Offseason Grades: Portland Trail Blazers

[BBert]

Looks like Golliver wrote this for SI?

http://nba.si.com/2013/08/26/nba-portland-trail-blazers-offseason-grade/

 

[magnifier661]

Looks like Golliver wrote this for SI?

http://nba.si.com/2013/08/26/nba-portland-trail-blazers-offseason-grade/

To be honest, its pretty on point. A B grade without an "A list" player. I do have reason to believe that our team will be much better than most expect, just because we have a bench and a legit starting center. Lopez isn't a "Wow-type" player, but he is more of a center than hickson.

I think we will surprise many people this season.

 

[santeesioux]

To be honest, its pretty on point. A B grade without an "A list" player. I do have reason to believe that our team will be much better than most expect, just because we have a bench and a legit starting center. Lopez isn't a "Wow-type" player, but he is more of a center than hickson.

I think we will surprise many people this season.

I don't understand why people keep complaining why we didn't get an "A list" player, how? DH wasn't coming here, and Pek certainly isn't "A list". LMA is the only trade asset that could have netted the fabled "A lister".

 

[magnifier661]

I don't understand why people keep complaining why we didn't get an "A list" player, how? DH wasn't coming here, and Pek certainly isn't "A list". LMA is the only trade asset that could have netted the fabled "A lister".

Oh I'm not complaining. I would rather Olshey did what he did than blow his load on a Pek or Iggy. Both wouldn't have moved the needle as much as the slew of talent he picked up for basically nothing.

 

[oldmangrouch]

To be honest, its pretty on point. A B grade without an "A list" player. I do have reason to believe that our team will be much better than most expect, just because we have a bench and a legit starting center. Lopez isn't a "Wow-type" player, but he is more of a center than hickson.

I think we will surprise many people this season.

Here's the rub. The team needs Lopez to play starters' minutes. In 5 seasons, he has only exceeded 20 MPG once (and that was only 26 MPG). We are asking Lopez to do something he has never done before.

Can the Blazers make the play-offs with Leonard playing 20+ MPG? I can't see that ending well.

 

[magnifier661]

Here's the rub. The team needs Lopez to play starters' minutes. In 5 seasons, he has only exceeded 20 MPG once (and that was only 26 MPG). We are asking Lopez to do something he has never done before.

Can the Blazers make the play-offs with Leonard playing 20+ MPG? I can't see that ending well.

I think Aldridge will carry the majority of back-up minutes at center.

EDIT: Minute for Bigs

Best case scenario: Aldridge 26 mpg at PF / Center: 10 Minutes, Lopez: 25 mpg at center, T. Rob: 20 mpg at PF, Leonard: 13 mpg at center, Claver: 3 mpg at PF
Worst Case Scenario: Aldridge 26 mpg at PF / Center: 10 minutes, Lopez: 20 mpg at center, T. Rob: 15 mpg at PF, Leonard: 18 mpg at center, Claver: 8 mpg at PF

 

[Boise Blazer]

Im all ears for what Olshey should or could have done different with what he had to work with. For that reason I feel like our offseason grade deserves an "A"

 

[magnifier661]

Im all ears for what Olshey should or could have done different with what he had to work with. For that reason I feel like our offseason grade deserves an "A"

I guess I am more of one that rates a true off-season of an "A" is getting a marquee player. I think he did the best he possibly could with what he had to work with. I think Olshey should be GM of the year though.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Im all ears for what Olshey should or could have done different with what he had to work with. For that reason I feel like our offseason grade deserves an "A"

He's being graded against the league. No curve allowed.

 

[magnifier661]

He's being graded against the league. No curve allowed.

Exactly what I was thinking.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I think Aldridge will carry the majority of back-up minutes at center.

