I think you underestimate the lemming mentality. Once a guy starts slipping, GMs seem to panic and he slides a good long way. At that point they tend to have fallen in love with a guy they knew they had a good chance at and don't want to take a risk that the other teams really know something they don't. Not saying this will happen to Noel, but I think if he fell out of the top three he could fall a ways. People will suddenly start caring that he weighs less than most SGs but has no offensive skills.
Happened with Paul Pierce, a blue chip prospect expected to go very early and slid all the way to........
wait for it........
#10.
It was a funny draft though.
Lots of solid NBA talent to be found in the lottery.
But, no consensus #1, and the GM's were all over the map on who they liked. Kinda like this draft.
The two best players out of that draft were picked #9 and #10.
A rundown of the players picked in the lottery of the 1998 Draft:
PickTeamPlayerSchool/Country
1 LAC Michael Olowokandi Pacific
2 VAN Mike Bibby Arizona
3 DEN Raef LaFrentz Kansas
4 TOR Antawn Jamison North Carolina
5 GSW Vince Carter North Carolina
6 DAL Robert Traylor Michigan
7 SAC Jason Williams Florida
8 PHI Larry Hughes St. Louis
9 MIL Dirk Nowitzki Germany
10 BOS Paul Pierce Kansas
11 DET Bonzi Wells Ball State
12 ORL Michael Doleac Utah
13 ORL Keon Clark UNLV