Oden Countdown Starts Now

[e_blazer]

The Blazers can extend him a qualifying offer anytime between the end of the Finals and June 30th. It'll be interesting to see how long they hold off.

 

[Tince]

Is there an advantage to doing anything but waiting until the very last minute?

I fully expect them to wait until June 30th.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think there's a near 100% chance that the team will extend the QO. Personally I'll be more interested to see if he accepts the QO or not ...

 

[jaspitzer]

I really hope he does accept the QO, I just want him to understand that the majority of real fans love him and just want him healthy and he needs to know that he has the support of the best NBA fans in the nation. I cant wait to see this kid go beast mode, as soon as he's healthy he immediately becomes the most dominate center in the league (well maybe 2nd to DHoward). I really believe he's our biggest need to have deep playoff runs and at only 23 years old he has an entire career ahead of him, many guys dont even get into the league until they're his age.

 

[Tince]

I think there's a near 100% chance that the team will extend the QO. Personally I'll be more interested to see if he accepts the QO or not ...

Why would he not accept the offer?

 

[e_blazer]

I think there's a near 100% chance that the team will extend the QO. Personally I'll be more interested to see if he accepts the QO or not ...

He has until March 1st to accept the QO. It seems pretty unlikely to me that he would accept the QO without waiting to see what offers he gets prior to next season.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Didn't Miller already publicly say that they will offer the QO?

 

[e_blazer]

Why would he not accept the offer?

IRRC, accepting the offer means he's decided to play just one season under the terms of the QO in order to become a UFA the following summer.

 

[Minstrel]

I think there's a near 100% chance that the team will extend the QO. Personally I'll be more interested to see if he accepts the QO or not ...

He has no incentive to turn down the QO, unless you think he wants to sit out a season to prevent another injury. That seems absurdly unlikely. Right now, he needs a solid season to cash in...sitting out a season to avoid an injury won't look any better than playing and suffering an injury.

The bad scenario, IMO, is him accepting the QO, playing out the season healthy and effective and then leaving as a UFA.

 

[Tince]

IRRC, accepting the offer means he's decided to play just one season under the terms of the QO in order to become a UFA the following summer.

So Greg couldn't accept the QO and then sign an extension later in the summer?

 

[e_blazer]

So Greg couldn't accept the QO and then sign an extension later in the summer?

If he signs the QO, he's under contract for one season. Under the terms of the current CBA, contracts for less than 4 years can't be extended. Who knows what the new CBA may allow, but I don't think it's likely.

The Blazers could choose to include a maximum contract offer with the QO. While the QO is on the table, the Blazers can match any other offer Greg gets and can also negotiate a new contract for whatever the new CBA allows.

 

[Tince]

If he signs the QO, he's under contract for one season. Under the terms of the current CBA, contracts for less than 4 years can't be extended. Who knows what the new CBA may allow, but I don't think it's likely.

The Blazers could choose to include a maximum contract offer with the QO. While the QO is on the table, the Blazers can match any other offer Greg gets and can also negotiate a new contract for whatever the new CBA allows.

Ok, I was under the impression that the QO was apart of his original rookie contract, therefore making it a 4+ year deal that could be extended. I'm no expert at this stuff, that's for sure!

 

[e_blazer]

Ok, I was under the impression that the QO was apart of his original contract, therefore making it a 4+ year deal that could be extended.

I don't think so. The CBA doesn't allow extensions to rookie contracts after Oct. 31st. The QO would be a new contract.

 

[Minstrel]

The qualifying offer is only a one-year deal that allows the team to keep a player's RFA rights. If the team doesn't make the QO to him, Oden would become a UFA this off-season.

The team and Oden could still choose to do a new, free agent deal for multiple years. And other teams can offer him a free agent deal (which the Blazers could match). But if the QO is extended and accepted and no other deal is signed by Oden, he's a Blazer for the next year and then a UFA.

 

[Shooter]

I cant wait to see this kid go beast mode, as soon as he's healthy he immediately becomes the most dominate center in the league (well maybe 2nd to DHoward).

Yeah, we've been waiting 4 years for that to happen.

 

[Sedatedfork]

Yeah, we've been waiting 4 years for that to happen.

