Official New Jersey Nets #1 pick Status Thread..........

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Boise Blazer said:
I noticed that Charlotte is at New Jersey tonight. That game might be comical to see who can throw the game more.
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I dont know what's more sad.... The outcome do this game or the fact that The HCP just set his DVR to record it!!
 
handiman said:
Looks like I may have been wrong about NJ being instantly better with Wallace... However, them losing a bunch and ending up among the three worst records isn't necessarily bad. Let's say they finish at #3. Has there ever been a year under the current lottery system where at least one team hasn't moved up into the top-3? (I don't know the answer without researching, but it seems very uncommon.) That's all it would take to bump NJ down to 4th and we get the pick this year.
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But aren't your ignoring the fact that if they finish at #3, they could possibly move up to 1 or 2 as well.
 
Darkwebs said:
But aren't your ignoring the fact that if they finish at #3, they could possibly move up to 1 or 2 as well.
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if they finish at #3, they have the greatest chance statistically to land at #5 in the draft, then #4

overall they would have a 46.9 % chance to stay in the top 3
 
3RA1N1AC said:
if they finish at #3, they have the greatest chance statistically to land at #5 in the draft, then #4

overall they would have a 46.9 % chance to stay in the top 3
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Fuck statistically, I'd like to know David Sternistically if they finish at #3.
 
Darkwebs said:
But aren't your ignoring the fact that if they finish at #3, they could possibly move up to 1 or 2 as well.
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No, not ignoring it, just saying it's very likely that they get bumped out of the top-3. In other words, don't fret it one way or the other until we see what becomes of the ping pong balls.
 
wiz and hornets lose NJ wins.

great day for keeping them out of the top 3. only trouble is NJ is also just 2.5 games from jumping to 8th worst now. would be funny if we ended up with consecutive picks 8-9.
 
I was wrong earlier when I said I was rooting for Charlotte. Glad the Nets won! Move further from that #3 spot!
 
HCP said:
Don't want them to lose too much though right?
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Actually, we want them to lose the rest of their games and then lose the lotto. That is the best case scenario. Means we get the number 4 pick. Be awful and lose the lotto. If they're not awful and teams below them win one of the top three spots, ourpick becomes even worse. Root for the Nets to lose every game they play.
 
crowTrobot said:
wiz and hornets lose NJ wins.

great day for keeping them out of the top 3. only trouble is NJ is also just 2.5 games from jumping to 8th worst now. would be funny if we ended up with consecutive picks 8-9.
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No, you don't understand. we WANT NJ in the top 3. And then LOSE the LOTTO. That is how we get a great pick.
 
Gerald looks so mediocre in NJ.

He's not the same player as he was in Charlotte.

Now he's primarily a below the rim player. He's also in a contract year so it's really odd -- is he really declining this quickly?
 
Nikolokolus said:
Mags said the "worst pick" ... I wanted to see his math. :wink:
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Wait what are you talking about? Maybe I was referring to nj getting the worst possible pick because of karma from tanking. Mathematically they would have the best shot at getting a top three, but history shows that most the time, teams with the worst possible record hardly wins the best possible pick.
 
KingSpeed said:
No, you don't understand. we WANT NJ in the top 3. And then LOSE the LOTTO. That is how we get a great pick.
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i understand perfectly. that would be ideal, but obviously it comes at a significantly greater risk of having the pick bumped to next year - which i personally don't want even if the odds are good it will still end up being a high lotto pick, which isn't necessarily a given. i want developing talent around LMA ASAP.

also BEST case odds at getting the #4 pick only get up to 32% even if they lose all their games and fall to 2nd. #4 is a little bit of a pipe dream IMO. i think realistically we should be hoping for 5/6 - and them finishing 2nd, 3rd, or 4th doesn't increase the odds at 5/6

taking all that into consideration i think the ideal position for them to finish is 5th worst. that would mean a 74% chance at 5-7 weighted for 5/6.

