Over/Under NBA Predictions

[e_blazer]

ESPN has a listing of the Vegas over/under predictions for team wins for all 30 teams in the NBA.

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/20496197/nba-golden-state-warriors-top-all-teams-under-675

I've copied the Vegas numbers below. Since it's still the boring off-season and we don't have much else to do but keep bumping the endless thread and Mrs. HCP, why not take a couple of minutes and post whether you take the over or under on each one?

Eastern Conference
Atlantic
Boston Celtics 56.5
Toronto Raptors 48.5
Philadelphia 76ers 42.5
New York Knicks 30.5
Brooklyn Nets 28.5

Central
Cleveland Cavaliers 53.5
Milwaukee Bucks 47.5
Detroit Pistons 38.5
Indiana Pacers 31.5
Chicago Bulls 21.5

Southeast
Washington Wizards 47.5
Miami Heat 43.5
Charlotte Hornets 42.5
Orlando Magic 33.5
Atlanta Hawks 25.5

Western Conference
Northwest
Oklahoma City Thunder 51.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5
Denver Nuggets 45.5
Portland Trail Blazers 42.5
Utah Jazz 40.5

Pacific
Golden State Warriors 67.5
Los Angeles Clippers 43.5
Los Angeles Lakers 33.5
Sacramento Kings 28.5
Phoenix Suns 28.5

Southwest
Houston Rockets 55.5
San Antonio Spurs 54.5
New Orleans Pelicans 39.5
Memphis Grizzlies 37.5
Dallas Mavericks 35.5

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Eastern Conference
Atlantic
Boston Celtics 56.5 - Over
Toronto Raptors 48.5 - Under
Philadelphia 76ers 42.5 - Under
New York Knicks 30.5 - Over
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 - Under

Central
Cleveland Cavaliers 53.5 - Over
Milwaukee Bucks 47.5 - Over
Detroit Pistons 38.5 - Over
Indiana Pacers 31.5 - Over
Chicago Bulls 21.5 - Over

Southeast
Washington Wizards 47.5 - Under
Miami Heat 43.5 - Under
Charlotte Hornets 42.5 - Under
Orlando Magic 33.5 - Under
Atlanta Hawks 25.5 - Under

Western Conference
Northwest
Oklahoma City Thunder 51.5 - Over
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 - Under
Denver Nuggets 45.5 - Under
Portland Trail Blazers 42.5 - Over
Utah Jazz 40.5 - Under

Pacific
Golden State Warriors 67.5 - Under
Los Angeles Clippers 43.5 - Under
Los Angeles Lakers 33.5 - Over
Sacramento Kings 28.5 - Over
Phoenix Suns 28.5 - Under

Southwest
Houston Rockets 55.5 - Over
San Antonio Spurs 54.5 - Over
New Orleans Pelicans 39.5 - Over
Memphis Grizzlies 37.5 - Under
Dallas Mavericks 35.5 - Under


Came out as 14 Over and 16 Under (7 & 8 in each conference). Really weird that I'm perceiving the entire Central as over and the entire Southeast as under. Obviously it won't happen that way, but those were my instinctive responses on all of them.

 

[dviss1]

Eastern Conference
Atlantic
Boston Celtics 56.5 - Over
Toronto Raptors 48.5 - Under
Philadelphia 76ers 42.5 - Under
New York Knicks 30.5 - Under
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 - Under

Central
Cleveland Cavaliers 53.5 - Over
Milwaukee Bucks 47.5 - Over
Detroit Pistons 38.5 - Under
Indiana Pacers 31.5 - Under
Chicago Bulls 21.5 - Over

Southeast
Washington Wizards 47.5 - Over
Miami Heat 43.5 - Under
Charlotte Hornets 42.5 - Under
Orlando Magic 33.5 - Under
Atlanta Hawks 25.5 - Under

Western Conference
Northwest
Oklahoma City Thunder 51.5 - Over
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 - Under
Denver Nuggets 45.5 - Under
Portland Trail Blazers 42.5 - OVER
Utah Jazz 40.5 - Under

Pacific
Golden State Warriors 67.5 - UNDER
Los Angeles Clippers 43.5 - Under
Los Angeles Lakers 33.5 - Over
Sacramento Kings 28.5 - Over
Phoenix Suns 28.5 - Under

Southwest
Houston Rockets 55.5 - Under
San Antonio Spurs 54.5 - Over
New Orleans Pelicans 39.5 - Over
Memphis Grizzlies 37.5 - Under
Dallas Mavericks 35.5 - Under

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Eastern Conference
Atlantic
Boston Celtics 56.5 - Over
Toronto Raptors 48.5 - Under
Philadelphia 76ers 42.5 - Under
New York Knicks 30.5 - Under
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 - Under

