Playoffs vs #4 Pick

[TBpup]

Why? Because that means that our current roster didn't improve like we thought. So instead of 5-7 players who have improved, we have 5-7 players that suck with one lotto pick. Id rather have the 5-7 players that improve to be part of the long term plan or be moved while value is high.

I just am at a loss as to why people would prefer to have 1 POTENTIAL lotto pick tossed in with an all star and a bunch of scrubs over 5-7 improved role players that can be part of a long term plan and/or moved for pcs to the long term plan while their value is high?
Id much rather have the 5-7 players. Give us more flexibility.

I'm all for improving these players. In fact, I think you can do that AND get a high Lottery pick. Instead of Dame/CJ taking 30-40 shots a game, get Crabbe, Vonleh, Harkless, Plumlee and Aminu more shots. The results won't likely be as good right now but it will help them develop, you really get to see what you have, and you probably loose a couple extra games along the way. With #4-#10 being so close, a couple extra losses won't make any difference other than lost opportunity for a historically better shot at a much better player.

 

[BBert]

Why? Because that means that our current roster didn't improve like we thought. So instead of 5-7 players who have improved, we have 5-7 players that suck with one lotto pick. Id rather have the 5-7 players that improve to be part of the long term plan or be moved while value is high.

I just am at a loss as to why people would prefer to have 1 POTENTIAL lotto pick tossed in with an all star and a bunch of scrubs over 5-7 improved role players that can be part of a long term plan and/or moved for pcs to the long term plan while their value is high?
Id much rather have the 5-7 players. Give us more flexibility.

Why can't we have a high-ish lotto pick AND 5-7 improved players? I think we are out of the lottery next season and into the playoffs precisely because many of the players we have will improve, even if we don't hit pay dirt in free agency and trades. Both of which are also possibilities. To recap: Improved Players + Free Agent + Trade + High draft pick = Pretty f'ing good team next year and beyond. The eternal flame of optimism burns bright!

 

[Orion Bailey]

Not making the playoffs doesn't mean necessarily that we didn't improve. Not many people thought this team was good enough to make the playoffs this season, so I'm not sure why you think that's that measuring stick.

Playoffs isnt the measuring stick for me, but it seems to be for many others who say if we make it we are stuck in mediocrity. I just don't agree with that.

Why can't we have a high-ish lotto pick AND 5-7 improved players? I think we are out of the lottery next season and into the playoffs precisely because many of the players we have will improve, even if we don't hit pay dirt in free agency and trades. Both of which are also possibilities. To recap: Improved Players + Free Agent + Trade + High draft pick = Pretty f'ing good team next year and beyond. The eternal flame of optimism burns bright!

If our guys continue to improve this season do you really think we will maintain a lotto pick? We are only a few spots out of the #8 spot as it is. In order for us to regress back into lotto favorability, I would imagine no one else can continue to improve and a couple players will have to regress.

Sure, Id love a lotto pick and have 5-7 guys improve, but do you actually think that's realistic with the west not being as strong anymore? If we improve much more we have the #8 spot it sure seems.

 

[BBert]

Playoffs isnt the measuring stick for me, but it seems to be for many others who say if we make it we are stuck in mediocrity. I just don't agree with that.



If our guys continue to improve this season do you really think we will maintain a lotto pick? We are only a few spots out of the #8 spot as it is. In order for us to regress back into lotto favorability, I would imagine no one else can continue to improve and a couple players will have to regress.

Sure, Id love a lotto pick and have 5-7 guys improve, but do you actually think that's realistic with the west not being as strong anymore? If we improve much more we have the #8 spot it sure seems.

If our guys improve that much and play the team out of the lottery, I'm not going to lose sleep over "losing" the pick. Olshey will just have to work harder in the off season.

 

[Orion Bailey]

If our guys improve that much and play the team out of the lottery, I'm not going to lose sleep over "losing" the pick. Olshey will just have to work harder in the off season.

See??? That's what Im sayin, yet I feel most think im crazy.

 

[BBert]

See??? That's what Im sayin, yet I feel most think im crazy.

Only those who have met you.

 

[Eastoff]

See??? That's what Im sayin, yet I feel most think im crazy.

Not crazy, it's just unlikely

 

[Orion Bailey]

Only those who have met you.

