Pelton: Trail Blazers Are NBA’s Most Underrated

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Natebishop3 said:
Man... I'm completely staying away from predicting how many wins.

1) Because I don't really care if we win games this season. My goals are completely about the development of our talent. If wins come in the process, great, if not...... more lotto balls.

2) This team is a complete mystery. It's like dealing you five cards in Texas Holdem, NOT turning them over, and then dealing the flop and asking me to bet, all without seeing the cards in my hand. Our known players are like the flop, but right now the rest of our roster is like a bunch of unknown cards in my hand that I can't see. I have no clue how we're going to play together. I have no clue how well Dame and CJ are going to play once the action matters. I have no clue how well our really young guys are going to perform. I really can't pin a number on this team.
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Why are we getting 5 cards in texas holdem before the flop? That just threw my mind for a loop. :MARIS61:
 
blue9 said:
I looked up next year's Free Agent class, and here are the unrestricted free agents. A lot of them aren't even worth discussing, I've bolded the ones who we might have even the slightest chance of signing:

LBJ - won't sign here
Durant - won't sign here
Dwight - won't sign here
Drummond
Horford - won't sign here
Pau - won't sign here / too old
Wade - won't sign here / too old
Conley - not a position of need
DeRozan - blech
Noah - blech, too broken
Parsons - blech
Duncan - hahaha
Kobe - hahaha, won't sign here, too old, too broken
Jefferson - blech
Dirk - hahaha, won't sign here, too old
Rondo - not a position of need
Whiteside
Hibbert - blech
Clarkson - not a position of need
Jennings - not a position of need
Mosgov
Nic
Deng - blech, too old
Turner
Smoove - blech
Green
Johnson - too old
West - too old

I could go on, but it's pretty clear that we're not going to sign a superstar next summer, and even a star is a long-shot. In order to get another star/superstar or two we need to draft 'em or trade for 'em. And right now the only two stars that I can see potentially being on the trading block are Melo and Cousins. I hate (HATE!) Melo, but given the weakness of the wing position he'd probably be the most bang for our buck.
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Not bad list, but the.. wont sign here, I think is a bit much for a few guys. I think mostly its about timing, but right now is a good time for a star to sign with us as long as he isn't old like Dirk.
 
Strenuus said:
Yep!

Also, Why would Horford not come here? I always liked him. Is it just because of fighting for playing minutes?
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I figure Horford is at the point in his career where if he leaves his current team it's ONLY going to be for a team that goes deep in the POs this season.
I also could have added "not a position of need" to him, along with the other PFs/Cs - but I decided to only do that for PG. But personally I'm crossing off all the PFs/Cs from the list other than Drummond.
 
blue9 said:
I figure Horford is at the point in his career where if he leaves his current team it's ONLY going to be for a team that goes deep in the POs this season.
I also could have added "not a position of need" to him, along with the other PFs/Cs - but I decided to only do that for PG. But personally I'm crossing off all the PFs/Cs from the list other than Drummond.
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That makes sense. I just wanted to hear it.
 
After mentally crossing off all the bigs the only players I can see us interested in are:
Drummond
DeRozan
Nic
Turner
Green

The only one that really blows my skirt up is Drummond, and I still don't think he puts us over the top. Or is all that likely to sign with us. I also believe him when he says he wants to work with DET to give them more cap space next summer - I don't think he's going to welch-out like bitchmade Aldridge. But if he does I hope we sign him!
 
blue9 said:
Anybody in mind? Who are next summer's FAs that can put this team in contention?
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I'm not counting on a high-level FA who by himself puts us in contention. Just a good quality veteran player at whatever position of need is identified by Olshey & Co. I think it's multiple baby steps combining good scouting and good luck that get the job done.
 
e_blazer said:
I'm not counting on a high-level FA who by himself puts us in contention. Just a good quality veteran player at whatever position of need is identified by Olshey & Co. I think it's multiple baby steps combining good scouting and good luck that get the job done.
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Fair enough.
 
Natebishop3 said:
Man... I'm completely staying away from predicting how many wins.

1) Because I don't really care if we win games this season. My goals are completely about the development of our talent. If wins come in the process, great, if not...... more lotto balls.

