(No April Fools) Bill Simmons sticks his nose in Greg Oden's business again

[chris_in_pdx]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/110401&sportCat=nba

18. Indiana Pacers
Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, Darren Collison, Tyler Hansbrough, Paul George, Brandon Rush and some summer cap space … not a bad foundation. That's two-thirds of a perennial playoff team. Still, it's a small-market team with short pockets; they're never signing a marquee free agent, which means they have to get creative and roll the dice. You know, with something like the following post-lockout deal: Hibbert and James Posey (expiring in 2012) in a sign-and-trade for Greg Oden and a future No. 1 pick.

Portland turns Oden into a solid 7-footer (Hibbert, past 2 months: 50% FG, 13.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.8 bpg) who can definitely stay on the court. Oden gets away from Portland (too much baggage, too many bad memories), goes home to Indiana (where he'll have the longest leash possible) and gets a fresh start. And the Pacers give him a four-year, $40 million extension and get their dice roll; if Oden stays healthy, they just stumbled onto a franchise center. How else would they get one? And can you think of anyone who needs a change of scenery more than Oden? I hope this happens. Uh-oh -- I think I just exploded the Blazer's Edge message board.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

If we could expand the deal such that we get Collison too, then I'm on board.

 

[¹²³]

I'm disappointed that he mentioned BE and not S2.

 

[oldguy]

Soccer Moms Unite!

Go Blazers

 

[THE HCP]

Fuck BE!

 

[Natebishop3]

Meh... I'd consider it, but I agree with Platypus.

 

[illmatic99]

I'm disappointed that he mentioned BE and not S2.

Hey it's the biggest Blazer board out there. Their editors actually have media passes that give them access to home games, practices, and press conferences.

I wonder if any other team has a message board/blog with that much traffic.

 

[Minstrel]

Portland turns Oden into a solid 7-footer (Hibbert, past 2 months: 50% FG, 13.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 1.8 bpg) who can definitely stay on the court.

A 7-footer who can stay on the court isn't exactly difference-making. While Przybilla was a nice enough player, it's not like the team is a younger Przybilla away from title contention.

And the Pacers give him a four-year, $40 million extension and get their dice roll; if Oden stays healthy, they just stumbled onto a franchise center. How else would they get one?

Indeed, how else. Whereas, Portland can surely get one very easily.

Bill Simmons does a great job explaining why you'd much rather have Oden than Hibbert. So I'll pass on the deal from Portland's point of view. If Oden never gets healthy, Portland isn't a title contender...so, they'd be in exactly the same situation as if they dealt him for Hibbert. However, if Oden does have healthy seasons, Portland probably is a title contender.

And, IMO, Collison doesn't change that calculus. Collison isn't as good as Andre Miller is now and Portland isn't a title contender now. While Collison has more years ahead, his ability level is not sufficient to elevate Portland higher than it is right now.

Such a deal probably increases Portland's floor, but decreases their ceiling. Since my focus is always on maximizing championship potential, rather than getting the highest win certainty, that's a bad trade-off to me.

 

[oldmangrouch]

You don't need a super-star center to win a title.

With Camby on his last legs, the team needs another competent big man. You can argue it isn't "the #1 priority", but it still needs to be dealt with. So does the long-term PG issue. You can't ignore these needs just because a super-duper-star isn't available. The holes still need to be plugged.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

lol on the front page it says "(No April Fools) Bill Simmons sticks his nose in Greg Oden's..."

 

[Minstrel]

You don't need a super-star center to win a title.

No, you don't and that wasn't my point. My point is that this team isn't a role-player or two from title contention. They're one more impact player away. Oden, if healthy, is an impact player. Neither Hibbert nor Collison is. So while Oden may not have a great chance at staying healthy, it's still above the 0% chance that a healthy Hibbert and Collison provide for another impact player.

As I said, this type of deal would increase the team's floor...they'd be more certain to win, say, 50 games and maybe a round of the playoffs. But it would reduce their ceiling, by locking them into a talent base pretty clearly short of championship-caliber IMO.

 

[chris_in_pdx]

Superstars win championships. There have only been three teams in over 40 years of NBA basketball to win without a true superstar (1977 Blazers, 1978 Bullets, 2004 Pistons), and even the '77 Blazers is iffy due to Walton, as is the '78 Bullets with Elvin Hayes and Wes Unseld.

Greg Oden has the tools to become a superstar in this league. To cut him loose would be a mistake. The Blazers have too much invested in him and the upside is too great.

 

[Draco]

You don't need a super-star center to win a title.

Well yes it doesn't have to be at center; but you do need a super-star to win a title.

 

[Rhal]

Well yes it doesn't have to be at center; but you do need a super-star to win a title.

Tends to be you need 2 super-stars to win a title. We have the making of one in LMA so Oden could be the other. (Parker was pretty much a SS the three he won with SA. The guy was just unstoppable when he penetrated and he could Penetrate on anyone. Probably why his wife left him).

 

[STOMP]

You don't need a super-star center to win a title.

for a smaller market in Stern's NBA, you need a guy who can move product nationally or he'll screw you with his refs. Oden is the only guy on the roster with the potential to do that as a truly dominant physical center is fascinating to the public like a heavy weight champ.

STOMP

 

[chris_in_pdx]

for a smaller market in Stern's NBA, you need a guy who can move product nationally or he'll screw you with his refs. Oden is the only guy on the roster with the potential to do that as a truly dominant physical center is fascinating to the public like a heavy weight champ.

You, sir, win the prize for the day for the flat-out truth.

 

[james3921]

anyone see the dude on blazersedge who claimed to have a friend who talked to mike conley sr (greg's agent) and got told that team oden is looking for "fresh start" somewhere else?

 

[oldmangrouch]

anyone see the dude on blazersedge who claimed to have a friend who talked to mike conley sr (greg's agent) and got told that team oden is looking for "fresh start" somewhere else?

I read that. I have no idea if it is true, but it wouldn't be surprising if it was.

 

[maxiep]

anyone see the dude on blazersedge who claimed to have a friend who talked to mike conley sr (greg's agent) and got told that team oden is looking for "fresh start" somewhere else?

Here you go: http://www.blazersedge.com/2011/4/2/2086980/the-greg-oden-truth