OT Nov 6th prediction time

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BrianFromWA said:
Midterm Election, Most House Seats Lost by President's Party in Power
'10 Obama: -63
'94 Clinton: -52
'58: Eisenhower: -48
'74 Ford (Nixon): -48
'66 Johnson: -47
'46 Truman: -45
'06 Bush: -30
'50 Truman: -29
'82 Reagan: -26
'18 Trump: -26

*NYT data since 1946-

And Gallup's slightly different, based upon approval rating (from 2010). Average change for unpopular presidents was -36.
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So? The effect is still the same. They lost the House with the Districts never having been so gerrymandered.

Democrats picked up few governors seats so that will help a bit.
 
Chris Craig said:
They will lose the senate in 2020. There will be no SC openings.
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That's an awfully bold statement, especially since you have a couple of octogenarians on the SC. And while there may be a way to take 5 seats of the 21 open (while holding all the (D) seats), that seems unlikely at the moment.
 
andalusian said:
I doubt it. He gained 14% on Cruz compared to the last election. Hillary won 43% in Texas. He only needs 7% to flip Texas. Assume he only gains half of what he gained on Cruz - he will also flip AZ, GA, NC, FL, PA, OH, MI etc...

He is exactly the kind of candidate the democrats need.
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Trump made Cruz a much weaker candidate by owning him in 2016 so hard. Lyin' Ted Cruz! Most of the real work was Trump showing what a shit Cruz was, people HATE him and he still won.

Its just shocking that this Blue Wave, despite all of this promotion to get EVERYONE to vote, didn't amount to much at all. Really keeps the hope alive for 2020
 
Trump's response to the election is to threaten people and avoid answering questions because he is scared.
 
dviss1 said:
So? The effect is still the same. They lost the House with the Districts never having been so gerrymandered.
Democrats picked up few governors seats so that will help a bit.
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I don't know what you're arguing here...
 
dviss1 said:
I think your post insinuates that Trump is somehow a winner in this since he lost less seats. He's not.
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My post literally just posted historical facts from previous elections with no commentary. Anything read into it is read into it.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
Its just shocking that this Blue Wave, despite all of this promotion to get EVERYONE to vote, didn't amount to much at all. Really keeps the hope alive for 2020
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It amounted to flipping the house and 7 states for governors - which is exactly what was expected. The Senate was a pipe dream given what was coming up for reelection.

Trump won the last election (while losing the popular vote) running against a weak democratic candidate - and managed to keep his approval ratings low even tho he inherited a roaring economy. If the democrats are not idiots and put any kind of reasonable candidate - he is not going to repeat unless something dramatic happens between now and 2020.
 
andalusian said:
It amounted to flipping the house and 7 states for governors - which is exactly what was expected. The Senate was a pipe dream given what was coming up for reelection.

Trump won the last election (while losing the popular vote) running against a weak democratic candidate - and managed to keep his approval ratings low even tho he inherited a roaring economy. If the democrats are not idiots and put any kind of reasonable candidate - he is not going to repeat unless something dramatic happens between now and 2020.
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He won against the "Most Qualified Candidate in Election History".

I won't put my money on the dems to do the right thing. They will eat each other alive in the primaries.
 
BrianFromWA said:
My post literally just posted historical facts from previous elections with no commentary. Anything read into it is read into it.
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Its a pro Trump post
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
He won against the "Most Qualified Candidate in Election History".
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That nobody liked. Qualified and liked are not the same. He still managed to lose the popular vote which means he is even less liked.

I won't put my money on the dems to do the right thing. They will eat each other alive in the primaries.
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No arguments from me there. I am getting back to my original post on this - a candidate like Beto that got a 14% bump in a red state - will be an excellent candidate for the Democrats and I doubt Trump will win against him.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
He won against the "Most Qualified Candidate in Election History".

I won't put my money on the dems to do the right thing. They will eat each other alive in the primaries.
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Clinton was a terrible candidate

The democractic primaries will be heated and passionate but respectful.
 
I seem to remember the Republicans 'eating each other alive' in 2016 primaries, so I'm not sure that matters.

barfo
 
Republicans will pitch this as a split decision, because they gain seats in the Senate. It’s not; the Senate map was highly favorable to them, meaning that maintaining control of it was expected. Democrats just took over a chamber of Congress, and that’s a big thing for them, period.
 
dviss1 said:
Prez... Y'all lost power.

You didn't gain anything. What did Trump actually win?

Because dems didn't win a few seats we wanted?

That's all y'all got...
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Trump shed the only thing holding him back, the 2-3 fake R's who keep going left won't be a factor anymore. The Senate is a lock now, even if a couple R's vote left on something. Legislation is going to fly through and nobody can stop it. The lefty courts will now be over-ruled by SCOTUS on all of their anti-Constitutional politically-motivated rulings.

The House has no real power in the end, all they can do is obstruct and throw crap at the President which will just make them look so ridiculous they'll lose the House next time around.
 
BrianFromWA said:
Midterm Election, Most House Seats Lost by President's Party in Power
'10 Obama: -63
'94 Clinton: -52
'58: Eisenhower: -48
'74 Ford (Nixon): -48
'66 Johnson: -47
'46 Truman: -45
'06 Bush: -30
'50 Truman: -29
'82 Reagan: -26
'18 Trump: -26

*NYT data since 1946-

And Gallup's slightly different, based upon approval rating (from 2010). Average change for unpopular presidents was -36.
pkbtznyobeqx076sbxftxw.gif
Click to expand...
However, none of those Presidents had a booming economy when they lost their House members.
 
MARIS61 said:
Trump shed the only thing holding him back, the 2-3 fake R's who keep going left won't be a factor anymore. The Senate is a lock now, even if a couple R's vote left on something. Legislation is going to fly through and nobody can stop it. The lefty courts will now be over-ruled by SCOTUS on all of their anti-Constitutional politically-motivated rulings.

The House has no real power in the end, all they can do is obstruct and throw crap at the President which will just make them look so ridiculous they'll lose the House next time around.
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The House has to vote on any legislation. That's who can stop it.

barfo
 
You few who are pretending like the republicans won like a delusional denialridden Trump are mistaken.

The Senate republicans were not in Jeopardy of losing the senate in 2018. They won 2 seats from democrats in Indiana and North Dakota, two heavy red states. Not a surprise.

Dems won the house taking 30+ seats

In the 2020 senate election there are 33 seats to be up for reelection. 22 by the republicans, 11 by the Dems. Non of the dems will really be in jeopardy. They are all in mostly democractic states. There will be at least 9 seats in jeopardy for the republicans in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Kentucky, Montana, Texas, and North Carolina.

Trump will not be reelected. The republicans lost the midwest. They lost the house. In 2020 they will lose the senate and presidency.
 
MARIS61 said:
Trump shed the only thing holding him back, the 2-3 fake R's who keep going left won't be a factor anymore. The Senate is a lock now, even if a couple R's vote left on something. Legislation is going to fly through and nobody can stop it. The lefty courts will now be over-ruled by SCOTUS on all of their anti-Constitutional politically-motivated rulings.

The House has no real power in the end, all they can do is obstruct and throw crap at the President which will just make them look so ridiculous they'll lose the House next time around.
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I'm gonna disagree. The Republicans did it to Obama and they just gained seats. I wonder how much all the Gerrymandering had to do with it.
 
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