Politics People in this country

[andalusian]

When it comes to polls I realize that after 66 years I've never been polled about an election.....I'm guessing few of us have...and there are many who would not if asked....my kind of folks usually..I don't think polls represent much other than those polled probably have a facebook account which I don't have..polls don't account for apathetic citizens or people like el prez who just get giddy about watching it all crumble.

Let's get something here straight, mathematically, binomial distribution(**) polls done with a large enough sample size, given a true SRS(*) - have shown to be very reliably mathematically.

The question you have to ask is how reliable these polls are as far as being truly SRS these polls are and how leading/misleading the questions are.

Since political polls of that nature, in the electoral vote system are not cheap to perform - a lot of the sites, like 538 try to do a poll of polls as a way to smooth the "bad polls" information - but we really can not tell how bad the original polls are.

So, the issue with the polls is not that one has not been included in them - it is that you do not know how scientifically unbiased they are.

(*) https://web.ma.utexas.edu/users/mks/statmistakes/SRS.html
(**) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

 

[Chris Craig]

So if I was running against Trump for supreme ruler of S2, you would vote for Trump!?!?!

S2 already has a dict...er supreme ruler

 

[riverman]

Let's get something here straight, mathematically, binomial distribution(**) polls done with a large enough sample size, given a true SRS(*) - have shown to be very reliably mathematically.

Then why arent they accurate over the last two elections? I'd think presidential elections would be a large enough sample size....I know they're a formula and popular, I just never trusted them to represent the whole collective accurately

 

[andalusian]

Then why arent they accurate over the last two elections? I'd think presidential elections would be a large enough sample size....I know they're a formula and popular, I just never trusted them to represent the whole collective accurately

I suspect it is not a true SRS sample or biased questions.

 

[wizenheimer]

Then why arent they accurate over the last two elections? I'd think presidential elections would be a large enough sample size....I know they're a formula and popular, I just never trusted them to represent the whole collective accurately

on a national level, 538's adjusted aggregate of polls has been fairly accurate. In 2016, IIRC, they said Clinton had a lead a little under 3%; might have been about 2.7%. She ended up winning the popular vote by about 2.4%

their last adjusted aggregate was around 7%. When all the votes are in Biden may win by over 6 million votes. That would be somewhere in the 4-5% range. And there is always a stated margin of error of around 3%

so yeah, the national aggregates of polls have been well within the margin of error

the problems come in state and district polls. Many of the highest quality polling companies do not do state polls. That's generally left to less reliable polling firms. And with the stupid fucking electoral college in place, you end up with these nail-biting nightmares and battalions of lawyers

don't blame pollsters for this...blame that gawddam electoral college....it sucks ass

 

[riverman]

on a national level, 538's adjusted aggregate of polls has been fairly accurate. In 2016, IIRC, they said Clinton had a lead a little under 3%; might have been about 2.7%. She ended up winning the popular vote by about 2.4%

their last adjusted aggregate was around 7%. When all the votes are in Biden may win by over 6 million votes. That would be somewhere in the 4-5% range. And there is always a stated margin of error of around 3%

so yeah, the national aggregates of polls have been well within the margin of error

the problems come in state and district polls. Many of the highest quality polling companies do not do state polls. That's generally left to less reliable polling firms. And with the stupid fucking electoral college in place, you end up with these nail-biting nightmares and battalions of lawyers

don't blame pollsters for this...blame that gawddam electoral college....it sucks ass

I'm actually not blaming pollsters....I'm saying I doubt polls represent me throughout MY lifetime...as to how polling companies dole out results....I have no idea but thank you for the info...it's interesting. I'm also someone who's always refused to fill out the "race" questionaire when I fill out a form of any kind....my idea of walkin' the walk. Race shouldn't be a question. I also think politics could be better served as something not trotted out and paraded around...I never put up political signs or wear buttons or bumper stickers...keep folks guessing is my motto

 

[wizenheimer]

I'm actually not blaming pollsters....I'm saying I doubt polls represent me throughout MY lifetime...as to how polling companies dole out results....I have no idea but thank you for the info...it's interesting. I'm also someone who's always refused to fill out the "race" questionaire when I fill out a form of any kind....my idea of walkin' the walk. Race shouldn't be a question.

the olympics has an event where the race is walking

 

[riverman]

the olympics has an event where the race is walking

Just got back from my 4 mile power walk.....!

