Agreed that Przybilla isn't a power forward and would struggle to defend power forwards. However, for the 12 minutes a game that Aldridge rests, Portland could move Oden over to power forward and let Przybilla continue to play center.

Remember, in his pre-draft work-outs, Oden had measureables comparable to Aldridge's. He's a a crazy athletic specimen. That hasn't been so obvious this year, but I think it will be next year, when he's fully recovered from the microfracture surgery.

2) Joel deserves starters minutes.
A) Unless we can continue to give him 25ish minutes per game, he is going to be wasted.

If Joel got 30 minutes at center (with Oden getting 12 minutes at power forward and 18 minutes at center), he'd be getting plenty of minutes. As Oden plays more and more minutes, Przybilla will lose some...but even if you give Oden another 5 minutes at center, Przybilla gets 25. I don't think Oden should play much more than 35 minutes per game (in the regular season), in order to keep him fresh and healthy.

 

[gambitnut]

I've been lurking for a while but this thread has given me enough motivation to register.

Everyone seems to think we have a hole in the backup power forward spot. I see a lot of people wanting an enforcer type in the position. While at the moment it's true, we have some space for that kind of player I think by next year that space is going to be reduced quickly because we already have the guy to fill it in. Pryzbilla.

Oden's going to figure out the foul thing, I wouldn't be surprised if we see him on the floor an average of 30 minutes a game next season, that leaves 18 for Joel. How much time is this theoretical back PF going to get? With Aldridge at 36 minutes a game that leaves 12 for this enforcer character. Sliding Joel in with Oden for 12 minutes a game is the logical solution. With Outlaw there for a smaller lineup and in case of foul trouble this lineup seems the logical choice for our future. It may take longer for Oden to get reliable so an interim player could be useful for a season, but it's not worth dumping major resources for.

Having three high quality guys share the 4 and 5 spots is going to keep them all happy with playing time and make the most of what we have without giving them too many minutes. The danger with this plan is Oden or Joel foul trouble. It's going to happen, but I think the overall effect will be worth it. It wouldn't hurt to have an extra decent big behind them just in case, but they should only be seeing a bit of foul trouble time and garbage minutes.

As far as small forward goes Batum has too much potential to give up on and Outlaw has proven he can be a second threat in crunch time, and is key to player chemistry. He's also satisfied with a role off the bench, something not many SF's of his quality are going to tolerate. That leaves Webster. We've got outside shooters, we've got lock down defenders. Unless Webster comes out of the gate as a leading most improved player candidate he's just not as good of an option as the other two.

Unless the blazers start a Blake-Rudy-Roy rotation at the 1-2 with Webster taking a few spillover minutes at 2, and Outlaw spends some time every game at the 4 I don't know how that many players can share minutes at the 3.

First of all welcome! Nice post, I hope we see some more from you.

I agree that we don't need a banger at PF like so many seem to want, but for a slightly different reason. Our starting frontcourt features a banger and a player with shooting range. Our backup frontcourt, whether we put Outlaw or Frye at backup PF, features a banger and a player with shooting range. I see no reason to change that to three of four being bangers and just one player in the frontcourt with shooting range. I also disagree about Webster and Outlaw, Outlaw might be the better player right now, but he isn't the better SF, I'd much rather play him at backup PF and Webster at SF.

 

[gambitnut]

Nice first post! Repped. Welcome to the fold

With that said, I'm not sure I agree with you 100%. While you are correct, there will be less minutes once Oden is finally ready to assume the starting position, I don't think the minutes will necessarily go to Joel. The problem is this:

1) Joel is not a power forward.
A) He is not an offensive threat.
B) He isn't going to be effective guarding power forwards most of the time.
2) Joel deserves starters minutes.
A) Unless we can continue to give him 25ish minutes per game, he is going to be wasted.
B) When Oden is ready, we should really consider trading Joel. I know it's not popular, but Joel deserves to start somewhere.

I think we would benefit longterm to have a guy who is a powerforward/center who can swing between the two positions. Joel is a center. He isn't a scoring center. We need a power forward who can play solid defense, rebound, block shots, and get cleanup baskets. Maybe hit the 10-12 foot jumper. Someone like PJ Brown (only younger).

Also, I think Joel is eventually going to have to be traded. If everything goes to plan, Oden will be playing 35-38+ minutes per night. Aldridge is going to be playing 37+ minutes per night. Joel deserves more than that. I realize he is great, and he is the kind of guy you want, but he could be starting for someone. Maybe Joel is willing to stick around and take a reduced role to win, and I'm all for that, but I'm not so sure that's the case. We'll have to see.

