Exclusive Official 2020 Draft Thread

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Think I'm going to end up lower on Avdija than most.

Have had that feeling for a while, but going back through some of his U20 tape tonight is reinforcing that for me.

Strengths
+ Instinctive Cutter - does a good job reading how defense is helping / rotating
+ Transition Play - good open court speed, aggressive pushing the ball / making advance passes
+ Weakside Rim Protection - does a good job meeting guys early with his chest, quick and fairly bouncy off 2 feet , helps compensate for poor length and reach.
+ Willing Passer - Does a solid job making the extra pass. Passes well out of post. Uses size to make hook passes to popping big when teams are in over and drop coverage in pick and roll.
+ Developing Shooter - FT% scares you/ but mechanics are solid enough (still need work, especially lower body). Shown some ability to shoot off some movement. Not at a high speeds, but can take a hand off, turn and quickly fire with some reliability.

Weaknesses
- Scoring off the dribble - Touch and accuracy really falls off, prone to all types of misses. Lacks a degree of quickness and deceptiveness as a ball handler. Strength / length limit on ball finishing
- Ball Handling - Upright and predictable, not comfortable with his left. Struggles to get all the way to the rim in non-advantage situations.
- On-Court Demeanor - Very emotional on the floor, high and lows, pouts at times when he feels he's open and doesn't get ball
- Physical Profile - Lacks strength and length. Poor reach considering he's 6'9" in shoes (8'6") - which is more like solid SG size.
*Very similar dimensions to Jake Layman / Brandon Clarke. Movement and verticality on defense very reminiscent of Clarke.
- Lacking Elite Skill - Not a great shooter, ball handler or self creator, length and reach likely limit the level his rim protection will translate to NBA
- Passing Accuracy / Decision Making
- Defensive Consistency - Gets caught in no man's land often, energy/focus/activity comes and goes, protecting rim is natural tendency / sacrifices off ball positioning at times.

Like a lot of what he brings but high end outcome still feels like a rotation guy / 5th starter in perfect situation type. Would not be surprised if he struggles to bring above replacement level value (-2.0 BPM).

Have him late lottery right now. Below Okoro and Vassell, right around Josh Green. May even be a little higher on Green because of the better physical profile.
 
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JDC said:
Think I'm going to end up lower on Avdija than most.

Have had that feeling for a while, but going back through some of his U20 tape tonight is reinforcing that for me.

Strengths
+ Instinctive Cutter - does a good job reading how defense is helping / rotating
+ Transition Play - good open court speed, aggressive pushing the ball / making advance passes
+ Weakside Rim Protection - does a good job meeting guys early with his chest, quick and fairly bouncy off 2 feet , helps compensate for poor length and reach.
+ Willing Passer - Does a solid job making the extra pass. Passes well out of post. Uses size to make hook passes to popping big when teams are in over and drop coverage in pick and roll.
+ Developing Shooter - FT% scares you/ but mechanics are solid enough (still need work, especially lower body). Shown some ability to shoot off some movement. Not at a high speeds, but can take a hand off, turn and quickly fire with some reliability.

Weaknesses
- Scoring off the dribble - Touch and accuracy really falls off, prone to all types of misses. Lacks a degree of quickness and deceptiveness as a ball handler. Strength / length limit on ball finishing
- Ball Handling - Upright and predictable, not comfortable with his left. Struggles to get all the way to the rim in non-advantage situations.
- On-Court Demeanor - Very emotional on the floor, high and lows, pouts at times when he feels he's open and doesn't get ball
- Physical Profile - Lacks strength and length. Poor reach considering he's 6'9" in shoes (8'6") - which is more like solid SG size.
*Very similar dimensions to Jake Layman / Brandon Clarke. Movement and verticality on defense very reminiscent of Clarke.
- Lacking Elite Skill - Not a great shooter, ball handler or self creator, length and reach likely limit the level his rim protection will translate to NBA
- Passing Accuracy / Decision Making
- Defensive Consistency - Gets caught in no man's land often, energy/focus/activity comes and goes, protecting rim is natural tendency / sacrifices off ball positioning at times.

