Why Chad Ford Got it So Wrong
At least the Court is reasonably predictable.In theory, the justices are bound by years of precedent, their own restraint, and some logic.
NBA general managers have no such shackles. A team like the Toronto Raptors can inexplicably reach for a player like Terrence Ross, because, well…it’s still unclear. Or trade their pick because the player they coveted slipped off the board. And unlike the Court, an NBA executive is too happy to talk to the media ahead of the draft, often to mislead analysts and throw off the scent of which player they actually plan to draft.
It’s understandable that would-be draft prognosticators might want to revise their predictions, or that they deserve a margin of error. But ESPN’s Ford is the grandmaster of the “throwing-stuff-against-the-wall-to-see-if-it-sticks” forecasting model.
In the past six weeks, Ford did about 15 different iterations of his mock draft, all the way up to “Mock Draft version 10.2,” which he filed as the draft began. To Ford’s credit, Version 10.2 accurately predicted that the New Orleans Hornets would select consensus #1 pick Anthony Davis.
It was just the rest of the draft that gave him trouble…you know, the part where Ford accurately projected only four* of the next 29 draft picks — that the Boston Celtics would pick damaged-goods big man Jared Sullinger, and that the three best point guards in the draft would go to the three teams that needed them
* This is being generous. Ford thought that the Celtics would draft Sullinger; they did, but not at the pick that he expected.
So while I have pity for Ford, and other analysts like him, I’m again befuddled why they spend so much time on something so pointless. Eh — page views, I suppose. It’s predictable.
