Playoffs vs #4 Pick

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Draco said:
From 1985-2014 we've had one team draft a player in the top3 and win a title. Thats 30 years, or 90 picks. So its a 1/90 chance or 1.11% chance a top 3 pick will be here to get us a title.

Considering we're one of 30 teams I'd expect any sort of mediocre average team building strategy to at the least give us a 1 in 30 chance of winning a title. That would be 3.33%.

If you want a championship you should root for the Blazer to NOT get a top3 pick. There is a very strong indicator such a pick will hinder our chances of winning a title.
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Well, that works if you like math. However Tim Duncan won 5 of those and going back one year to 1984 gets you MJ and 6.

I'll take 5 or 6 rings.
 
bodyman5000 and 1 said:
Well, that works if you like math. However Tim Duncan won 5 of those and going back one year to 1984 gets you MJ and 6.

I'll take 5 or 6 rings.
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Yeah thanks for proving my point. Its a great strategy if you have the one out of ninety picks who is an all time great and able to build up a cellar dweller to get those titles. Hell I'll throw in MJ and say TWO of ninety one. But for the other EIGHTY NINE times teams used those top 3 picks the strategy failed.

That's a terrible strategy in my opinion. But if you think a two in ninety one chance at multiple rings is the ideal way to build an NBA team; keep rooting for that top3 pick.
 
Draco said:
Yeah thanks for proving my point. Its a great strategy if you have the one out of ninety picks who is an all time great and able to build up a cellar dweller to get those titles. Hell I'll throw in MJ and say TWO of ninety one. But for the other EIGHTY NINE times teams used those top 3 picks the strategy failed.

That's a terrible strategy in my opinion. But if you think a two in ninety one chance at multiple rings is the ideal way to build an NBA team good for you.
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What strategy worked then? Getting Shaq and Kobe or Lebron and Wade?

How are we doing that at all? Are we going to have Hakeem and trade for Clyde?
 
Draco, I think you're being overly creative with the math there. Include MJ and Duncan, then you've got a 31 year window. You really have to eliminate those two guys from the championship window for other top picks, if you want the stats to be at all meaningful. #10 picks weren't winning much against those guys, either... So, your down to 20 years of what the other top picks accounted for.

Also, LeBron counts for a couple titles even if it wasn't for the team that drafted him. I imagine there are a few other top-3 picks somewhere along the line that would fit that bill. I don't see why it matters which team they were on relative to where they were drafted, as far as your point about draft position and championship impact. (And Shaq, like bodyman said.)
 
handiman said:
Draco, I think you're being overly creative with the math there. Include MJ and Duncan, then you've got a 31 year window. You really have to eliminate those two guys from the championship window for other top picks, if you want the stats to be at all meaningful. #10 picks weren't winning much against those guys, either... So, your down to 20 years of what the other top picks accounted for.

Also, LeBron counts for a couple titles even if it wasn't for the team that drafted him. I imagine there are a few other top-3 picks somewhere along the line that would fit that bill. I don't see why it matters which team they were on relative to where they were drafted, as far as your point about draft position and championship impact. (And Shaq, like bodyman said.)
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I'd like to see a team full of second rounders compete with any of those teams. And you sure as hell aren't going to draft them yourself and have them compete.

I think modern tech is our best chance. Put Meyer's brain in a small guy and put Bill Russell's in Meyer's body.
 
Also, with the '84-15 or '85-15 window of championships and top-3 picks being looked at, it's completely meaningless if you don't include top-3 picks prior to '84/85 who won championships during that period. So, that's at least 4 more down with Isiah and Hakeem. I'm not sure without research how many LA/Boston also account for. But, we're quickly getting to the point where you have to look at how many teams won during that period without a top-3 pick.

An all-star team of 2nd round picks would be interesting, for sure.
 
handiman said:
Also, with the '84-15 or '85-15 window of championships and top-3 picks being looked at, it's completely meaningless if you don't include top-3 picks prior to '84/85 who won championships during that period. So, that's at least 4 more down with Isiah and Hakeem. I'm not sure without research how many LA/Boston also account for. But, we're quickly getting to the point where you have to look at how many teams won during that period without a top-3 pick.