EDIT: Minute for Bigs

Best case scenario: Aldridge 26 mpg at PF / Center: 10 Minutes, Lopez: 25 mpg at center, T. Rob: 20 mpg at PF, Leonard: 13 mpg at center, Claver: 3 mpg at PF
Worst Case Scenario: Aldridge 26 mpg at PF / Center: 10 minutes, Lopez: 20 mpg at center, T. Rob: 15 mpg at PF, Leonard: 18 mpg at center, Claver: 8 mpg at PF

This is why I keep getting bashed by the lemmings.

In your best case scenario, you have 36 PF/C minutes going to guys that haven't proved they are legitimate NBA players. I don't see how that makes anyone feel all warm and fuzzy about the playoffs

 

[magnifier661]

This is why I keep getting bashed by the lemmings.

In your best case scenario, you have 36 PF/C minutes going to guys that haven't proved they are legitimate NBA players. I don't see how that makes anyone feel all warm and fuzzy about the playoffs

I am factoring how well we played last season with a very undersized Center and no bench. Even if Lopez can give us a good 25 mpg; and T. Rob can be a legit back-up PF; that does us a world of good this season. That alone, can give us an extra +10 wins this season. And remember we tanked the last 10 games too.

 

[crandc]

How many A list players were available? Dwight Howard was the biggest FA prize and he's yet to prove himself a true game changer, aside from having too many injuries. Who else? Iguodola, maybe? I'm not talking about players who were free agents and who were known to be pretty certain to stay put. Honestly, are there any other A listers I'm missing?

 

[magnifier661]

How many A list players were available? Dwight Howard was the biggest FA prize and he's yet to prove himself a true game changer, aside from having too many injuries. Who else? Iguodola, maybe? I'm not talking about players who were free agents and who were known to be pretty certain to stay put. Honestly, are there any other A listers I'm missing?

I would say only Iggy and Howard were the available "A list" free agents. But you don't have to sign the free-agent to obtain an "A list player" You could easily trade for one. Unfortunately, Portland didn't have enough talent to give up for an "A list player"

 

[Mediocre Man]

I am factoring how well we played last season with a very undersized Center and no bench. Even if Lopez can give us a good 25 mpg; and T. Rob can be a legit back-up PF; that does us a world of good this season. That alone, can give us an extra +10 wins this season. And remember we tanked the last 10 games too.

Portland was 12 games back of the 8th seed last year, while "tanking" the last 11 games (Without Aldridge) against teams with a .598 winning %.

A .598 winning % would have been good for the 9th best winning % in the league, and 6th best in the Western Conference (where the teams we played are all from). So while people can claim we tanked, or whatever, our record was probably pretty spot on to what it would have been either way.

So again, if EVERYTHING goes right with injuries, and players playing up to what we hope they are, we would still miss last years playoffs by 2 games. In YOUR best case scenario

 

[crandc]

But MM, same question - how many A list players were involved in trades?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here's the rub. The team needs Lopez to play starters' minutes. In 5 seasons, he has only exceeded 20 MPG once (and that was only 26 MPG). We are asking Lopez to do something he has never done before.

Can the Blazers make the play-offs with Leonard playing 20+ MPG? I can't see that ending well.

And Lopez had never started 82 games or averaged 20 MPG until last season. And guess what, he did both last year and had the best year of his career. Sheesh, the guy is only 24. He was 19 when he was drafted. Imagine that, a very young, very raw 7-footer who wasn't ready to be a full time starter and play big minutes until he was 24. Yeah, that NEVER happens...

The notion that Lopez is injury prone and can't play big minutes is complete bullshit, and just one more thing for the negative Nancys to hang their hats on. First we were going to lose Aldridge because he "demanded" a legitimate NBA center than could bang down low for 25 minutes a night. Olshey went out and got EXACTLY that, and now we get to hear how Lopez isn't capable of playing big minutes and we need to rely on Meyers Leonard for 20+ minutes per night. BULLSHIT!!!

