Playoffs vs #4 Pick

[TBpup]

New Orleans currently holds the #4 pick but they are starting to play better with some of their players getting healthy and I don't think they stay there for long. Philadelphia and the Lakers are locked into #1 and #2 right now so it's from there down that has fluidity.

Portland is in an interesting spot. In previous years, they would already be way out of the West Playoff race as it often took 50 wins to get in but the West is much weaker this year after Golden St and San Antonio and Portland finds themselves 1 game out of the #4 Lottery position but also only 1 win out of the #8 playoff spot. Now they are 5 losses behind Utah so it's not like they are knocking on the door but it's not unrealistically out of reach either with all the home games coming up.

As the GM, do you want them to make a run and possibly get the #8 spot to only get swept or run out in 5 games by the Warriors? Even worse, what if you don't make the playoffs but you end up just outside with a bad Lottery pick. Then contrast that with adding a Top-4 pick or maybe getting lucky and getting LeBron-type Ben Simmons or Durant-esque Brandon Ingram to go with Dame after REALLY developing the younger players possibly at the cost of a few wins.

It could go any of those 3 ways. What you don't want to do as a franchise is be in basketball purgatory which is in the middle.

 

[Eastoff]

This team has shown they are at least a star away from a deep play off run.

 

[TBpup]

This team has shown they are at least a star away from a deep play off run.

Quite right....and I think the best chance they have of getting a 'star' is in the Draft. FA'cy has not been kind to the Blazers and no one is trading Portland their star players anytime soon.

 

[Draco]

I want the team to try their hardest to win, if we make a playoff run then I'll be shocked and impressed but if we find ourselves with a good pick that's fine as well.

If we really wanted to try our hardest for the playoffs we could use our cap space to acquire Taj Gibson or a similar veteran. I think that would be a mistake.

 

[42N8Bounce]

I think that's the big question of this year. Being a Blazer fan, I always want to see a good game and the team playing hard. With that being said, after watching them over the first 31 games, it's pretty clear to me that we don't have that 'extra gear' to make a big push for the playoffs. Dame and CJ are clearly our two big guns. But this team isn't going anywhere with only those two. After that, this team is filled with lower end starters and good backups. Do we have anyone on this roster that looks like they could step up and be the third portion of a Big-three? If we do, then that player is years away from making a contribution.

As much as I root for this team to win every game, I think the best thing for this team in the long run is patience. Play hard, but at the same time give the players plenty of development time. I like it that we're starting Vonleh. I'd like to see Harkless get more burn. Let's see what Connaughton has. Let's make sure there are no questions left with Leonard by the end of the year. Pull back on the minutes of Dame and CJ and keep them fresh for the future.

With the Blazers looking more and more like they'll end up in that 4-6 range, I'm okay with that. This is the year to be in the lottery. I think Simmons and Ingram have the potential to be game changers. The #5 spot has an 8.8% chance of getting #1, and a 29.1% chance of getting a top 3 pick. Do we have better odds than that to land a top notch free agent, trade a bunch of mediocre talent for a big name, or internally develop a player? I'm okay with those lottery odds at this point.

 

[handiman]

Unless we make a big trade with immediate dividends, we're not sniffing a playoff push. Yeah, we've got a lot of home games coming up, but February looks brutal. It's not hard to imagine losing to all 11 of those opponents, although I'm sure we'll break through a couple times.

 

[Denny Crane]

Losing is a losing atmosphere.

Play to win, winning atmosphere.

Losing on purpose is not the only way to score draft picks or young players with potential.

Play to win, then sort out your options. Players from a winning program are worth more in trade. I don't see the upside to losing.

 

[TBpup]

Losing is a losing atmosphere.

Play to win, winning atmosphere.

Losing on purpose is not the only way to score draft picks or young players with potential.

Play to win, then sort out your options. Players from a winning program are worth more in trade. I don't see the upside to losing.

It's not to play to lose on purpose but rolling Dame/CJ out there for 36-38 minutes a game jacking up 40 shots between them isn't developing anything for the future. Run more sets for Vonleh, Meyers, Plumlee, Aminu, Harkless and Crabbe and really see what you have in those players. Don't just guess at the end of the year because those players often got less than 5 shots a game. Losses will still come but you'll be much better positioned to know what you actually have and then make decisions from there.

 

[Natebishop3]

Lottery pick please.

 

[Trackjack]

You always play to win but our talent level is not there yet just because of the young players not total develope yet. Players that has come along ways is Crabbe CJ from where they have starter with this franchise. Players that has improve not as much is Myers but to me he playing out position. I think stotts is always what big 7 footer be Dirk sorry about that there only one Dirk Stotts. We did pick up some nice pieces through FA and trade but some of those player need develop. Right now it is being patient and develop and try to play hard and win as many as we can.