True, but before the injury in December 2009 Oden was actually becoming a very good player. He was demanding the ball and having success. I think I have seen enough flashes of Oden in 2009 to say that barring an injury Oden will be a top 3 Center in the league and has the potential to be the most dominate. I just don't know what kind of odds I would put on Oden playing 70 games in 2011-12. Maybe 3:1 odds? The half-full side of me finds a silver lining in the fact that Oden has run out of knees to have microfracture surgery on.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

There's a really good Q'n'A on Oden on Blazers Edge:

Q: What is meant by a Qualifying Offer for Greg?

A: According to Article I, Section 1 (rr):

"Qualifying Offer" means an offer of a Uniform Player Contract, signed by the Team, that:...is for a period of one year; and...provides...for First Round Picks finishing their Rookie Scale Contracts, Salary (excluding Incentive Compensation), Likely Bonuses and Unlikely Bonuses equal to the Salary (excluding Incentive Compensation), Likely Bonuses and Unlikely Bonuses, respectively, provided in the fourth Salary Cap Year of the Rookie Scale Contract increased by the percentage called for in Exhibit B hereto

In other words, it is a one year contract, offering to those players coming off of their rookie scale contract the salary amount called for in Exhibit B. In Greg's case, this means a one year contract offer (for the 2011-12 season) for $8,788,681


Q: Can Greg Oden accept the Qualifying Offer before the current CBA expires on June 30th?

A: Yes. According to Article VII, Section 5 (e) (4) (i):

A player who receives a Required Tender or a Qualifying Offer during the month of June may accept such Required Tender or Qualifying Offer beginning on the date he receives it.


Q: Can the Blazers make any contract offer other than the one year Qualifying Offer before June 30th?

A: Yes. According to Article XI, Section 4 (a) (ii):

A Team that makes a Qualifying Offer to a player following the second Option Year of his Rookie Scale Contract may elect simultaneously to offer the player an alternative Contract covering six (6) Seasons that provides Salary for the first Salary Cap Year equal to the Maximum Annual Salary under Article II, Section 7(a), with annual increases in Salary equal to 10.5% of the Salary for the first Salary Cap Year (a “Maximum Qualifying Offer”)...A Maximum Qualifying Offer shall contain only Base Compensation and no bonuses of any kind...A Maximum Qualifying Offer cannot contain an Option or ETO, and must provide full Base Compensation protection in each Season...A player may accept either his Qualifying Offer or his Maximum Qualifying Offer, but not both.

In other words, if Portland offers Greg a Qualifying Offer, they also have the option of simultaneously offering him a Maximum Qualifying Offer, which would be for the maximum salary for 6 years.


Q: Can the Blazers extend Greg's current contract before he becomes a free agent?

A: No. According to Article VII, Section 7 (b)

No Rookie Scale Contract may be extended except in accordance with the following:...A First Round Pick who enters into a Rookie Scale Contract that commences with the 2005-06 Season or a subsequent Season may enter into an Extension of such Rookie Scale Contract during the period from the day following the last day of the Moratorium Period through October 31 of the second Option Year

In other words, the opportunity for the Blazers to extend Oden's current contract expired on November 1, 2010 (since October 31st was a Sunday, the deadline was moved to the next weekday).

Also this:

“That would be fantastic,” said Oden's agent, Mike Conley, regarding a multiyear deal. “We would definitely be excited about that.”

 

[3RA1N1AC]

Also this:

sounds good!

 

[Minstrel]

Also this:

Sounds quite promising. Thanks for the link!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I can't really take credit...

 

[PapaG]

I don't see a need for Portland to extend the Q.O. prior to the draft.

 

[Further]

What are the positives and negatives to extending the QO early?

To me, I think it makes sense to extend the offer early so that Greg can look for another offer (and the Blazers can match a market value offer). If the Blazers offer the QO late, it seems to me that makes it less likely that Oden will be receiving other offers so, it would make it more likely that he accepts the QO. If he accepts the QO, we can be pretty sure that he is a Blazer for only one more year. If however, Oden does not accept the offer and instead accepts an offer from another team, the Blazers can match that offer and ensure that Oden is a Blazer for longer.