Like a lot of what he brings but high end outcome still feels like a rotation guy / 5th starter in perfect situation type. Would not be surprised if he struggles to bring above replacement level value (-2.0 BPM).

Have him late lottery right now. Below Okoro and Vassell, right around Josh Green. May even be a little higher on Green because of the better physical profile.
Click to expand...

I was once very high on Deni but after extensive research I have to agree with you. His ceiling is similar to Batum, a jack of all trade type guy but his floor is frighteningly low, I see a lot of Mario Hezonja in his game. So I stay off of that guy
With that being said here are my top 3 guys for each pick
1st round
1. Saddiq Bey. This guy is a great small forward. I do see him being a lot like Wesley Matthews of the forwards. A 3D forward immediately while in the future he can become more of a star like Khris Middleton
2. Patrick Williams. He’s more of a project than Bey is but has a lot more potential. His defense is near elite but his offense need to be consistent
3. If he’s somehow available Isaac Okoro who is basically a beast on defense who need coaching from nba coaches on offense
Round 2
1. Tre Jones. A true backup point guard
2. Cassius Winston. A true backup point guard
3. Payton Pritchard. A true backup point guard
 
JDC said:
Leandro Balmaro's notable offensive and defensive possessions (good and bad) vs Russia during U19's

Best I've seen him play, but unfortunately ends up leaving with an injury in the 2nd quarter.

*Had to split up the video into 4 parts for streamable to cooperate.

PART 1


PART 2


PART 3


PART 4
Click to expand...

THIS IS THE CONTENT I COME HERE FOR!!!!
 
damianlillard said:
I was once very high on Deni but after extensive research I have to agree with you. His ceiling is similar to Batum, a jack of all trade type guy but his floor is frighteningly low, I see a lot of Mario Hezonja in his game. So I stay off of that guy
With that being said here are my top 3 guys for each pick
1st round
1. Saddiq Bey. This guy is a great small forward. I do see him being a lot like Wesley Matthews of the forwards. A 3D forward immediately while in the future he can become more of a star like Khris Middleton
2. Patrick Williams. He’s more of a project than Bey is but has a lot more potential. His defense is near elite but his offense need to be consistent
3. If he’s somehow available Isaac Okoro who is basically a beast on defense who need coaching from nba coaches on offense
Round 2
1. Tre Jones. A true backup point guard
2. Cassius Winston. A true backup point guard
3. Payton Pritchard. A true backup point guard
Click to expand...
I have not been high on Pritchard's NBA prospects to this point, but I would not be mad at spending a 2nd round pick on him.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
I have not been high on Pritchard's NBA prospects to this point, but I would not be mad at spending a 2nd round pick on him.
Click to expand...
Yeah that’s why I have him 3rd behind those guys. If he wasn’t from west Linn I probably wouldn’t draft him lol. But I think this guy will turn out to be like Steve Blake a little bit
 
I am not has high on Bey especially at the defense end. While watching him play he continue have keeping up with his man majority of the night. I think he would have trouble keeping up with small forward. He might do alright against power towards on D. His offense is alright is alright. The reason he be considered in my my mind is the college coach he played for.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
I have not been high on Pritchard's NBA prospects to this point, but I would not be mad at spending a 2nd round pick on him.
Click to expand...
Pritchard IMO is just not athletic enough for the NBA... He's going to need to follow the "Steve Nash" model, and I'm not sure he's skilled enough for that either...
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Pritchard IMO is just not athletic enough for the NBA... He's going to need to follow the "Steve Nash" model, and I'm not sure he's skilled enough for that either...
Click to expand...
I followed Nash in college and he's a good model for Pritchard to follow.
Both very crafty with the ball and can make up for lack of speed with ability find seams and they both could get their shot off whenever.
If he improves his D a notch he amy go second round?
 
I was spending a lot of time in Milwaukee when Wes Matthews was playing at Marquette and there were many arguments about if he could be an NBA player, many believed he wasn't quick enough and a bad handle. When he wasn't drafted there were allot of ha, ha, told you so's flying around. I loved it when he established himself as a player in Utah and proved many wrong, and really enjoyed it when he became Blazer and I was able to pick my spots and rub in to the naysayers. A bunch also thought DWade would be a bust too.
 