 

[donkiez]

And then realize that statistically at least half of the stupid people are likely registered Democrat. Bashing the intelligence of the voters who disagree with you doesn’t accomplish anything. People vote the way they do for lots of personal reasons. Voting for Trump doesn’t necessarily mean you like him, but you may feel that policy differences keep you from voting Dem.

Trump supporters have not been the olive branch type of group so they can go get bent as far as I am concerned. I am not worried in the least with how they feel about how I think of them.

 

[MARIS61]

Half of Americans just voted to return to the decades-long practice of Americans coming home in body bags every day.

Some are stupid obviously, and a lot are simply intellectually lazy, but the rest can't hide behind those excuses.

They're sociopathic narcissists who deserve every bad thing that ever happens to them. You know who you are, because you're definitely not stupid.

 

[MARIS61]

I'm not an expert in politics by any means, but is't that basically a vote FOR Trump though?

No.

The Libertarian Party candidate for POTUS, heavily financed by the DNC, is the tiny vote difference in at least 2 states at the moment. DNC really punked some morons.

 

[riverman]

Half of Americans just voted to return to the decades-long practice of Americans coming home in body bags every day.

In my family and my sons everyone comes home in either a Nissan, a Toyota or a Subaru

 

[RipCityDSCPL]

You vote for the person that you want speaking for you. To be your voice plain and simple.

Well then, going by you're own words. I don't vote so I guess that makes me the smartest one of you all since neither one of these corrupt geriatric fucks will be speaking for me.

#fuckpolitics

 

[Lanny]

Whoa. Saying stupid solves nothing.

Trump has become a cult leader. I am bemused by how a totally incompetent, totally corrupt narcissist manages this, but cult leaders are not great men (very rarely women). Great people don't need or want cult worship. Look at Bush 2. His popularity tanked when it became clear the Iraq war would be a matter of years and not pay for itself, Katrina, and economic collapse. Trump's numbers don't change however many Americans die. His failures are due to deep state conspiracy. Or they just don't believe facts. No matter if his policies hurt them. Gods often hurt their worshippers and need to be propitiated.

People are afraid and unhappy. It will magically disappear can be a more attractive message than it's going to be a hard winter.

Sure, it might not solve anything but it sure is cathartic.

 

[Lanny]

So if I was running against Trump for supreme ruler of S2, you would vote for Trump!?!?!

Sorry, Sly is already supreme ruler of S2, therefor those votes are invalid and names are being taken by Sly. Beware the knock on the door late at night.

 

[stampedehero]

Completely agree.
I can't stand Trump - because he's a arrogant, corrupt ass.
I couldn't vote for Biden - because he's corrupt and flip/flops on almost every issue.
Thus, I had to vote for the Libertarians.

..........and join the hundreds that cannot make a difference. I wish the Libertarians had a strong following and billions of dollars like those "other" parties. We DO NEED three four or five parties to form a democracy. We have political malignancy and chaos.

 

[stampedehero]

Walk into a Walmart or a DMV. You'll see how stupid people in this country truly are.

Add Trump rallies.........

 

[BlazerWookee]

Let's get something here straight, mathematically, binomial distribution(**) polls done with a large enough sample size, given a true SRS(*) - have shown to be very reliably mathematically.

The question you have to ask is how reliable these polls are as far as being truly SRS these polls are and how leading/misleading the questions are.

Since political polls of that nature, in the electoral vote system are not cheap to perform - a lot of the sites, like 538 try to do a poll of polls as a way to smooth the "bad polls" information - but we really can not tell how bad the original polls are.

So, the issue with the polls is not that one has not been included in them - it is that you do not know how scientifically unbiased they are.

(*) https://web.ma.utexas.edu/users/mks/statmistakes/SRS.html
(**) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution

Thanks for this. I've been trying (and failing miserably) to explain this to people.

 

[BlazerWookee]

S2 already has a dict...er supreme ruler

Dict...taster?

 

[Lanny]

Dict...taster?

You'd better treat his lordship kindly.

 

[Natebishop3]

Sorry, Sly is already supreme ruler of S2, therefor those votes are invalid and names are being taken by Sly. Beware the knock on the door late at night.

Sly could meet an untimely end. Accidents happen. He might accidentally fall down some stairs.... or fall off his roof..... or fall off a tall building. You just never know