Nurkic is our 2nd best Player, and it's not even close

[Labinot41]

From Reddit (Stats before the Kings game)

It's obvious how much of a defensive impact Nurkic has on the game, and when he is rolling on both ends of the court this team is extremely hard to beat. However, i dont think people actually realize how valuable he has been this season - I came across some absurd numbers while surfing bball reference, and they really opened my eyes to Nurk fever.


This season, Nurkic

• Leads the team in Defensive Win Shares, and has the same number of Offensive WS as CJ.
• Has the best defensive Box Plus/minus by a landslide at 3.4, and posts the second best Total BPM of 4.4 (Cj lands at -.4)

The most alarming numbers come from a stat tracker i LOVE called on/off, which measures the net impact players have by calculating their team's offensive and defensive productivity when that player is on the court, compared to when he is on the bench. According to the data listed -

• The team scores 119.8 points per 100 possessions while Nurkic is on the court, which drops to 106.4 while he isnt playing. 119.8 is also the highest offensive rating on the entire team (He must be doing a lot more for the offense than his standard 14/10 statline suggests).

• Opposing teams score more efficiently against all of our starters... Except for Nurkic. Yup, Nurkic is the only Blazer starter who is calculated as a net positive for our defense. Now, we all know Aminu is a solid defender, and his #'s are likely skewed due to playing alongside net negative defenders.. HOWEVER, what is extremely telling is that we know Nurkic deals with the same circumstances, and yet he still manages to make other teams less efficient while playing with bad defenders. Pretty impressive.

• The Blazers team on/off #'s show that, if you isolate any combination of 2 players who have played on the court together this season (Dame and Cj, or Nurk and Harkless, or Leonard+Aminu, etc) out of all the duo's Nurkic is a member of every single top ranked combination in terms of points scored versus points given up. There isn't a single 2 man combo that excludes Nurk that is better than one with him.

Nurk is the man, what a steal on that contract! Happy New year rip city

 

[Scalma]

Yeah no shit

 

[Bruno_Sabino]

He have a big game. Ppl on this forum start to create a hate for cj. CJ still the second best player. Nurkic is improving and have potential to be, but not for now

 

[Labinot41]

He have a big game. Ppl on this forum start to create a hate for cj. CJ still the second best player. Nurkic is improving and have potential to be, but not for now

He is better than CJ. Basketball is much more than just Scoring.

 

[BlazerBeav]

It's not a knock on CJ - if we can get him back into his normal shooting percentage from deep he's as deadly as scorer as anyone. But Nurkic has the ability to do what he did tonight - own both ends of the floor.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I'm not surprised at the defensive numbers - but I am at the offensive numbers. There are so many nights Nurk seems like an afterthought on offense.

 

[HailBlazers]

Yeah no shit

Sherlock

 

[TBpup]

So NOW can we trade MeJ?

 

[Labinot41]

I'll take an Allrounder like Nurkic all day over an iso chucker like CJ

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I was told we don't have multiple threads about a game after it's over.

 

[tykendo]

He have a big game. Ppl on this forum start to create a hate for cj. CJ still the second best player. Nurkic is improving and have potential to be, but not for now

Naw, he's a better player. CJ is a heck of a scorer, and mid range assassin though. It doesn't really matter who's 2nd or 3rd. The big three HAVE to be good every night, because the bench just isn't good enough to give them a consistant effort.

 

[Five Second Violation]

It's been pretty obvious all season long.

I'm just wondering how long it takes for the oblivious media to catch on. Especially the national idiots, who still pretty much exclusively refer to Portland as "Dame and CJ" or "led by the explosive backcourt", if they refer to us at all

 

[Scalma]

It's been pretty obvious all season long.

I'm just wondering how long it takes for the oblivious media to catch on. Especially the national idiots, who still pretty much exclusively refer to Portland as "Dame and CJ" or "led by the explosive backcourt", if they refer to us at all

Let’s start with our own GM, who never fails to pair CJ with Dame in his sentences.