Hoopguru said:
I was spending a lot of time in Milwaukee when Wes Matthews was playing at Marquette and there were many arguments about if he could be an NBA player, many believed he wasn't quick enough and a bad handle. When he wasn't drafted there were allot of ha, ha, told you so's flying around. I loved it when he established himself as a player in Utah and proved many wrong, and really enjoyed it when he became Blazer and I was able to pick my spots and rub in to the naysayers. A bunch also thought DWade would be a bust too.
Click to expand...
Talking about Wes Matthews is one way to make my day gooooood.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Talking about Wes Matthews is one way to make my day gooooood.
Click to expand...
I love pulling for underdogs with heart, resilience and a super work ethic, that IS Wes Matthews! Hopefully Payton Pritchard can do the same, besides, his first and last name are those of a couple of decent guards that played the game.
 
Josh Green is a pretty bad finisher in the half court. Probably his biggest weakness right now besides his lack of on ball / self creation skill.

- Makes poor decisions as far as what type of finish to use based on situation. Often opts for floater when he can get all the way to the rim and vice versa.
- Small hands. Struggles with ball control because of it. Doesn't seem comfortable extending and finishing with one hand. A lot of awkward two handed finishes.
- Loses composure / sight of rim when in traffic with contact. Leads to wild, out of control finishing attempts.
- Not a great leaper in traffic.
- Little use of the left hand.

Has some floater touch which helps, but will need to also learn to be more crafty around the rim.

Some other noted weaknesses I've seen the more I've watched...

Poor navigation on ball screens. Footwork looks clunky and often does a poor job getting into ball handler and getting skinny. Often runs right into screen. Hard to say how much of this is poor communication by his bigs to help him prepare for the screen.

Too many bad routes on off ball screens. Likes to cheat and shoot the gap.

Off ball D could be better. Fairly aware making rotations and plays passing lanes, but head not always on a swivel.
 
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Josh Green's offensive synergy page for those that are unfamiliar with his game (pulled from Spencer Pearlman's scouting report on The Stepien)

Stats definitely match the eye test. Projects as a likely lower usage spot up / closeout attack / transition finisher on offense with good physical profile to be versatile on the ball and a playmaker off of it on defense.

upload_2020-4-1_23-15-38.png
 
I watch these guys too much...

I've gone from being not sure about Josh Green pre-college, to not liking him, to buying parts of his game and then back to thinking he may not even be rotation level...
 
JDC said:
He's starting to get a good amount of buzz.

I understand it too. Has some on-ball equity and isn't bad defensively (strength will be an issue though)

Will depend on what level pull-up/spot up shooter he can become and if he can reign in the decision making a little.
Click to expand...
My thinking is: the top Spanish teams (Real Madrid and Barca especially) do NOT play young guys unless they can really play. And (while they haven't given him many minutes) they've played him with their stars (like genuine NBA player Mirotic) ... at POINT GUARD. That's a very good sign.
 
Tyrese Maxey and Nico Mannion are two "eye test is better than the stats" guys for me.

Maxey is safer due to his size and defense, but if Nico can develop into a high level pull up shooter he might have the higher upside.

Favorite players (not the best) in this draft so far in no particular order...

Vassell
Maxey
Okoro
Mannion
Bolmaro
Tillman
Tillie
 
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JDC said:
Tyrese Maxey and Nico Mannion are two "eye test is better than the stats" guys for me.

Maxey is safer due to his size and defense, but if Nico can develop into a high level pull up shooter he might have the higher upside.

Favorite players (not the best) in this draft so far in no particular order...

Vassell
Maxey
Mannion
Bolmaro
Tillman
Tillie
Click to expand...

How do you feel about Bey? Projections for him seem to be all over the map.
 
If Stewart or McDaniels are there (and chances are they will be) I could see Portland taking either.
 
oldmangrouch said:
How do you feel about Bey? Projections for him seem to be all over the map.
Click to expand...
Saddiq...? He's fallen a bit for me.

