Pelton: Trail Blazers Are NBA’s Most Underrated

[Draco]

IMO, barring injury (always have to add that caveat), I don't see this team finishing with a bad enough record to have a good shot at a top-3 pick. I think our best hope to avoid mediocrity is to have Dame continue his path to superstar ranks, have one other guy improve enough to become a realistic All-Star candidate within 3 years, sign a quality vet FA next summer with cap space, and hope that the rest of the ranks provide enough talent to look for a lopsided deal for an All-Star level player who's become disgruntled with his current team.

Good post. Yes if we can play at near .500 we could lure a free agent. I'm not talking about Durant level but more Paul Millsap from 2 years ago level when Atlanta first signed him. A young starter that develops to an allstar. Eventually have one of our young players become an allstar, or package a few of them in a trade for an allstar. Then we have 3 allstars and that is enough for the foundation of a contender.

A strategy such as that seems far more likely to bring us a championship than trying to be bad and get lucky enough to get a top3 pick and have it be a year with a superstar and have us pick the right player and have a supporting cast come together before Damian starts declining physically in 2-3 years.

There's also the consideration of what process we want in the meantime. Either strategy is likely to end without a championship. 96.7% of the league don't win a title every year. I'd rather the team tries to build through being competitive along the way.

 

[Draco]

Bill Simmons and his buddy both took the under on 26.5 wins for us this season.

https://soundcloud.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast

They also think all the west playoff teams from last season except Dallas make it; with OKC taking their place...

 

[Draco]

I looked up next year's Free Agent class, and here are the unrestricted free agents. A lot of them aren't even worth discussing, I've bolded the ones who we might have even the slightest chance of signing:

LBJ - won't sign here
Durant - won't sign here
Dwight - won't sign here
Drummond
Horford - won't sign here
Pau - won't sign here / too old
Wade - won't sign here / too old
Conley - not a position of need
DeRozan - blech
Noah - blech, too broken
Parsons - blech
Duncan - hahaha
Kobe - hahaha, won't sign here, too old, too broken
Jefferson - blech
Dirk - hahaha, won't sign here, too old
Rondo - not a position of need
Whiteside
Hibbert - blech
Clarkson - not a position of need
Jennings - not a position of need
Mosgov
Nic
Deng - blech, too old
Turner
Smoove - blech
Green
Johnson - too old
West - too old

I could go on, but it's pretty clear that we're not going to sign a superstar next summer, and even a star is a long-shot. In order to get another star/superstar or two we need to draft 'em or trade for 'em. And right now the only two stars that I can see potentially being on the trading block are Melo and Cousins. I hate (HATE!) Melo, but given the weakness of the wing position he'd probably be the most bang for our buck.

This is a list of has beens more than who could be good 3-4 years from now.

Think of last summer, who knew Khris Middleton, Jimmy Bulter, Draymond Green, Hassan Whiteside, Demarr Carroll would all be $15million+ per year players? Thats part of the fun this season seeing what current bench role players shock us and become above average starters.

 

[Draco]

Why are we getting 5 cards in texas holdem before the flop? That just threw my mind for a loop. :MARIS61:

Of course he meant Omaha5

 

[PDXFonz]

It's common sense at this point. We've had no chance to show what we can do, and are ranked near the bottom of almost every power ranking. Somebody name a cantidate for most underrated other than the Blazers.

 

[Draco]

After mentally crossing off all the bigs the only players I can see us interested in are:
Drummond
DeRozan
Nic
Turner
Green

The only one that really blows my skirt up is Drummond, and I still don't think he puts us over the top. Or is all that likely to sign with us. I also believe him when he says he wants to work with DET to give them more cap space next summer - I don't think he's going to welch-out like bitchmade Aldridge. But if he does I hope we sign him!

Drummond is restricted; there is zero chance Detroit lets him walk. Same with Beal. It'll play out the same as Jimmy Bulter or Kawhi Leonard.

I agree DeRozan and maybe Nic are possibilities. So much will change between now and next July with these lists.

 

[Draco]

42 wins in the West does not get you into the playoffs. That's more like the 10th seed

Historically yes. But we've never had a top6 so strong in the west and a middling pack in the conference so similar with major question marks but upside. I could certainly see it being the case this season. 6th seed has 55 wins and 8th seed is at 42.

 

[Draco]

If the East got better due in part to the Great Blazer Diaspora of 2015, the West might not feast on so many wins as they did before.