I agree that Joel probably won't want to be our backup C forever, which is why I most want to draft a C to groom as a possible replacement, Mullens is my first choice. I do like the idea of trying a twin towers lineup a bit more next season though.

 

[oldmangrouch]

All this talk of the future raises an unpleasant point. It is widely believed that Stern and at least some of the owners have already decided there will be a lockout. (albeit maybe in 2010) They are prepared to shut the league down, even for a full season, if they can break the union.

Given that the NBA players' union is already a feeble lapdog, I find their attitude nothing short of irrational. If it happens, I honestly hope somebody puts a bullet in Stern's head. We are all talking about our bright future, when in 3 years the NBA as we know it may no longer exist!

 

[Ghost Pepper]

Trade Joel?????? Are you kidding me? Joel is the heart and anchor to our teams defense and unless I'm mistaking Oden has been hurt a little bit in his career. Could you imagine Oden going down again for a month with no JOEL?????? No playoffs and you can BAKE THAT! Joel goes nowhere unless you really want to see a soft defensive team that really will get pushed around. Joel should be here until he retires and I'm great with that! It's an amazing luxury to have two 7 foot centers that can get a ton of boards. I'd trade Martel, Sergio, Frye, maybe even Bayless before I'd even consider messing with our version of Lambeer!

BTW- Oden gets the ability to learn the game and develop his offensive moves because Joel can be there if he gets into foul trouble. Take that away and what do you have..... Frye backing up Oden? Hurts Odens development in a big way!!!!! NOT SMART!!!!!!!

Can't believe that all the boards Joel has given this team and defensive toughness and all the put back buckets he's gotten anyone on this board would want to trade him. Unreal!!

How about we see if Oden can make it through a whole season first huh?

 

[gambitnut]

Trade Joel?????? Are you kidding me? Joel is the heart and anchor to our teams defense and unless I'm mistaking Oden has been hurt a little bit in his career. Could you imagine Oden going down again for a month with no JOEL?????? No playoffs and you can BAKE THAT! Joel goes nowhere unless you really want to see a soft defensive team that really will get pushed around. Joel should be here until he retires and I'm great with that! It's an amazing luxury to have two 7 foot centers that can get a ton of boards. I'd trade Martel, Sergio, Frye, maybe even Bayless before I'd even consider messing with our version of Lambeer!

BTW- Oden gets the ability to learn the game and develop his offensive moves because Joel can be there if he gets into foul trouble. Take that away and what do you have..... Frye backing up Oden? Hurts Odens development in a big way!!!!! NOT SMART!!!!!!!

Can't believe that all the boards Joel has given this team and defensive toughness and all the put back buckets he's gotten anyone on this board would want to trade him. Unreal!!

How about we see if Oden can make it through a whole season first huh?

Joel can opt out of his contract after next season, even if he doesn't, his contact only runs one more season after that. Another team will be offer him more money than he is making, and/or a better chance at being a regular starter. Will Joel be content to continue to be loyal to the Blazers and be Oden's backup at the expense of his pocketbook and playing time? I doubt it. I think his days in Portland are numbered whether we trade him or not.

 

[Minstrel]

Joel can opt out of his contract after next season, even if he doesn't, his contact only runs one more season after that. Another team will be offer him more money than he is making, and/or a better chance at being a regular starter. Will Joel be content to continue to be loyal to the Blazers and be Oden's backup at the expense of his pocketbook and playing time? I doubt it.

Portland can go over the cap to match any offer another team makes, so if Portland wants him, there wouldn't be any hit to the pocketbook. He may leave anyway for a bigger role, but it depends on how he weighs that against liking being on the Blazers and being part of a winning team that he was at the start of.

If the money's equal, I think he'd stay with Portland. My recollection is that he turned more lucrative offers from the Pistons and Spurs the last time he was a free agent in order to stay with the Blazers, so clearly he likes being here.

 

[Ghost Pepper]

Joel is a Blazer!!! He loves Portland and this will be a championship team! Starting for more money for a crappy team and putting more wear on his body doesn't make much sense to me. Here he can play 25 mins a night, get national exposure and win a ring! He's also a leader on this team no doubt!!!