2) This team is a complete mystery. It's like dealing you five cards in Texas Holdem, NOT turning them over, and then dealing the flop and asking me to bet, all without seeing the cards in my hand. Our known players are like the flop, but right now the rest of our roster is like a bunch of unknown cards in my hand that I can't see. I have no clue how we're going to play together. I have no clue how well Dame and CJ are going to play once the action matters. I have no clue how well our really young guys are going to perform. I really can't pin a number on this team.
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But you unlike most on here, I respect your opinion. You have a bit of common sense. You would have to admit, based purely on the amount or lack there of in talent, that we are closer to 20-25 wins.....than making the playoffs like some on here have predicted.
 
HCP said:
But you unlike most on here, I respect your opinion. You have a bit of common sense. You would have to admit, based purely on the amount or lack there of in talent, that we are closer to 20-25 wins.....than making the playoffs like some on here have predicted.
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Luke, don't go to the dark side.
 
HCP said:
But you unlike most on here, I respect your opinion. You have a bit of common sense. You would have to admit, based purely on the amount or lack there of in talent, that we are closer to 20-25 wins.....than making the playoffs like some on here have predicted.
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Hey..we respect Nate's opinion too!
 
HCP said:
But you unlike most on here, I respect your opinion. You have a bit of common sense. You would have to admit, based purely on the amount or lack there of in talent, that we are closer to 20-25 wins.....than making the playoffs like some on here have predicted.
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I don't know if I'd say there is a lack of talent... because talent is a vague term. I think there is talent on this roster, but it's undeveloped talent. Guys like Vonleh, Harkless, and even Leonard are really in an unpolished stage of their careers. The problem I have is that I have no idea of how they're going to react to having consistent playing time. A lot of these guys have never gotten that opportunity. What if we have a situation like with Jermaine O'Neal where he just explodes once he's given a chance to show what he can do?

I don't think we are going to make the playoffs, but I don't think that's going to be from a lack of talent. I think what we lack is experience. We have a lot of youth. Take the Clippers game, for example. We were kicking the crap out of them.... and then we just slowly lost steam. That's really common for a young team. They can't pace themselves and keep the pressure for four quarters. I think that will happen a lot this year. There will be quarters of brilliance where everything is running like a well oiled machine... and then there will be quarters where virtually nothing is going in. That's just part of the process.

I'm not going to quibble over how many wins we get because I don't think it matters. I don't think we're going to make the playoffs, so that leaves us in the lottery. My hope is that we end up with a top 3 pick. Unfortunately that means a lot of losing, but I'm okay with that as long as we play the young guys and develop the talent we have.
 
Natebishop3 said:
I don't know if I'd say there is a lack of talent... because talent is a vague term. I think there is talent on this roster, but it's undeveloped talent. Guys like Vonleh, Harkless, and even Leonard are really in an unpolished stage of their careers. The problem I have is that I have no idea of how they're going to react to having consistent playing time. A lot of these guys have never gotten that opportunity. What if we have a situation like with Jermaine O'Neal where he just explodes once he's given a chance to show what he can do?

I don't think we are going to make the playoffs, but I don't think that's going to be from a lack of talent. I think what we lack is experience. We have a lot of youth. Take the Clippers game, for example. We were kicking the crap out of them.... and then we just slowly lost steam. That's really common for a young team. They can't pace themselves and keep the pressure for four quarters. I think that will happen a lot this year. There will be quarters of brilliance where everything is running like a well oiled machine... and then there will be quarters where virtually nothing is going in. That's just part of the process.

I'm not going to quibble over how many wins we get because I don't think it matters. I don't think we're going to make the playoffs, so that leaves us in the lottery. My hope is that we end up with a top 3 pick. Unfortunately that means a lot of losing, but I'm okay with that as long as we play the young guys and develop the talent we have.
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Your middle paragraph is EXACTLY what I've been preaching. We just aren't going to be able to close games out. Exciting brand of basketball and a great pick is what I'm looking forward to.
 
Natebishop3 said:
I don't know if I'd say there is a lack of talent... because talent is a vague term. I think there is talent on this roster, but it's undeveloped talent. Guys like Vonleh, Harkless, and even Leonard are really in an unpolished stage of their careers. The problem I have is that I have no idea of how they're going to react to having consistent playing time. A lot of these guys have never gotten that opportunity. What if we have a situation like with Jermaine O'Neal where he just explodes once he's given a chance to show what he can do?