Please let me know if I have a logic malfunction.

 

[Minstrel]

What are the positives and negatives to extending the QO early?

To me, I think it makes sense to extend the offer early so that Greg can look for another offer (and the Blazers can match a market value offer). If the Blazers offer the QO late, it seems to me that makes it less likely that Oden will be receiving other offers so, it would make it more likely that he accepts the QO. If he accepts the QO, we can be pretty sure that he is a Blazer for only one more year. If however, Oden does not accept the offer and instead accepts an offer from another team, the Blazers can match that offer and ensure that Oden is a Blazer for longer.

Please let me know if I have a logic malfunction.

My understanding is that the deadline to offer the QO is prior to the start of free agency. So "early" and "late" offers of the QO won't have any effect on offers from other teams. I believe the deadline is the end of this month, so we're only talking about a window of a couple of weeks.

 

[mgb]

So the Blazers can offer Oden either a one year or six year contract? They can't offer him a 4 year contract?

 

[Minstrel]

So the Blazers can offer Oden either a one year or six year contract? They can't offer him a 4 year contract?

They can either offer just the QO or both the QO and a max salary six-year deal for him to choose from. Those are their two options (other than offering him nothing).

 

[e_blazer]

They can either offer just the QO or both the QO and a max salary six-year deal for him to choose from. Those are their two options (other than offering him nothing).

That's right until the June 30th date. After that (and whenever a new CBA is signed) the Blazers and Oden can negotiate a new contract of any length and amount up to whatever the new CBA allows.

 

[PapaG]

Oden's Q.O. rights transfer in a trade though, right? Under that assumption, there is no reason to extend the Q.O. (or offer a max-extension once the lock-out ends) prior to the draft. If Oden isn't moved in the draft, then the Blazers can extend the Q.O. the next morning. If a trade is available with a team, and Oden is a key of it, then let that team have the option on offering the Q.O. (which I'm sure they would do if they traded for him).

I may be missing an obvious reason, but I can't think of a reason why Portland would offer it prior to the draft.

 

[e_blazer]

Oden's Q.O. rights transfer in a trade though, right? Under that assumption, there is no reason to extend the Q.O. (or offer a max-extension once the lock-out ends) prior to the draft. If Oden isn't moved in the draft, then the Blazers can extend the Q.O. the next morning. If a trade is available with a team, and Oden is a key of it, then let that team have the option on offering the Q.O. (which I'm sure they would do if they traded for him).

I may be missing an obvious reason, but I can't think of a reason why Portland would offer it prior to the draft.

Not sure I'm following you, PapaG. The Blazers have to extend Oden a QO prior to June 30th or else he becomes an unrestricted FA. Oden can't be traded prior to June 30th because he's on an ending contract. Once the new CBA kicks in, teams can make Oden whatever offers they want allowed under its terms. If Portland has the QO on the table, then Oden's a restricted FA and they have the right to match anybody's offer. Portland can also make its own separate deal with Oden. The QO is irrelevant in regards to trades.

 

[PapaG]

Not sure I'm following you, PapaG. The Blazers have to extend Oden a QO prior to June 30th or else he becomes an unrestricted FA. Oden can't be traded prior to June 30th because he's on an ending contract. Once the new CBA kicks in, teams can make Oden whatever offers they want allowed under its terms. If Portland has the QO on the table, then Oden's a restricted FA and they have the right to match anybody's offer. Portland can also make its own separate deal with Oden. The QO is irrelevant in regards to trades.

That was my question. So, Oden definitely can't be packaged on his existing contract, which expires 6/30? Do we know that for sure. I admit that I don't know the answer, and I've seen some posters I respect say that he can be traded, and others that I respect such as you who say he can't be traded. Isn't he still on his rookie deal? Or, was the trade deadline the expiration date for trading him on this contract?

 

[3RA1N1AC]

the trade deadline was the last time you could trade him, he will be a rfa july 1st, at which point we could sign him to an extension, sign and trade, let him walk to another offer, or he accepts the qo and comes back for a year. if we sign him to an extension, we could trade him 90 days after that, or december 15th, whichever is later.

this is important though

if he accepts the QO, we can NOT trade him without his consent for the year