Boy do I have those on here fooled who HAVENT met me then!!! lol

 

[Portland2014]

How is this even a question?
Get swept by Golden State and losing the pick would be a terrible damage for the franchise.
The fourth pick would be nothing but a good thing.

 

[rasheedfan2005]

How is this even a question?
Get swept by Golden State and losing the pick would be a terrible damage for the franchise.
The fourth pick would be nothing but a good thing.

Unless we pick oden or bowie. Then we will be a laughing stock.

 

[ripcity67]

Unless we pick oden or bowie. Then we will be a laughing stock.

Wow, so we should never use a high pick again due to fear of making wrong choice.

 

[BBert]

Unless we pick oden or bowie. Then we will be a laughing stock.

That would never happen.

 

[selloutking]

I keep having this thought of us doing well enough that some player on a different team looks at what we did and says to themselves "man, that team with ME on it could make some serious noise" and then get here at any cost they could. Are there really no players like that anymore?

 

[Pinwheel1]

Who are we targeting again with the 4th pick? I am sure I will be much more excited about these guys in March than I am now, but the ones I have seen so far are a long ways away from helping us out any time soon. What if they decide to stay in school another year?

Maybe improving enough to make the playoffs, but getting swept by the Warriors isn't that bad. Maybe it would be the difference in swaying a FA to sign with us because they think we are real close to being a contender. Maybe they might think they are the missing piece. Not saying this would be the case, but it is possible.

But I admit I would not be bummed about getting a Jalylen Brown or a Brandon Ingram or a Jamaal Murray. (and of course Ben Simmons)

 

[handiman]

That would never happen.

Third time's the charm...

Who are we targeting again with the 4th pick?

Well, even if we finish with the 4th worse record, we could still either move up in the lottery or combine the pick with another player for a pretty enticing trade package. It's a very high value chip that's basically free, on the contingency of not making the playoffs.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Third time's the charm...



Well, even if we finish with the 4th worse record, we could still either move up in the lottery

True but that's not what the thread topic is about. It says the 4th "pick".

 

[handiman]

True but that's not what the thread topic is about. It says the 4th "pick".

Fair point, but the only two ways of ending up with the 4th pick are having the 4th worse record, or a top-3 slot that got bumped back by one or more teams moving up in the lottery. And since the #4 spot is pretty likely to move up historically, I consider it a strong possibility that we would end up picking 3rd or better if we finished at #4.

 

[rasheedfan2005]

Wow, so we should never use a high pick again due to fear of making wrong choice.

point is banking on a lotto pick is just a crap shoot like anything else. people seem to think a top 5 pick makes us a contender but we have no idea if the pick will develop just like we have no idea if some of the current young talent will develop.

 

[rasheedfan2005]

we could draft ben simmons and his knees could explode. this is why winning and competing is the best choice. if we suck then we get a pick to try and help. if we make the playoffs then we get 4-5 games of playoff experience for our young guys.

 

[BBert]

we could draft ben simmons and his knees could explode. this is why winning and competing is the best choice. if we suck then we get a pick to try and help. if we make the playoffs then we get 4-5 games of playoff experience for our young guys.

The same could happen to any player currently on the team. Or a free agent. Or someone we trade for.

Or not.

That's why you play the game.

 

[Sinobas]

Tell me wy on earth we'd want to get into the playoffs as the 8th seed, loose our 1st round draft pick and be cannon fodder for the GS Warriors in the 1st round? The Blazers couldn't win that series of their right thumbs depended on it. Please don't make the playoffs Portland.

 

[HolyBackboard]

Blazers might not have a choice. The West is horrible this year, especially at the bottom and a lot of those teams vying for a playoff spot early on (Utah, New Orleans, Phoenix) have or are experiencing injuries to key players. Factor in the Lakers being much worse than most projected and the Wolves being a year or two away and that leaves ... the Blazers.

We have the best player of any team fighting for that eight seed (Lillard) and McCollum's not far behind. Also, take into consideration how many road games we've already played, and frankly, I'd be surprised if we didn't end up in the postseason.

 

[Sinobas]

They actually should have a solid footing in the 8th spot already, if it were not for all of those close games they blew.

It does look like Portland has a good shot at making the playoffs. Oh well, they're going to have a lot of moola to resign free agents. If Stotts wants a stretch four so bad, let Leonard walk and sign Ryan Anderson. Then maybe get a guy like Horford.

 

[brendanjames]

Basketball purgatory exists for clubs with a bad attitude. And a losing culture like tanking is how you get to purgatory.

