Makes sense. People are WAY overpaying for players that may or may not even work out. Reminds me of when the NBA was drafting high schoolers and Euros who had zero tape to show they deserved the high position.
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in 2020, Justin Flowe and Noah Sewell were 5-star; some 4-stars were Trey Benson, Jay Butterfield, Maceal Afaese, & Kris Hutson
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in 2021 Kingsley Saumataia was a 5-star; Troy Franklin and JPJ were 4 stars; but so were Bram Walden, Donte Thornton, Ty Thompson, Keith Brown, Avante Dickerson,, Byron Cardwell,, Daymon David, Jabril McNeill, Jaylin Davies, Jonah Miller, Keanu Williams (
how many of those guys should the Ducks limited NIL been invested in?)
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in 2022, Josh Connerly was a 5-star while Jahlil Florence, Jordan James and Dave Iuli were 4-star. The other 4-stars? Jalil Tucker, Devon Jackson, Kyler Kasper, Khamari Terrell, Ben Roberts, Justius Lowe, Trejon Williaiamn, Emar'rion Winston, & Harrison Taggart
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in 2023, Jurrion Dickey was the 5-star and Matayo, Sadiq, Purchase, Laloulu, and Novosad were 4-stars. But so were Roderick Pleasant, Daylen Austin, Johnny Bowens, Dante Dowdell, Aston Cozart, Cole Martin, Kody DeCambra, George Silva, Ashton Porter, & Jayden Limar
honestly, going thru those classes looking at the 4 and 5 star recruits, I'd say their are more misses than hits; at the minimum about 50-50 if you gauge by some patience till they are upper-classmen. But then, how many of those 'patience-recruits' hit the transfer portal. And my assumption is that there will be a pretty strong correlation between star-ratings and NIL demands from the camps of recruits
on the other hand, how about the transfer portal:
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2022: Bo Nix, Taki Taimani, Christian Gonzalez, Andrew Boyle, Bucky Irving, Noah Whittington, Chase Cota, Jordan Riley, Casey Rogers, Caleb Chapman
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2023: Nikko Reed, Nishad Strother, Gary Bryant Jr., Casey Kelly, Tysheem Johnson, Jordan Burch, Evan Williams, Conner Soelle, Tez Johnson, Ajani Cornelius, Junior Angilau, Khyree Jackson, Treashon Holdin, Jestin Jacobs
* 2024: Dillon Gabriel, Peyton Woodyard, Dereck Harmon, Kobe Savage, Dante Moore, Jabbar Muhammed, Brandon Johnson, Jamaree Caldwell, Evan Stewart, Atticus Sappington, Kam Alexander, Jay Harris, Mathew Bedford
if the hit/miss ratio on HS recruits is in the 40-50% range and the hit/miss on transfers is in the 80-90% range, it's glaringly obvious what NIL dollars are better spent. Obviously, without knowing exactly what any recruit, HS or Transfer is demanding and getting from somewhere, gauging all this is a little iffy, but there is an undeniable common sense quality to the transfer portal.
the decades long paradigms of college football have dramatically shifted