I don't think we are going to make the playoffs, but I don't think that's going to be from a lack of talent. I think what we lack is experience. We have a lot of youth. Take the Clippers game, for example. We were kicking the crap out of them.... and then we just slowly lost steam. That's really common for a young team. They can't pace themselves and keep the pressure for four quarters. I think that will happen a lot this year. There will be quarters of brilliance where everything is running like a well oiled machine... and then there will be quarters where virtually nothing is going in. That's just part of the process.

I'm not going to quibble over how many wins we get because I don't think it matters. I don't think we're going to make the playoffs, so that leaves us in the lottery. My hope is that we end up with a top 3 pick. Unfortunately that means a lot of losing, but I'm okay with that as long as we play the young guys and develop the talent we have.
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Great post!! This is about as accurate as you can get in my book.

HCP said:
Your middle paragraph is EXACTLY what I've been preaching. We just aren't going to be able to close games out. Exciting brand of basketball and a great pick is what I'm looking forward to.
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That is NOT EXACTLY what you have been preaching... lol. Hell you post he quoted even said something different... LMAO! Consistency my friend!
We could quote a bunch of your posts where you say nothing close to this...;)
 
I dont care how many wins we get as long as we are playing the young guys and trying and not pulling a 76ers.
the biggest wild card imo is our capspace and what we do with it. Wev got a lot of open space to absorb players and im hoping to see it be used in an agressive manner to help teams make trades at the deadline and us getting picks or maybe a young prospect or two.
 
Good article

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/stor...rrated-teams-mvp-candidates-playoff-races-nba

Underrated: Portland Trail Blazers
No team has a better discrepancy between its RPM projection and its over-under line at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook than the Blazers, who are projected to win approximately 13 more games than the 27.5 Vegas foresees (complete RPM projections are at the bottom of this article). Again, there's remarkable consistency in the Portland forecast across a variety of projections.

Al-Farouq Aminu and Ed Davis, whose past production on a per-minute basis outstrips their modest salaries. RPM is also high on third-year shooting guard C.J. McCollum, who moves from a reserve role into the starting lineup.

Additionally, compared with most of the teams expected to post a win total in the 20s, the Blazers have a far better anchor in All-Star point guard Damian Lillard. Lillard finished 15th in #NBArank; the only other top-50 player on a team with a Westgate line below 30 wins is Andrew Wiggins of the Minnesota Timberwolves , who is 44th in #NBArank.

2014-15 Vs. 2015-16 Trail Blazers
POS 2014-15 STARTER RPM 2015-16 STARTER RPM
PG Damian Lillard 4.0 Damian Lillard 4.0
SG Wesley Matthews 0.4 C.J. McCollum 2.6
SF Nicolas Batum 0.4 Al-Farouq Aminu 1.8
PF LaMarcus Aldridge 3.5 Meyers Leonard -2.1
C Robin Lopez 1.5 Mason Plumlee -1.8
6M Arron Afflalo -2.9 Ed Davis -0.2
Total 6.9 4.3
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RPM projections
TEAM WINS SIM PLAYOFF% CHAMP%
Golden State 59.8 58.5 100% 33%
San Antonio 58.3 57.2 100% 18%
Cleveland 55.1 55.4 100% 29%
Houston 54.6 53.0 98% 6%
Oklahoma City 54.0 53.2 98% 4%
L.A. Clippers 53.3 51.2 97% 4%
Boston 47.8 48.5 96% 2%
Memphis 46.7 46.0 80% 0%
Chicago 44.8 45.4 87% 1%
Toronto 44.2 44.2 80% 0%
Washington 43.6 43.6 78% 0%
New Orleans 43.5 42.9 61% 0%
Indiana 42.9 43.4 76% 0%
Atlanta 42.1 42.6 73% 1%
Utah 41.6 40.5 46% 0%
Portland 40.7 39.7 40% 0%
Dallas 39.7 38.7 32% 0%
Miami 38.6 40.0 57% 0%
Detroit 38.2 39.0 49% 0%
Phoenix 38.1 37.6 26% 0%
Milwaukee 37.4 38.0 43% 0%
Sacramento 35.6 35.4 16% 0%
Charlotte 35.2 36.5 32% 0%
Orlando 33.7 34.7 23% 0%
Minnesota 29.8 29.8 4% 0%
New York 28.7 30.1 7% 0%
L.A. Lakers 28.7 28.8 2% 0%
Denver 27.6 27.7 1% 0%
Brooklyn 22.9 24.7 0% 0%
Philadelphia 22.7 23.8 1% 0%
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I agree making the west playoffs will be much easier this year.