In one year, Lopez went from 0 starts and 14.0 MPG to 82 starts and 26.0 MPG and HAD THE BEST SEASON OF HIS CAREER. There is no reason he can't bump that up to 30 MPG. But sure, go ahead and put your negative spin on that. We have a legitimate 7' starting center who hasn't even turned 25 and just had the best year of his career, who is obviously just starting to enter his prime, and this isn't somehow a good thing. Really?????

And Aldridge, not Meyers Leonard is our back-up center. We will also see plenty of smaller line ups with Wright and Claver as a stretch 4. How many teams in the league actually have quality depth at the 4 and 5 spots? When the other team plays their second unit, we can get away with going smaller. Yeah, it would be great to have 4 quality bigs 6'11 and taller, but name one team in the league that does. Name 8 teams in the West that do. Our starters have excellent size/length and we now have some quality, proven veterans coming of the bench, along with some young guys who are hungry to earn minutes.

We WILL make the playoffs this year. Last year we were only 3 games under .500 with a month to go in the season - with NO starting center and the worst bench in NBA history. We now have a legitimate starting center and a very solid bench. Until tanking the last month of the season, the team was surprisingly competitive due to the quality of our starters. Lack of depth did us in last season. With Lopez protecting the paint, our starters will be even better this season, and our bench has gone from a HUGE weakness to a strength.

BNM

 

[Mediocre Man]

But MM, same question - how many A list players were involved in trades?

I dunno? I wasn't posting anything about A listers. I was posting about mags minutes scenario.

 

[Blazer4ever]

The only time Lopez exceeded 20mpg was this past season, next year should be the first time he exceeds 30

Edit- just saw BNM wrote the exact same thing...

 

[e_blazer]

Man, this Negative Nancy vs. Hopeless Homer divide around here is hilarious. Doesn't it seem that everything has to polarize into two camps in our society today? I'm going into this season with an absolute certainty that the team is dramatically better than last year and has a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. Given where we were this time last year, that seems like a pretty good place to be. I'm really looking forward to the season this year.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Man, this Negative Nancy vs. Hopeless Homer divide around here is hilarious. Doesn't it seem that everything has to polarize into two camps in our society today? I'm going into this season with an absolute certainty that the team is dramatically better than last year and has a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. Given where we were this time last year, that seems like a pretty good place to be. I'm really looking forward to the season this year.

I don't see how anyone can argue that we don't have more talent than last year. Williams, Wright, and even Watson are huge upgrades to our bench. I also don't know if the team will win anymore games because if either Aldridge or Lopez go down for any real time, we are in big trouble...potentially. I say potentially because for all anyone knows T-Rob could be the second coming of Brian Grant.

 

[e_blazer]

I don't see how anyone can argue that we don't have more talent than last year. Williams, Wright, and even Watson are huge upgrades to our bench. I also don't know if the team will win anymore games because if either Aldridge or Lopez go down for any real time, we are in big trouble...potentially. I say potentially because for all anyone knows T-Rob could be the second coming of Brian Grant.

True, but you can say that same thing about any almost team in the league. Quality big men are a scarce commodity in the NBA and there aren't many teams, even the preseason favorites, who have solid backups at both the 4 and 5 spots.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Man, this Negative Nancy vs. Hopeless Homer divide around here is hilarious. Doesn't it seem that everything has to polarize into two camps in our society today? I'm going into this season with an absolute certainty that the team is dramatically better than last year and has a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. Given where we were this time last year, that seems like a pretty good place to be. I'm really looking forward to the season this year.

Agree 100% and repped. The team is better, will win more games and will be in the playoff hunt. Sounds good to me. I can't wait for the games to begin so I can watch and cheer for my favorite team. Looking forward to an enjoyable season.

BNM

 

[RoyToy]

Here's the rub. The team needs Lopez to play starters' minutes. In 5 seasons, he has only exceeded 20 MPG once (and that was only 26 MPG). We are asking Lopez to do something he has never done before.