An all-star team of 2nd round picks would be interesting, for sure.
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Yep--Magic was first overall in '79 and win titles in '85, '87, & '88, so if we're evaluating the past 31 years, those would need to be included too, as would the Celts title in '86 with McHale (3rd overall 1980).

In fact, from '84-'99, EVERY NBA title was won by a team led by a player drafted by that franchise in the top 3. Since 2000, however, only the Spurs' titles fit that criterion. It's been a completely different NBA this millennium.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Yep--Magic was first overall in '79 and win titles in '85, '87, & '88, so if we're evaluating the past 31 years, those would need to be included too, as would the Celts title in '86 with McHale (3rd overall 1980).

In fact, from '84-'99, EVERY NBA title was won by a team led by a player drafted by that franchise in the top 3. Since 2000, however, only the Spurs' titles fit that criterion. It's been a completely different NBA this millennium.
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Not surprising with free agency really exploding in the 2000's. Before that you rarely had a marquee player jump ship and go to another team.
 
How many top three picks made it to the finals but didn't win? I would take a shot at a championship.

That would add iverson, durant, and a few others.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I thought about it a bit more, and I believe every NBA champion during that period has had a top-3 pick on the roster. Some are less obvious, like Bogut in GS, Chandler in Dallas, Gasol in LA, Billups in Detroit, etc.
 
It can't just be about winning the championship. It's also about getting the opportunity to win the championship. Plenty of top three picks have gotten their team to the show, they just didn't walk away with the hardware.

Durant with the Thunder.

James with the Cavs (twice)

Iverson with the Sixers.

Ewing with the Knicks.

Shaq with the Magic.

Those players were drafted in the top three and they made a huge difference in getting their team an opportunity at a ring. Shaq lost to Hakeem. Ewing lost to Hakeem. Iverson lost to Shaq and Kobe. LeBron lost to Duncan. Durant lost to LeBron. It's a crap shoot, but at least they got there.
 
btw Powerball is up to $300,000,000 right now.
 
I don't have anything against getting a top-4 pick. If that's the way the season breaks down and the Blazers get a pick in that range, I'll be excited. That said, I do not believe in tanking as a team-building program...at least not at this stage of the season. If you get to the point where you're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and resting "injuries" might improve your chances of a better pick, then sure, rest your stars. Otherwise, play the game to win. There are many paths to getting to contending status.

The way I look at it, if their respective drafts were re-done, both Dame and CJ would be top-3 picks so it can be argued that the Blazers already have the major building blocks in place to build a contender. Picking up another top-tier player, whether by draft, trade or free agency, is all that is necessary to move the Blazers into contending status. I'd rather the players we have learn the right way of playing to win, gain playoff experience even if it's a one-and-done 8th seed exit, and know that management has faith in their abilities as players, than put them through a demoralizing intentional losing situation. Philadelphia seems committed to that path and so far it's getting them nowhere. The Clippers did that for years and got nothing for it but a sleazy profits for Donald Sterling. Play the damned game to win and let things play out as they will.
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Yep--Magic was first overall in '79 and win titles in '85, '87, & '88, so if we're evaluating the past 31 years, those would need to be included too, as would the Celts title in '86 with McHale (3rd overall 1980).

In fact, from '84-'99, EVERY NBA title was won by a team led by a player drafted by that franchise in the top 3. Since 2000, however, only the Spurs' titles fit that criterion. It's been a completely different NBA this millennium.
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It has changed but top players still get to the Finals. Maybe it is by FA'cy (LeBron to Miami) or like Kobe demanding to be traded to LA. So in that case, is Portland going to get that type of player to come here via FA'cy or demand? Sadly, the answer is likely no. So you have to build through trades and the Draft. This was the year to get that Draft pick. Next year they will be more developed and out of Lottery contention especially as the West is in decline. You get that special player to combine with Dame/CJ and then dominate for years in the West.
 
Being content to always be an 8 seed is like only every ordering Coors light. Theres zero risk, you feel like you are drinking beer, you get what you get, are never really dissappointed, but also never really taste a good aromatic flavorful beer.