6 of the 7 best teams are all in the West, and the one east team likely coasts through the season; so the west conference is much stronger.

But compared to other seasons after those top 6 west teams the conference is much weaker 8-11.

 

[Draco]

I dont care how many wins we get as long as we are playing the young guys and trying and not pulling a 76ers.
the biggest wild card imo is our capspace and what we do with it. Wev got a lot of open space to absorb players and im hoping to see it be used in an agressive manner to help teams make trades at the deadline and us getting picks or maybe a young prospect or two.

Yeah that'd be nice; I'm sure Neil is hoping for something similar.

Problem is cap space has never been worth less than this season. Every team has oogles of cap room next summer. We might just have to settle for some second round picks as in the Cleveland trade from a few months ago.

 

[BigGameDamian]

Drummond is restricted; there is zero chance Detroit lets him walk. Same with Beal. It'll play out the same as Jimmy Bulter or Kawhi Leonard.

I agree DeRozan and maybe Nic are possibilities. So much will change between now and next July with these lists.

So new rumor has it that Nic Batum to the Blazers?

 

[Rhal]

Yeah that'd be nice; I'm sure Neil is hoping for something similar.

Problem is cap space has never been worth less than this season. Every team has oogles of cap room next summer. We might just have to settle for some second round picks as in the Cleveland trade from a few months ago.

Thats why I think itll only be worth something near the deadline helping teams do deals.

 

[Natebishop3]

So new rumor has it that Nic Batum to the Blazers?

I don't think you understand what a rumor is. If someone on this board says that Nic could be a possible target this summer, that's their opinion. They aren't sharing inside information.

 

[Strenuus]

So new rumor has it that Nic Batum to the Blazers?

That's not a rumor. *facepalm*

 

[SlyPokerDog]

The player physicality was up in the stratosphere. No ticky tac fouls

Exactly! Mo would have gotten suspended for months for the fight, lol.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Spurs two years ago?

Sounds great! Instead of a super star and 2 stars you think we should get the greatest PF ever, 2 HOF players and the greatest coach of this generation.

Sign me up!

 

[oldmangrouch]

Yeah that'd be nice; I'm sure Neil is hoping for something similar.

Problem is cap space has never been worth less than this season. Every team has oogles of cap room next summer. We might just have to settle for some second round picks as in the Cleveland trade from a few months ago.

Bingo.

Cap space has never been worth less. No big free agent signing, and little chance to leverage all that cap space in a trade. We are swimming in an an over-valued asset. Our one and only hope for dramatic improvement is to score a stud in the lotto.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

I think derozan is the only guy we would have a chance for. Otherwise we are gonna be the dumping team, where people take dumps on is with garbage and give us picks.

Derozan is from Cali, and so I think it's quite possible he would enjoy coming back to the west coast.

Unfortunately, if Kobe retires, the lakers will probably have major cap space too. And he'd probably pick them over us. So I think the only good chance we would have to get him would be to trade for him and hope he gels with lillard. Not a risk I'm willing to take in giving assets for a guy that could walk.

But derozan fits lillards timeline fine. And that would give us one on the brink superstar and a borderline star (who will be overpaid) in derozan.

 

[TBpup]

How many lottery picks do we need? We have like 5 of them already, and none older than 25. Sure we can use someone like Ben Simmons but even if we had the worst record in the league the chances of actually securing the #1 pick is low. I'd rather win. If Portland wins 40 games this season, they're well on their way.

Lots of Lottery picks but they are all mid to late round picks.

Dame #6
Vonleh #9
Aminu #8
Leonard #11
McCollum #10

That is a lot different than the potential of a Top-3 pick. Certainly nothing is guaranteed but the Superstars in this league, LeBron, Durant, Harden, Davis are all Top-3 or better. Only Curry at #7 is out of that range and most would say LeBron is still the MVP and Durant wasn't healthy last year so it was an incomplete field.

Since 1980 (35 years) , the Finals MVP has been a top 2 Draft Pick 26 times in 35 years. That is not coincidence.

 

[KingSpeed]

LoL..I guess that would make D'Angelo Russell a superstar also.

How so? Russell sucks. What does he have to do with CJ?

Man... I'm completely staying away from predicting how many wins.

1) Because I don't really care if we win games this season. My goals are completely about the development of our talent. If wins come in the process, great, if not...... more lotto balls.