 

[KingSpeed]

There's no such thing as basketball purgatory. There are lots of examples of 8 seeds who rose up. Warriors were 6 seed the year before they won the title. Thunder were 8 seed two years before they reached the Finals. Getting the 8 seed doesn't mean we're stuck there forever. For now, I will root for us to win every game. If we're 10 games out come mid March, I'll root for us to lose. I disagree that we should give minutes and play calls to players who have not earned it. CJ and Crabbe earned their playing time. If Vonleh plays better in games and practices, he will get more time. That is the way you run a team.

 

[KingSpeed]

I think that's the big question of this year. Being a Blazer fan, I always want to see a good game and the team playing hard. With that being said, after watching them over the first 31 games, it's pretty clear to me that we don't have that 'extra gear' to make a big push for the playoffs. Dame and CJ are clearly our two big guns. But this team isn't going anywhere with only those two. After that, this team is filled with lower end starters and good backups. Do we have anyone on this roster that looks like they could step up and be the third portion of a Big-three?

Plumlee is our 3rd best right now. I disagree that we need a "Big Three." Spurs didn't have a big 3 two years ago. Warriors had a lot of great players last year but only 2 All Stars. Maybe they'll have 3 this yea but they aren't superstars like Miami's Big 3. 2000-02 Lakers won championships without a Big 3. Mavs won the championship with only 1 star. 2006 Heat didn't have a Big 3. Unless you consider Odom a superstar, the 2009 and 2010 Lakers didn't have a Big 3 either.

 

[TBpup]

There's no such thing as basketball purgatory. There are lots of examples of 8 seeds who rose up. Warriors were 6 seed the year before they won the title. Thunder were 8 seed two years before they reached the Finals. Getting the 8 seed doesn't mean we're stuck there forever. For now, I will root for us to win every game. If we're 10 games out come mid March, I'll root for us to lose. I disagree that we should give minutes and play calls to players who have not earned it. CJ and Crabbe earned their playing time. If Vonleh plays better in games and practices, he will get more time. That is the way you run a team.

"Lots of examples of 8 seeds", then cites a #6 seed who had WAY more talent on it then than what the Blazers have now. Then one example of an #8 seed that has been to the Finals one time and didn't win. Not exactly a history of big success. As for 'basketball purgatory', it absolutely can exists. You are good enough to barely make the playoffs but not good enough to contend and never get a Draft pick to help you get better. The Blazers have basically been in basketball purgatory for 13 of the last 15 years. Memphis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Indiana, Atlanta, Houston, Denver....there are tons of examples of teams that have LIVED in the bad end of the Lottery to #6 seed. An occasional one-year blip is not exactly busting out of that purgatory.

I just know that is NOT where I want Portland to be. They haven't been a contender since 2000 and before that, it was the early 90's. Only in a couple of those years were they really bad to where they could get a really good Lottery pick....and injuries killed that. So since 1979, they have been contenders for maybe 5 years and got a Top 3 pick one time and traded for a Top 3 pick one other time.

THAT is living in purgatory.

 

[42N8Bounce]

Plumlee is our 3rd best right now. I disagree that we need a "Big Three." Spurs didn't have a big 3 two years ago. Warriors had a lot of great players last year but only 2 All Stars. Maybe they'll have 3 this yea but they aren't superstars like Miami's Big 3. 2000-02 Lakers won championships without a Big 3. Mavs won the championship with only 1 star. 2006 Heat didn't have a Big 3. Unless you consider Odom a superstar, the 2009 and 2010 Lakers didn't have a Big 3 either.

I agree that you don't need 3 all-stars, but to make any impact in the playoffs, I think a team needs 3 top level starters. Dame is top level starter no doubt. CJ is proving he belongs in that group. Plumlee is a good starter, but I'd hesitate to call him top level starter. Aminu I consider a good starter, but definitely not top notch. Noah definitely not.

Who on our current roster will progress into a role where they would start for the majority of other team? Other than Dame and CJ, I'd consider the odds less than 8% that any of them will every get to that top level starter role. With the #5 spot having an 8.8% chance of getting #1, and a 29.1% chance of getting a top 3 pick, those look like better betting odds at this point in time.

I still root for this team to win every game they can. I can't help it. I'm a fan. I get caught up in the moment. But when they lose this year, to be honest, I'm not too disappointed.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Winning a championship is highly unlikely. I'd rather the team be as good as possible each year, even if that means being the 8th seed and losing in the first round. Any amount of playoff games are better than no playoff games, always.

 

[ThugginPaulyGAllen]

Draft pick please.

Fuck making the playoffs and losing our draft pick.

Not this year, not this draft. If I get #1, I'm trading it. Ben Simmons is NOT LeBron. Now we have a HUGE asset in a top lotto pick, which we could trade alone or package(if we ended up with a lower pick) for a LEGIT needle mover, ideally a center since free agency doesn't work, the draft is a crapshoot, trades are the only other way to guarantee a big name. Then we have a BOATLOAD of caproom to address other needs, after finding our third 'star'. If we don't get the top pick, great, package it or we could keep it and shoot for the playoffs the following year. This is NOT the year. We are in PRIME position to decide our future. Do. Not. Win.