Central
Cleveland Cavaliers 53.5 - Over
Milwaukee Bucks 47.5 - Over
Detroit Pistons 38.5 - Under
Indiana Pacers 31.5 - Under
Chicago Bulls 21.5 - Over

Southeast
Washington Wizards 47.5 - Over
Miami Heat 43.5 - Under
Charlotte Hornets 42.5 - Under
Orlando Magic 33.5 - Under
Atlanta Hawks 25.5 - Under

Western Conference
Northwest
Oklahoma City Thunder 51.5 - Over
Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5 - Under
Denver Nuggets 45.5 - Under
Portland Trail Blazers 42.5 - OVER
Utah Jazz 40.5 - Under

Pacific
Golden State Warriors 67.5 - UNDER
Los Angeles Clippers 43.5 - Under
Los Angeles Lakers 33.5 - Over
Sacramento Kings 28.5 - Over
Phoenix Suns 28.5 - Under

Southwest
Houston Rockets 55.5 - Under
San Antonio Spurs 54.5 - Over
New Orleans Pelicans 39.5 - Over
Memphis Grizzlies 37.5 - Under
Dallas Mavericks 35.5 - Under

Wow--the Rockets are the only team in the west you and I disagreed on. Looks like we agree on all but 4 in the east as well.

You realize you went under on 19 of the 30 teams? Then again, I guess that makes some sense since the sum total of the over/under marks is 14 more than the total number of games...

 

[dviss1]

Wow--the Rockets are the only team in the west you and I disagreed on. Looks like we agree on all but 4 in the east as well.

You realize you went under on 19 of the 30 teams? Then again, I guess that makes some sense since the sum total of the over/under marks is 14 more than the total number of games...

I just went off the top of my head.

 

[Minstrel]

I'm conflicted on Golden State. Regression to the mean and more room to get worse than to get better would strongly suggest they won't keep winning 67+ games. On the other hand, I think next season will be "peak Golden State" for their dynasty, as they retained everyone important, they can build on Curry and Durant figuring out how to play together and they even strengthened their bench a little with Casspi, Bell and Young. Starting in 2019, I think they'll start their decline as the price tags begin to skyrocket.

Portland is also a tough one. I think their talent would push them close to 50 wins in a "normal" season, but I think next season's West will be a meat-grinder and a team like Portland will suffer a lower win total than their talent would normally dictate.

I'd probably go with the over on Oklahoma City--I wouldn't surprised if they were the #2 seed, and I think they should at least be around the same win expectation as Houston and San Antonio. I'd also probably bet the under on the Clippers--after losing Paul, they should be one of those teams that would still rack up a good win total in a normal season but sees their total suppressed by the conference competition.

 

[JDC]

As always, Vegas has put a good number out for most of these teams but here are the one's that stood out to me.

Celtics: 56.5 - Under

• Point differential of a 46 win team w/ IT and Crowder having career years. Question marks past their top 6 or 7. Top end talent and the East probably pushes this team into 48-51 win range but this roster as currently constructed is worse than last year imo.

Hornets: 42.5 - Over

• Cody Zeller missing 20 games and their bench torpedoed their season last year. Still managed a point differential of a 42-win team and if Zeller plays 75+ games and they can get better play from their bench, they look like a slightly above average offensive team and a lock to be top 10 defensively.

Magic: 33.5 - Under

• Point differential of a 24-win team last year and fail to see where the upgraded roster. Don't see a player the significantly outperforms expectations this year either which is the only way they hit this number imo. Losing hope that Aaron Gordon can be that guy.

Nothing standing out in the West. I would bet the over on us though.

 

[PDXFonz]

You mentioned NYK, so this should probably be merged with the Melo thread.

 

[Orion Bailey]

more fuel for the fire.

UNDERRATED and it feels so good...
GONNA MAKE EM EAT IT and it feels so good...

 

[stampedehero]

I'm conflicted on Golden State. Regression to the mean and more room to get worse than to get better would strongly suggest they won't keep winning 67+ games. On the other hand, I think next season will be "peak Golden State" for their dynasty, as they retained everyone important, they can build on Curry and Durant figuring out how to play together and they even strengthened their bench a little with Casspi, Bell and Young. Starting in 2019, I think they'll start their decline as the price tags begin to skyrocket.

Portland is also a tough one. I think their talent would push them close to 50 wins in a "normal" season, but I think next season's West will be a meat-grinder and a team like Portland will suffer a lower win total than their talent would normally dictate.

I'd probably go with the over on Oklahoma City--I wouldn't surprised if they were the #2 seed, and I think they should at least be around the same win expectation as Houston and San Antonio. I'd also probably bet the under on the Clippers--after losing Paul, they should be one of those teams that would still rack up a good win total in a normal season but sees their total suppressed by the conference competition.

I agree. I also think Utah will be over 40 and Minnesota will be under 40. A healthy Portland will be over 44 but that's a biased prediction.