for comparison them losing every game and finishing 2nd worst only means a 44% chance at 4-5.
 
crowTrobot said:
i understand perfectly. that would be ideal, but obviously it comes at a significantly greater risk of having the pick bumped to next year - which i personally don't want even if the odds are good it will still end up being a high lotto pick, which isn't necessarily a given. i want developing talent around LMA ASAP.

also BEST case odds at getting the #4 pick only get up to 32% even if they lose all their games and fall to 2nd. #4 is a little bit of a pipe dream IMO. i think realistically we should be hoping for 5/6 - and them finishing 2nd, 3rd, or 4th doesn't increase the odds at 5/6

taking all that into consideration i think the ideal position for them to finish is 5th worst. that would mean a 74% chance at 5-7 weighted for 5/6.

for comparison them losing every game and finishing 2nd worst only means a 44% chance at 4-5.
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Smart man, thanks for the recap!
 
magnifier661 said:
Wait what are you talking about? Maybe I was referring to nj getting the worst possible pick because of karma from tanking. Mathematically they would have the best shot at getting a top three, but history shows that most the time, teams with the worst possible record hardly wins the best possible pick.
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It was a joke ...
 
crowTrobot said:
i understand perfectly. that would be ideal, but obviously it comes at a significantly greater risk of having the pick bumped to next year - which i personally don't want even if the odds are good it will still end up being a high lotto pick, which isn't necessarily a given. i want developing talent around LMA ASAP.

also BEST case odds at getting the #4 pick only get up to 32% even if they lose all their games and fall to 2nd. #4 is a little bit of a pipe dream IMO. i think realistically we should be hoping for 5/6 - and them finishing 2nd, 3rd, or 4th doesn't increase the odds at 5/6

taking all that into consideration i think the ideal position for them to finish is 5th worst. that would mean a 74% chance at 5-7 weighted for 5/6.

for comparison them losing every game and finishing 2nd worst only means a 44% chance at 4-5.
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I bow down to your genius! How do you know all this shit FAMS?
 
Here's some other stats on the history of the Lottery since it was implemented in 1990. The number of times teams have won the lottery (picking 1-3) based on their record:

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-draft-lottery-history/
(Plus adding in 2010 and 2011)

Based on record starting with worst: (No. times won lottery to pick in top 3)
Worst: 15
2nd: 9
3rd: 9
4th: 8
5th: 11
6th: 6
7th: 2
8th: 2
9th: 1
10th: 1
11th: 1
12th: 0
13th: 1

The fifth-worst team has actually won more than the fourth-worst, and even second and third worst. Interesting to see if anything.. like playing roulette.
 
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alex42083, thanks for the stats. I've always said 4th or 5th is where you want to be for the best chance of winning the lottery, and for the most part, your numbers support that. Obviously, they don't quite match the odds of 1st, but there certainly isn't any meaningful dropoff from 2nd and 3rd.
 
crowTrobot said:
i understand perfectly. that would be ideal, but obviously it comes at a significantly greater risk of having the pick bumped to next year - which i personally don't want even if the odds are good it will still end up being a high lotto pick, which isn't necessarily a given. i want developing talent around LMA ASAP.

also BEST case odds at getting the #4 pick only get up to 32% even if they lose all their games and fall to 2nd. #4 is a little bit of a pipe dream IMO. i think realistically we should be hoping for 5/6 - and them finishing 2nd, 3rd, or 4th doesn't increase the odds at 5/6

taking all that into consideration i think the ideal position for them to finish is 5th worst. that would mean a 74% chance at 5-7 weighted for 5/6.

for comparison them losing every game and finishing 2nd worst only means a 44% chance at 4-5.
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As it stands now, NJ has the 5th worst record.
 
magnifier661 said:
Well looking at history it says #5 wins most. Doesn't mean anything.
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it means the 5th spot has been very lucky in the past. obviously that has nothing to do with the odds for future lotteries. 4/5th still gets less PP balls than 1-3 : )
 
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