The athleticism worries me at the next level. His defensive value comes primarily on the ball, but not sure he'll be someone you can put on the best perimeter guy and feel comfortable about that. Questionable lateral athlete and doesn't have the start stop ability/ recovery athleticism to still be effective if he has to turn and chase.

Would be more into him if his tools/skills translated better to the PF position, but I think you'll be forced into making some pretty significant physicality, rebounding and weakside rim protection trade-offs by playing him there.

His size, the recent track record for Villanova guys and probable shooting keep me from ruling him out as a guy that sticks though.
 
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Hoopguru said:
If Stewart or McDaniels are there (and chances are they will be) I could see Portland taking either.
Click to expand...
Jaden is interesting, but pretty far away from contributing. Also question his mental makeup.

I like him in a smaller role if he develops in the right areas, but he ultimately feels like a guy you'd be better off trying to sign after his rookie deal rather than draft him.

Never been a big Stewart guy. Don't like the way he moves and lacks a bit as a vertical athlete. Don't love the rim protection instincts either.

If he shoots threes he could become an interesting offensive center, just not big on that type of player. Especially for us.
 
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Georgios Kalaitzakis is my favorite 2nd round sleeper.
 
KSF-ERIC said:
I haven't read this thread but is anyone discussing the possibility that the usual "one and dones" may return to college for another year and how that will affect the draft?
Click to expand...
I work for the University of Michigan and I think there's a strong possibility there isn't a COLLEGE season next academic year.
 
JDC said:
Think I'm going to end up lower on Avdija than most.

Have had that feeling for a while, but going back through some of his U20 tape tonight is reinforcing that for me.

Strengths
+ Instinctive Cutter - does a good job reading how defense is helping / rotating
+ Transition Play - good open court speed, aggressive pushing the ball / making advance passes
+ Weakside Rim Protection - does a good job meeting guys early with his chest, quick and fairly bouncy off 2 feet , helps compensate for poor length and reach.
+ Willing Passer - Does a solid job making the extra pass. Passes well out of post. Uses size to make hook passes to popping big when teams are in over and drop coverage in pick and roll.
+ Developing Shooter - FT% scares you/ but mechanics are solid enough (still need work, especially lower body). Shown some ability to shoot off some movement. Not at a high speeds, but can take a hand off, turn and quickly fire with some reliability.

Weaknesses
- Scoring off the dribble - Touch and accuracy really falls off, prone to all types of misses. Lacks a degree of quickness and deceptiveness as a ball handler. Strength / length limit on ball finishing
- Ball Handling - Upright and predictable, not comfortable with his left. Struggles to get all the way to the rim in non-advantage situations.
- On-Court Demeanor - Very emotional on the floor, high and lows, pouts at times when he feels he's open and doesn't get ball
- Physical Profile - Lacks strength and length. Poor reach considering he's 6'9" in shoes (8'6") - which is more like solid SG size.
*Very similar dimensions to Jake Layman / Brandon Clarke. Movement and verticality on defense very reminiscent of Clarke.
- Lacking Elite Skill - Not a great shooter, ball handler or self creator, length and reach likely limit the level his rim protection will translate to NBA
- Passing Accuracy / Decision Making
- Defensive Consistency - Gets caught in no man's land often, energy/focus/activity comes and goes, protecting rim is natural tendency / sacrifices off ball positioning at times.

Like a lot of what he brings but high end outcome still feels like a rotation guy / 5th starter in perfect situation type. Would not be surprised if he struggles to bring above replacement level value (-2.0 BPM).

Have him late lottery right now. Below Okoro and Vassell, right around Josh Green. May even be a little higher on Green because of the better physical profile.
Click to expand...
I see Avdija's standing reach reported at 8'10 but you said 8'6? Whered you get that from?
 
BonesJones said:
I see Avdija's standing reach reported at 8'10 but you said 8'6? Whered you get that from?
Click to expand...
https://eurospects.com/?page_id=5499

Taken two years ago at basketball without borders. Never been able to find a source for ESPN's listing.

8'5.5" then at 6'7.5" barefoot. Currently listed at 6'9" so hasn't grown much since, if at all.

Also has very similar dimensions as Jake Layman who also had short reach for height.

 
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