 

[KingSpeed]

Minnesota has two top picks but are battling for 8 seed. Are they in purgatory too?

 

[KingSpeed]

And as I say all the time, how many top 3 picks take the team who drafted him to the championship? Duncan is the only one since 1998. Point being the top picks leave you and win elsewhere. Look at Aldridge.

 

[BBert]

If the Blazers fight and claw and make the No. 8 seed, that doesn't mean they are de facto poised to rise higher in succeeding years. The point is the Blazers do not have the players on this roster to ever compete for a championship. The puzzle Olshey has to solve is what strategy to pursue to give the franchise the best likelihood of obtaining a roster that can compete in some not too distant future. TBPup summed it up pretty well. Personally, unless a no brainer trade falls into our laps before the deadline, I think we take our opportunities in order, starting with the draft, then free agency, and trades as appropriate.

 

[TBpup]

Minnesota has two top picks but are battling for 8 seed. Are they in purgatory too?

Perfect example. They have 2 potential Superstars and are starting to climb. Towns is already doing things few players his age have accomplished in history. Wiggins is growing into his role and nightly does things that few players can. The Blazers don't have that type of duo and need to add to it. Just because you are at #8 doesn't mean you are in purgatory if you have the talent to grow out of it and be a contender. Minnesota has notoriously been stuck in purgatory but this is the first time they might actually have a chance of climbing out of that.

Most GM's would take their top 2 over our top 2 if they had to choose as much as I love Lillard.

 

[KingSpeed]

Perfect example. They have 2 potential Superstars and are starting to climb. Towns is already doing things few players his age have accomplished in history. Wiggins is growing into his role and nightly does things that few players can. The Blazers don't have that type of duo and need to add to it. Just because you are at #8 doesn't mean you are in purgatory if you have the talent to grow out of it and be a contender. Minnesota has notoriously been stuck in purgatory but this is the first time they might actually have a chance of climbing out of that.

Most GM's would take their top 2 over our top 2 if they had to choose as much as I love Lillard.

Well you make lots of interesting points. I wanted us to make playoffs in 2013 but ending the season on a 13 game losing streak got us CJ so I get that losing helps. If we're 10 games out of the playoffs at the top of March, I'll root for losses and I expect they'd shut down Lillard. BUT if we do make the playoffs, I think we can beat the Warriors. We're a matchup nightmare for them.

 

[TBpup]

Well you make lots of interesting points. I wanted us to make playoffs in 2013 but ending the season on a 13 game losing streak got us CJ so I get that losing helps. If we're 10 games out of the playoffs at the top of March, I'll root for losses and I expect they'd shut down Lillard. BUT if we do make the playoffs, I think we can beat the Warriors. We're a matchup nightmare for them.

I love the optimism but I just don't see how we score with them. It's like Memphis was a bad matchup for us for a couple of years.....nothing we could do. Portland just doesn't have the firepower yet to hang with them for 4 quarters in a pressure situation where they already have experience and we don't.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

There's no such thing as basketball purgatory.

Portland from 1993-94 to 2013-14?

 

[KingSpeed]

Portland from 1993-94 to 2013-14?

Somewhere in there, we made two trips to WCF

 

[BlazerWookee]

Playoffs, and it ain't even a little close. Fuck the lottery.

 

[Natebishop3]

Playoffs, and it ain't even a little close. Fuck the lottery.

Do you remember what it was like getting knocked out in the first round over and over? The Jazz knocked us out two years in a row. The Lakers knocked us out in the first round a couple years in a row. Boy that was SO much fun.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Do you remember what it was like getting knocked out in the first round over and over? The Jazz knocked us out two years in a row. The Lakers knocked us out in the first round a couple years in a row. Boy that was SO much fun.

Better than not making the playoffs.

 

[Denny Crane]

Losing gets you to play like HCP's team, the L*kers.

They tanked for Julius Randle and D'Angelo Russell.

Champs!

I'll take 1st round and out and try to get better in the offseason or internal improvement over that.

 

[Schilly]

I'll take the 8 seed for the rest of my life over making a run at a title but missing the playoffs a year or 2.

 

[Draco]

And as I say all the time, how many top 3 picks take the team who drafted him to the championship? Duncan is the only one since 1998. Point being the top picks leave you and win elsewhere. Look at Aldridge.

From 1985-2014 we've had one team draft a player in the top3 and win a title. Thats 30 years, or 90 picks. So its a 1/90 chance or 1.11% chance a top 3 pick will be here to get us a title.

Considering we're one of 30 teams I'd expect any sort of mediocre average team building strategy to at the least give us a 1 in 30 chance of winning a title. That would be 3.33%.

If you want a championship you should root for the Blazer to NOT get a top3 pick. There is a very strong indicator such a pick will hinder our chances of winning a title.