2) This team is a complete mystery. It's like dealing you five cards in Texas Holdem, NOT turning them over, and then dealing the flop and asking me to bet, all without seeing the cards in my hand. Our known players are like the flop, but right now the rest of our roster is like a bunch of unknown cards in my hand that I can't see. I have no clue how we're going to play together. I have no clue how well Dame and CJ are going to play once the action matters. I have no clue how well our really young guys are going to perform. I really can't pin a number on this team.

Preseason gave us a great look at how they'll play together. Wins and losses don't matter in preseason but the chemistry was clearly there. Dame has gotten these guys on the same page. I don't think that is an unknown. And yes, Texas Hold Em is only 2 cards and there is a woman who once won a whole tournament without looking at her cards. I guess you didn't watch preseason. We do know what a lot of our cards are.

But you unlike most on here, I respect your opinion. You have a bit of common sense. You would have to admit, based purely on the amount or lack there of in talent, that we are closer to 20-25 wins.....than making the playoffs like some on here have predicted.

My God. 20-25 wins? Lack of talent? You're so wrong. We have more talent this year. And we will win 20+ by All Star break. I think people are underestimating Stotts. He deserves a lot of credit for the last two seasons and he is still here.

42 wins in the West does not get you into the playoffs. That's more like the 10th seed

It might get us into playoffs this year as other have stated.

I think derozan is the only guy we would have a chance for. Otherwise we are gonna be the dumping team, where people take dumps on is with garbage and give us picks.

Derozan is from Cali, and so I think it's quite possible he would enjoy coming back to the west coast.

Unfortunately, if Kobe retires, the lakers will probably have major cap space too. And he'd probably pick them over us. So I think the only good chance we would have to get him would be to trade for him and hope he gels with lillard. Not a risk I'm willing to take in giving assets for a guy that could walk.

But derozan fits lillards timeline fine. And that would give us one on the brink superstar and a borderline star (who will be overpaid) in derozan.

CJ is better than DeRozan.

Lots of Lottery picks but they are all mid to late round picks.

Dame #6
Vonleh #9
Aminu #8
Leonard #11
McCollum #10

That is a lot different than the potential of a Top-3 pick. Certainly nothing is guaranteed but the Superstars in this league, LeBron, Durant, Harden, Davis are all Top-3 or better. Only Curry at #7 is out of that range and most would say LeBron is still the MVP and Durant wasn't healthy last year so it was an incomplete field.

Since 1980 (35 years) , the Finals MVP has been a top 2 Draft Pick 26 times in 35 years. That is not coincidence.

But 9 times, he wasn't. You don't need a top 3 pick to win a title, but if you like stats, when was the last time a team won a championship with a top 3 pick that THEY DRAFTED? Duncan is it, and he was drafted almost 20 years ago. Sure players like LeBron and Shaq have won titles but not for the teams that drafted them. And three of the greatest recent NBA championship winning stars- Kobe, Dirk, Curry, and Wade- weren't top 3 picks. As I said, scroll through the top 3 picks of the last 20 years and only ONE of them brought that team a championship. One.

 

[BigGameDamian]

How so? Russell sucks. What does he have to do with CJ?



Preseason gave us a great look at how they'll play together. Wins and losses don't matter in preseason but the chemistry was clearly there. Dame has gotten these guys on the same page. I don't think that is an unknown. And yes, Texas Hold Em is only 2 cards and there is a woman who once won a whole tournament without looking at her cards. I guess you didn't watch preseason. We do know what a lot of our cards are.



My God. 20-25 wins? Lack of talent? You're so wrong. We have more talent this year. And we will win 20+ by All Star break. I think people are underestimating Stotts. He deserves a lot of credit for the last two seasons and he is still here.


It might get us into playoffs this year as other have stated.




CJ is better than DeRozan.



But 9 times, he wasn't. You don't need a top 3 pick to win a title, but if you like stats, when was the last time a team won a championship with a top 3 pick that THEY DRAFTED? Duncan is it, and he was drafted almost 20 years ago. Sure players like LeBron and Shaq have won titles but not for the teams that drafted them. And three of the greatest recent NBA championship winning stars- Kobe, Dirk, Curry, and Wade- weren't top 3 picks. As I said, scroll through the top 3 picks of the last 20 years and only ONE of them brought that team a championship. One.