 

[tlongII]

Nurk is playing great. No need to bash CJ because of that.

 

[wizenheimer]

when you look at how big an impact Nurk had on Portland's defense last season, I think a case could be made Nurkic was the 2nd best player last season as well. Even If he wasn't better than CJ, he still had a bigger positive impact

 

[BonesJones]

I was saying this might be the case at the start of the year.

 

[tester551]

Let’s start with our own GM, who never fails to pair CJ with Dame in his sentences.

I don't think I have heard a word from him so far this season... its been kindof nice

 

[Scalma]

I don't think I have heard a word from him so far this season... its been kindof nice

He usually goes silent during the season unless there’s a trade, or some other announcement to make.

What I really enjoy is not seeing him behind the basket at home games.

 

[BlazerBeav]

From his Twitter, looks like he lost his grandmother tonight.

 

[KingSpeed]

Hot take: He’s our best player.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Hot take: He’s our best player.

Its still Dame and its not very close...

 

[Cippy91]

Hot take: He’s our best player.

uhhhhh lol

 

[Bruno_Sabino]

He is better than CJ. Basketball is much more than just Scoring.

Glad you told me that. Cj still better player. He will bounce back

 

[beast blazer]

I would like to see him and Damian develop better chemistry, like Strickland and sabonis had. Nurk should get more scoring opportunities

 

[Pinwheel1]

I agree that Nurk is probably our 2nd most valuable player but that doesn't mean he is our 2nd best scorer. Nurk is getting the right amount of shots.

 

[illmatic99]

I agree that Nurk is probably our 2nd most valuable player but that doesn't mean he is our 2nd best scorer. Nurk is getting the right amount of shots.

Exactly. We are just a few weeks removed from Nurk putting up soft shots against Gasol and going something like 1-15. We need multiple attacks from the perimeter when Dame gets doubled. Nurk legitimizes our defense but his offense is nowhere near consistent. The only reason he's been getting doubled of late has been due to matchup issues and other teams not having centers.

 

[tlongII]

From his Twitter, looks like he lost his grandmother tonight.

Is this true? That sucks if so.

 

[wizenheimer]

Glad you told me that. Cj still better player. He will bounce back

wut?

PER: CJ 16.4....Nurkic 22.9 (CJ's career high is 19.9 but his average is 17.1)
TS%: CJ .542....Nurkic .555
FT Rate: CJ .170....Nurkic .441
assist/36: CJ 2.7....Nurkic 3.9
turnover/36: CJ 1.7....Nurkic 3.1
winshares/48: CJ .093....Nurkic .173
box plus/minus: CJ -0.6....Nurkic +5.1
value over replacement: CJ 0.4....Nurkic 1.8
Real plus/minus: CJ 0.21....Nurkic 3.59

clearly, one player is outperforming the other and has a much higher impact. The only area CJ has any advantage is turnovers. But CJ doesn't get whistled for moving screens or player control fouls. And unlike CJ, Nurkic has shown himself to be a more than willing passer and he's usually making those passes from more congested areas of the floor

and CJ fans keep saying things like CJ will "bounce back". Cj has already bounced back to his norms. The way he's playing now is the way he has played since he was elevated to starter. CJ had one year when his numbers were all much higher than his norms; but that season, 2016-17, is looking more and more like an outlier...a perfect storm of favorable conditions for him. The scouting book on CJ is more comprehensive now and I question if CJ had the depth of skills to overcome the way teams are playing him since that 16-17 season.

that could even explain, partially, why his 3 point FG% has cratered this season. It looks to me like defenses are sticking close to CJ around the 3 point line, essentially conceding driving opportunities to him. Ir could easily be that teams have decided that CJ on the dribble is not a threat to swing a game from a loss to a win, or vice-versa

 

[julius]

I'm sure it's been said already, but I wonder how much of CJ's troubles are that he's got his?

 

[THE HCP]

I'm sure it's been said already, but I wonder how much of CJ's troubles are that he's got his?

That's MY main trouble.