Sent from my SM-J110F using Tapatalk

 

[BonesJones]

Getting a top 5 pick might not mean shit.. Look at drafts from the past couple years and some of the players drafted:

In 2012:
MKG 2nd
Waiters 4th
T-Rob 5th
2013:
Bennett 1st
C. Zeller 4th
2014
Gordon 4th
Exum 5th

It's more likely that we get a bench role player type that we could find in free agency anyways. To be a playoff team as young as we are would do wonders for us when it comes to possible free agents. Or we can be a losing team in a small market trying to bank on a star in the draft to just get back to the playoffs anyway.

 

[TBpup]

Getting a top 5 pick might not mean shit.. Look at drafts from the past couple years and some of the players drafted:

In 2012:
MKG 2nd
Waiters 4th
T-Rob 5th
2013:
Bennett 1st
C. Zeller 4th
2014
Gordon 4th
Exum 5th

It's more likely that we get a bench role player type that we could find in free agency anyways. To be a playoff team as young as we are would do wonders for us when it comes to possible free agents. Or we can be a losing team in a small market trying to bank on a star in the draft to just get back to the playoffs anyway.

Of course there is no guarantee....but the vast majority of Superstars in this league were drafted in the top 5. I hope the Blazers make the Playoffs too but not as a 35 win team as is the current projection for the #8 seed.

As for the $$$ to spend in the off-season, a ton of teams have cap space with the cap going up so high so that means almost nothing. The West is on the decline and this was the one year chance to get a very good piece to go with Dame/CJ for years to come. Now it's up to development of players like Meyers/Crabbe/Aminu/Harkles/Plumlee/Vonleh.....depending on who stays.

 

[BonesJones]

Of course there is no guarantee....but the vast majority of Superstars in this league were drafted in the top 5. I hope the Blazers make the Playoffs too but not as a 35 win team as is the current projection for the #8 seed.

As for the $$$ to spend in the off-season, a ton of teams have cap space with the cap going up so high so that means almost nothing. The West is on the decline and this was the one year chance to get a very good piece to go with Dame/CJ for years to come. Now it's up to development of players like Meyers/Crabbe/Aminu/Harkles/Plumlee/Vonleh.....depending on who stays.

yeah but making the playoffs means we have less distance to go to being a contender and means our pieces have more value. That means Olshey can be more aggressive on the trade market. That also means that free agents will actually take us seriously. Everyone says that it doesnt matter because everyone has cap space but we'll have more of it. Plus, we'll be able to keep our ouch next year in a deeper draft, so really its a wash on that front.

We just got to acquire the right guys. We have nice depth right now. We can build a really talented team based on signing free agents (like Derozen or Whiteside) that we could test run or flip at the flip next year for an all star like Cousins, all while continuing to develop Dame and CJ.

Or we can draft a guy like Poeltl at 7 or 8 and hope he becomes a solid contributor and then hope to make playoffs next year and lose our pick then... Which doesnt really make sense because we'll be a year behind where we'll be if we make the playoffs this year, all for a probable bench piece...

 

[blue9]

point is banking on a lotto pick is just a crap shoot like anything else. people seem to think a top 5 pick makes us a contender but we have no idea if the pick will develop just like we have no idea if some of the current young talent will develop.

But having the pick at least gives us a better shot at being a contender - or at least better. Not having the pick puts us much further away from that goal.
This whole "the draft is a crap shoot" argument is dumb. Your argument against obtaining an asset is that nothing is guaranteed - which is just the way of the world, not an argument.

The two choices available to us are:

1 - Have an asset.
2 - Don't have an asset.

Is there anyone that thinks choice #2 is better than choice #1?

 

[e_blazer]

But having the pick at least gives us a better shot at being a contender - or at least better. Not having the pick puts us much further away from that goal.
This whole "the draft is a crap shoot" argument is dumb. Your argument against obtaining an asset is that nothing is guaranteed - which is just the way of the world, not an argument.

The two choices available to us are:

1 - Have an asset.
2 - Don't have an asset.

Is there anyone that thinks choice #2 is better than choice #1?

