Official Election 2008 Thread

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Minstrel said:
I suppose it depends on which exit polls you look at. Something like 15% of voters switched from McCain to Obama, and Palin was cited as the #1 reason for switching.

I think Palin was disastrous for him. Gave him an immediate bump, but that disapated in a few weeks and, ever since then, she's been a liability.
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There was an exit poll question about Gov. Palin given to both Obama supporters and McCain supporters. More McCain supporters felt she was an asset than Obama voters felt she was a detriment by 11 percentage points. Her nomination was wrongly reported as a move to get Clinton voters; it was to shore up the Base. She brought them out when they would have stayed home. In the end it still wasn't enough, but she actually helped McCain.
 
obama_zoolander.gif


i is win, mcfail is loss
 
What an amazing night for our country!
 
maxiep said:
There was an exit poll question about Gov. Palin given to both Obama supporters and McCain supporters. More McCain supporters felt she was an asset than Obama voters felt she was a detriment by 11 percentage points.
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I'm not sure that proves much. How Obama voters felt about Palin isn't all that relevant, IMO. I don't judge her based on her ability to "steal Hillary supporters." I think the fact that she eroded as much as 15% of McCain's previous support is quite disastrous. To me, that says a lot more than the fact that she was more favourable to eventual McCain voters than disfavourable to eventual Obama voters.
 
I think McCain's eroded support is largely due to the economy. Under socialism, the masses will be taken care of through redistribution of wealth.
 
Xericx said:
I think McCain's eroded support is largely due to the economy.
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Well, the #1 reason cited by people who switched from McCain to Obama was McCain's selection of Palin for VP.
 
Wow. On Fox News, I think it was Wallace, they flashed a sign that said "Why wait, evict Bush now" and he said, "I bet that's a minority there."

Fox smartly cut to commercial after the moron said that.
 
How about local races and ballot measures? Question for the other people in Oregon, what happens if both measure 57 and measure 61 pass?
 
gambitnut said:
How about local races and ballot measures? Question for the other people in Oregon, what happens if both measure 57 and measure 61 pass?
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Well, rumor is that 57 takes precedence over 61. I don't know for a fact that that is true, however.

barfo
 
Proposition 8 is currently leading in California. It's times like this when my disgust for organized religion knows no bounds.
 
Minstrel said:
I'm not sure that proves much. How Obama voters felt about Palin isn't all that relevant, IMO. I don't judge her based on her ability to "steal Hillary supporters." I think the fact that she eroded as much as 15% of McCain's previous support is quite disastrous. To me, that says a lot more than the fact that she was more favourable to eventual McCain voters than disfavourable to eventual Obama voters.
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That number you quote by definition is factored into the exit poll question I heard tonight. And according to that question, John McCain would have lost by a larger margin with a generic VP that mirred his policies rather than Sarah Palin. Whether or not Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Tim Pawlenty, Bobby Jindal, Tom Ridge or Joe Lieberman would have propelled him to victory we'll never know.

My guess is there was virtually no way for a Republican to win the Presidency this go 'round.
 
Minstrel said:
Proposition 8 is currently leading in California. It's times like this when my disgust for organized religion knows no bounds.
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Government should get out of the marriage business. It's just another business better handled by the private sector.
 
I am going to project Barack Obama as the winner in North Carolina. 100% of precints are reporting, so I'm not sure why this one isn't called yet.

Barack Obama 364 John McCain 159

Down to Missouri and Montana.

McCain leading by 8,568 in Montana and 398 votes in Missouri.

It could actually come down to my vote in Missouri.
 
barfo said:
Well, rumor is that 57 takes precedence over 61. I don't know for a fact that that is true, however.

barfo
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If two ballot measures with conflicting language pass the measure with more yes votes takes effect.

So yes 57 will trump 61 as it has more yes votes.
 
maxiep said:
That number you quote by definition is factored into the exit poll question I heard tonight.
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It's factored in, but the "extra information" isn't useful. There's disliking Palin and there's disliking her enough to jump ship. There's liking Palin and there's liking Palin enough to vote for McCain due to her. The 15% number I quote is a huge chunk of his support he actually lost. The part of his base that likes her, we have no idea how many of them, if any, would have failed to vote for him had he selected a "generic VP."

My guess is that not many of his supporters chose him because of Palin. Your number doesn't address that. It only says that a significant number of them like her and felt she was an asset. They may or may not have liked someone else. They may or may not have voted for him anyway. We don't know. We do know he lost a significant number of voters due to her. Whether he gained back as many, or more, voters thanks to that pick is guesswork. My guess, due to how awful her favourability polls were over the last month or so, is that he didn't.
 
maxiep said:
Government should get out of the marriage business.
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Well, due to tax issues and all, I'm not sure they can. They should definitely leave religion to the private sector and leave it out of the marriage issue.
 
A gracious speech by McCain, and a gracious response from Obama. Now their followers need to get the message.
 
Minstrel said:
It's factored in, but the "extra information" isn't useful. There's disliking Palin and there's disliking her enough to jump ship. There's liking Palin and there's liking Palin enough to vote for McCain due to her. The 15% number I quote is a huge chunk of his support he actually lost. The part of his base that likes her, we have no idea how many of them, if any, would have failed to vote for him had he selected a "generic VP."

My guess is that not many of his supporters chose him because of Palin. Your number doesn't address that. It only says that a significant number of them like her and felt she was an asset. They may or may not have liked someone else. They may or may not have voted for him anyway. We don't know. We do know he lost a significant number of voters due to her. Whether he gained back as many, or more, voters thanks to that pick is guesswork. My guess, due to how awful her favourability polls were over the last month or so, is that he didn't.
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And the part your number doesn't factor in are the people who were going to stay home rather than vote for McCain. It looks like once again, we're going to agree to disagree.
 
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