And just so you know just missing the playoffs year in and year out is like the bottom 1/3 of a PBR tallboy, getting warm and like licking an armpit.
 
Schilly said:
Being content to always be an 8 seed is like only every ordering Coors light. Theres zero risk, you feel like you are drinking beer, you get what you get, are never really dissappointed, but also never really taste a good aromatic flavorful beer.

And just so you know just missing the playoffs year in and year out is like the bottom 1/3 of a PBR tallboy, getting warm and like licking an armpit.
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And getting Ben Simmons is like drinking a fine single malt!
 
Schilly said:
Being content to always be an 8 seed is like only every ordering Coors light. Theres zero risk, you feel like you are drinking beer, you get what you get, are never really dissappointed, but also never really taste a good aromatic flavorful beer.

And just so you know just missing the playoffs year in and year out is like the bottom 1/3 of a PBR tallboy, getting warm and like licking an armpit.
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Why does everyone think that if we are number 8 this year we will remain at number 8 for eternity?

Does everyone have short timer syndrome around here? This isnt a fast food sport people. Players evolve, get better, get worse, etc. We are loaded with players still on the upside. We have tons of cash to spend. If we end up #8 this year without making any moves, we are in a great position to make moves with players who have improved, causing their value to increase. We have cash. There are many options to make sure we don't stay mediocre if we ARE mediocre this year.

We were expected to be a cellar team, so wouldn't mediocre be overachieving, leaving for a bright future????????????????????????????????????
 
Orion Bailey said:
Why does everyone think that if we are number 8 this year we will remain at number 8 for eternity?

Does everyone have short timer syndrome around here? This isnt a fast food sport people. Players evolve, get better, get worse, etc. We are loaded with players still on the upside. We have tons of cash to spend. If we end up #8 this year without making any moves, we are in a great position to make moves with players who have improved, causing their value to increase. We have cash. There are many options to make sure we don't stay mediocre if we ARE mediocre this year.

We were expected to be a cellar team, so wouldn't mediocre be overachieving, leaving for a bright future????????????????????????????????????
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Players do evolve but it is rare when a mid-1st round player becomes a Superstar and that is what is needed to win championships....if that is indeed the goal, or at least compete for one. This was the year to have a chance at that pick. They will be better next year most likely but how much better and on what path? Certainly some of the current players will develop but I'm wanting it to be on the path to a Top-2 WCF which it's been a LONG TIME since Portland was anywhere near that. I never thought they were a cellar team but the difference between #5 and #10 may only be a few worthless wins.

Almost everyone will have money this next summer so that minimizes Portland's advantage in that area. By this summer, we could be looking at a big time building block that helps us get to contender status or a nice piece that helps us get back to that #4-6 playoff range. Nice....but not really the long term goal.
 
Eric Bledsoe is out for the year, which means another team vying for a playoff spot falls to the wayside and there's now even more competition for a high lottery pick.
 
TBpup said:
Players do evolve but it is rare when a mid-1st round player becomes a Superstar and that is what is needed to win championships....if that is indeed the goal, or at least compete for one. This was the year to have a chance at that pick. They will be better next year most likely but how much better and on what path? Certainly some of the current players will develop but I'm wanting it to be on the path to a Top-2 WCF which it's been a LONG TIME since Portland was anywhere near that. I never thought they were a cellar team but the difference between #5 and #10 may only be a few worthless wins.

Almost everyone will have money this next summer so that minimizes Portland's advantage in that area. By this summer, we could be looking at a big time building block that helps us get to contender status or a nice piece that helps us get back to that #4-6 playoff range. Nice....but not really the long term goal.
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But that's my point. We have that in Dame already. CJ is looking to be our second star. And I think your wrong. I think this is the long term plan. If we are in the 4-6 playoff range next year, then we can trade for the couple of pcs to put us over the edge.
 
Orion Bailey said:
But that's my point. We have that in Dame already. CJ is looking to be our second star. And I think your wrong. I think this is the long term plan. If we are in the 4-6 playoff range next year, then we can trade for the couple of pcs to put us over the edge.
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Dame is a star and CJ may become one but neither is that 'superstar' level yet and that is usually who leads teams to contender status. That's all I'm saying. Yes they are rare but you just don't get those guys in a trade unless they demand to go there and they aren't lining up to come to Portland via a forced trade or FA'cy. I'm not looking to argue, just what piece you could get that would put a #4-6 team over the top?
 