Overrated: Race for 8th in the West
Not counting the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season, 2006-07 was the last time a Western Conference team made the playoffs with fewer than 45 wins. Over that span, accounting for the lockout, the West's eighth seeds have averaged 47 wins. I think this is the year that trend changes. The conference's top six teams are as strong as ever, but in part because of New Orleans' injuries there appears to be a big drop-off after that.

Simulations of the season using RPM's projections show the eighth seed in the West winning an average of 42 games. More stunningly, the typical ninth seed wins just 40 games, meaning a .500 playoff team is possible. Those figures don't account for the possibility of teams upgrading their rosters during the season in pursuit of a playoff spot, and perhaps one or two of the teams projected to win in the high 30s, such as Dallas, Phoenix and Portland, will jump up to challenge theUtah Jazz.

For now, however, making the West playoffs doesn't look as tough as in years past.
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blue9 said:
I looked up next year's Free Agent class, and here are the unrestricted free agents. A lot of them aren't even worth discussing, I've bolded the ones who we might have even the slightest chance of signing:

LBJ - won't sign here
Durant - won't sign here
Dwight - won't sign here
Drummond
Horford - won't sign here
Pau - won't sign here / too old
Wade - won't sign here / too old
Conley - not a position of need
DeRozan - blech
Noah - blech, too broken
Parsons - blech
Duncan - hahaha
Kobe - hahaha, won't sign here, too old, too broken
Jefferson - blech
Dirk - hahaha, won't sign here, too old
Rondo - not a position of need
Whiteside
Hibbert - blech
Clarkson - not a position of need
Jennings - not a position of need
Mosgov
Nic
Deng - blech, too old
Turner
Smoove - blech
Green
Johnson - too old
West - too old

I could go on, but it's pretty clear that we're not going to sign a superstar next summer, and even a star is a long-shot. In order to get another star/superstar or two we need to draft 'em or trade for 'em. And right now the only two stars that I can see potentially being on the trading block are Melo and Cousins. I hate (HATE!) Melo, but given the weakness of the wing position he'd probably be the most bang for our buck.
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Demar Derozan please!!
 
Orion Bailey said:
Great post!! This is about as accurate as you can get in my book.



That is NOT EXACTLY what you have been preaching... lol. Hell you post he quoted even said something different... LMAO! Consistency my friend!
We could quote a bunch of your posts where you say nothing close to this...;)
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What are you talking about bro? I said we were a young and athletic team that will be exciting to watch. Catch a few teams by surprise for some wins we shouldn't have got. We would hang in some games until the other team takes advantage of our inexperience and beat us. Not enough talent to pull out wins down the stretch, but will hopefully play an exciting brand of ball.
 
KingAlbertoJrSpeed said:
That is so completely wrong. CJ is one of the best shooting guards in the league. Plumlee is a quality TEAM USA player so obviously a quality NBA starter. Aminu is a quality starter who was Dallas' best player in last season's playoffs. Gerald Henderson was a quality NBA starter for Charlotte. Leonard will prove himself this year.
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Sheesh... if Cliff Alexander, Luis Montero and Pat Connaughton were starting I believe you'd say the same things about them.
 
HCP said:
What are you talking about bro? I said we were a young and athletic team that will be exciting to watch. Catch a few teams by surprise for some wins we shouldn't have got. We would hang in some games until the other team takes advantage of our inexperience and beat us. Not enough talent to pull out wins down the stretch, but will hopefully play an exciting brand of ball.
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It could have been your hacker. Ill sift through a few and quote them for you tonight. :)
 
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