I thought CJ was the best SG in the league.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

I think derozan is better than Cj for now. But good god, derozan, Cj and lillard would be a horrendously bad defensive backcourt

 

[PCmor7]

Keeping Montero over Pressey throws all these projections off.

 

[KingSpeed]

I thought CJ was the best SG in the league.

He's top 5. His skills rival Roy's.

 

[Draco]

But 9 times, he wasn't. You don't need a top 3 pick to win a title, but if you like stats, when was the last time a team won a championship with a top 3 pick that THEY DRAFTED? Duncan is it, and he was drafted almost 20 years ago. Sure players like LeBron and Shaq have won titles but not for the teams that drafted them. And three of the greatest recent NBA championship winning stars- Kobe, Dirk, Curry, and Wade- weren't top 3 picks. As I said, scroll through the top 3 picks of the last 20 years and only ONE of them brought that team a championship. One.

Wow great stat. Since the creation of the NBA draft lottery 30 years ago in 1985 the Spurs are the only franchise to have the #1 pick win a title for them.

 

[TBpup]

Wow great stat. Since the creation of the NBA draft lottery 30 years ago in 1985 the Spurs are the only franchise to have the #1 pick win a title for them.

So what is more likely:

The Blazers get a Top-3 pick that is an impact player from the Lottory when they have a chance to do so?

OR

A Top-3 player from another team wants to come to Portland and forces a trade or goes there on his own via Free agency like Shaq/Lebron?

 

[Draco]

So what is more likely:

The Blazers get a Top-3 pick that is an impact player from the Lottory when they have a chance to do so?

OR

A Top-3 player from another team wants to come to Portland and forces a trade or goes there on his own via Free agency like Shaq/Lebron?

Who was the top 3 pick on the Warriors? Or Mavs? Or Lakers? Or Celtics? Or Pistons?

The majority of the title winning groups in the last 15 years didn't have a top3 pick leading the way.

 

[TBpup]

Warriors - Great season from Curry....every playoff opponent had major injuries.
Lakers - Both Kobe and Shaq forced trades to LA. That won't happen in Portland.
Pistons - Only title without a superstar in decades...certainly not the norm.
Celtics - Two HoF's added to a 3rd for one title. Nothing like the Drafted Celtics run in the 80's. Let's see NeO do that.
Mavs - Greatest Euro to every play led them to 1 title. Sounds more flukish than a regular occurrence.

Portland is not warm weather or with a favorable tax climate. Players are not going to 'force' their way to come here and it is just not a destination to play no matter how much we like the city or love our team. Fandom and reality do not often mix and that is perfectly understandable but titles are brought by Superstars and Portland doesn't have one yet. Dame is a 'Star' but Superstars are LeBron, Curry, Harden, and 1st Team All-NBA types. Dame isn't there (maybe yet, maybe ever) and I don't see another Superstar on this roster.

So you have to go get one....and that is much more likely for Portland to come via the Draft through players like Oden, Roy and Lillard and hope injuries don't derail their progress.

 

[blue9]

Warriors - Great season from Curry....every playoff opponent had major injuries.
Lakers - Both Kobe and Shaq forced trades to LA. That won't happen in Portland.
Pistons - Only title without a superstar in decades...certainly not the norm.
Celtics - Two HoF's added to a 3rd for one title. Nothing like the Drafted Celtics run in the 80's. Let's see NeO do that.
Mavs - Greatest Euro to every play led them to 1 title. Sounds more flukish than a regular occurrence.

Portland is not warm weather or with a favorable tax climate. Players are not going to 'force' their way to come here and it is just not a destination to play no matter how much we like the city or love our team. Fandom and reality do not often mix and that is perfectly understandable but titles are brought by Superstars and Portland doesn't have one yet. Dame is a 'Star' but Superstars are LeBron, Curry, Harden, and 1st Team All-NBA types. Dame isn't there (maybe yet, maybe ever) and I don't see another Superstar on this roster.

So you have to go get one....and that is much more likely for Portland to come via the Draft through players like Oden, Roy and Lillard and hope injuries don't derail their progress.

PREACH!

 

[dviss1]

More like too short to be true.

There is absolutely no logic in this post....

 

[BBert]

Sounds great! Instead of a super star and 2 stars you think we should get the greatest PF ever, 2 HOF players and the greatest coach of this generation.

Sign me up!

Unorthodox? Sure. But it worked for San Antonio. It just might work for the Blazers.