Can the Blazers make the play-offs with Leonard playing 20+ MPG? I can't see that ending well.

I buy that center is still a weak spot on the team, and that some of the problems from last year will carry over to this year. I still see this Blazers team as a mediocre rebounding and defensive team. Combine that with a team that will rely on the 3pt shot on offense and you can see that there will be stretches of games where the Blazers look like a contender, and stretches of games where the Blazers don't look like a playoff team. That's just what you get with a mediocre defensive team that relies on the 3.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

So again, if EVERYTHING goes right with injuries, and players playing up to what we hope they are, we would still miss last years playoffs by 2 games. In YOUR best case scenario

I don't think you read Mags' post very well. He wasn't presenting a "best case scenario". He was suggesting that the change in bigs alone might be worth 10 wins (which is clearly a stretch), ignoring every other aspect of our perceived improvement.

However, we (the "lemmings") also expect improvement via Williams as backup PG, Wright as backup SF, and Lillard's natural growth, not to mention (at least for me) the fact that LMA will be healthy all offseason, meaning that he will start the season in better condition than he did last year.

If I were to assign expected win increase values to those improvements (as in, how much better would last year's team have been if these things had been there then), I would probably do so thusly:

• Lillard's progression: 4-6 wins
• Lopez/Robinson: 3-5 wins
• Williams: 2-4 wins
• Aldridge ready: 1-3 wins
• Wright: 1-3 wins

I think I'm being pretty conservative here, and I'm giving us a minimum 11 win improvement over last season. Based on that, I feel very confident about us being a playoff team this year (barring catastrophic injury, of course).

 

[Mediocre Man]

I don't think you read Mags' post very well. He wasn't presenting a "best case scenario". He was suggesting that the change in bigs alone might be worth 10 wins (which is clearly a stretch), ignoring every other aspect of our perceived improvement.

However, we (the "lemmings") also expect improvement via Williams as backup PG, Wright as backup SF, and Lillard's natural growth, not to mention (at least for me) the fact that LMA will be healthy all offseason, meaning that he will start the season in better condition than he did last year.

If I were to assign expected win increase values to those improvements (as in, how much better would last year's team have been if these things had been there then), I would probably do so thusly:

• Lillard's progression: 4-6 wins
• Lopez/Robinson: 3-5 wins
• Williams: 2-4 wins
• Aldridge ready: 1-3 wins
• Wright: 1-3 wins

I think I'm being pretty conservative here, and I'm giving us a minimum 11 win improvement over last season. Based on that, I feel very confident about us being a playoff team this year (barring catastrophic injury, of course).

So 21 more wins is your best case scenario? 54 win team......ok

 

[PtldPlatypus]

So 21 more wins is your best case scenario? 54 win team......ok

Yeah, I would be pretty shocked if that happened, but I guess it's possible. I'm expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of 13-15 more than last year.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Yeah, I would be pretty shocked if that happened, but I guess it's possible. I'm expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of 13-15 more than last year.

I think our team will be much better, but our record wont' really reflect that. I think coordinators will scheme for Lillard better and until any back up big shows they belong in the league, I think we are kind of stuck in that 35ish win territory

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I think our team will be much better, but our record wont' really reflect that. I think coordinators will scheme for Lillard better and until any back up big shows they belong in the league, I think we are kind of stuck in that 35ish win territory

So, would it be fair to say that if the team had made no changes from last year to this, you think we would have won fewer games this year than last? Or are you just saying that none of the "improvements" are actually material?

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Not sure what is considered A list, but there is a big list between Lopez and Dwight Howard, IMO.

This summer is no secret. The Blazers had salary cap space and a #10 pick and could have gone after a big name if they wanted to. Instead Olshey decided to get a serviceable center and fill the bench (since it was such a weakness for the Blazers)

I can see both why national press isn't overly impressed and why Blazer fans are excited.

Let's start the season!