Yeah I have to think the Nuggies would rather have home-court and play Houston. That said, the Lakers lack of focus and yo-yoing defensive intensity from one game to another might be awfully tempting for a Nuggets team that is playing focused, intense defense and is getting tons of run outs.
Just from a matchups point of view I'd break it down like this:
Houston vs. Denver
PG: advantage Denver. Aaron Brooks has been great, but against a defensive stud like Mr. Bigshot I don't see him going off.
SG: push. Houston has Battier and Wafer and Denver has Jones and JR Smith. Battier and Jones will neutralize some of Wafer and Smith's scoring respectively, but neither starter is going to be a huge offensive threat.
SF: slight advantage Denver. Carmelo has been having an unbelievable playoff run, playing efficiently and taking and making huge shots. Ron-Ron is no slouch himself, but his tendency to overdribble and take bad shots at times cedes the edge to Melo
PF: push. Scola, Landry and Hayes vs. K-Mart and Birdman. I don't know how to call this one; lots of defense, lots of intensity and some actual honest to god tough guys on each side.
C: advantage Denver. Nene vs. whatever bigs Houston puts on him has got to be seen as an advantage considering Nene's strength and athleticism.
bench: advantage Houston. I've never seen so many deep bench guys this productive in a playoff series, Denver's backups aren't bad, but they only go about 8 deep.
Denver vs. LA
PG: advantage Denver. Farmar and Fisher aren't going to be able to contain Billups, and Billups should be able to contain them
SG: advantage LA. Kobe is still a top five player in the league and the Nuggets are going to be hard pressed to put anybody on him.
SF: slight advantage Denver. Melo vs. Ariza is interesting, but I'm not sure Ariza can stop this incarnation of Melo. LA's backups are better however.
PF: push. In theory Pau should be able to leverage his height advantage over K-mart and Anderson, but I wouldn't bet my house on it.
C: slight advantage Denver. Bynum has looked pretty bad in the playoffs and is still probably not 100% healthy, but LA's length in the frontcourt could still give Nene fits.
bench: advantage LA. the Lakers are deeper at pretty much every position and depending on the health of Odom could really make a huge difference.
Whomever gets matched up in the WCF I expect it to go at least 6 games maybe even 7.