I may be wrong here but Joel is the starter now and I for one need to see Greg have a full, impressive healthy year before Joel isn't considered the starter in my eyes. That is no knock on ODEN at all! Our team is so much harder to beat having both of these guys.

 

[gambitnut]

Portland can go over the cap to match any offer another team makes, so if Portland wants him, there wouldn't be any hit to the pocketbook. He may leave anyway for a bigger role, but it depends on how he weighs that against liking being on the Blazers and being part of a winning team that he was at the start of.

If the money's equal, I think he'd stay with Portland. My recollection is that he turned more lucrative offers from the Pistons and Spurs the last time he was a free agent in order to stay with the Blazers, so clearly he likes being here.

He didn't turn down more lucrative offers to be here, other teams offered most or all of the MLE, we offered a contract using our Early Bird rights, which starts at the same level as the MLE, but allows for bigger raises. I know we will have the right so pay him more than any other team, but how much is he worth? If he opts out in 2010 and Minnesota misses out on the top free agents with their cap space and offers $6-7 million of it to Joel, as they have several very good PFs, but no true C, would he want to return to where he went to college and would we pay him more? I don't see him sticking around this time.

 

[Ghost Pepper]

The TWOLVES aren't going to win a championship before we win a few, that said..... I see Joel wanting to stick around for that! Don't You?

 

[gambitnut]

The TWOLVES aren't going to win a championship before we win a few, that said..... I see Joel wanting to stick around for that! Don't You?

That would be putting the good of the team and a team goal above money and his competitive ego. I'd like to think that he would do that, but in this day and age, no, I don't see many people putting championships above money and playing time.

 

[Minstrel]

If he opts out in 2010 and Minnesota misses out on the top free agents with their cap space and offers $6-7 million of it to Joel, as they have several very good PFs, but no true C, would he want to return to where he went to college and would we pay him more?

If Portland also offered him $6-7 million, I think he'd stay. It's not my money, but in terms of worth relative to other players, I think Przybilla is worth that. I don't think it would be a silly overpay.

 

[gambitnut]

If Portland also offered him $6-7 million, I think he'd stay. It's not my money, but in terms of worth relative to other players, I think Przybilla is worth that. I don't think it would be a silly overpay.

I like Joel, but I'm not sure that I'd pay him a ton more than he makes now. We can find other seven footers who rebound and play defense, maybe not as well as him, but still serviceable, for the MLE.

 

[Minstrel]

I like Joel, but I'm not sure that I'd pay him a ton more than he makes now. We can find other seven footers who rebound and play defense, maybe not as well as him, but still serviceable, for the MLE.

$6-7 million isn't much above the MLE. I'd pay slightly more to secure such a good big man. Many teams cycle through pretty overrated and overpaid big men, looking for a decent player off the bench. I wouldn't do something crazy like max Przybilla out, but I no other team would either. I'd pay single-digit millions per year for him, though.

 

[HOWIE]

$6-7 million isn't much above the MLE. I'd pay slightly more to secure such a good big man. Many teams cycle through pretty overrated and overpaid big men, looking for a decent player off the bench. I wouldn't do something crazy like max Przybilla out, but I don't think any other team would. I'd pay single-digit millions per year for him, though.

I agree, he has been a huge part of what the team has done this season. I'd hate to lose him while Oden is developing. Two big men are better than one.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I like Joel, but I'm not sure that I'd pay him a ton more than he makes now. We can find other seven footers who rebound and play defense, maybe not as well as him, but still serviceable, for the MLE.

Put this in perspective knob gobblers like Dan Gadzuric make around 6 million a year. Joel is a bargain.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

bump

 

[shamelessblazer]

I think the playoffs may give us a real glimpse of whether or not we can roll with Blake as the long term starter.

well we've answered that one now haven't we?

 

[PapaG]

well we've answered that one now haven't we?

Blake averaged 10 ppg/6 assists/4 rebs/1.5 TOs in 6 games against Houston, shot 49% from the field (42% from 3), and had a PER of 15, which put him just below Mike Bibby and Aaron Brooks and ahead of Derrick Rose, Rodney Stuckey, JJ Barrea, Mo Williams, Jason Terry, and Rafer Alston.

What question were you looking to have answered? Blake played fairly well in the playoffs. Chris Paul's PER was only 1 point above Blake's. Maybe New Orleans should get rid of Paul since he's their "franchise" player?