TBpup said:
Dame is a star and CJ may become one but neither is that 'superstar' level yet and that is usually who leads teams to contender status. That's all I'm saying. Yes they are rare but you just don't get those guys in a trade unless they demand to go there and they aren't lining up to come to Portland via a forced trade or FA'cy. I'm not looking to argue, just what piece you could get that would put a #4-6 team over the top?
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Nah, Im with ya, good debate.
Im not sure either, but I think it would start with figuring out who we can sell that wouldnt hurt us much, while maximizing the player we recieve in helping us become better.

I dont think there is an answer either way, but I think it could start with standing pat... letting Hendo get his feet under him to improve his stock this year. Sign and trade him along with Leonard, cash and possibly Vonleh for someone. Thing is, I would like Paul George like Riverman, but then that means we need to figure out who of CJ and/or Crabbe would we get rid of. If we get rid of CJ, we lose his production, so is gaining George going to really get us that much better when we are giving up our second best player?

Really tough situation because of all the variables and X factors.

To me what I think this team needs the most is better interior defense and pick and roll guys. Better rebounding in the paint.
I think we would benefit the most from trying to find a guy like David West believe it or not.
 
Orion Bailey said:
There are many options to make sure we don't stay mediocre if we ARE mediocre this year.
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There are many options, for sure. And for the Blazers, currently, a high lotto pick is one of them. Why lose that opportunity? I believe this is the last draft we are going to have that opportunity for a long time. :)
 
Orion Bailey said:
Nah, Im with ya, good debate.
I dont think there is an answer either way, but I think it could start with standing pat... letting Hendo get his feet under him to improve his stock this year. Sign and trade him along with Leonard, cash and possibly Vonleh for someone. Thing is, I would like Paul George like Riverman, but then that means we need to figure out who of CJ and/or Crabbe would we get rid of. If we get rid of CJ, we lose his production, so is gaining George going to really get us that much better when we are giving up our second best player?

Really tough situation because of all the variables and X factors.

To me what I think this team needs the most is better interior defense and pick and roll guys. Better rebounding in the paint.
I think we would benefit the most from trying to find a guy like David West believe it or not.
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Since the new CBA, there really aren't S&T's anymore because they took out the advantage of signing your own player to more money and then moving him. I don't think there has been one since they did that. If you want to get anything for Henderson, it will most likely have to be by the deadline.

I agree about the interior defense and rebounding for sure.
 
BBert said:
There are many options, for sure. And for the Blazers, currently, a high lotto pick is one of them. Why lose that opportunity? I believe this is the last draft we are going to have that opportunity for a long time. :)
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Why? Because that means that our current roster didn't improve like we thought. So instead of 5-7 players who have improved, we have 5-7 players that suck with one lotto pick. Id rather have the 5-7 players that improve to be part of the long term plan or be moved while value is high.

I just am at a loss as to why people would prefer to have 1 POTENTIAL lotto pick tossed in with an all star and a bunch of scrubs over 5-7 improved role players that can be part of a long term plan and/or moved for pcs to the long term plan while their value is high?
Id much rather have the 5-7 players. Give us more flexibility.
 
Orion Bailey said:
Why? Because that means that our current roster didn't improve like we thought. So instead of 5-7 players who have improved, we have 5-7 players that suck with one lotto pick. Id rather have the 5-7 players that improve to be part of the long term plan or be moved while value is high.

I just am at a loss as to why people would prefer to have 1 POTENTIAL lotto pick tossed in with an all star and a bunch of scrubs over 5-7 improved role players that can be part of a long term plan and/or moved for pcs to the long term plan while their value is high?
Id much rather have the 5-7 players. Give us more flexibility.
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Not making the playoffs doesn't mean necessarily that we didn't improve. Not many people thought this team was good enough to make the playoffs this season, so I'm not sure why you think that's that measuring stick.
 
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