Analyzing Oregon's Failed Fourth-Down Attempts in Washington Loss
The Ducks were aggressive in a 36–33 loss to the rival Huskies. Here's a breakdown of their three unsuccessful fourth-down attempts.
RICHARD JOHNSONOCT 15, 2023
In this story:
Oregon Ducks
OREGON DUCKS
Washington Huskies
WASHINGTON HUSKIES
Every high level player or coach will tell you the process is more important than the results in building a program and attempting to win a game. The problem is that in sports, the results speak louder than the process that led to them. The scoreboard says you win or you lose. The result is a cold binary, even when the process is deeply nuanced.
Consider the fact that Washington is, by multiple measures, perhaps the best offense in college football. That alone means that you have to change the calculus of how you think a game should be managed by a coach when facing the Huskies. But for Oregon’s Dan Lanning, it didn’t, because he’s already aggressive in his fourth-down decision making in an effort to maximize the opportunities at points for his team. When Oregon ran a fake punt with a 300-pound defensive lineman as a ball carrier from their own 17-yard line against Colorado while leading by 13, Lanning was lauded as a wily gambler. When Oregon got stopped on fourth down (as it did against Washington and Oregon State last year) Lanning got crushed as foolhardy for losing the game for his team. Such is the dichotomy of weighing the process against the results—which, in this case, was a 36–33 Huskies win.
While these decisions are not all the same, they speak to Oregon’s aggressive identity. How these decisions play out underscores the fact that merely making the call to go for it or not is not the only factor involved here. Oregon went 0-for-3 on fourth downs against Washington. The decision to go for it all three times does not reflect a poor process, but the Ducks got none of them as a result of their own execution lacking and Washington's defense rising to the task.
With some help from sports consulting firm Championship Analytics founder and president Michael McRoberts, let’s take a peek under the hood to break down what factors caused the results for these three fourth down decisions that ultimately played a huge role in the Ducks’ demise.
Oregon’s Bo Nix threw for 337 yards with two touchdowns in a 36-33 loss to Washington.
Oregon’s Bo Nix threw for 337 yards with two touchdowns in a 36-33 loss to Washington.
Steven Bisig/USA TODAY Sports
Fourth down No. 1
Score: Washington leads, 22–18
Time: 0:06 left in the second quarter
Down-and-distance: Fourth-and-goal from the Washington 3-yard line
The Ducks were actually only in this position after Washington converted on its own fourth-and-1 to extend its final drive of the first half. Two plays later, Michael Penix Jr. threw an interception. Oregon drove into the red zone and had first-and-goal at the 10-yard line and both third- and fourth-and-goal from the three. It opted not to run the ball on any of its four chances. On third down, quarterback Bo Nix rushed an incomplete pass to a receiver that would have gotten at least gotten very close to scoring had it been caught. On fourth down, Oregon ran a sprint out play where Nix rolled to his right—further compressing an already crowded area on the field—and the half ended with a whimper when the pass fell incomplete.
Of the three fourth downs, it’s the one that is most open for criticism—especially given Oregon got the ball coming out of the half.
According to data provided by TruMedia, teams are 49% on fourth down plays from the 3-yard line. Oregon’s elite offense scores 4.8 points per drive, far above average. If you give Oregon 100 plays from the 3-yard line, they will score around 350 points if they go for it every time. If they kick a field goal every time, they’ll likely miss a few and get around 285 points, in McRoberts’s estimation. He considers going for it as the clear winner in a long term strategy sense. You would only need to make about 42% of the plays from three to break even. Oregon’s play here simply didn’t work. And given the three point margin in the final score, it’s hard to ignore that this one ended up being particularly costly in the end.