 

[shamelessblazer]

Blake averaged 10 ppg/6 assists/4 rebs/1.5 TOs in 6 games against Houston, shot 49% from the field (42% from 3), and had a PER of 15, which put him just below Mike Bibby and Aaron Brooks and ahead of Derrick Rose, Rodney Stuckey, JJ Barrea, Mo Williams, Jason Terry, and Rafer Alston.

What question were you looking to have answered? Blake played fairly well in the playoffs. Chris Paul's PER was only 1 point above Blake's. Maybe New Orleans should get rid of Paul since he's their "franchise" player?

Blake and (as a result) our entire offensive flow looked like total shit every game of the playoffs. His stats always masks his many weaknesses because he doesn't do anything that the defense doesn't totally give him (wide open shots, easy passes around the perimeter). The guy can't do any damn thing a PG's supposed to do. Run the break, penetrate, or make entry passes. He is a bad, undersized, shooting specialist.

 

[B-Roy]

Honestly...Blake played pretty well compared to most of the other players.

 

[PapaG]

Blake and (as a result) our entire offensive flow looked like total shit every game of the playoffs. His stats always masks his many weaknesses because he doesn't do anything that the defense doesn't totally give him (wide open shots, easy passes around the perimeter). The guy can't do any damn thing a PG's supposed to do. Run the break, penetrate, or make entry passes. He is a bad, undersized, shooting specialist.

In other words, the stats don't back up your criticism, so it's on to the opinion stage.

 

[shamelessblazer]

In other words, the stats don't back up your criticism, so it's on to the opinion stage.

Did you watch the games man? The national announcers were making fun of blake every single game. How about the stats on that shit-crazy three point airball? I wish there were "clutch" stats because combining that with his epic free throw outing would be a nice 'stat' to show how much he sucks.

 

[B-Roy]

Did you watch the games man? The national announcers were making fun of blake every single game. How about the stats on that shit-crazy three point airball? I wish there were "clutch" stats because combining that with his epic free throw outing would be a nice 'stat' to show how much he sucks.

To be fair, they were making fun of everyone not named "Roy" or "Aldridge".

Could it be that our failure in the playoffs was a result of the entire team and not just one player?

Hmm? ._.

 

[STOMP]

Portland can go over the cap to match any offer another team makes, so if Portland wants him, there wouldn't be any hit to the pocketbook. He may leave anyway for a bigger role, but it depends on how he weighs that against liking being on the Blazers and being part of a winning team that he was at the start of.

If the money's equal, I think he'd stay with Portland. My recollection is that he turned more lucrative offers from the Pistons and Spurs the last time he was a free agent in order to stay with the Blazers, so clearly he likes being here.

your memory is wrong here. The Blazer offer he went with was reported as both for more dollars annually and an extra year over what then the Pistons and Spurs offered. He went with the biggest contract he was offered so I wouldn't place too much faith in him having franchise loyalty. I'd imagine extra millions of dollars can help make most places bearable.

Back when Joel was a FA, I was surprised that the Bulls didn't get him as they had the capspace to sign him to an even bigger deal then Portland could offer (due to PatterNash's cap mismanagment) and had a glaring need in the middle for a rebound/defender. Instead they threw insane dollars at Ben Wallace who chose to leave a Pistons club he'd been with for 6 years seeing them rise from 32-50 in 2000-1 to NBA champs to join the Baby Bulls.

There are multiple examples to site of supposed working class hero type players (Brian Grant, Steve Nash) who show that cash is king when they're given a choice between it and loyalty to the franchise they play for and a winning siutation. Signing the largest deal possible helps boost the MLE up for other FAs as well. I suspect thats how players rationalize their loyalty.

STOMP

 

[BlazerCaravan]

For his next trick, STOMP will tell a small child Santa isn't real.

 

[LittleAlex]

Honestly...Blake played pretty well compared to most of the other players.

Oh how I wish this wasn't true.


But unfortunately it is.

 

[RickyRubio]

I would hate to see Joel go. I would also be comfortable paying him 6-8 mil a year, as long as the contract isn't too long. 3 years max with no option.

Blake is a fine PG. You guys are just looking for a scapegoat. Pick Oden if you want to blame the playoffs on someone. He played awful. But he is still young.

 

[Idog1976]

In other words, the stats don't back up your criticism, so it's on to the opinion stage.

Well wait a minute. Stats showed Z-bo to be an elite PF. Doesn't mean he helped the flow of the offense. Stats don't show everything.