That is hardly a fair summary of the position that the Blazers are in. First, with respect to the draft pick owed Denver, it's top-14 protected this year and next. If the Blazers tank and all goes according to your rosy 2016 draft scenarios and we get the missing ingredient, there's virtually no chance the Blazers are bad enough next year to maintain their 2017 pick. So, at best, it's a choice of have an asset this year or have an asset next year. Next, you get into weighing the value of the assets. Right now, the Blazers have the 10th worst record in the league. Of the teams below them, maybe the Pelicans and Nuggets (if they get healthy) have a chance to improve significantly the second half of the season, and the rest of the teams suck and have even more incentive to tank than do the Blazers. Barring ping pong ball miracles, the Blazers are probably looking at an 8-10 pick. Maybe that turns into a CJ, but more likely it's a Meyers, especially if they're drafting for a position of need and go after a scoring big man. That means 4-5 years before that guy is likely to be ready to contribute significantly to a playoff run and it's a crap-shoot as to whether he's a star or a journeyman-level player. Lillard is 29-30 years old by that time and we've wasted his prime years. Color me not enthused at all by that team-building program.

I think by far the smarter play is to try to use our existing asset of huge cap space this season to work a lopsided deal at the deadline. Whether that's Ryan Anderson, Brook Lopez, or someone else, I don't know, but I do know that that guy is more likely to be a useful asset within Lillard's prime years than a mid-lottery rookie is. I think trying to win now and adding a player like that makes Portland a dramatically more attractive FA destination this summer. Will that play out and get us an impact player? I don't know, but the old crappola that Portland can't attract FA's is just one of those statements that doesn't really mean much because there haven't been many years that the Blazers had cap space and an attractive team that would appeal to guys wanting to win. I think that this plan is more likely than the tanking scenario to get Portland relevant in the prime of Lillard's career.

 

[blue9]

That is hardly a fair summary of the position that the Blazers are in. First, with respect to the draft pick owed Denver, it's top-14 protected this year and next. If the Blazers tank and all goes according to your rosy 2016 draft scenarios and we get the missing ingredient, there's virtually no chance the Blazers are bad enough next year to maintain their 2017 pick. So, at best, it's a choice of have an asset this year or have an asset next year. Next, you get into weighing the value of the assets. Right now, the Blazers have the 10th worst record in the league. Of the teams below them, maybe the Pelicans and Nuggets (if they get healthy) have a chance to improve significantly the second half of the season, and the rest of the teams suck and have even more incentive to tank than do the Blazers. Barring ping pong ball miracles, the Blazers are probably looking at an 8-10 pick. Maybe that turns into a CJ, but more likely it's a Meyers, especially if they're drafting for a position of need and go after a scoring big man. That means 4-5 years before that guy is likely to be ready to contribute significantly to a playoff run and it's a crap-shoot as to whether he's a star or a journeyman-level player. Lillard is 29-30 years old by that time and we've wasted his prime years. Color me not enthused at all by that team-building program.

I think by far the smarter play is to try to use our existing asset of huge cap space this season to work a lopsided deal at the deadline. Whether that's Ryan Anderson, Brook Lopez, or someone else, I don't know, but I do know that that guy is more likely to be a useful asset within Lillard's prime years than a mid-lottery rookie is. I think trying to win now and adding a player like that makes Portland a dramatically more attractive FA destination this summer. Will that play out and get us an impact player? I don't know, but the old crappola that Portland can't attract FA's is just one of those statements that doesn't really mean much because there haven't been many years that the Blazers had cap space and an attractive team that would appeal to guys wanting to win. I think that this plan is more likely than the tanking scenario to get Portland relevant in the prime of Lillard's career.

You're making a TON of assumptions that can't be made. The post is about having the #4 pick or making the Playoffs. And that boils down to:

Having an asset, or
Not having an asset

Since so many peoples arguments for the Playoffs hinge on internal improvement, that must be applied in both scenarios. Getting a draft pick doesn't negate internal improvement. So, next season, a team with both internal improvement AND a draft pick will (should) be better than a team with just internal improvement. And given that we'll have that improvement regardless of whether we retain our pick this year, it stands to reason that next years pick will be worse than this year's pick. Losing a good pick to retain a worse pick is not a good plan.

All that said, I'm in no way saying we should tank. But we absolutely should not be selling the future for a shot at a 1-and-done Playoff appearance. And to me, selling the future means making a mediocre trade like those you described (Anderson, Lopez) and/or playing for the win at the expense of development. Development is the #1 goal this season, and if we actually took it seriously it has a higher chance of paying dividends by increasing internal improvement and potentially putting us in a better draft position.